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Alex Kirilloff 2021 Outlook


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Szymborski’s 2021 Breakout Candidates: Hitters

Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

The projection systems are low on Kirilloff, generally speaking, and it’s something I think is a mistake. From working with ZiPS over the years, I’m aware that there are certain things a projection system is going to struggle with, one of which is playing through nagging injuries. If Kirilloff had missed 100 games in 2019 with his wrist injury, the projection system would have understood that to an extent. But rather than a dramatic season-ending tear, the injury was more of the nagging type, and I think his poor Double-A numbers have a lot to do with him swinging at less than 100%.

The 2018 season is the only time Kirilloff has been healthy in a full season professionally, and he absolutely torched the ball in environments not conducive to offense. Given that he missed 2017 with Tommy John surgery, I was disappointed that the Twins didn’t get him into a game in 2020 until the playoffs. He’s too low on the ZiPS Top 100, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 30 homers in 2021. ZiPS only says 3.6% for that, but I think it’s closer to 25%.

 
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11 minutes ago, Strikeforce316 said:

Is he still needed this weekend?

 

thanks!

Kepler and Garlick will be out until next Friday at least.  Most likely yes.  He will have a short time to prove himself.

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4 minutes ago, swingbatter said:

will he play every day out of the gate?  

Yes absolutely. Sano is on the DL. That's another reason why he got called up. He is going to play every day. He could just run away with the job if he performs well. And Sano is kinda bad no offense. 

Miguel Sano will be placed on the 10-day injured list by the Twins with a right hamstring injury. 

Advice: Sano left Tuesday's game against the Athletics with tightness in the hamstring. The power-hitting infielder didn't play in either of the contests on Wednesday -- the Twins lost both games in a doubleheader -- and now he's heading for the injured list. The Twins will promote top prospect Alex Kirilloff on Friday in a corresponding move. 

Edited by Miketrout009
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2 minutes ago, Miketrout009 said:

Yes absolutely. Sano is on the DL. That's another reason why he got called up. He is going to play every day. He could just run away with the job if he performs well. And Sano is kinda bad no offense. 

Miguel Sano will be placed on the 10-day injured list by the Twins with a right hamstring injury. 

Advice: Sano left Tuesday's game against the Athletics with tightness in the hamstring. The power-hitting infielder didn't play in either of the contests on Wednesday -- the Twins lost both games in a doubleheader -- and now he's heading for the injured list. The Twins will promote top prospect Alex Kirilloff on Friday in a corresponding move. 

so he is going to play every day at 1B?  thought he was an OF.

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7 minutes ago, swingbatter said:

so he is going to play every day at 1B?  thought he was an OF.

Don't know where the article is but I remember reading that the Twins like Kiriloff's defense at 1B better than in the outfield. I think they called him 'above average' at 1B, but 'average' in the outfield. So it might actually be his preferred spot when Sano isn't there. Of course, we'll see where they play him.

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57 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

What kind of line are we expecting out of Kiriloff (assuming he sticks and plays regularly). Educate me.

Usable "foot soldier " type of stats seems to be the most likely outcome.   .265, 15 to 20 bombs, no speed, with more RBi than r because of his presuned lineup spot.  Although not sexy, it still very useful. Of course, his ceiling is better and a comp I've heard a lot of comps as Brantley with a bit more power.  Im hoping for  current charlie Blackmon ,but of course thats optimistic and it's always better to err on the side of caution with rookies. The hit tool will likely prevent him from being a total bust.  Myself personally,  I'm not expecting him to be a key contributor and won't start him until he adjusts a bit.

Edited by Cesare13
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51 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

What kind of line are we expecting out of Kiriloff (assuming he sticks and plays regularly). Educate me.

High HR/BA upside, but has lots of risk that could prevent that actualization this year. Probably won't draw many walks. Likely will struggle vs LHP this year. (Just because he's a lefty prospect that hasn't had lot of healthy game reps in years). LU spot will favor RBI over R. 

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8 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Usable "foot soldier " type of stats seems to be the most likely outcome.   .265, 15 to 20 bombs, no speed, with more RBi than r because of his presuned lineup spot.  Although not sexy, it still very useful. Of course, his ceiling is better and a comp I've heard a lot of comps as Brantley with a bit more power.  Im hoping for  current charlie Blackmon ,but of course thats optimistic and it's always better to err on the side of caution with rookies. The hit tool will likely prevent him from being a total bust.  Myself personally,  I'm not expecting him to be a key contributor and won't start him until he adjusts a bit.

Very helpful. So my take away is that he should probably be rostered in five OF leagues (even shallow ones), but three OF leagues not so much. He also seems like a perfectly fine place holder for someone like Kelenic. Not sexy, but playable.  

I'm not sure how everyone else feels, but outside of the top tier guys, OF has been a bit of dumpster fire this season. 

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8 hours ago, Miketrout009 said:

Dan Hayes of The Athletic confirms that Alex Kirilloff will be recalled on Friday to face the Pirates. 

 

Let's go!

Perfect matchup because he grew up just outside of Pittsburgh, lol. 

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Still batting 5th today.

I know I am going to get the standard "It's only a few games. Chill out." response but if a rookie is called up and doesn't hit well the first week he usually isn't fantasy relevant that season.  

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18 minutes ago, B&F said:

Still batting 5th today.

I know I am going to get the standard "It's only a few games. Chill out." response but if a rookie is called up and doesn't hit well the first week he usually isn't fantasy relevant that season.  

Based on what data?

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39 minutes ago, B&F said:

Still batting 5th today.

I know I am going to get the standard "It's only a few games. Chill out." response but if a rookie is called up and doesn't hit well the first week he usually isn't fantasy relevant that season.  

This is what a guy in my pool thought when Mike trout was called up and hit .150 or whatever his first 2 weeks.  He dropped him in a keeper and had to find a new hobby.

Edited by Cesare13
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He doesn’t have any data. 
Kiriloff is averaging 93 mph exit velo and has struck out three times in 10 PAs. Nothing alarming there. 
We know nothing more now than we did preseason about what kind of rookie season he’s going to have. 

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47 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

This is what a guy in my pool thought when Mike trout was called up and hit .150 or whatever his first 2 weeks.  He dropped him in a keeper and had to find a new hobby.

Just to be clear referring to what the poster said you replied to, Mike trout was not fantasy relevant that year (2011). The next year (2012) he got called up in late April and almost went 30/50. 

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8 hours ago, rabaak said:

Keeps hitting the ball hard for outs. 

Thank you...!! It's really good to know these things.  The box score can be scary and hopefully not tell the whole picture!

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