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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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Welp    edit: I deserve the 5 notifications I get daily from this thread 😞 

Also read where he is already preparing for the adjustments he knows he will need to make. He has been feasting on fastballs so far. He is going to begin seeing a steady diet of offspeed pitches and i

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On 4/16/2021 at 1:43 PM, hgh22 said:

This thread is gonna be 6 pages and he'll go 0-4 tonight and none of us will ever think of him again. 

Aging like the absolutely finest of milks.

Laid out two more dongs tonight and will be 100% owned in leagues by noon tomorrow.

Edited by Overlord
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I’m not sure he gets there but could be looking at a guy with 30+ home run potential unless pitches figure him out and he can’t adjust .

5 home runs in 43 PAs and he almost had a 6th that turned into a triple.

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7 hours ago, street sharks said:

Does he steal bags? [...]

He's fast, but not a great base stealer. But he's accumulated some steals in the minors. His poor success rate may limit what he does in MLB.

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Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

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10 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

No prospect pedigree also = Jacob deGrom.

.250 is better than average these days.  I'd take .250 any day with most any hitter and especially a power hitter.

Also I love me some "luck."  I'll take a "lucky" ball player any day too.

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

No prospect pedigree also = Jacob deGrom.

.250 is better than average these days.  I'd take .250 any day with most any hitter and especially a power hitter.

Also I love me some "luck."  I'll take a "lucky" ball player any day too.

250 is his celing imo.  

Feel free not to listen to me, though

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

 

If we're going to cherry pick stats that take a heck of a lot longer than 43 plate appearances to stabilize then I will choose BABIP.

His BABIP after this last game is .273 (league average is about .300).  That is significantly UNLUCKY for Garcia as he has a +40% hardhit rate (league average is 35%) and a really impressive 22% barrel rate (league average is 8%). 

Edited by Overlord
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3 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

I don’t think it’s that simple. If you play in a deep league like a 12-team, 5-outfielder league he absolutely is worth taking a shot on. The waiver wires in those leagues are barren, especially with all of the injuries so far. If he flames out so be it. But if he finishes with a .240 avg, 26 home runs, 6 steals, and good rbi totals that’ll be solid production from your 5th outfielder.

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4 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

a 30 point regression to a 338 WOBA isn't bad for a guy who is you giving you bombs and can steal some bags, and isn't THAT lucky. Ozzie Albies has a carer 337 WOBA and Im sure many people on your fantasy team have less than that.

He's pace for over 60 HR for 600 PA, obviously he'll regress.. Perhaps a lot. Still worth a flyer. Most competitive leagues he was owned a week or more ago.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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We might as well stop all conversation here and just make a link to Aristedes Aquinos 2019 page.  They are essentially the same exact mold of player and will probably have the exact same career path too.  Monster he numbers until pitchers figure out the hole in their swing. 

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7 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

We might as well stop all conversation here and just make a link to Aristedes Aquinos 2019 page.  They are essentially the same exact mold of player and will probably have the exact same career path too.  Monster he numbers until pitchers figure out the hole in their swing. 

It's certainly  a possible outcome, but I wouldn't say it's a guarantee.  Aquino was fine for a waiver wire pick until he wasn't.  I wouldn't trade the farm for Adolis, but for free he's been enticing. He's batting in a decent lineup spot. Also the difference between the two is we don't know what sort of development Garcia had last year. Garcia also dominated spring to where his manager said he looked like their best player.  Not sure that Aquino ever impressed that much.

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6 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

The k/bb is troubling but I’ve seen other guys do it with those rates for a season. I’m torn about this guy. I would only add if you have a sure drop and you can just drop Adolis a month later if he slumps

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4 hours ago, BradMaddox said:

Sustainable pace? This dude seems like a one month wonder

This thread will probably go 6 more pages and he'll go 0-4 tonight and none of us will ever think of him again ... ?

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9 hours ago, Overlord said:

If we're going to cherry pick stats that take a heck of a lot longer than 43 plate appearances to stabilize then I will choose BABIP.

His BABIP after this last game is .273 (league average is about .300).  That is significantly UNLUCKY for Garcia as he has a +40% hardhit rate (league average is 35%) and a really impressive 22% barrel rate (league average is 8%). 

5 of his 11 hits are HRs. If the HR/FB regresses from 50% to 30%. His BA would be .219. .243 if you add an extra hit for unlucky BABIP.

But for real, i'm not sue why we have a bunch of people looking at metrics off SSS. 2 of 3 different outcomes drastically change all the metrics. Ya'll need to chill.

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55 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

5 of his 11 hits are HRs. If the HR/FB regresses from 50% to 30%. His BA would be .219. .243 if you add an extra hit for unlucky BABIP.

But for real, i'm not sue why we have a bunch of people looking at metrics off SSS. 2 of 3 different outcomes drastically change all the metrics. Ya'll need to chill.

I hate saber metrics

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