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Alex Kirilloff 2021 Outlook


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His advanced metrics still look strong.  I believe they are even better than before he was injured.

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This forum sure goes from “slightly above average regular” to “league winner” real quick...

beat writer:  Alex Kirilloff is going to DH for the Saints today, beginning a rehab assignment. If that goes smoothly, he'll play the outfield tomorrow. If things go well, there's a chance it's o

Another one today. Absolutely smoked. Should be back with the twins tomorrow or Saturday, make sure he's not on your wire.  

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On 6/14/2021 at 8:30 AM, NoHablaIngles said:

It seems Larnach has surpassed him on the depth chart. I wouldn't be totally shocked if Kiriloff gets sent down once Buxton and Kepler are back. I sure hope I'm wrong.

Buxton CF, Kepler RF, Larnach LF, Kirillof 1B, Sano Bench bat

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10 minutes ago, B&F said:

Buxton CF, Kepler RF, Larnach LF, Kirillof 1B, Sano Bench bat

That makes sense based on performance, unless they are desperate for Sano's power. He is hitting an anemic .181. Sano has hit .193 across 2020-2021. He was better in 2019 (.247) but .199 in 2018. So three of the last four years he has been below the Mendoza line.

Kirilloff and Larnach are the future for the Twin's outfield. It would be a mistake to send one of them down since it is a vote of no confidence after both have acquitted themselves well. 

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17 minutes ago, B&F said:

Buxton CF, Kepler RF, Larnach LF, Kirillof 1B, Sano Bench bat

This.

Just my opinion, but I believe the Twins may be getting ready to move on from Sano. Since Larnach is considered the better defensive OF and 1st base might keep Kirillof healthier, they may go that route to keep them both in the line-up.

If/when Cruz is traded, another spot will open.

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12 minutes ago, CardiacDO said:

This guy is as empty of a player as you can get, basically Dylan Carlson but hitting at the bottom of the order. Easy cut right now. 

Yeah..starting to look that way.   I'm hanging on because I can, but if there were a better option available, I'd be all over it.

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2-4 with a rbi (and a fluke stolen base), and then gets intentionally walked in RISP walk off situations twice because he's got Ryan Jeffers and Simmons behind him 🙄 at the same time Larnach 0-5 3Ks 8 left on base. Buxton also left injured tonight. Idk if he'll get the three spot back right away but I'd be shocked if he's still batting 7th next game.

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Kirilloff keeps hitting but it is all singles. That is the problem and you have to wonder if it is the wrist.

Larnach had a bad game yesterday but he has clearly outplayed Kirilloff since AK's injury (I have both in a dynasty league so am rooting for both).

Kirilloff per 162 since his return (103 PA): 7 HR, 63 RBI, 44 R, .271 BA, .320 OBP, .685 OPS

Larnach per 162 during the same (106 PA): 18 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, .258 BA, .368 OBP, .772 OPS 

 

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1 hour ago, Ace_King said:

Larnach had a bad game yesterday but he has clearly outplayed Kirilloff since AK's injury (I have both in a dynasty league so am rooting for both).

Kirilloff per 162 since his return (103 PA): 7 HR, 63 RBI, 44 R, .271 BA, .320 OBP, .685 OPS

Larnach per 162 during the same (106 PA): 18 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, .258 BA, .368 OBP, .772 OPS 

I wouldnt say 'clearly'. Larnach has a few more HRs, but Kirilloff is batting higher, and he even had that sexy SB last night. 😏

Fact is Kirilloff is the more touted prospect with more upside. Theres a reason you can find Larnach on most WWs, and not Kirilloff.

In watching his ABs it doesn't seem like the wrist is bothering him, or that hes nursing any kind of injury. He looks comfortable at the plate, having good ABs. Sure the power has been lacking a bit, but as long as he keeps hitting and having good ABs the HRs will come.

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It is tricky knowing what to do with him, right now he isn't producing to merit a spot outside of the deeper leagues. His story is very similar to Andrew Vaughn's this year, his underlying profiles shows a guy who is doing more than a fighting good job adjusting to major league pitching. Just in terms of plate discipline, you have to like how both guys are drawing walks and not striking out a ton. Neither has shown much in the way of sustained power, and each is a respective category drag on Rs or RBIs.

You have to think that both players are in store for better times ahead in the second half, as even some decent luck in the counting categories should make them closer to normal contributors, each capable of maybe a dozen HRs from here with a decent .260+ BA. That's not exciting, but could be worth the wait. I certainly have eyed Larnach in a deep league where I roster Kirilloff, but I'm not inclined to make the switch, even with the recent flip in the batting order. If you kept one of them over snagging a proven power guy like Duvall, Pederson or Schwarber (all guys I said to run and go get in his place a month ago) then you got swept up in rookie hype, but if you're now finding the wire littered with guys like Josh Bell, Josh(ua) Fuentes, Josh Naylor, Josh Harrison, basically anyone named Josh I'd probably stick with Alex. I'm not Joshin' ya on that. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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2 hours ago, gregp said:

I wouldnt say 'clearly'. Larnach has a few more HRs, but Kirilloff is batting higher, and he even had that sexy SB last night. 😏

Fact is Kirilloff is the more touted prospect with more upside. Theres a reason you can find Larnach on most WWs, and not Kirilloff.

In watching his ABs it doesn't seem like the wrist is bothering him, or that hes nursing any kind of injury. He looks comfortable at the plate, having good ABs. Sure the power has been lacking a bit, but as long as he keeps hitting and having good ABs the HRs will come.

Kirilloff's BA is higher but not by much but Larnach's OBP laps Kirilloff's, which is why Larnach is batting high in the order now. Kirilloff was but then got dropped back. I agree with the pedigree difference and if I had to bet ROS I would bet on Kirilloff (I added AK to my major league roster but have not done the same with Larnach yet) but I can see why Larnach is batting 3rd and Kirilloff lower, although 7th seems too late.

1 hour ago, Richard Kimble said:

It is tricky knowing what to do with him, right now he isn't producing to merit a spot outside of the deeper leagues. His story is very similar to Andrew Vaughn's this year, his underlying profiles shows a guy who is doing more than a fighting good job adjusting to major league pitching. Just in terms of plate discipline, you have to like how both guys are drawing walks and not striking out a ton. Neither has shown much in the way of sustained power, and each is a respective category drag on Rs or RBIs.

You have to think that both players are in store for better times ahead in the second half, as even some decent luck in the counting categories should make them closer to normal contributors, each capable of maybe a dozen HRs from here with a decent .260+ BA. 

A key difference between Kiriloff and Vaughn is AK was raking at one point while Vaughn has never done it to date for anything more than a random game or two. AK was playing so well that people in this thread were talking about him as a league winner but then he got hurt and the results haven't been the same. 

Some of this may be regression to the mean. I didn't realize how video game AK's counting numbers were until I just looked them up.

 

Kirilloff per 162 from 4/14-5/3 (44 PA): 54 HR, 149 RBI, 108 R, .214 BA, .799 OPS

These were Barry Bonds level HR and RBI rates.

Maybe his cooling off is simply regression to offset that hot streak but the concern is that it is injury related since wrist issues hurt his power in the past in the minors. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ace_King said:

Kirilloff's BA is higher but not by much but Larnach's OBP laps Kirilloff's, which is why Larnach is batting high in the order now. Kirilloff was but then got dropped back. I agree with the pedigree difference and if I had to bet ROS I would bet on Kirilloff (I added AK to my major league roster but have not done the same with Larnach yet) but I can see why Larnach is batting 3rd and Kirilloff lower, although 7th seems too late.

I'm wondering if the Twins know his wrist issue has zapped his power and that's why they dropped him out of the middle of the order. 

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You're really cherry picking some small sample sizes to suit the argument there, but you have to disregard what he's done to this point to a certain extent and determine what he can do going forward. He should be better, because he can't be much worse, but will that better be good enough? It depends on what you need, he's a 3 or 4 category performer so this isn't an irreplaceable skillset. I'm scrutinizing him closely, but not writing him off yet. In 12 team leagues though he is very marginal, deeper than that he still needs to be owned. If he can't turn it on shortly after the ASB, dump him.

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Deep league owners are probably stuck with him.  

Bottom line:  Fantasy leagues are not won with rookies rostered.

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2 hours ago, BadHombre said:

I'm wondering if the Twins know his wrist issue has zapped his power and that's why they dropped him out of the middle of the order. 

That is what I fear. Before he got hurt he usually was batting 5th. A reason for optimism is when he returned they actually moved him up to 3rd which suggests they don't expect the wrist injury to affect his power. His performance caused him to drop, though. He essentially swapped spots with Larnach who went from 7th to 3rd.

2 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

You're really cherry picking some small sample sizes to suit the argument there

True very SSS, but it is inevitable since his career is such a small sample size and there is a clear split: he was raking before he got hurt but has had struggles since he returned. It could all be SSS noise that gets evened out over the course of a full season but it is all we have to work with right now.

Kirilloff did hit a double today so that is a sign of hope en route to going 2 for 4 with 2 RBI (Larnach hit a HR). In his last 11 games he has 1 HR, 2 doubles, and 1 triple. In the 17 games prior to that (after his return) his only extra base hits were 3 doubles. More small sample sizes but maybe he will be able to show power ROS.

 

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With all this nonsense of batting him 7th I've been pretty close to dropping and am sure others have, but was in the 3 hole yesterday and hit a bomb (and Rocco was gonna reward him with a day off today if the game didn't get cancelled.... -_-) 

And then you check the metrics for him and you remember why you've been holding this entire time.

kirilloff.png

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Another reason to hold onto him is he is hitting LHPs better than RHP.  

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Out of the lineup again today.  He is injured again or in a platoon for now.  It is irrelevant yesterday's game was rained out.  He had his off day.

Larnach and Arraez are in the lineup though even even though Kiriloff has hit LHP a lot better.   Have a feeling we might be getting an injury report.

It is possible his OF days are over which actually might be a good thing.

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  • 2 weeks later...

This thread has died. He doesn't look like the "league winner" several people were viewing him as before his injury but he seems to have settled in as a quality fantasy asset.

Kirilloff's per 162 line for the season (198 PA): 23 HR, 97 RBI, 65 R, .269 BA, .760 OPS. This includes him going hitless in his first 5 games. Here is his seasonal line minus those games.

Kirilloff's per 162 line minus first 5 games (184 PA): 26 HR, 108 RBI, 72 R, .291 BA, .820 OPS

Kirilloff's per 162 line since June 9 (85 PA): 24 HR, 93 RBI, 55 R, .300 BA, .841 OPS

It appears he struggled immediately after returning from the injury but rebounded quickly. He essentially has been the same guy all season, outside of the first 5 games of his career and the 2 1/2 weeks after his return from the wrist injury. 

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