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Alex Kirilloff 2021 Outlook


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5 hours ago, B&F said:

Another nice game.

His < 2.3% walk rate and a little < 29 % K rate scare the heck out of me though.

Why? It's been 49PA. In the minors, he had a K% under 20% until this year, to go along with a walk rate over 5%.

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On 5/21/2021 at 5:27 PM, Cesare13 said:

He started out like 0-18 or something and then caught fire.  He’s a stat cast darling with off the charts hard hit% and barrels who hits to all fields and is hitting in the heart of a really good lineup.

Yup, plus he was a top prospect with a 70 grade for his hit tool and 60 power. 

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2 minutes ago, ZMan17 said:

Anyone seen how he's been looking? Is the wrist affecting his swing at all?

Good question.  Was wondering the same thing. 

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Don’t think his wrist is hurting his power. He had 2 HRs in his rehab stint and his exit velos have been fine, including a 106.9 MPH single today.

He is still a rookie so some inconsistency should be expected.

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2 for 5 with 2 RBI and a double yesterday.  Hopefully this is a sign the power is returning. He has been hitting fairly well, .283 since his return with a 89 RBI per 162 pace. The absence of power, though, has his OPS down at .674 during this time frame but as a poster above noted he showed power in his rehab games so it likely is more about him adjusting to pitchers' adjustments to him than it is about the wrist.

 

14 hours ago, street sharks said:

Really struggling against the offspeed stuff and it seems that's all pitchers are throwing him right now

Yeah, I caught a bit of the Twins' broadcast the other day and the commentator was saying pitchers are laying off fastballs to Kirilloff and Larnach. That's a sign of respect for their swings. Kirilloff is still hitting for average but has lacked power while Larnach has maintained power (mostly doubles, though) but his average remains low.

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Posted (edited)

What is this dudes deal? [...]

 

I did think he was playing over his head with the power but still, dude is nothing but waiver fodder right now

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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19 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

What is this dudes deal? [...]

 

I did think he was playing over his head with the power but still, dude is nothing but waiver fodder right now

Hardly waiver wire fodder. If you want to drop, go ahead. But his upside is there. 5 multi-hit games since returning from the IL on May 21st, too. Hopefully the wrist isn't an issue.

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He has been hitting decently but there has been a power outage since his return. In 17 games/69 PA he has a .266 BA and .631 OPS with 0 HR, although he does have 3 doubles. Is he at risk of being sent down when Buxton, Kepler return with Larnach being the rookie who stays up? Here are their per 162 paces since AK returned:

Kirilloff: .266 BA, .631 OPS, 48 R, 0 HR, 67 RBI

Larnach: .267 BA, 0.865 OPS, 65 R, 22 HR, 76 RBI

While their BA is almost identical their OBP is world's apart. Larnach is at .421 OBP and Kirilloff at 0.319.

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11 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

He has been hitting decently but there has been a power outage since his return. In 17 games/69 PA he has a .266 BA and .631 OPS with 0 HR, although he does have 3 doubles. Is he at risk of being sent down when Buxton, Kepler return with Larnach being the rookie who stays up? Here are their per 162 paces since AK returned:

Kirilloff: .266 BA, .631 OPS, 48 R, 0 HR, 67 RBI

Larnach: .267 BA, 0.865 OPS, 65 R, 22 HR, 76 RBI

While their BA is almost identical their OBP is world's apart. Larnach is at .421 OBP and Kirilloff at 0.319.

I said he's hardly waiver fodder, but yes, I might have been a bit too optimistic about his recovery. He even said he didn't want to make any changes with his swing and simply depend on pre and post game rehab to get by for the rest of the year. If surgery is 'inevitable', it's never a good sign.

But he's got the kind of upside you don't want to let go of, easily. Tough call.

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Tough call both for fantasy owners and the Twins. Kirllioff has more theoretical upside than Larnach but right now the latter has been outplaying the former.

In a keeper league AK is an obvious hold of course.

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Breaking News:

Twins placed OF Kyle Garlick on the 10-day injured list with a sports hernia.

The Twins just can't seem to catch a break in the outfield as the injuries continue to pile up there. Garlick had been pressed into extended action with the injuries to Byron Buxton, Jake Cave and Max Kepler. The 29-year-old was hitting .232/.280/.465 with five long balls, 10 RBI and a 32/6 K/BB ratio in 107 plate appearances.

One obstacle out of the way...

 

 

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17 hours ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

I said he's hardly waiver fodder, but yes, I might have been a bit too optimistic about his recovery. He even said he didn't want to make any changes with his swing and simply depend on pre and post game rehab to get by for the rest of the year. If surgery is 'inevitable', it's never a good sign.

But he's got the kind of upside you don't want to let go of, easily. Tough call.

Did he say surgery is inevitable?

 

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1 minute ago, B&amp;F said:

Did he say surgery is inevitable?

 

Well, it's a chronic injury, in which the Twins & Kirilloff plan to manage throughout the year, and by the sound of it, not expect Kirilloff to be free from potential setback. Kirilloff required a cortisone shot. I imagine further action will be taken in the offseason when Kirilloff doesn't have to compete. But for now, Kirilloff has said he 'feels normal' and he had a triple last night.

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8 minutes ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

Well, it's a chronic injury, in which the Twins & Kirilloff plan to manage throughout the year, and by the sound of it, not expect Kirilloff to be free from potential setback. Kirilloff required a cortisone shot. I imagine further action will be taken in the offseason when Kirilloff doesn't have to compete. But for now, Kirilloff has said he 'feels normal' and he had a triple last night.

Great.  Thank you for the information.  I wonder what the precedent is for a player getting a cortisone shot in his wrist and how they performed.

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Fwiw, Ryan zimmerman receieved 3 seperate cortisone shots in 2012 (shoulder, not wrist).  The first 2 didn't work, after the 3rd one, he went .321, 22,73 in 90 games.

 

Before the 3rd one, he was super close to "surgery, out for season."   I wouldn't make Kirilloff a plan A, but there is some predecent for cortisone shots working.

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