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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

MLB is a constant game of adjustments and counter adjustments.  1 great month in the majors doesn’t do much for me.  It’s great to  see that he has a lower strikeout rate this month but considering his track record in the minors and his whiff tendencies overall I don’t see that and by extension his BA as sustainable.  As I said even with him in an absurd hot streak his xBa is at 260 which I do not think bodes well for his overall numbers and/or when he inevitably hits his first MLB slump 

260 BA with his power and speed is quite a good player in fantasy. Not sure you can trade him for the near first round talent he's performed as. I don't think relying on minor league numbers from 2 years ago is helpful in this situation, but I could be wrong. We'll see.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Welp    edit: I deserve the 5 notifications I get daily from this thread 😞 

Also read where he is already preparing for the adjustments he knows he will need to make. He has been feasting on fastballs so far. He is going to begin seeing a steady diet of offspeed pitches and i

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I don’t own him anywhere, if you can sell him for an absolute top tier player then go for it. If you’re selling him for just a mid tier bat, I’d just keep him. He’s shown the upside. Who knows if he keeps it up all year, but I’d much rather gamble on his success. 

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

260 BA with his power and speed is quite a good player in fantasy. Not sure you can trade him for the near first round talent he's performed as. I don't think relying on minor league numbers from 2 years ago is helpful in this situation, but I could be wrong. We'll see.

Yeah what I’m trying to say is that 260 is with him basically in a hot streak, what’s a cold streak going to be?  I hope I’m wrong though, he’s a cool story and exciting to watch play 

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49 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Good to see him making adjustments. I don’t buy it at all

Probably because you’re bent on wanting to be right that you don’t want to admit that you maybe, just might be wrong. I’m going to enjoy this ride for as long it stays on the rails, and if it comes off the rails, I’ll still be okay because he was a free agent pickup. 

I’m not saying he’s going to be a .300 hitter, but I am pointing out that you were in error in regards to his k and bb rates.

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Probably because you’re bent on wanting to be right that you don’t want to admit that you maybe, just might be wrong. I’m going to enjoy this ride for as long it stays on the rails, and if it comes off the rails, I’ll still be okay because he was a free agent pickup. 

I’m not saying he’s going to be a .300 hitter, but I am pointing out that you were in error in regards to his k and bb rates.

Of course I CAN be wrong, but I don’t think I will be.  It would be pretty unprecedented for someone with his track record and historical k rates and his peripherals to maintain it for a full season, good month ir not.   The only guy I can think of is someone like Trevor Story, who is a once in a generation player 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 It would be pretty unprecedented for someone with his track record and historical k rates and his peripherals to maintain it for a full season, good month ir not.

He doesn't even have much of a historical track record. I'm not sure what you're looking at. You're looking at one sample size of 2019 where you're spewing what you've seen there.  2 years ago.  He's obviously improved since. How much is up for debate.  His next biggest samples are 2017/2018 where his k rate was under 24%.  You're acting like this guy is coming off 5 straight minors years at a 35% k percentage, when he basically had 1 at 30% 2 years ago.  He doesn't have much of a track record and 2020 (the most recent year) isn't even there.

 

51 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Yeah what I’m trying to say is that 260 is with him basically in a hot streak, what’s a cold streak going to be?  I hope I’m wrong though, he’s a cool story and exciting to watch play 

 

No, 295 is him on a hot streak and thats his entire sample this year. 260 is taking some luck out of it.  If his profile stays about the same and he's unlucky because he's cold, his xba would probably be...260. That's how it works. You cant say he's a 260 hitter when he's hitting 295 and then imply he's well under the XBA when he's cold and less lucky

Weather is about to heat up too....

Edited by brockpapersizer
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According to FG, it takes 910 ABs for BA to stabilize - why are we even discussing xBA for a dude who’s been playing maybe four weeks so far?!

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, BMcP said:

According to FG, it takes 910 ABs for BA to stabilize - why are we even discussing xBA for a dude who’s been playing maybe four weeks so far?!

Probably trying to justify the following comment.

 

On 4/24/2021 at 1:32 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

What's funny is a 338 woba is pretty solid, not great, but like if a team's worst player had a 338 WOBA that would be such an amazing team. 338 WOBA is currently the 75th best hitter in baseball.  And he's been a lot better since this comment.

bPmN9q7.png

 

Adolis Garcis is at currently at 390 with an expected of 363, which is a top 40 hitter.  And that doesn't even factor steals for your fantasy team. The actual 390 is top 20.  So even with plenty of regression he'd still be a major leaguer and worth hitting where the Rangers are hitting him. 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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We just need to have a pinned thread on stabilization rates for all common metrics at the top of this forum.

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On 4/24/2021 at 1:32 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

Please don't pick this guy up

  • No prospect pedigree
  • Horrific K/BB rate
  • Is going to rank your batting average, 250 is pretty much his ceiling
  • Has already gotten lucky in his his sample so far (WoBA: 368, xWoBA: 338)

Feeling pretty confident about this one

giphy.webp

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6 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Of course I CAN be wrong, but I don’t think I will be.  It would be pretty unprecedented for someone with his track record and historical k rates and his peripherals to maintain it for a full season, good month ir not.   The only guy I can think of is someone like Trevor Story, who is a once in a generation player 

Well, while you’re busy worrying about his “historical k rates” (hyperbole much...I mean really...lol), his k rate is heading in the right direction, as is his bb rate. I’m imagining you still predicting his 2021 downfall on Sept 25. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Held hitless today.  The downfall starts now!

You're hitless in this thread. At least he had a run. 0-3 with 1k in a game where his team got no hit 🥱.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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25 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Held hitless today.  The downfall starts now!

This has to be a joke?!  😂 2-time Cy Young-award winner throwing a no-hitter?  
 

The self-styled deity of Fbaseball has spoken.  

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

This has to be a joke?!  😂 2-time Cy Young-award winner throwing a no-hitter?  
 

The self-styled deity of Fbaseball has spoken.  

It was a joke considering the no-hitter but I thought that was obvious lol

In all seriousness, I do find it kind of alarming at how empassioned people seem to be about Garcia haha.  Like, from your perspective, one whackadoole thinks he's going to regress, you probably shouldn't care that much.   In a couple months we'll see who was right, and that's that.  It's quite possible I'm wrong, it's happend before.  A lot.  lol

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

It was a joke considering the no-hitter but I thought that was obvious lol

In all seriousness, I do find it kind of alarming at how empassioned people seem to be about Garcia haha.  Like, from your perspective, one whackadoole thinks he's going to regress, you probably shouldn't care that much.   In a couple months we'll see who was right, and that's that.  It's quite possible I'm wrong, it's happend before.  A lot.  lol

Is it alarming or laugh-out-loud funny?  The two don’t normally go hand in hand.

To be clear, it matters not a whit to me whether an anonymous individual happens to disagree with me on an Internet forum - but as a word of advice, I think people would be more likely to find you credible if you explained your rationale for predicting a severe regression without using a statistic that hasn’t come close to stabilizing.  (Or maybe explaining why you persist in so doing regardless?)

Edited by BMcP
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9 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Good to see him making adjustments. I don’t buy it at all

Randal Grichuk went from a 31 % K hitter into an 18 % K hitter in the span of 7 years. It took Adolis 20 games to accomplish that feat.

 

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10 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Of course I CAN be wrong, but I don’t think I will be.  It would be pretty unprecedented for someone with his track record and historical k rates and his peripherals to maintain it for a full season, good month ir not.   The only guy I can think of is someone like Trevor Story, who is a once in a generation player 

Minor league stats are just that.  Yesterday's newspaper.  He has already proved he is better than that.  That is because he is a learning, growing human and not a static stat book.

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

Is it alarming or laugh-out-loud funny?  The two don’t normally go hand in hand.

To be clear, it matters not a whit to me whether an anonymous individual happens to disagree with me on an Internet forum - but as a word of advice, I think people would be more likely to find you credible if you explained your rationale for predicting a severe regression without using a statistic that hasn’t come close to stabilizing.  (Or maybe explaining why you persist in so doing regardless?)

As I have said multiple times I am not using xBA as a predictive measure (it's been shown that xstats aren't predictive in any case besides xwoba).  Xba can say what you should have been getting based on your production so far, though, so he's gotten lucky in the batting average department so far.  And I just think this is an ominous sign for somebody who pitchers have barely been able to adjust to, and who has basically been riding a hot streak since the season started.  I think it does not bode well for when he first gets a slump (but really, it's more his lack of prospect pedigree + k rate current and historical (even if improved for the last couple of weeks) + limited time in the majors that makes me worried about when he hits a slump)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

As I have said multiple times I am not using xBA as a predictive measure (it's been shown that xstats aren't predictive in any case besides xwoba).  Xba can say what you should have been getting based on your production so far, though, so he's gotten lucky in the batting average department so far.  And I just think this is an ominous sign for somebody who pitchers have barely been able to adjust to, and who has basically been riding a hot streak since the season started.  I think it does not bode well for when he first gets a slump (but really, it's more his lack of prospect pedigree + k rate current and historical (even if improved for the last couple of weeks) + limited time in the majors that makes me worried about when he hits a slump)

Guys over perform and under perform the xBA measure all the time, it doesn't mean they are "lucky". Garcia is hitting 288, his xBA is 269... A 19 point difference... 75 players are over performing by a greater amount, and 108 players are under performing by a greater amount -- that's 183 players with greater variances so far, out of an eligible pool of 306 players, so essentially 60% of the pool has a greater variance than him... in fact, there's only 37 players (12%) in the eligible pool that have a BA within +/- 5 points of their xBA.

So when put in context it doesn't really mean much really... He isn't performing at a level that xBA shows is not sustainable.

Edited by StevieStats
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2 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

As I have said multiple times I am not using xBA as a predictive measure (it's been shown that xstats aren't predictive in any case besides xwoba).  Xba can say what you should have been getting based on your production so far, though, so he's gotten lucky in the batting average department so far.  And I just think this is an ominous sign for somebody who pitchers have barely been able to adjust to, and who has basically been riding a hot streak since the season started.  I think it does not bode well for when he first gets a slump (but really, it's more his lack of prospect pedigree + k rate current and historical (even if improved for the last couple of weeks) + limited time in the majors that makes me worried about when he hits a slump)

Prospect pedigree isn’t really a valid argument either. Can think of a couple players without prospect pedigree that turned out alright. One guy by the name of Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round. He didn’t have the prospect pedigree… but to be fair he did regress. Only took him about 15 years though.. 

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5 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Guys over perform and under perform the xBA measure all the time, it doesn't mean they are "lucky". Garcia is hitting 288, his xBA is 269... A 19 point difference... 75 players are over performing by a greater amount, and 108 players are under performing by a greater amount -- that's 183 players with greater variances so far, out of an eligible pool of 306 players, so essentially 60% of the pool has a greater variance than him... in fact, there's only 37 players (12%) in the eligible pool that have a BA within +/- 5 points of their xBA.

So when put in context it doesn't really mean much really... He isn't performing at a level that xBA shows is not sustainable.

It does, almost definitionally, mean he’s been lucky.  You’re right that someone can be lucky and also have something be sustainable, but I don’t think that’s the case for Garcia with the conditions I’ve already stated.  I honestly don’t know how many times I can repeat that I’m not trying to say Xba is a future predictor of sustainability.  Xstats are NOT predictive in ANY case (besides marginal predictability in XWoba)  

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

Prospect pedigree isn’t really a valid argument either. Can think of a couple players without prospect pedigree that turned out alright. One guy by the name of Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round. He didn’t have the prospect pedigree… but to be fair he did regress. Only took him about 15 years though.. 

This is just getting into nonsense territory at this point.  You’re trying to tell me that you wouldn't be more confident in sustainable success in a prospect that’s succeeded in the minors and ranked highly than someone who wasn’t?  You wouldn’t have more misgivings from someone coming out of absolute nowhere and having a good 1.5 months than a heralded prospect who was ~expected to do it? We’re getting into borderline bad faith now 

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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[ Post removed.  Regardless of whether a player was a first round pick or a waiver grab, it's fine to debate whether their production so far is indicative of underlying skill or just a hot streak as long as that debate remains respectful.  If you have a problem with the way a discussion is going, you can PM us, but it's not OK to come in SCREAMING with LOTS of CAPITAL LETTERS about how people are debating a player's outlook in a way you do not approve of. ]

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