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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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On 4/24/2021 at 2:38 AM, Overlord said:

If we're going to cherry pick stats that take a heck of a lot longer than 43 plate appearances to stabilize then I will choose BABIP.

His BABIP after this last game is .273 (league average is about .300).  That is significantly UNLUCKY for Garcia as he has a +40% hardhit rate (league average is 35%) and a really impressive 22% barrel rate (league average is 8%). 

You know, this post was pretty tongue in cheek, but I guess he actually was significantly unlucky at the time!!!!

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Posted (edited)

Is anybody "selling high"? [...] I was somewhat relieved because this dude leads the league in hard hit balls. It may just be real. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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On 5/27/2021 at 5:13 PM, hgh22 said:

Is anybody "selling high"? [...] I was somewhat relieved because this dude leads the league in hard hit balls. It may just be real. 

I am considering it but can’t get myself to pull the trigger just yet. I don’t think I will sell unless I get a sure thing back. Yes batting average might dip a little, but this type of power is not easy to find. His nickname is el bombino for a reason.

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Posted (edited)

2

On 5/27/2021 at 8:13 AM, hgh22 said:

Is anybody "selling high"? [...] I was somewhat relieved because this dude leads the league in hard hit balls. It may just be real. 

You can't get fair value for a guy like Adolis because the bitterness over not having been the one to snag him for free drastically skews the perception of him among non-owners.

Edited by Overlord
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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

2

You can't get fair value for a guy like Adolis because the bitterness over not having been the one to snag him for free drastically skews the perception of him among non-owners.

I'm happy to hold him. 

These are the pickups that help win championships.

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Why would anyone want to "sell" a breakout star for yesterday's newspaper?  Never got that.  But I'm sure there were people who "sold high" on deGrom too back in the day.  And remember the Trevor Story thread here where the mantra from some was to sell high on him.  Man you live in fantasy baseball to find these hidden diamonds.  You don't trade them away.

In other news guess where Garcia will be hitting in his next series starting on Tuesday.  Some place called Coors.

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Ready for a little blind comparison:

A - .287 BA, 17 HR, 43 R, 35 RBI, 8 SB

B - .284 BA, 16 HR, 27 R, 41 RBI, 7 SB

C - .293 BA, 16 HR, 38 R, 37 RBI, 12 SB

D - .300 BA, 13 HR, 36 R, 32 RBI, 8 SB

Two of these were drafted in the first round. One is a perennially overlooked roto-stud and the third is Adolis. I know it’s a third of a season and the ride isn’t guaranteed to continue but it’s been fun to have him on the team this year.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mudrummer said:

Ready for a little blind comparison:

A - .287 BA, 17 HR, 43 R, 35 RBI, 8 SB

B - .284 BA, 16 HR, 27 R, 41 RBI, 7 SB

C - .293 BA, 16 HR, 38 R, 37 RBI, 12 SB

D - .300 BA, 13 HR, 36 R, 32 RBI, 8 SB

Two of these were drafted in the first round. One is a perennially overlooked roto-stud and the third is Adolis. I know it’s a third of a season and the ride isn’t guaranteed to continue but it’s been fun to have him on the team this year.

A and C have to be Tatis and Acuna, respectively. 

B is Adolis ... I know that his statline pretty well as I have a tattoo of his numbers for 2021 that I have to keep updating.

D is super tricky.   I am struggling to think of too many guys with those kind of counting stats that's also batting .300.  Is it Semien?

Edited by Overlord
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5 hours ago, Overlord said:

D'oh, I mixed up Tatis and Acuna! 

You got Semien  - pretty good!

A. Acuna (1st rounder)

B. Garcia (undrafted)

C. Tatis (1st rounder)

D. Semien (underrated)

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From FanTrax today Buy or Sell - Adolis García FOMO & Post, Post, Post-Hype Nick Pivetta (fantraxhq.com) :

Adolis García (OF – TEX)

Major FOMO here with Adolis García since I didn’t buy into him early in the season. Well, the toolsy outfielder crushes baseballs and keeps producing power and speed. This is a case of yet another former Cardinals outfielder performing well with a new team like Randy Arozarena for the Rays. However, I liked Arozarena a bit more heading into 2020. Can’t say García was even on my radar. In 2019 at Triple-A, García hit 32 home runs and 14 steals with a .253 batting average and a .818 OPS. 

I feel like I missed out on Adolis García with 16 HR, 27 R, 41 RBI, 6 SB, .286 BA, .911 OPS
-97 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 14)
-18.9% Barrel% (98th-percentile)
Though it comes with a
-41.2% O-Swing%🥴
-80.4% Z-Contact%
-69.7% Contact%#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/qNo3nDUeNV

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 1, 2021

 

Per FanGraphs, García rated as having plus raw power with 70-grade speed yet a 30-grade hit tool. So far in 2021, the raw power and speed are showing up with 16 home runs, 27 runs, 41 RBI, and six steals. Outside of the home runs and steals, the runs plus RBI stand out as quality numbers through two months into the season. Particularly with the RBI, García ranks 5th behind Rafael Devers among qualified hitters. Similar to Cole Irvin last week, García had an NFBC ADP at pick 740, meaning he’s a waiver wire league winner so far. Oh, and all of this production comes with a .285 batting average and .930 OPS heading into Wednesday.

Plate Discipline

Since Adolis García came somewhat out of nowhere, let’s dig into the underlying metrics to figure out whether we should buy or sell the hot start. García’s 41.2% O-Swing% stands out, meaning he’s chasing almost 11% above the league average of 30.8%. That said, it’s no surprise that García records a high 16.8% swinging-strike rate. García’s 80.4% Z-Contact% and 69.7% Contact% rank below the league average 83.6% Z-Contact% and 75.2% Contact%. Overall, we notice an aggressive approach for García, which sometimes happens with hitters that have a low-grade hit tool. Next, we’ll note the loud contact García makes. 

Batted Ball Data

As a power hitter, Adolis García uses a relatively pull-heavy (41.8%) and flyball (41%) approach. García boasts an 18.9% barrel rate (98th-percentile), 112.4 mph maximum exit velocity (87th-percentile), and 52.5% hard-hit rate (94th-percentile). Overall, elite numbers across the board. Oh, and García ranks 15th with a 96.9 mph exit velocity on FB/LD near Nelson Cruz and Kyle Schwarber. Good company right there.

buy or sell Adolis García Baseball Savant Data

Should We Buy or Sell Adolis García?

The hard-hit metrics don’t lie with the elite batted ball data, as it backs up the raw power grades. One other aspect to note for Adolis García involves his success against fastballs and breaking pitches. Currently, García rocks a .693 SLG and .458 wOBA against fastballs with a .600 SLG and .371 wOBA against breaking pitches. However, García struggles a bit against offspeed pitches with a .222 SLG and .181 wOBA. That said, it’s something to monitor moving forward if opposing pitchers adjust and change their gameplan against García. 

Oh what do you know, pitchers threw more breaking and offspeed pitches to García in May when compared to April. Although García didn’t crush breaking pitches as much, he still recorded a .533 slugging percentage in May. Meanwhile, García crushed fastballs in May with a .816 SLG. That tells us pitchers made adjustments yet García adjusted as well from April to May. A good sign so far that helps ease early-season hot streak concerns. 

buy or sell Adolis García Pitch Results Data

I’m buying into García’s hot start and you should just keep riding the wave unless someone offers you a high-end hitter or pitcher. However, it seems unlikely given his waiver wire status and maybe some other skeptics as I was early on. On the Razzball Player Rater, García ranks as the 6th overall player near Marcus Semien and Rafael Devers. Even if you could package García for an outfielder like Jesse Winker, it’s worth considering though García provides the speed that Winker doesn’t. Sure, there’s the risk of the batting average tanking with the high chase rate and lower contact rate, but as long as it doesn’t fall too low, García should fare just fine. 

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Yes, Garcia's offense is only part of his appeal (the part that matters to us fantasy seam-heads).

He's also really good defensively.  He's pulled at least 2 HR's back from over the wall that I know of (one was Mitch Haniger on May 27th. Can't remember who hit the other one) and it's plays like those and the diving catch above that have made Adolis a fan favorite in Texas and, really among every baseball fan...except maybe those that missed out on picking him up.

The home run robbery is only fair because he had his first Major League robbed by an umpire in April:

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia unfairly robbed of home run thanks to replay (nolanwritin.com)

 

Even if Leody Taveras was tearing it up in AAA (he's not), he'll never get CF back from Adolis.

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4 hours ago, billofwash said:

3 game series at Coors...0 rbi   1 run scored. [...] 

3 for 12 with 3 measly singles. Don't think that was what we hoped to see. OH well tomarrow he crushes 2 homers to make up for it.

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Just now, Overlord said:

SafeDistinctIriomotecat-max-1mb.gif

he will hit 2 tomarrow to make up for it since i am streaming fleming lol. i need him to be babe ruth ros and hit 60 homers  drive in 165. 

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