Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 51
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If you really understand that it's a long season, then you wouldn't bother to cite a player's individual stats after his team has played 8 out of 162 games.  To do so would be akin to judging a footba

I think we're talking about a lot more than potential considering Olson's HR totals in each of the last 4 seasons have been 24, 29, 36, and 14, the latter of which would pro-rate out to around 35 in a

Walks very little? He was 17th in all of MLB in walks last season. 13.9% BB rate. He gets a decent boost in OBP leagues. Close to 90 RBI? He had 91 in 2019 despite missing a month. Prorate his 20

  • tonycpsu changed the title to Matt Olson 2021 Outlook

Borderline droppable. Potential is just that, potential. If you can’t put it together then what does it matter? other options on the waiver wire are flying off to teams and people with Olson are gonna be stuck with him while waiting on his potential.

 

 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Potential is just that, potential.

I think we're talking about a lot more than potential considering Olson's HR totals in each of the last 4 seasons have been 24, 29, 36, and 14, the latter of which would pro-rate out to around 35 in a full season.  It's easy to make the day-trader case that you should drop a guy who's not performing to pick up the flavor of the week who's performing now, but saying Olson has "potential" or implying that a guy who's ranked 11th, 15th, and 12th among 1B in 5x5 roto "can't put it together" is simply wrong.  He's a back-end starting 1B or a strong CI option, and we all know 80% of those waiver wire gems will be back on the wire in a month.  If you know who the 20% are who will stick around, that's great, but you probably don't, and neither do I.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

I think we're talking about a lot more than potential considering Olson's HR totals in each of the last 4 seasons have been 24, 29, 36, and 14, the latter of which would pro-rate out to around 35 in a full season.  It's easy to make the day-trader case that you should drop a guy who's not performing to pick up the flavor of the week who's performing now, but saying Olson has "potential" or implying that a guy who's ranked 11th, 15th, and 12th among 1B in 5x5 roto "can't put it together" is simply wrong.  He's a back-end starting 1B or a strong CI option, and we all know 80% of those waiver wire gems will be back on the wire in a month.  If you know who the 20% are who will stick around, that's great, but you probably don't, and neither do I.

Yeah, Olson is a proven player. He will rack up HR and RBI while doing little else--but you knew that when you drafted him. He is capable of monster power surges so his player card could change in a hurry.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Borderline droppable. Potential is just that, potential. If you can’t put it together then what does it matter? other options on the waiver wire are flying off to teams and people with Olson are gonna be stuck with him while waiting on his potential.

 

 

I’m going to assume this is intended to be a sarcastic joke. Lol. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude was fine during the spring (incidentally, maybe it's better if a player struggles during the spring cuz he adjusts as the season starts). Then he hurt his knee. Plus, it's not like the rest of the OAK hitters are destroying the ball either, so the pitching they've faced is a factor.

He hit a ton of homers two yrs ago despite breaking his hand. I feel like he's just a minor adjustment away from turning owners' frowns upside down.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

He is smoking the ball when he hits it, the problem is he is hitting a ton of groundballs and no flyballs.

He gets his launch angle up a little, 40HRs is coming.

Edited by Hellgrammite
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

I’m going to assume this is intended to be a sarcastic joke. Lol. 


It’s not.
 

Olsen is capable of hitting HRs in bunches no doubt but what else is he good at? Low batting average, doesn’t score a lot of runs, steals no bases, strikes out a ton, walks very little. 

if you drafted him and your strategy was to use him for HRs and close to 90 RBI with little to nothing else then you are probably golden.

If you took over a team with him on it then it might be a different story. I’ll be rooting for him to perform his best or hope that he can get hot enough to sell high for a guy who can contribute in more than a couple of categories.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


It’s not.
 

Olsen is capable of hitting HRs in bunches no doubt but what else is he good at? Low batting average, doesn’t score a lot of runs, steals no bases, strikes out a ton, walks very little. 

if you drafted him and your strategy was to use him for HRs and close to 90 RBI with little to nothing else then you are probably golden.

If you took over a team with him on it then it might be a different story. I’ll be rooting for him to perform his best or hope that he can get hot enough to sell high for a guy who can contribute in more than a couple of categories.

That’s all anyone drafted him for...a low-end starting 1B or solid CI. Only the foolish drafted him for anything more than HR-RBI. 

There are a lot of guys who will contribute is just a couple of cats, and every championship team has them. The key is roster construction and how they fit with other pieces. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

That’s all anyone drafted him for...a low-end starting 1B or solid CI. Only the foolish drafted him for anything more than HR-RBI. 

There are a lot of guys who will contribute is just a couple of cats, and every championship team has them. The key is roster construction and how they fit with other pieces. 


thanks for the explanation

 

hopefully he can start contributing in the only 2 categories people drafted him for soon.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Olsen is capable of hitting HRs in bunches no doubt but what else is he good at? Low batting average, doesn’t score a lot of runs, steals no bases, strikes out a ton, walks very little. 

if you drafted him and your strategy was to use him for HRs and close to 90 RBI with little to nothing else then you are probably golden.

If you took over a team with him on it then it might be a different story. I’ll be rooting for him to perform his best or hope that he can get hot enough to sell high for a guy who can contribute in more than a couple of categories.

Walks very little? He was 17th in all of MLB in walks last season. 13.9% BB rate. He gets a decent boost in OBP leagues.

Close to 90 RBI? He had 91 in 2019 despite missing a month. Prorate his 2019 and 2020 numbers over a full season and he easily clears 100 RBI in both.

The idea of dropping him after one week is just absurd.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Walks very little? He was 17th in all of MLB in walks last season. 13.9% BB rate. He gets a decent boost in OBP leagues.

Close to 90 RBI? He had 91 in 2019 despite missing a month. Prorate his 2019 and 2020 numbers over a full season and he easily clears 100 RBI in both.

The idea of dropping him after one week is just absurd.


close to 90 Rbi is what I said. He had 91 in 2019 in 2018 he had 84 in more games played. Aren’t both of those close to 90? 

I said he was borderline droppable, really depends on your league when someone like Jarrad Wash is available it could make someone consider it.

That is surprising to hear about his BB numbers but it doesn’t help boost his run scored numbers or his batting average, currently batting under .200, same way he finished the 2020 season.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


thanks for the explanation

 

hopefully he can start contributing in the only 2 categories people drafted him for soon.

If you want to get snarky, go for it. I was just discussing and offering my perspective. It’s a long season, and he’s not the only vet stumbling out of the blocks. Provided he stays healthy, I see no reason why he doesn’t reach 35-40 HR and 90-100 RBI. 

And you mentioned that he doesn’t score a lot of runs, which is really not true. His 550 AB average is 81 runs, which is pretty solid. In fact, his 162-game average is .245-85-39-100, and in two out of the last three seasons, he’s played every game. I’d take that from a backend 1B or CI. 

As for his struggles so far...it’s April 9. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

If you want to get snarky, go for it. I was just discussing and offering my perspective. It’s a long season, and he’s not the only vet stumbling out of the blocks. Provided he stays healthy, I see no reason why he doesn’t reach 35-40 HR and 90-100 RBI. 

And you mentioned that he doesn’t score a lot of runs, which is really not true. His 550 AB average is 81 runs, which is pretty solid. In fact, his 162-game average is .245-85-39-100, and in two out of the last three seasons, he’s played every game. I’d take that from a backend 1B or CI. 

As for his struggles so far...it’s April 9. 


I wasn’t being snarky, I’m just offering my perspective as well. 
 

There are always gonna be varying opinions on guys who bat between .200 - .240 but can hit 30+ HRs. Obviously they can provide a boost but their cold spells can hurt you pretty bad too. 
 


I just took a random 1B available on waivers and compared their numbers so far this season.

 

Colin Moran from the Pirates has 4 runs, 2 HRs, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 11 SO .280 BA, .979 OPS in 29 PA

 

Matt Olson has 1 run, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 8 SO, .190 BA and a .558 OPS. 
 

Now I know baseball is a long season and I know Olson is not the only player with a sluggish start but I look back at Olson’s batting average last season and he was under .200. He was at .195 BA after 215 PA’s. 
 

It’s a given that Olson will hit his HR’s but in a daily league where you set your lineup daily is the difference between Olson and Moran so great that You would waste the roster spot on Olson’s off days, injuries, and cold spells to keep him instead of just streaming 1B and having the roster flexibility to add/drop that spot as necessary throughout the season?

 

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

If you really understand that it's a long season, then you wouldn't bother to cite a player's individual stats after his team has played 8 out of 162 games.  To do so would be akin to judging a football player's season during the 3rd quarter of their first game, or a basketball player's season after 4 games.

This is the kind of stretch every player with a three true outcome-heavy profile goes through several times a season.  The only reason you're noticing is because this particular stretch is happening at the beginning of the year.  If you just don't like rostering players like this because you can't weather the lean times, then you should probably sell him as soon as he pulls out of this one.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


I wasn’t being snarky, I’m just offering my perspective as well. 
 

There are always gonna be varying opinions on guys who bat between .200 - .240 but can hit 30+ HRs. Obviously they can provide a boost but their cold spells can hurt you pretty bad too. 
 


I just took a random 1B available on waivers and compared their numbers so far this season.

 

Colin Moran from the Pirates has 4 runs, 2 HRs, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 11 SO .280 BA, .979 OPS in 29 PA

 

Matt Olson has 1 run, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 8 SO, .190 BA and a .558 OPS. 
 

Now I know baseball is a long season and I know Olson is not the only player with a sluggish start but I look back at Olson’s batting average last season and he was under .200. He was at .195 BA after 215 PA’s. 
 

It’s a given that Olson will hit his HR’s but in a daily league where you set your lineup daily is the difference between Olson and Moran so great that You would waste the roster spot on Olson’s off days, injuries, and cold spells to keep him instead of just streaming 1B and having the roster flexibility to add/drop that spot as necessary throughout the season?

Olson hit .259, .247, and .267 in 2017-19. I am not a bit worried about whether he’ll hit in the .250-.260 range or not. And I’m not even worried about last year and put very little stock in it. Your inference that he’s a guy who hits between .200-.240 is just patently false, unless you want to count the covid season...which most people just toss in the trash. 

As fas as Moran, if you want to start him ahead of Olson, be my guest. I play in daily leagues and wouldn’t even consider starting Moran over Olson. And I know he was just an example, but for me Olson is a guy I’d plug in and leave alone. I know what I’m expecting, which is 160 games of .255-85-40-100, and if I’m an owner of his, I’ve built my roster expecting that. So he’s slumping...all hitters slump. I’m not going to worry about trying to guess when hitters are going to slump or go on a streak, and I’m definitely not going to worry about his production after 8 days. 

Edited by Flyman75
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I mostly play in OBP leagues where Olson is much more valuable, because not counting walks is stupid IMO.  But in a shallow 10 team or less league that's standard categories, cutting Matt Olson probably doesn't kill your team because the waiver wire is likely very rich.  That being said, Olson is only 27 (and recently 27).  I wouldn't be panicking in the slightest.  If he were doing this for another week or two? I would not be panicking in the slightest. That's just baseball.   

Fantasy baseball managers are always ansy and prone to overreacting in the first month of the season. There's nothing new there. What is new, is that we're coming off a 60 game season where the first month mattered a lot more than it will this year.  It's time to remember how to play fantasy baseball.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I mostly play in OBP leagues where Olson is much more valuable, because not counting walks is stupid IMO.  But in a shallow 10 team or less league that's standard categories, cutting Matt Olson probably doesn't kill your team because the waiver wire is likely very rich.  That being said, Olson is only 27 (and recently 27).  I wouldn't be panicking in the slightest.  If he were doing this for another week or two? I would not be panicking in the slightest. That's just baseball.   

Fantasy baseball managers are always ansy and prone to overreacting in the first month of the season. There's nothing new there. What is new, is that we're coming off a 60 game season where the first month mattered a lot more than it will this year.  It's time to remember how to play fantasy baseball.

IMO. There's no league type or size where cutting Matt Olson makes sense after just one week of play.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

IMO. There's no league type or size where cutting Matt Olson makes sense after just one week of play.

NL Only for sure. In all seriousness, I'm not advising it, but I don't think it kills you in very shallow leagues with average over obp.

Edited by brockpapersizer
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Olson hit .259, .247, and .267 in 2017-19. I am not a bit worried about whether he’ll hit in the .250-.260 range or not. And I’m not even worried about last year and put very little stock in it. Your inference that he’s a guy who hits between .200-.240 is just patently false, unless you want to count the covid season...which most people just toss in the trash. 

As fas as Moran, if you want to start him ahead of Olson, be my guest. I play in daily leagues and wouldn’t even consider starting Moran over Olson. And I know he was just an example, but for me Olson is a guy I’d plug in and leave alone. I know what I’m expecting, which is 160 games of .255-85-40-100, and if I’m an owner of his, I’ve built my roster expecting that. So he’s slumping...all hitters slump. I’m not going to worry about trying to guess when hitters are going to slump or go on a streak, and I’m definitely not going to worry about his production after 8 days. 


At what point would you worry about his production?

 

for me it wouldn’t be about starting Moran over Olson but the roster flexibility it gives me for the season. Having the roster spot that I could add a pitcher during an off day or I could add another hitter in another off day to chase certain categories to win my weekly matchups. Or is Olson so much better than what I can stream that I’d be willing to give up that flexibility to deal with Olson’s cold spells, low batting average, and his off days or days when his team doesn’t have a game?

 

for example if Olson plays 4 games 1 week and has 3 off days, I can use his roster spot to stream Moran for 4 days then pick up 3 different starting pitchers for the days he would be off to chase some pitching categories then back to streaming 1B at the start of the next week. 
 

hopefully the way I’m explaining it makes sense. I’m not a complete noob and I know how to navigate through head to head matchups. 
 

if Olson hits closer to .250 then I believe he will be worth keeping and not streaming that spot because an average like that would mean he was getting on base more regularly and his runs scored and RBI numbers would increase because of that. However, if he keeps hovering around the Mendoza line but is hitting a lot of HRs I’d probably rather have the roster flexibility of being able to stream 1B and having that spot for additional pickups during off days. 
 

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


At what point would you worry about his production?

 

for me it wouldn’t be about starting Moran over Olson but the roster flexibility it gives me for the season. Having the roster spot that I could add a pitcher during an off day or I could add another hitter in another off day to chase certain categories to win my weekly matchups. Or is Olson so much better than what I can stream that I’d be willing to give up that flexibility to deal with Olson’s cold spells, low batting average, and his off days or days when his team doesn’t have a game?

 

for example if Olson plays 4 games 1 week and has 3 off days, I can use his roster spot to stream Moran for 4 days then pick up 3 different starting pitchers for the days he would be off to chase some pitching categories then back to streaming 1B at the start of the next week. 
 

hopefully the way I’m explaining it makes sense. I’m not a complete noob and I know how to navigate through head to head matchups. 
 

if Olson hits closer to .250 then I believe he will be worth keeping and not streaming that spot because an average like that would mean he was getting on base more regularly and his runs scored and RBI numbers would increase because of that. However, if he keeps hovering around the Mendoza line but is hitting a lot of HRs I’d probably rather have the roster flexibility of being able to stream 1B and having that spot for additional pickups during off days. 
 

 

 

It’s a feel thing where I trust my instincts, but I’m not worried about his production eight days into the season. 

My response to the rest is very simple...sounds like a lot of overthinking. I’ve made more poor decisions by overthinking than I would have if I’d just trusted my instincts and logic. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's honestly crazy that Matt Olsen is such a hot topic 22 ABs into the season.  It's not like he's even gone 0'fer and people are talking about dropping him.  Should we drop Trevor Story he hasn't hit a HR yet either?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

It's honestly crazy that Matt Olsen is such a hot topic 22 ABs into the season.  It's not like he's even gone 0'fer and people are talking about dropping him.  Should we drop Trevor Story he hasn't hit a HR yet either?

Not “people”.

  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...