Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Tony Gonsolin 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, jdizzle said:

Looked good but will thru ever allow him to work deep into a game? Only 4ip again

 

2 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

And just 69 pitches. Disappointing. Hopefully they're just still being cautious over the shoulder thing last week. 

Most pitches/innings thrown in a start this year. We all knew he wasn't throwing 100 pitches. Next time out will be 10-15 more.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They've been saying for over a month now that he would be eased back into it with pitch counts and limited exposure until they felt he was ready for a full load.  This is that progression.  He was clearly rusty when he first came off the IL as he was walking batters and didn't have command of his pitches.  Slowly but surely it looks like he's headed in the right direction.  Hold if you have him, pick him up now if he's still available.  We hopefully will be rewarded in the 2nd half with a quality starter on what should be one of the best teams in the league. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/26/2021 at 10:10 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Every offering is down at least 1 full tick from last year (except infrequent Curve)...

But as long as the shoulder stuff is in the rear-view, then he should be quite effective moving forward, last night:

FA- sat 93 MPH, it is averaging 93.7 on the season, it averaged 95.1 last year, it had really sweet vertical action last night (like usual) a real barrel dancer, had 5 called strikes and 1 whiff

SL- sat 86 mph, what it averages this year, last year it was 87.5 mph, great movement--had 2 called strikes and 3 whiffs

FS- the split is really his game changer (basically a hybrid change), it sat 83...last year it averaged over 85 MPH. He pounds the lower quadrants with it very well. Had 5 called strikes and 7 whiffs on the offering last night

CU- only spun up 1 last night, I like the pitch, esp good for his velo spectrum at 75 MPH. He just seldom uses it...6% last year and 6% this year.

his last outing was nice.  4 innings with 7 ks 1 hit 2bb

 

if someone has dropped him in your league id grab him.  looks like he got his command back over the last 2 starts as well.  hopefully they let him go 5 or 6 innings next time so he can factor into a W or QS

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If he can stay healthy and build pitch count this week in a tough matchup @WAS he has a solid two start week coming up the following scoring period - ARI at home and MIA on the road - hard to get better than that. 

If he is available in your league now is the time to pick him up even if you just stream him next week. You may end up with a second half difference maker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gonsolin slated to follow an opener in his start this week. If LA maintains that going forward could be a huge boost to his value in leagues that use wins as a category. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

He has 11 K's over his last 7 IP (2 appearances), and 22 K's over his 16 innings so far.  The WHIP is high, but that's due to the BB's as he's only allowed 12 H so far.  I'd assume his control will improve as he gets more reps on the mound.  Last year he only walked 7 over 40+ IP.  

There's some real upside here imo.  Stay patient.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I don't know.  Want to hold this guy cause I like the talent, but are the Dodgers ever gonna take the kid gloves off and let this guy throw some pitches?  He threw 52 yesterday.  Has only crested 80 once.  I'm in a QS league, so different perspective, but he's providing almost no value.  No chance at a QS, Ks are good, but limited based on the number of batters  he's allowed to face, ERA is fine, but WHIP is scary.

We're 5 starts in and this guy hasn't even seen the 5th inning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eno Sarris, who was up on him in 2020 is down now in 2021, citing being surprised by RP level command. the K’s should be there but seems the walks seem to likely remain a issue, even if improving as some of his starts were more like ST games. But the usage is still too minimal for Fantasy SP. Dodgers keep winning while keeping everyone mostly fresh. Not too promising but the Ks ratios are a bit tantalizingly. Probably just a 1-2 times through a rotation type unless the command improves but who knows. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think they are being very cautious ramping him up, as above poster alluded to, they keep winning so they can afford to do so. With an impending suspension to a big name arm in the LAD rotation that won't be named, I suspect they will have to let Gonso stretch out to starter lengths for the second half of the season. I think the control will come with getting back into a groove. Patience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In a QS league you have to hate his outlook at this point, but he's a definite hold in most other scenarios. Unlike Lamet's situation, there isn't much concern of re-injury, and the cautious pitch counts will give way to better performances when the situation merits one. We've seen other competitive teams slowplay guys like Shane Mac, Rich Hill, Gausman, Burnes, because they can afford to and don't care about our fantasy teams. But the move to bulk reliever is probably better for his overall W outlook, exhibited by last night's W. 

Gonsolin figures to continue to get run in that rotation up until the final week, as he's not a first round starter for LA, and a full build-up is only a few outings away. There is no one to really threaten his role even if he has a bad outing or two, they have shown zero interest in using Price or Nelson for more than 2-3 innings, despite stretches where they could have stretched either guy out. In general I think this means they're confident in Gonsolin's health, and he's just been a bit rustier in the first month back than we hoped. Nice spot for his next turn in Miami, let's see if he can keep the momentum going. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

I think they are being very cautious ramping him up, as above poster alluded to, they keep winning so they can afford to do so. With an impending suspension to a big name arm in the LAD rotation that won't be named, I suspect they will have to let Gonso stretch out to starter lengths for the second half of the season. I think the control will come with getting back into a groove. Patience.

This too crossed my mind but I care not to go there, anyway Gonsolin is safe and no need to head for the hills when his results thus far haven't been bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

This too crossed my mind but I care not to go there, anyway Gonsolin is safe and no need to head for the hills when his results thus far haven't been bad.

No, he hasn't been "bad", he just hasn't provided much in the way of value.  Quality ERA negated by his bad WHIP.  No chance at a QS and really, not really a great bet for wins either.  In a weekly, I find myself really hesitant to even start him because the payoff just isn't worth it.  I may miss out on 4 or 5 Ks, but that's about it. I dropped just because I need that roster spot for someone who will contribute in more than 1, maybe 2 cats.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

No, he hasn't been "bad", he just hasn't provided much in the way of value.  Quality ERA negated by his bad WHIP.  No chance at a QS and really, not really a great bet for wins either.  In a weekly, I find myself really hesitant to even start him because the payoff just isn't worth it.  I may miss out on 4 or 5 Ks, but that's about it. I dropped just because I need that roster spot for someone who will contribute in more than 1, maybe 2 cats.

Its a format/standings dependent thing. Gonsolin's still going to hold value in lots of roto leagues and H2H with the playoffs in mind, but these teams needs to be running well in the standings. If you're exceeding your innings limits or starts projection, he's an especially sneaky play. A flipside to the QS issue, where the bulk role is nice for managers looking to avoid a 200 start limit in ESPN leagues, for example. Certainly a team that is needing to get it going can't afford to be super patient, but the sample is still pretty small and that ERA is going to come down quite a bit. He's not John Gant, obviously, and maybe the WHIP settles around 1.3ish which ain't good of course, but its too early to make that call. There are a number of teams employing 6-man rotations, bulk guys going forward, so in a sea of tough to interpret hurlers, I'll take a guy on a really solid team that should get his fair share of Ws. Still, let's see where his next few outings take us, I'm not sure what else is out there in some leagues. Its a very fine line, he's probably streamer in many 10-team leagues, but still needs to be owned in a 12-teamers and up. You have him a weekly QS league which is probably the worst place to have him. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

He got the win yesterday coming on in the second inning. If they keep using him like that, he should get plenty of wins. Probably more value there than if he remains a 70 pitch starter (and 70 is being generous at the moment).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got to think they take the kids gloves off soon.  Bauer has a good chance of being done for the year which would leave them with Buehler Kershaw Urias as the top 3 arms, our boy Gonsolin as the fourth, and Price, Josiah Gray, or an arm outside the organization as the 5th.  Can't see them doing essentially two bullpen games a week. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:

If that was ceiling, I sure would have hoped for a lot better.  Not worth much in a QS league.

The thing you’re missing…that isn’t his ceiling. He is very obviously being slowly stretched out. Patience, the ceiling games will come in the second half. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

If that was ceiling, I sure would have hoped for a lot better.  Not worth much in a QS league.

He threw like 70 pitches... who is calling that his ceiling?

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

If that was ceiling, I sure would have hoped for a lot better.  Not worth much in a QS league.

I'd view him as a better version of Rich Hill. Expect his starts to be mostly 5IP, if he goes 6 or longer that is a win. But - good team context, better division than the AL east and a clear team need for him to remain in the rotation especially with the Bauer situation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

id say still pick him up or trade for him.  they arent going to baby him with 70 pitches all year (as mentioned above)

 

his command is getting better too....def a buy low if you still can

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

The year is 2034.  The pandemic has wiped out half the population.  The USA that you once knew no longer exists.  People are still telling you buy low on tony Gonsolin.  He has 1 QS since the year 2021.

Did Gonsolin steal your girlfriend (or boyfriend not judging) in college or something?

Edited by jfazz23
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...