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Tony Gonsolin 2021 Outlook


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Josiah Gray's ETA was to be this year but not this early.  Probably second half.  But he is a top rated prospect so who knows.   Will the Dodgers throw him out there for a few weeks at least while they wait for Gonsolin?  My guess is Jimmy Nelson was a former starter if not a very good one and the Dodgers may not want to risk Gray up this soon.  As a Gray owner I don't want him messed up coming up too early but I'd also like to see him pitch a few games at least.

Weird that the Dodgers' two reserves are injured at the same time.  They usually have problems finding enough innings for their herd of starters.

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Dave Roberts was asked again yesterday about the possibility of Trevor Bauer starting on short rest and he said that was also being considered as a possibility. Whichever way they go, clearly Gonsolin isn't in the plan for the next month or so. 

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Gonsolin > Gray. Now and long term IMO. I could be wrong about that for sure, but that's my opinion as someone who follows the Dodgers and prospects closely.  I think Gray hasn't debuted yet so some see him as some future Ace the dodgers are holding back and he's #1 on some Dodgers prospect lists, but I'm not even sure if he's their best pitching prospect.  Gonsolin has already been in the majors, had some success, was pretty bad in the playoffs, but I think his upside is understated and now muted because he's not technically a prospect any more. There was a lot of buzz he was showing front of the rotation upside.

Assuming health, Gonsolin has a much upside as most prospect pitchers you're stashing.  I dont not like Gray or something, I would just put my eggs in the Gonsolin basket of the two of them.  Even for next year.

 

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22 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Gonsolin > Gray. Now and long term IMO. I could be wrong about that for sure, but that's my opinion as someone who follows the Dodgers and prospects closely.  I think Gray hasn't debuted yet so some see him as some future Ace the dodgers are holding back and he's #1 on some Dodgers prospect lists, but I'm not even sure if he's their best pitching prospect.  Gonsolin has already been in the majors, had some success, was pretty bad in the playoffs, but I think his upside is understated and now muted because he's not technically a prospect any more. There was a lot of buzz he was showing front of the rotation upside.

Assuming health, Gonsolin has a much upside as most prospect pitchers you're stashing.  I dont not like Gray or something, I would just put my eggs in the Gonsolin basket of the two of them.  Even for next year.

 


Gonsolin does seem to be flying under the radar. He was the dodgers second best pitcher last year after Kershaw. A career 2.60 ERA (3.02 FIP). Solid fastball paired with absolutely fantastic off-speed offerings in the Splitter, Slider and Curve. Plus command. He's been the victim of dodgeritis, but with May going down, as long as hes healthy, Gonsolin should be a great add.

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2 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:


Gonsolin does seem to be flying under the radar. He was the dodgers second best pitcher last year after Kershaw. A career 2.60 ERA (3.02 FIP). Solid fastball paired with absolutely fantastic off-speed offerings in the Splitter, Slider and Curve. Plus command. He's been the victim of dodgeritis, but with May going down, as long as hes healthy, Gonsolin should be a great add.

It's also interesting to me that in draft season people are willing to draft and reserve injured pitchers coming off of TJS and mid-season are unwilling to do the same for IL pitchers. I would much rather have Gonsolin than any of the 2021 TJ returners at this point. 

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I also think it’s worth noting that they have been letting Urias pitch deep into games after babying him for a long while. I would not be surprised if they were going to give Gonsolin the same opportunity if he performs well 

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On 5/4/2021 at 10:07 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Gonsolin > Gray. Now and long term IMO. I could be wrong about that for sure, but that's my opinion as someone who follows the Dodgers and prospects closely.  I think Gray hasn't debuted yet so some see him as some future Ace the dodgers are holding back and he's #1 on some Dodgers prospect lists, but I'm not even sure if he's their best pitching prospect.  Gonsolin has already been in the majors, had some success, was pretty bad in the playoffs, but I think his upside is understated and now muted because he's not technically a prospect any more. There was a lot of buzz he was showing front of the rotation upside.

Assuming health, Gonsolin has a much upside as most prospect pitchers you're stashing.  I dont not like Gray or something, I would just put my eggs in the Gonsolin basket of the two of them.  Even for next year.

 

Well Gray certainly had an excellent debut, maybe he has competition.   Gonsolin needs to be healthy first and foremost.

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Roberts said hes 3-4 weeks away on may 2nd.  that puts him around the 23rd of this month.  i just stashed him.  WW in my league is VERY thin for pitching, easy choice IMO.

 

Fip was 2.29 last year with about a k per inning.  looks like he also added about 1.5 mph to his 4 seam last year.

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On 5/7/2021 at 12:11 PM, jfazz23 said:

Roberts said hes 3-4 weeks away on may 2nd.  that puts him around the 23rd of this month.  i just stashed him.  WW in my league is VERY thin for pitching, easy choice IMO.

 

Fip was 2.29 last year with about a k per inning.  looks like he also added about 1.5 mph to his 4 seam last year.

 

Is Gonso a game changer in roto if healthy and starting?

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1 hour ago, rotoguy74 said:

 

Is Gonso a game changer in roto if healthy and starting?

its hard to tell based on a small sample size of 2020 and 2019

 

i highy doubt hes a game changer, but he could be a competent 3 or 4 is what im hoping for

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Per FG's pitch values, last year Gonsolin had an 11.3 FB(5th best), and a 4.8 SL(15th best). A few similar one's last year Bauer 12.7/7.6, Woodruff 12.8/2.7. Bauer and Woodruff are grading out similarly this year as well, so if he comes back with a similar arsenal, he'll be well worth the wait. If Gonsolin's split is as good as it's prospect grade(70) then he could be very good, and he also has a serviceable curve. Really he just needs to be around 95 with the FB and throw strikes. 

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6 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Per FG's pitch values, last year Gonsolin had an 11.3 FB(5th best), and a 4.8 SL(15th best). A few similar one's last year Bauer 12.7/7.6, Woodruff 12.8/2.7. Bauer and Woodruff are grading out similarly this year as well, so if he comes back with a similar arsenal, he'll be well worth the wait. If Gonsolin's split is as good as it's prospect grade(70) then he could be very good, and he also has a serviceable curve. Really he just needs to be around 95 with the FB and throw strikes. 

Damn, maybe he could be a game changer then. Thanks for info 

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I picked him up over the weekend.  If by chance he is still out there on the wire in your league you would be wise to make the move now.  There are no guarantees with pitching, young pitching no less, but this kid has the goods and the Dodgers should be a 100 win(ish) team so a free arm with this upside will be hard to find going forward.

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Bit of a bummer to see him moved to the 60 day IL with the Pujols signing but shouldn’t affect the timeline too much.

Soonest he will be eligible to return is 5/31 and if he progresses well I would think he is with the team on or very near that date. 
 

June is a month with mostly good matchups for the Dodgers so he is definitely a solid hold for me at this point. Hoping he pays big second half dividends. 

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10 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Bit of a bummer to see him moved to the 60 day IL with the Pujols signing but shouldn’t affect the timeline too much.

Soonest he will be eligible to return is 5/31 and if he progresses well I would think he is with the team on or very near that date. 
 

June is a month with mostly good matchups for the Dodgers so he is definitely a solid hold for me at this point. Hoping he pays big second half dividends. 

does suck, but hes throwing 3 innings middle of this week....they will probably build him up to 85 pitches.  he probably wouldnt have been ready before the 31st anyways. i expect him 2nd week of june or so unless there is a setback

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11 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Bit of a bummer to see him moved to the 60 day IL with the Pujols signing but shouldn’t affect the timeline too much.

Soonest he will be eligible to return is 5/31 and if he progresses well I would think he is with the team on or very near that date. 
 

June is a month with mostly good matchups for the Dodgers so he is definitely a solid hold for me at this point. Hoping he pays big second half dividends. 

I was more or less expecting that timeline.  He would have been on a pretty noticeable innings limit even if he started the year as the 5th starter in April.  The ceiling/floor is really high for a guy that fis only 40% owned in yahoo.  Because he's sp6/7in LA, I get the feeling that people think of him as an sp6/7 in fantasy.  That ownership will skyrocket once the cats out of the bag.  Better to be a week early than a minute late.

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45 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I was more or less expecting that timeline.  He would have been on a pretty noticeable innings limit even if he started the year as the 5th starter in April.  The ceiling/floor is really high for a guy that fis only 40% owned in yahoo.  Because he's sp6/7in LA, I get the feeling that people think of him as an sp6/7 in fantasy.  That ownership will skyrocket once the cats out of the bag.  Better to be a week early than a minute late.

Yeah he’ll be closer to 60-70% owned in a couple weeks. If you’ve got the IL spot he’s a great stash for anyone who needs some pitching. I owned him last year and although it was a sss he was very valuable. His arsenal only makes him more intriguing regardless of whether you believe the sample size or not. 

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50 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I was more or less expecting that timeline.  He would have been on a pretty noticeable innings limit even if he started the year as the 5th starter in April.  The ceiling/floor is really high for a guy that fis only 40% owned in yahoo.  Because he's sp6/7in LA, I get the feeling that people think of him as an sp6/7 in fantasy.  That ownership will skyrocket once the cats out of the bag.  Better to be a week early than a minute late.

I like him but I feel his ceiling won't be as high as you think because the dodgers are gonna monitor his innings all season

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8 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

I like him but I feel his ceiling won't be as high as you think because the dodgers are gonna monitor his innings all season

i mean, if he comes back 1st week of june his innings will already be limited...

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He's owned in all my leagues.  You better jump now or you will be running the risk of losing an opportunity to snag him.   This move doesn't really change his trajectory.   They're going to build him up with caution and not rush him, so June 1st eligibility was likely the best case to begin with.  I have high hopes for him if he can stay healthy.  He should be a good SP for wins and ratios with that team.

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From CBS:

Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin: Making first rehab start Sunday

Gonsolin (shoulder) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, Oklahoma City Dodgers broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.

The 27-year-old is expected to throw two innings during his first rehab appearance as he builds up his stamina. The Dodgers previously indicated they want Gonsolin stretched out to at least four innings before being activated from the injured list, so he's poised to make a few starts in the minors.

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3 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

From CBS:

Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin: Making first rehab start Sunday

Gonsolin (shoulder) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, Oklahoma City Dodgers broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.

The 27-year-old is expected to throw two innings during his first rehab appearance as he builds up his stamina. The Dodgers previously indicated they want Gonsolin stretched out to at least four innings before being activated from the injured list, so he's poised to make a few starts in the minors.

shhhh LOL ---- trying to sneak in and grab him before anyone else does. thanks for the info! saw it earlier but didnt get to post it yet. i like what he has to offer for the second half of the season!

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Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin: Efficient in first rehab start

Gonsolin (shoulder) tossed three scoreless frames in his rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Oklahoma City. He gave up one hit (a double) and struck out three while walking none over his 38-pitch appearance.

The Dodgers initially planned for Gonsolin to cover only two innings in his first rehab outing, but because he was economical with his pitch count over the initial two frames, he was allowed to work an extra inning. Gonsolin looked about as sharp as the Dodgers could have hoped in his first game action of the season, and he should be cleared to push his pitch count above 50 when he makes his second rehab start later this week. Gonsolin appears on track to return from the 60-day injured list and join the big-league rotation at some point in early June.

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