Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Ryan Mountcastle 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

57 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

True. It is still early. If he continues to struggle then the conversation obviously shifts but we are not even a month into the season. I caught one his at bats yesterday on the Orioles broadcast. They were talking about how the book on him is that he will chase anything so pitchers won't throw him strikes and until he improves his discipline this will continue. So they know what he has to do to to correct things and Jim Palmer noted Mountcastle has no track record but has good hitting and power tools.

He wouldn't be the first player to rake upon arrival in the majors only to slump when pitchers adjust to him. The question is can he adjust in response and succeed? His pedigree says yes but he will have to prove it on the field. If you have him in redraft he isn't rosterable right now but in dynasty he is still a hold in my view.

Agree with your assessment.  Salary cap leagues are the toughest - very much going to be format dependent whether he is worth rostering / holding in those leagues.  

From a skills perspective, it is disappointing that with pitchers refusing to throw him strikes that he has only walked 4 times.  If guys aren't going to give you anything to hit in an extreme way, you'd expect that walk rate to jump up if the guy has any sense but he is still sitting at a 25:4 K/BB ratio.  Maybe it is a good sign that he has walked twice in his last 3 games (because the 21:2 ratio before then was even worse).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/20/2021 at 1:35 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Oh you mean fantasy managers dropping.  I don't give a fig if everyone drops a really good player.  Just more chance I can pick him up.  And like Ace King said, he has been up for some time.  Did well enough last season.  He isn't some greenhorn anymore.

As for 100,000 O's fans watching TV.  They don't care.  They know the team stinks and especially the pitching outside of the stellar mean Mr Means.  They aren't screaming for Mountcastle's head any more than Sox fans are for Dalbec's because both players have gotten off to slow starts in their second year up after doing well in their first.  The sophomore jinx and all aside, fans love to see the young guys grow into their roles.

I can tell you Dalbec can do no wrong around Boston fans even though he is scuffling out of the gate.  I can only imagine O's fans feel the same about Mountcastle.  Granted Dalbec can field pretty well in addition but fans don't care about that issue too much.  They want to watch the young power guys at the plate and dream of tomorrow.

What’s your argument here?  That he couldn’t possibly benefit from being sent down?

As far as him not being a greenhorn, he has 55 MLB games played. That’s still pretty green.

 And, by fWAR, he’s been almost as bad this year as he was good last year.

 He wouldn’t be the first guy to be sent down to adjust to the adjustments, or just be a 30-some game flash in the pan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agree with your assessment.  Salary cap leagues are the toughest - very much going to be format dependent whether he is worth rostering / holding in those leagues.  

From a skills perspective, it is disappointing that with pitchers refusing to throw him strikes that he has only walked 4 times.  If guys aren't going to give you anything to hit in an extreme way, you'd expect that walk rate to jump up if the guy has any sense but he is still sitting at a 25:4 K/BB ratio.  Maybe it is a good sign that he has walked twice in his last 3 games (because the 21:2 ratio before then was even worse).

Yeah, and he walked during the at bat where Palmer was talking about that issue so hopefully the message has gotten through. If he can continue being disciplined he will get more hittable balls and we know he has the skills to capitalize on that. His track record in the minors is solid as well. He is a career .295 hitter in the minors, including .312 and a .871 OPS in 127 games in AAA. There are no guarantees with any player this young but he seems like a good bet to make necessary adjustments and have success down the stretch this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/26/2021 at 10:58 AM, Ace_King said:

True. It is still early. If he continues to struggle then the conversation obviously shifts but we are not even a month into the season. I caught one his at bats yesterday on the Orioles broadcast. They were talking about how the book on him is that he will chase anything so pitchers won't throw him strikes and until he improves his discipline this will continue. So they know what he has to do to to correct things and Jim Palmer noted Mountcastle has no track record but has good hitting and power tools.

He wouldn't be the first player to rake upon arrival in the majors only to slump when pitchers adjust to him. The question is can he adjust in response and succeed? His pedigree says yes but he will have to prove it on the field. If you have him in redraft he isn't rosterable right now but in dynasty he is still a hold in my view.

Hmmm, this article says the exact opposite...


"Mountcastle struck out 21.4 percent of the time in 2020, and it’s up to 32.5 percent now. The easiest explanation for this would be an over-eagerness at the plate and difficulty at laying off pitches out of the zone, but that hasn’t been the culprit. Mountcastle’s chase percentage is down from 40.1 percent to 37.5, and his zone percentage is up nearly three points from 45.8 to 48.6. Pitchers are challenging him as often as they did, and when they go out of the zone, he’s been no more likely to bite.

The alarming numbers come from the pitches that are actually in the strike zone; Mountcastle just hasn’t been hitting them. His whiff rate on fastballs is up from 21.4 to 30 percent. Offspeed pitches have given him a particularly tough time, as he’s gone from swinging and missing 32.4 percent of the time to 54.5. That’s not a good place to be."

https://www.camdenchat.com/2021/4/27/22405075/orioles-ryan-mountcastle-slow-start

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last year he had 42 hits in 126 ABs (all in the Summer). This year he has 18 hits in 91 ABs in the cooler weather. He needs to go 24 for 35 to match 2020 numbers. (Would like to have him rostered if that happens - LOL)

Gotta say that aint happening, but he could come closer to a low .275 avg over the season but he has a steep hill to climb.

His 2020 .333 avg and his 2021 .200 avg are miles apart and I am not chasing that 2020 carrot anymore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He has gotten on base for 9 straight games now (.250 BA, 2 BBs 9Ks in 34 PAs) after starting out .177 BA, 2 BBs, 21 Ks. in 65 PAs

Just be aware he is improving by the day. Today he has single, lineout and flyout after a 2 hit day yesterday. The power will come soon IMO.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

He has gotten on base for 9 straight games now (.250 BA, 2 BBs 9Ks in 34 PAs) after starting out .177 BA, 2 BBs, 21 Ks. in 65 PAs

Just be aware he is improving by the day. Today he has single, lineout and flyout after a 2 hit day yesterday. The power will come soon IMO.

Yeah he is. The issue is the power hasn't been there but hopefully that turns around soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

He has batted 0.306 over his past 13 games, albeit with a 15:1 K-BB ratio as his seasonal BA has risen from .167 to .223. The power still hasn't appeared, leading to a 0.742 OPS during this span. Green shoots or just a random stretch of fairly good games?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

Are we starting to see him turning it around & becoming fantasy useful (what we thought he would be this year)?

.324 BA/.333 OBP/.892OPS/2 homers/5 RBI in the month of May.

He's needed a BABIP of .429 in May to get these numbers. Seems quite unsustainable.

He hasn't fixed the BB/K issue at all. It was 4/30 in April and stands at 1/11 in May. It's hard to imagine any sort of continued success with that going on.

I cut bait 2 weeks ago in a 12 teamer and no one has touched him yet.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Mountcastle has been showing signs of life after an atrocious start to the season. In his last 31 games he has a .283 BA and a .789 OPS with a per 162 pace of 27 HR, 95 RBI, and 58 R. He has been even better over the last 21 as those numbers are .289 BA, .878 OPS with a per 162 pace of 39 HR, 132 RBI, 70 R. That said, these numbers are aided by cherry picking from his low points but 31 games is a decent sample for him (36% of his career) and he basically has played 4 months in his career and was terrible for only 1 of them. Here are his "career" OPS numbers by month:

August: 0.981 (9 games)

September: 0.841 (26 games)

April: 0.515 (25 games)

May: 0.748 (24 games)

In two June games his OPS is at 1.500.

Anyone climbing back abroad the Mountcastle train, or if you never left, are you encouraged by his recent performance or do you think all of this is just a fluke?

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ace_King said:

Mountcastle has been showing signs of life after an atrocious start to the season. In his last 31 games he has a .283 BA and a .789 OPS with a per 162 pace of 27 HR, 95 RBI, and 58 R. He has been even better over the last 21 as those numbers are .289 BA, .878 OPS with a per 162 pace of 39 HR, 132 RBI, 70 R. That said, these numbers are aided by cherry picking from his low points but 31 games is a decent sample for him (36% of his career) and he basically has played 4 months in his career and was terrible for only 1 of them. Here are his "career" OPS numbers by month:

August: 0.981 (9 games)

September: 0.841 (26 games)

April: 0.515 (25 games)

May: 0.748 (24 games)

In two June games his OPS is at 1.500.

Anyone climbing back abroad the Mountcastle train, or if you never left, are you encouraged by his recent performance or do you think all of this is just a fluke?

 

 

 

I like what he’s doing, the O’s should play every day to let him develop. I just grabbed him to replace Kyle Lewis.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/3/2021 at 10:50 AM, Ace_King said:

Mountcastle has been showing signs of life after an atrocious start to the season. In his last 31 games he has a .283 BA and a .789 OPS with a per 162 pace of 27 HR, 95 RBI, and 58 R. He has been even better over the last 21 as those numbers are .289 BA, .878 OPS with a per 162 pace of 39 HR, 132 RBI, 70 R. That said, these numbers are aided by cherry picking from his low points but 31 games is a decent sample for him (36% of his career) and he basically has played 4 months in his career and was terrible for only 1 of them. Here are his "career" OPS numbers by month:

August: 0.981 (9 games)

September: 0.841 (26 games)

April: 0.515 (25 games)

May: 0.748 (24 games)

In two June games his OPS is at 1.500.

Anyone climbing back abroad the Mountcastle train, or if you never left, are you encouraged by his recent performance or do you think all of this is just a fluke?

 

 

 

My biggest worry is still that K/BB ratio.  Over the last 28 days (just my easy sorting point but maybe not so far off from the 31 games above), he has 26 K's against 2 BB's.  I've got lots of OF injuries and I still just don't know if I can get behind him again.  On the season he is 62:7 so this really hasn't changed this year.  Last year's 30:11 wasn't great but it was much better than what we've seen from him this season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good point. That is a cause for concern. It just seems to be part of who he is. In AAA (127 games) he had a 130:24 ratio. He managed to hit .312 with a .871 OPS so no one cared but it is a red flag for sure. I suppose we would just need to hope his bat is good enough that he can hit .280 with an OPS of .850 or so despite his poor approach. Ideally he improves on it but it doesn't look like he will do so anytime soon. He basically has played half a full season's worth of games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, AHF said:

My biggest worry is still that K/BB ratio.  Over the last 28 days (just my easy sorting point but maybe not so far off from the 31 games above), he has 26 K's against 2 BB's.  I've got lots of OF injuries and I still just don't know if I can get behind him again.  On the season he is 62:7 so this really hasn't changed this year.  Last year's 30:11 wasn't great but it was much better than what we've seen from him this season.

He started in a slump and when you do that players press and strikeout even more.

In 126 ABs last year he had an OBP of .386 so he can get that K-ing and not walking aspect of his game under control.  With him climbing out of his slump finally I think you will see his OBP start to get better again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He continues to roll. In his last 33 games he is batting .292 with a .857 OPS and a per 162 pace of 35 HR, 104 RBI and 64 R. If we use May 1 as the cutoff he is at .287 BA, .889 OPS and 41 HR, 122 RBI, and 76 R per 162. He looks like the player we drafted and at this point the narrative flips IMO to he simply had one bad month and it was magnified because it happened to be the first month of the season.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/4/2021 at 6:00 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

He started in a slump and when you do that players press and strikeout even more.

In 126 ABs last year he had an OBP of .386 so he can get that K-ing and not walking aspect of his game under control.  With him climbing out of his slump finally I think you will see his OBP start to get better again.

It is definitely fair to point out that he is striking out less often recently even if his K:BB ratio is still ghastly during that period.  For example, his last 6 games have a terrible 6:0 ratio but 6 k's over 6 games is probably the most you can hope for.  Based on how he has been playing lately, the ratio could be said to be more a reflection of him just not walking rather than an indication of excessive strike outs.  It is still something I'm going to monitor on him but probably better to focus on the strikeout metrics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember one prospects analyst projecting Mountcastle to have an above average BA but an average OBP, which obviously means he would be subpar in terms of walks. In his brief career he has lived up to that. He is a career .285 hitter (the 2021 league average is .237) with a .324 OBP (the 2021 league average is .312). So he is a big plus in BA but basically at the league average in OBP. In fantasy terms the picture shifts somewhat since the average rostered fantasy player>the league average so in fantasy terms he would still be an asset in BA, just less so, and he presumably is subpar in OBP. So his value varies a bit based on league format. He probably is most valuable in H2H points formats where his averages don't count, only his counting stats (granted, there is some correlation--a higher BA=more hits, a higher OBP=more R, etc. but it isn't the same impact as if it were a standalone category like in roto). He has power and has shown to be an adept RBI producer (96 RBI per 162 pace in his career).

I'm expecting something like a .280+ BA with 30+ HR power and lots of RBIs as a #4 or #5 hitter from him with an average OBP. If he can improve his approach to where he walks more I would consider that gravy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...