Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

There is no such thing as zero-RB strategy


Recommended Posts

Every strategy works if you don't draft busts. Zero RB and Zero WR "strategies" are just confirmation bias. People who swear by zero RB aren't going to let you know when they have a bad season.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 57
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

There is such a thing as a 1 RB strategy though.    all you need is king Henry.

Every strategy works if you don't draft busts. Zero RB and Zero WR "strategies" are just confirmation bias. People who swear by zero RB aren't going to let you know when they have a bad season.

I agree but you want to also limit risk. I honestly will never go WR/WR/TE/QB or any combination where one of the first 4 picks is not a RB. I don't care how the draft is shaping up it isn't going to

Posted Images

On 4/12/2021 at 8:26 AM, sSektor said:

Every strategy works if you don't draft busts. Zero RB and Zero WR "strategies" are just confirmation bias. People who swear by zero RB aren't going to let you know when they have a bad season.

I agree but you want to also limit risk. I honestly will never go WR/WR/TE/QB or any combination where one of the first 4 picks is not a RB. I don't care how the draft is shaping up it isn't going to happen. WR/TE or WR/WR maybe in certain instances but I want my RBs even in PPR. 

The reality is RBs are the most injury prone, the most dominant when you hit on your picks, and also the hardest to stream off the wire because those dudes are getting you 2 points. So having at least one legit RB and good depth seems like a must even in PPR. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Given how many injuries I had, I feel like my strategy last year was 0 starters.  I don't recommend it.

Yeah, honestly if you're gonna go zero anything and win, go zero injuries.   

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Taking the best player available based on who is left is a good strategy! And it might involve drafting a TE or even a WR in the first round. That's not zero-RB.

Zero-RB s the idea that the increased risk of injuries to RBs outweighs the reward of the massive weekly points spike that a top RB can give you, and also means that finding RB points later on the draft is easier than at other positions. And so you should just load up on wide receivers in the first rounds and then grab RB3s and RB handcuffs. This has been decisively disproven. It is a bad idea. But it continues to linger on, because so many fantasy experts built their brand on it. Shoot it in the head and burn the body! At least move on to some other stupid fad.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This point is absolutely true though.

It's not? I don't get this point at all and it's always pushed on here.

Late round RBs are usually 2nd or 3rd string RBs which means they will contribute only if there is an injury and even that is not guaranteed. You can still get legit WRs in the later rounds that have legit TD potential on any given week or breakout potential. You basically have a useless player that only contributes if an injury happens and even that is not certain. Just look at this years ADP after 100: 

RBs: Murray, M. Davis, Freeman, Mattison, Edwards, McFarland, etc.

WRs: Hilton, Davis, Sutton, M, Jones, M. Brown, Pittman, D. Samuel, C. Samuel, etc.

All these RBs are pretty much useless unless an injury happens. Even if an injury to there starter happens there is no guarantees. A lot of these WRs can contribute if one of your starters gets injured or can even have breakout years without needing injury luck to starters. That's why I am a believer in stacking up on RBs early if possible and then filling your WR needs. Again, I'll go WR/WR or something if the situation presents itself but in most cases I want my set and forget RBs.

Edited by Gohawks
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

It's not? I don't get this point at all and it's always pushed on here.

I do the same exercise every year, and it usually gives the same results. Haven't done it for 2020 yet, so I'll do it now.
I take the points scored for 2020 (eg https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr.php?year=2020&start=1&end=17) and compare that with the draft positions at the start of that same year (eg https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php). I throw these in an Excel and with some magic and some elbow grease we can then get something like this:

image.png.318a493b86f44a190d7e820b17a1331e.png

These are the (average) draft positions, and the points they scored throughout the season. If we continue that and apply some different colors for each position, you can make a graph (you knew I would):

image.png.05d39f1e0f8bb6055b0e9c613aed51be.png

I highlighted some of the players after draft pos 100 who still managed to get 150+ points .5 PPR (completely arbitrary cut-off point). Obviously for PPR and Standard you would see a somewhat different picture. You will note though that most of those lottery WRs are between position 100 and 150 though; after 150, the chance of picking a lucky RB or WR was similar in 2020, but there are still plenty red dots (WR) that would have been a decent WR3.

So I stand corrected. I need to check my older data, because I remember strongly that I saw a different picture in older years, but that could easily be me just getting old and senile.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I do the same exercise every year, and it usually gives the same results. Haven't done it for 2020 yet, so I'll do it now.
I take the points scored for 2020 (eg https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr.php?year=2020&start=1&end=17) and compare that with the draft positions at the start of that same year (eg https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php). I throw these in an Excel and with some magic and some elbow grease we can then get something like this:

image.png.318a493b86f44a190d7e820b17a1331e.png

These are the (average) draft positions, and the points they scored throughout the season. If we continue that and apply some different colors for each position, you can make a graph (you knew I would):

image.png.05d39f1e0f8bb6055b0e9c613aed51be.png

I highlighted some of the players after draft pos 100 who still managed to get 150+ points .5 PPR (completely arbitrary cut-off point). Obviously for PPR and Standard you would see a somewhat different picture. You will note though that most of those lottery WRs are between position 100 and 150 though; after 150, the chance of picking a lucky RB or WR was similar in 2020, but there are still plenty red dots (WR) that would have been a decent WR3.

So I stand corrected. I need to check my older data, because I remember strongly that I saw a different picture in older years, but that could easily be me just getting old and senile.

why would draft position ever matter?

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, beotos said:

why would draft position ever matter?

Because that's the whole point of RB0 (to me anyway). The idea is that there is sufficient RB value late in the draft so you can safely postpone it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/14/2021 at 2:40 PM, dghunter79 said:

Taking the best player available based on who is left is a good strategy! And it might involve drafting a TE or even a WR in the first round. That's not zero-RB.

Zero-RB s the idea that the increased risk of injuries to RBs outweighs the reward of the massive weekly points spike that a top RB can give you, and also means that finding RB points later on the draft is easier than at other positions. And so you should just load up on wide receivers in the first rounds and then grab RB3s and RB handcuffs. This has been decisively disproven. It is a bad idea. But it continues to linger on, because so many fantasy experts built their brand on it. Shoot it in the head and burn the body! At least move on to some other stupid fad.

 

This reinforces doing RB RB RB as well, knowing you’re going to have injuries through the year. This also gives you trade pieces in a scarcity position. This won me a championship last year despite losing CMC. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/10/2021 at 8:31 PM, NInsko said:

I usually draft 4 rbs straight, thinking of going 5 deep this yr.  Zero rb seems like a meme that popped up 5-6 years ago when TOP tier RBs were limited and the lower tiers were pretty **** Cedric Benson Beanie Wells etc and TOP WR were putting up big numbers AB Jordy nelson megatron julio .. basically there were more top tier wrs than rbs.

 Never used it, never seen it used, never seen it win.

I usually draft 3 straight.  Have done 4 straight as well with great success.   Especially in a full point ppr league where you can play 4 with 2 utility spots.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/15/2021 at 4:44 PM, Gohawks said:

Late round RBs are usually 2nd or 3rd string RBs which means they will contribute only if there is an injury and even that is not guaranteed. 

This is the big point that invalidates zero-RB for me. As the league has gone all-in on RBBC, it makes the few bellcows more valuable, but we're seeing time and time again that when bellcows go down a committee tends to form behind them. The days of sniping Charcandrick West from the Jamaal Charles owner (and then praying for a JC injury) are long over. JAGs just don't step in and take over 90% of the starter's workload after an injury anymore.

We can project the likely bellcows on draft night. If they get injured early in the season, that's just how it goes. But by getting too cute and bypassing the position completely, you're giving yourself almost no shot of actually landing a bellcow later in the draft -- because even when the injuries come, it's very rare for a second- or third-stringer to fill that role these days. You tend to wind up with either the TD-or-bust grinder or the third-down back who rarely exceeds 10 PPR points.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...

0 RB is just another strategy that has a 50% chance of paying off. I don't have the testicular fortitude to attempt it, as I happen to fundamentally disagree with it. 

There are ways to do it and win I'm sure - but I'm a RB fiend - it's my favorite position in football, and it has been key to many championships for me in fantasy.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

0 RB is just another strategy that has a 50% chance of paying off. I don't have the testicular fortitude to attempt it, as I happen to fundamentally disagree with it. 

There are ways to do it and win I'm sure - but I'm a RB fiend - it's my favorite position in football, and it has been key to many championships for me in fantasy.

50% is rich.

Bluntly put Zero RB is dumb. In fact any strict draft strategy is dumb. Avoiding certain positions early on is tying a hand behind your back for no reason.

This doesn’t even take into account that WRs are way easier to stream if worse comes to worse. Good luck streaming third string RBs when to no ones shock your 7th round + RBs don’t work out. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Zero rb is zero fun. Why would you not want to have stud rbs in a league where so few exist ? It's an advantage especially when injuries hit and some guys are scrounging for bottom feeders for rb. 

Not that i haven't won leagues with garbage rb after injury as anything can happen, but it sucks, its zero fun to plug in bums at rb

My most successful wins and best teams always had a good rb crew.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I listen to the rotoviz pod and Sean Siegele whenever I can. Sean plays massive volume so is very high risk high reward. He is in what they call the best ball of death and won 3 times in 5 or so years. He's more about roster construction then what players he picks. Last year he was high on Kamara and Cook might have been 2 and 3 for him but his top 5 were RB's.

 

I will be paraphrasing here but here are some pts he made. If you draft at the back of the draft and take 2 RB's you are playing catchup like a poster here mentioned while possibly given the teams at the top of the draft a similar RB2 to your RB1 and/or 2 while also letting them take a WR before you in round 2. Him in a perfect world would draft 5 WR and 1 TE in a 3 wr 1 flex league to start so he drafts a bench player before taking a RB, he loves to stack his QB to his pass catchers so he could take a QB in round 7 or even earlier if ADP dictates it so lets just assume 1 qb 5 wr and 1 te start then he starts RB's early and often.

Now when he drafts early in this situation he will try to get 3 or 4 RB's then stop, but what about handcuffs or other RB's, when he uses high draft capital on RB's he feels if they get hurt or bust he probably isn't gonna win anyways. When he goes RB early 4 RB then stops then lots and lots of WR's. He wins alot of leagues and finishes poorly in alot and I would guess he doesn't finish if the middle to often but he makes money doing it.

All that said, forcing zero RB or zero WR when you only play in 1 league or a handful of leagues is crazy but if you are playing in double digit or triple digit # of leagues then these high risk high reward strategies become viable when in most sites I play at you need to win 1 out of every 7 leagues to turn a profit and anything more or 2nds or 3rds is icing on top.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Going 3 or 4 rbs first is a dumb idea tho, you can build a strong rb foundation without losing all 4 top picks to rbs lol just sayin 

I mean it’s all dependent on the players available. If second round guys are falling to the third for whatever reason then you take them. Worst case you just trade from a position of strength after the draft. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...