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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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Welp    edit: I deserve the 5 notifications I get daily from this thread 😞 

Also read where he is already preparing for the adjustments he knows he will need to make. He has been feasting on fastballs so far. He is going to begin seeing a steady diet of offspeed pitches and i

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

Why not optimize success? 

Don’t know for sure that it would optimize anything. Perfectly happy with him hitting 4th and 5th. If he’s comfortable hitting there, leave him alone. He’s been very productive. 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Don’t know for sure that it would optimize anything. Perfectly happy with him hitting 4th and 5th. If he’s comfortable hitting there, leave him alone. He’s been very productive. 

i meant at some point guys like trout and betts and judge were hitting 8th or 9th and had success...prob should have just left them there too

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45 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i meant at some point guys like trout and betts and judge were hitting 8th or 9th and had success...prob should have just left them there too

Yeah but the difference is hitting 4th is a good thing. Honestly, he probably has more storm base upside as a clean up hitter too.

Since when is hitting 4th a bad thing? If rather have him hit 4 than 2, more RBI opps.

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23 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Yeah but the difference is hitting 4th is a good thing. Honestly, he probably has more storm base upside as a clean up hitter too.

Since when is hitting 4th a bad thing? If rather have him hit 4 than 2, more RBI opps.

Firstly, he's hitting 5th. Not 4th

Second, the argument is hitting 2nd or 3rd instead of 5th means ull get 50 or so more at bats per year

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39 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

Firstly, he's hitting 5th. Not 4th

Second, the argument is hitting 2nd or 3rd instead of 5th means ull get 50 or so more at bats per year

He actually bats 4th against lefty starters.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

SELL HIGH.  Now is the 100% best opportunity before his average drops about 60 points.  Power might be legit tho 

It'll definitely drop. Dunno about 60 points though. Hasn't struck out multiple times in a game since may 6th( 0 today), k rate has plummeted in last two weeks.

 

If you can actually sell high and get a very good player, I don't think that's bad advice. I just wouldn't sell to sell. For him to lose 60 points on his BA he'd have to hit like 210-220 for a while. He's hitting the ball hard and not strikeout currently.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

SELL HIGH.  Now is the 100% best opportunity before his average drops about 60 points.  Power might be legit tho 

I was thinking buy low...but to each their own

Edited by jfazz23
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The track record of 30% strikeout and 5% walk guys having a high average in the majors is... nobody?   And this is besides the fact that pitchers have barely had the ability to adjust to him.  Every single year there are guys that do well when first coming up and then they get adjusted on.  You can argue that Adolis will make counteradjustments, but until that K rate goes down a lot, that BA is 100% not sustainable.  

HIs xBA so far is 260.  This isn't a predictive metric, but it means from what he's done so far, he's overperforming his average by a lot.  And this is with him absolutely smoking the ball and pitchers not figuring him out yet, without his first MLB slump.

Successful sell highs are never slam dunks!  Otherwise you wouldn't be able to sell high.  I'm sure some people will be believers.  But if I was an owner, this would be the 100% the best time for me to get value.

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13 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 You can argue that Adolis will make counteradjustments, but until that K rate goes down a lot, that BA is 100% not sustainable.  

 

The k rate has gone down a lot, like I said above. He hasn't had a 2k game since may 6th. He's down to under 28% after today. Which means his k rate in these last two weeks has been even less than that. Pitchers could adjust as you said, but his k rate has been falling every day lately. 1 k in 4PA is 25 percent and he's had a few 0 k games and a few games with more than 4 PAs. 

 

You're right about the high average thing with the k rate,  but saying he's going to lose 60 points meaning he has to hit 210 or so for extended period, seems a little too much. If he's a 250-270 hitter with that power and speed, it's quite useful. 

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As much as I love what he's doing, the bottom is gonna fall out any day now. He might continue some roto production, but he's not a good hitter. Hope I'm wrong though 

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

The track record of 30% strikeout and 5% walk guys having a high average in the majors is... nobody?  

Over the course of his last 10 games he has a 15.7 % strikeout rate

Edited by PoundMyBeef
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His stat line since May 1st - 17 games:

68PA's - .324 AVG, 6HR, 10R, 16RBI, 4SB

Underlying stats: 22% K Rate, 7.4% BB rate, 73% contact rate. Some concern in his chase rate (44) but his O-contact is 62% (should note this is actually higher than Keston Hiura's actual contact rate). 

Those are all solid numbers.

The league will adjust, and has been adjusted. So far he is showing the ability to compete. I expect there will be struggles and slumps but this is a fun ride.

 

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13 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

Firstly, he's hitting 5th. Not 4th

Second, the argument is hitting 2nd or 3rd instead of 5th means ull get 50 or so more at bats per year

He's split half at 4 and half at 5 pretty much.

According to Fangraphs, the difference from 3rd to 5th is 25 plate appearances.

But it's not player appearances you want to maximize it is productivity opportunity, which is completely different. According to Bill James analysis of batting order positions, the most productive spot on the order is 4th, and the second most productive spot is 5th. https://www.billjamesonline.com/batting_order_position_values/

3rd is 3rd and second is further down the list. He's hitting in the two most productive spots and although you can make the case for 3rd being better than 5th, batting 2nd isn't close to 3-5 from a production standpoint. 

His lineup spot is fine. Maybe he gets bumped to 3rd soon but it's not as if hitting 4/5 is any determinant at all.

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14 hours ago, mudrummer said:

Also read where he is already preparing for the adjustments he knows he will need to make. He has been feasting on fastballs so far. He is going to begin seeing a steady diet of offspeed pitches and is already (per coaches) working on his approach. 

3 of his last 5 HR's have come on Sliders and he is hitting over .300 on breaking pitches.

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15 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

The track record of 30% strikeout and 5% walk guys having a high average in the majors is... nobody?   And this is besides the fact that pitchers have barely had the ability to adjust to him.  Every single year there are guys that do well when first coming up and then they get adjusted on.  You can argue that Adolis will make counteradjustments, but until that K rate goes down a lot, that BA is 100% not sustainable.  

HIs xBA so far is 260.  This isn't a predictive metric, but it means from what he's done so far, he's overperforming his average by a lot.  And this is with him absolutely smoking the ball and pitchers not figuring him out yet, without his first MLB slump.

Successful sell highs are never slam dunks!  Otherwise you wouldn't be able to sell high.  I'm sure some people will be believers.  But if I was an owner, this would be the 100% the best time for me to get value.

Newsflash...in April, his k% was 33.8 in 71 PAs, and his bb% was 4.2. 

In May, his k% is 22.1 and his bb% 7.4. 

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15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Newsflash...in April, his k% was 33.8 in 71 PAs, and his bb% was 4.2. 

In May, his k% is 22.1 and his bb% 7.4. 

Good to see him making adjustments. I don’t buy it at all

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Good to see him making adjustments. I don’t buy it at all

So he's making the adjustments and you dont buy it? Which is it? Because if you don't buy it, then he's not making actual adjustments.

He's a really hard player to profile because we didnt have a 2020 season and he's clearly improved.  It's not like you've scouted this guy for years, nobody has. Even regressing him back, he's still very likely a major leaguer. 

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

So he's making the adjustments and you dont buy it? Which is it? Because if you don't buy it, then he's not making actual adjustments.

He's a really hard player to profile because we didnt have a 2020 season and he's clearly improved.  It's not like you've scouted this guy for years, nobody has. Even regressing him back, he's still very likely a major leaguer. 

MLB is a constant game of adjustments and counter adjustments.  1 great month in the majors doesn’t do much for me.  It’s great to  see that he has a lower strikeout rate this month but considering his track record in the minors and his whiff tendencies overall I don’t see that and by extension his BA as sustainable.  As I said even with him in an absurd hot streak his xBa is at 260 which I do not think bodes well for his overall numbers and/or when he inevitably hits his first MLB slump 

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