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Tyler Lockett 2021 Outlook


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Lockett is now one of the top ten highest paid WRs in the NFL. He's coming off of a 100/1000/10 season. He's on a great team with a Hall of Fame QB who's still in his prime. Seems like a no-brainer WR1, but he'll be a drafted as a ho-hum WR3.

People will point out that he got most of his production last year in 5 or 6 games and had a bunch of duds. True, but both his highs and lows should regress to the mean. It's unlikely he has any 15 catch games next year, but it's also unlikely he has a bunch of 3 catch games. 

Instead, he'll more likely split the difference and find himself with around 6 or 7 receptions more often than not. 

Seems like a guy who will fly under the radar all season, then end up with 92/1100/8 and quietly win people some leagues. 

Edited by ajs723
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4 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Lockett is now one of the top ten highest paid WRs in the NFL. He's coming off of a 100/1000/10 season. He's on a great team with a Hall of Fame QB who's still in his prime. Seems like a no-brainer WR1, but he'll be a drafted as a ho-hum WR3.

People will point out that he got most of his production last year in 5 or 6 games and had a bunch of duds. True, but both his highs and lows should regress to the mean. It's unlikely he has any 15 catch games next year, but it's also unlikely he has a bunch of 3 catch games. 

Instead, he'll more likely split the difference and find himself with around 6 or 7 receptions more often than not. 

Seems like a guy who will fly under the radar all season, then end up with 92/1100/8 and quietly win people some leagues. 

Not to mention, there is some possibility (maybe even a likelihood) that Carrol let’s Russ cook more than years past.  

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The new OC definitely has me interested in drafting Lockett this year. There's no way Pete Carroll quadruples down on the stone age playcalling after this offseasons trade drama...right?

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I think Lockett's proven himself to be a great receiver, but the usage obviously was hit or miss last year.   He had games of 13, 14, and 20 (!) targets with 8 of his 10 TD's in those 3 games, but also 7 games of 4 or 5 targets.

Love the guy, but scared to know what i'm gonna get any given week

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1 hour ago, sSektor said:

The new OC definitely has me interested in drafting Lockett this year. There's no way Pete Carroll quadruples down on the stone age playcalling after this offseasons trade drama...right?

If he is to be believed, and I think at this point he should be, that’s exactly what he will do.

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In my half PPR league, Lockett scored 214 points, and 105 of them came in three games. Aside from those three games, he was the WR43. I get the logic to trust him being more consistent this season, but I’m going to have a hard time doing that unless the price is right.

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12 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

In my half PPR league, Lockett scored 214 points, and 105 of them came in three games. Aside from those three games, he was the WR43. I get the logic to trust him being more consistent this season, but I’m going to have a hard time doing that unless the price is right.

i have 6 doable games for lockett last season, not 3, but i agree with your point: the consistency was far too erratic, and 6 out of 16 games can add up to multiple losses for a fantasy team banking on production. every week counts in getting to the playoffs and carson and metcalf and carroll cast long shadows in seattle.

Date

REC

TGTS

YDS

TD

 

Sun 1/3

 

12

 
 

14

90

2

 
 

Sun 12/27

3

5

44

0

 
 

Sun 12/20

4

7

34

0

 
 

Sun 12/13

5

5

52

0

 
 

Sun 12/6

6

9

63

0

 
 

Mon 11/30

3

4

23

0

 
 

Thu 11/19

9

9

67

1

 
 

Sun 11/15

5

9

66

0

 
 

Sun 11/8

4

7

40

0

 
 

Sun 11/1

4

5

33

0

 
 

Sun 10/25

15

20

200

3

 
 

Sun 10/11

4

5

44

0

 
 

Sun 10/4

2

4

39

0

 
 

Sun 9/27

9

13

100

3

 
 

Sun 9/20

7

8

67

1

 
 

Sun 9/13

8

8

92

0

 
 
On 4/3/2021 at 2:19 AM, ajs723 said:

Lockett is now one of the top ten highest paid WRs in the NFL. He's coming off of a 100/1000/10 season. He's on a great team with a Hall of Fame QB who's still in his prime. Seems like a no-brainer WR1, but he'll be a drafted as a ho-hum WR3.

based on the offense AND dk metcalf's continued emergence, i am not banking on lockett's talent or contract money to turn into reliable fantasy dividends... the only lockett no-brainer decision is BEST BALL.

16 hours ago, BrianM said:

Love the guy, but scared to know what i'm gonna get any given week

BEST BALL!!!

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I think he'll be high priced by people who remember the big weeks or get lost in the overall stat line.  After all, he was a top 10 PPR guy last year, and even if you're aware of the roller coaster, there's certainly the possibility of a more consistent weekly target share.    He stands out as an early contender for a player I want to own once but no more than that.  

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

Date

 

REC

 

TGTS

 

YDS

 

TD

 

 

Sun 1/3

 

 

 

12

 

 
 

14

 

90

 

2

 

 
 

Sun 12/27

 

3

 

5

 

44

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/20

 

4

 

7

 

34

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/13

 

5

 

5

 

52

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/6

 

6

 

9

 

63

 

0

 

 
 

Mon 11/30

 

3

 

4

 

23

 

0

 

 
 

Thu 11/19

 

9

 

9

 

67

 

1

 

 
 

Sun 11/15

 

5

 

9

 

66

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 11/8

 

4

 

7

 

40

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 11/1

 

4

 

5

 

33

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 10/25

 

15

 

20

 

200

 

3

 

 
 

Sun 10/11

 

4

 

5

 

44

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 10/4

 

2

 

4

 

39

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 9/27

 

9

 

13

 

100

 

3

 

 
 

Sun 9/20

 

7

 

8

 

67

 

1

 

 
 

Sun 9/13

 

8

 

8

 

92

 

0

 

 
 

6 for 63 and 5 for 66 are acceptable weeks in PPR. 

That skew of 8 games that were acceptable to amazing, and 8 games that were bad is just so flukey there's nothing to do with that information but ignore it. 

Look at some more reliable WR1/2s from last year. Robert Woods had 7 games at or under 11 points. Thielen had 6 single digit duds. ARob and Metcalf had five games under 12 points.

If Lockett has one or two more solid games, this narrative doesn't exist. 

I think Lockett should be drafted as no worse than a top 16 WR, and he'll end up going around WR 25, which will make him a huge value. 

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Funny thing is 2019 was the exact same thing. I've had him both years and he's cost me down the stretch both times. Maybe there's a chance the new OC changes that but I'm not betting on it. If he falls to me at the right price I wouldn't avoid him but not going out of my way to get him on teams any longer.

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FWIW I did a mock today and got him at the 5/6 turn, 61 overall.   That's a bit low and I don't think it'd stay that way, but if it does, hard to pass him up as your WR3

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4 hours ago, BrianM said:

FWIW I did a mock today and got him at the 5/6 turn, 61 overall.   That's a bit low and I don't think it'd stay that way, but if it does, hard to pass him up as your WR3

I think that's about where he's going to be valued. He's going to be on a lot of winning rosters this year. 

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I think that's about where he's going to be valued. He's going to be on a lot of winning rosters this year. 

Why do you think things will be different than they were the last two years? Is it based on regression to mean type thinking or something else? I couldn't start him at the end of last year because the production just wasn't there.

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22 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I think Lockett should be drafted as no worse than a top 16 WR, and he'll end up going around WR 25, which will make him a huge value. 

the problem isn't where lockett ends up at season's end, the problem is that he has not been a reliable week-to-week play AND that he costs owners wins with big duds.

compare 2020 lockett to 2020 will fuller:

  • lockett = 10 games of single-digit fantasy production in half-PPR
  • fuller = 2 games of single-digit fantasy production in half-PPR

seattle does not need to rely on lockett, and DK metcalf is a big presence, and they love to run. there will be big weeks, there will be zip.

1 hour ago, Joe Mama said:

Why do you think things will be different than they were the last two years? Is it based on regression to mean type thinking or something else? I couldn't start him at the end of last year because the production just wasn't there.

ajs723 seems to be arguing for the season's end standing. but i'm with you: seeing lockett whiff and goose-egg is too painful, especially in a playoff race, even more in the playoffs.

and i agree with your previous post, that lockett's 2020 was echoed by his 2019 (8 games at 10 points or less in half-PPR), and i cannot see why this year would be different, despite the $$$$ contract. they will use lockett when they need lockett, but wilson and carroll do not need to rely on lockett. seahawks backfield will begin the season with a healthy carson, a healthy penny, and a sophomore with talent. a healthy jamal adams will also be helpful for a turnover or three.

no reason why lockett shouldn't have that 3TD 200 yard game now and again---DK's turn to goose-egg---but that says "BEST BALL" to me all day long.

13 hours ago, BrianM said:

FWIW I did a mock today and got him at the 5/6 turn, 61 overall.   That's a bit low and I don't think it'd stay that way, but if it does, hard to pass him up as your WR3

despite my trepidation, can't argue with your pick, and depending on who else was there i'd probably do the same. noteworthy ADPs around there = dj chark, fuller, kupp, OBJ, tyler boyd, dj moore, chase claypool. wouldn't begrudge anyone for choosing lockett over any of these----and really it's personal preferences at this point----and for my two cents i will reach one round for tee higgins here (assuming the bengals take sewell at 1.05).

that said, if drafting lockett at the 5/6, i'd suggest selling locket high as soon as i could, like after a 2-3 game run of megapoints.

 

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3 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Why do you think things will be different than they were the last two years? Is it based on regression to mean type thinking or something else? I couldn't start him at the end of last year because the production just wasn't there.

 

1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

ajs723 seems to be arguing for the season's end standing. but i'm with you: seeing lockett whiff and goose-egg is too painful, especially in a playoff race, even more in the playoffs.

 

 

Absolutely not my argument! If Lockett has 8-10 duds again, he will be frustrating to own. Fantasy is, indeed, a week-to-week game. 

My argument is really simple. Lockett's 8-10 duds were simply flukey. Do I think he'll have 5-6 duds? Probably. But that's par for the course for a WR1/2. I think ARob will have 5-6 duds. I think Thielen will have 5 or 6. Ditto, Robert Woods, etc. The difference is none of those guys will be going as the 25th WR off the board like Lockett will be.

People have been burned by some unfavorable random variance, and some ill-timed bad games. But overall, Lockett is still someone that should be drafted as a WR1/2, certainly in the top 16. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

 

Absolutely not my argument! If Lockett has 8-10 duds again, he will be frustrating to own. Fantasy is, indeed, a week-to-week game. 

My argument is really simple. Lockett's 8-10 duds were simply flukey. Do I think he'll have 5-6 duds? Probably. But that's par for the course for a WR1/2. I think ARob will have 5-6 duds. I think Thielen will have 5 or 6. Ditto, Robert Woods, etc. The difference is none of those guys will be going as the 25th WR off the board like Lockett will be.

People have been burned by some unfavorable random variance, and some ill-timed bad games. But overall, Lockett is still someone that should be drafted as a WR1/2, certainly in the top 16. 

Yeah I dunno after two years I think it’s more than a fluke. Also he went off a few games at beginning of year when Russ was ‘cooking’ and can’t assume that’s gonna happen again. I couldn’t even start him at end of the year. That isn’t a wr 1/2. Maybe there’s a chance something changes this year but it’s hard to bet too heavily on that.

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7 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Yeah I dunno after two years I think it’s more than a fluke. Also he went off a few games at beginning of year when Russ was ‘cooking’ and can’t assume that’s gonna happen again. I couldn’t even start him at end of the year. That isn’t a wr 1/2. Maybe there’s a chance something changes this year but it’s hard to bet too heavily on that.

You shouldn’t have started him, but he was such that you could never bench him because then you might be leaving 60 points on the bench.

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51 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

Yeah I dunno after two years I think it’s more than a fluke. Also he went off a few games at beginning of year when Russ was ‘cooking’ and can’t assume that’s gonna happen again. I couldn’t even start him at end of the year. That isn’t a wr 1/2. Maybe there’s a chance something changes this year but it’s hard to bet too heavily on that.

In 2019, he had 5 games that I would consider duds, and one game where I believe he left early with a leg injury. 

If you told me Lockett will have 5 dud games this year, I'd say sign me up for him as a borderline WR1. 

This is all about his weird year last year, which I do think was a fluke. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

In 2019, he had 5 games that I would consider duds, and one game where I believe he left early with a leg injury. 

If you told me Lockett will have 5 dud games this year, I'd say sign me up for him as a borderline WR1. 

This is all about his weird year last year, which I do think was a fluke. 

He was hurt a bit at the end of 2019 which was I was in on him going into 2020. But for me it’s the old saying ‘fool me once, can’t get fooled again.’

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On 4/4/2021 at 8:19 AM, Sack Exchange said:

i have 6 doable games for lockett last season, not 3, but i agree with your point: the consistency was far too erratic, and 6 out of 16 games can add up to multiple losses for a fantasy team banking on production. every week counts in getting to the playoffs and carson and metcalf and carroll cast long shadows in seattle.

 

Date

 

REC

 

TGTS

 

YDS

 

TD

 

 

Sun 1/3

 

 

 

12

 

 
 

14

 

90

 

2

 

 
 

Sun 12/27

 

3

 

5

 

44

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/20

 

4

 

7

 

34

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/13

 

5

 

5

 

52

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 12/6

 

6

 

9

 

63

 

0

 

 
 

Mon 11/30

 

3

 

4

 

23

 

0

 

 
 

Thu 11/19

 

9

 

9

 

67

 

1

 

 
 

Sun 11/15

 

5

 

9

 

66

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 11/8

 

4

 

7

 

40

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 11/1

 

4

 

5

 

33

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 10/25

 

15

 

20

 

200

 

3

 

 
 

Sun 10/11

 

4

 

5

 

44

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 10/4

 

2

 

4

 

39

 

0

 

 
 

Sun 9/27

 

9

 

13

 

100

 

3

 

 
 

Sun 9/20

 

7

 

8

 

67

 

1

 

 
 

Sun 9/13

 

8

 

8

 

92

 

0

 

 
 

based on the offense AND dk metcalf's continued emergence, i am not banking on lockett's talent or contract money to turn into reliable fantasy dividends... the only lockett no-brainer decision is BEST BALL.

BEST BALL!!!

Yeah, there there a few other useful weeks. My point was that in my half PPR league, almost half his points for the season came in three games. After three games, it looked like he was headed for an epic season. 

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22 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I think that's about where he's going to be valued. He's going to be on a lot of winning rosters this year. 

I don't think that can be said with any confidence. 

And I sure wouldn't be touting him as a possible WR1 or saying he should be drafted as a borderline 1/2, even though that's how his total numbers finished in 2019 and 2020. I just don't trust him as that. And it's not just a Lockett thing but also a Russ-Pete thing. 

And it's a thing of him disappearing when it counts most. In 2019, he had 85.5 points in the final 8 games in my half PPR league (not great, more of a high WR3 level)...55.7 of those came in weeks 9 and 15. The problem with week 15 (even though it's a playoff week) is that I wouldn't have started him because he had a grand total of 15.0 points in the four weeks previous. In 2020 he had 84.4 points in the final 8 games, and 27 of those came in week 17, when most leagues aren't even playing. In the five weeks previous to that, he had 31.1 for the all important weeks 12-16. So when we're talking about the weeks leading up to the playoffs and then the playoffs, he's anything but a WR1 or anyone I'd want to count on as a WR1 (even WR2). 

In a vacuum, I like the player, but in all honesty I don't want him as my WR2 in the 2nd half of the season and would probably look to trade him a few weeks into the 2021 season. Maybe this will be the year he puts a full season together, but it's unlikely he'll be on any of my teams if he does. 

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32 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I don't think that can be said with any confidence. 

And I sure wouldn't be touting him as a possible WR1 or saying he should be drafted as a borderline 1/2, even though that's how his total numbers finished in 2019 and 2020. I just don't trust him as that. And it's not just a Lockett thing but also a Russ-Pete thing. 

And it's a thing of him disappearing when it counts most. In 2019, he had 85.5 points in the final 8 games in my half PPR league (not great, more of a high WR3 level)...55.7 of those came in weeks 9 and 15. The problem with week 15 (even though it's a playoff week) is that I wouldn't have started him because he had a grand total of 15.0 points in the four weeks previous. In 2020 he had 84.4 points in the final 8 games, and 27 of those came in week 17, when most leagues aren't even playing. In the five weeks previous to that, he had 31.1 for the all important weeks 12-16. So when we're talking about the weeks leading up to the playoffs and then the playoffs, he's anything but a WR1 or anyone I'd want to count on as a WR1 (even WR2). 

In a vacuum, I like the player, but in all honesty I don't want him as my WR2 in the 2nd half of the season and would probably look to trade him a few weeks into the 2021 season. Maybe this will be the year he puts a full season together, but it's unlikely he'll be on any of my teams if he does. 

This is a well reasoned post, but my counter is simple. Again, he doesn't need to eliminate all these down games, he just needs to eliminate one or two.

Lockett had 7 games in single digits. Another 3 games between 10-12 points.  For some reason, that's a disaster. 

Everyone will agree Robert Woods and Adam Thielen are high end WR2s, and their seasons were super similar to Lockett's. They each had 6 games in single digits in full PPR, and another at 11-12 points.

If Lockett has just one more catch in any of those 7 single digits performances, then his variance is virtually identical to those two guys. One more catch. 

At the end of 2021, Lockett probably will have 6 single digit games, but so will every high end WR2. That's why they're WR2s and not WR1s. The difference is Lockett can go off for 12/180/3 any week. 

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11 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This is a well reasoned post, but my counter is simple. Again, he doesn't need to eliminate all these down games, he just needs to eliminate one or two.

Lockett had 7 games in single digits. Another 3 games between 10-12 points.  For some reason, that's a disaster. 

Everyone will agree Robert Woods and Adam Thielen are high end WR2s, and their seasons were super similar to Lockett's. They each had 6 games in single digits in full PPR, and another at 11-12 points.

If Lockett has just one more catch in any of those 7 single digits performances, then his variance is virtually identical to those two guys. One more catch. 

At the end of 2021, Lockett probably will have 6 single digit games, but so will every high end WR2. That's why they're WR2s and not WR1s. The difference is Lockett can go off for 12/180/3 any week. 

My concern is more with the second half of the season. Two years in a row now, he's disappeared and been a WR3 over the final 8 games. He basically had two good games over that span in 2019 and two good games in the same span in 2020. Maybe he turns that around in 2021, but for me he's a pass. I definitely don't fault anyone for buying in for the right price. I just don't think I'll be able to. Now that I've said that...I'll probably own him in every league. LOL. 

Edited by Flyman75
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30 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

My concern is more with the second half of the season. Two years in a row now, he's disappeared and been a WR3 over the final 8 games. He basically had two good games over that span in 2019 and two good games in the same span in 2020. Maybe he turns that around in 2021, but for me he's a pass. I definitely don't fault anyone for buying in for the right price. I just don't think I'll be able to. Now that I've said that...I'll probably own him in every league. LOL. 

I just doubt that there's any actual reason he's performed poorly in the second half of seasons. He's not a guy who's played through injuries, or who seems unable to physically hold up for an entire season. So, it just seems like bad luck. We'll see how it goes this year.

Edited by ajs723
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This thread is going to be hype after the first couple weeks.

Then Wilson is going to have a double digit interception game because he’s a human, Carroll is going to get scared, they’re going to start running like it’s the 70s, and Lockett is going to see 2-3 receptions most weeks.

Then this thread will be hype no more. 

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