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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

It does, almost definitionally, mean he’s been lucky.  You’re right that someone can be lucky and also have something be sustainable, but I don’t think that’s the case for Garcia with the conditions I’ve already stated.  I honestly don’t know how many times I can repeat that I’m not trying to say Xba is a future predictor of sustainability.  Xstats are NOT predictive in ANY case (besides marginal predictability in XWoba)  

No it absolutely does not mean he's lucky. xBA is an estimation, it is not the end all be all of what should be a hit and just because you get a hit on something the estimation assumes a lower hot probably or should be an out doesn't mean you were lucky to get that hit.

For instance, if you see an infielder cheating towards the line on you and you rip it to the 5-6 hole, that's not luck, even if the data suggests it should be an out... 

I didn't say anything about using xBA as a predictor, I just looked at what the context of that xBA was by stating what the spread was too his BA and how that compares. Every player is going to have a difference between his xBA and BA very few even out, especially with all the defensive shifting and everything that happens today using a metric that is designed to take defense out of the equation means less and less.

Outperforming xBA =/= Lucky

I will say though, I do appreciate you as a breath of fresh air in this thread not buying Garcia, love to see all sides and at the end of the day you could be right. Always good to have at least someone challenge a players sustainability.

Edited by StevieStats
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Not sure if this is bold or not, but I do believe he is going to be somewhere in between Luis Robert and Yasiel Puig. I think he will be closer to Robert than Puig.

I see this guy as a solid player and do not see him anything like Aquino. If you want to sell high, do it. If you want to sell to sell, don't do it. I do see him ending the season around .270+, 30 hrs, 20 sbs, over .850 OPS.

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Guys. When we are trying to figure out what a player will keep doing. We use imperfect tools because guess what? Human beings cannot accurate predict the future.

Pointing out that metrics have flaws in a vacuum doesn't mean much. The question is, is what he is currently doing (.295 BA) more predictive then xBA. 

You can make an argument the confidence level in xBA should be lower with a 1 month sample(I agree). Yet the BA sample is also too small. 

We have to make judgements on imperfect data. So dismissing xBA outright is also kinda naïve. Should be apart of valuation. You just need to include other variables in your analysis and not use xBA as a monoethnic determination that he is being lucky.

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8 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 I think it does not bode well for when he first gets a slump 

Yes, when he slumps, it will not be good, just like when any player slumps. Slumps are bad. Agreed. 

 

When he ha da .338 XWOBA on page 2 or whatever, you were pounding your chest about this being lucky and that you were confident you were right. He rode his woba up to .390. He was significantly better than when you said he sucked.

Please remember, he has to be significantly worse than where he was on page 2 for you to be right, not just a cool down from  where is he even higher now. Everyone cools off eventually, no doubt about that, but bottom line is, he seems like a major league so far, even with a cool down. A 250 hitter with very goo power an decent steals is quite valuable in fantasy baseball. 

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Honestly in shallow leagues, unless you can bundle him to get first round talent, these are the kinds of players you hold. Say if you were to swap him for a classic buy-low in Ozuna, do you think you're better of riding the production from Garcia and dropping for the next hot bat, or having Ozuna clog up a spot while waiting for him to start producing?

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Posted (edited)

Free players who produce are nice. I haven't seen anyone advocating trading significant assets to get himself. Everyone seems pretty level headed besides one guy trying his hardest to say he's a much below average major league player and the few people 💩posting gifs because they are excited. 

This game is likely over today 1-4 with 1k. Still hasn't struck out multiple times in a game since may 6th. The streak was almost over as he was facing Chapman in the 9th with his 19 k/9. What did Aroldis do?

 

 

Not bad. Strikeout rate went down today again.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Hit an absolute rocket off Chapman (112 off the bat is what the announcers said) that unfortunately Gardner didn't have to take one step in order to catch.  

The GOAT was quiet today, but I doubt that lasts long.  

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Props to this thread for forcing me to learn the definition of “monoethnic.”

Obviously I was going for monolithic, but make a cheap joke that undercuts my credibility.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Obviously I was going for monolithic, but make a cheap joke that undercuts my credibility.

Whoa!  Easy - I honestly didn’t know you meant that - my apologies.  I was honestly happy to learn a new word!  I always value your insights!  Keep up the good work!

**off to look up monolithic...

Edited by BMcP
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24 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Obviously I was going for monolithic, but make a cheap joke that undercuts my credibility.

Yeah I didn't think he was taking a cheap shot at you. You're overestimating the vocabulary level of people on a fantasy message board, me included. I looked both up as well.

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Posted (edited)

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

This may sound crazy, but if a guy whiffs a lot and chases a lot, there’s probably a good chance he has a weakness that can be exploited.  I know he’s trending in the right direction but I’m gonna still preach and say if you have him sell as high as you can sooner rather than later.

Edited by tonycpsu
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14 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

This may sound crazy, but if a guy whiffs a lot and chases a lot, there’s probably a good chance he has a weakness that can be exploited.  I know he’s trending in the right direction but I’m gonna still preach and say if you have him sell as high as you can sooner rather than later.

Teoscar Hernandez

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30 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

This may sound crazy, but if a guy whiffs a lot and chases a lot, there’s probably a good chance he has a weakness that can be exploited.  I know he’s trending in the right direction but I’m gonna still preach and say if you have him sell as high as you can sooner rather than later.

What are his whiff and chase rates right now? Because he’s already cutting down on his k rate and increasing his bb rate. 

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7 hours ago, mrfrood said:

Not sure if this is bold or not, but I do believe he is going to be somewhere in between Luis Robert and Yasiel Puig. I think he will be closer to Robert than Puig.

I see this guy as a solid player and do not see him anything like Aquino. If you want to sell high, do it. If you want to sell to sell, don't do it. I do see him ending the season around .270+, 30 hrs, 20 sbs, over .850 OPS.

This is literally a first round pick lmao, like this is Story/Ramirez line 

The hype is out of control folks 

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Posted (edited)

I have this kid in both of my leagues, so I'm biased obviously... but all of these numbers and metrics thrown around make it seem like he has a 4-5 year history and thus must regress back to something tangible. Maybe he's developing fast @ this level unlike most. Maybe he's putting in extra work (as reported) and willing to buck the trend of young players just trying to get by on athletic ability.

[...] The truth is, he checks most boxes on the eyeball test and has been nothing short of fantastic! Ride the lightning, and let time tell how this turns out, but he's fun to watch and kicking a** so far.

Edited by tonycpsu
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6 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This is literally a first round pick lmao, like this is Story/Ramirez line 

The hype is out of control folks 

It’s ok to just affirm that you think it’s bold, like he suggested it might be

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4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This is literally a first round pick lmao, like this is Story/Ramirez line 

The hype is out of control folks 

Whatever would we do without you keeping us restrained...eyeroll. Not sure what avg he ends up with, but 30 HR and 15 SB is very much within reach. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

 

Don't know why I have to keep saying this, but apparently I do because people keep coming into this thread talking about this guy like he's a windmill, but he hasn't struck out twice in a game since May 6th. Went against some decent staffs and relievers in that time span too.  Maybe he starts struggling again with that, but right now his contact rate has improved tremendously in the last few weeks.  And for those say "well, it's just a couple weeks", I'm not really sure what you think he is. This guy doesn't have a long history. You're looking at one year in 2019 when he struck 30% 2 years ago.  I don't know how anyone is confidently saying "he's going to be back to the guy he was".  He's obviously improved since 2019. His K-rate in 2017/2018 in the minors were in the low 20s.  He hit 32 bombs in 2019 too, so maybe he was just swinging his hardest at everything that year to try and get promoted.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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10 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This is just getting into nonsense territory at this point.  You’re trying to tell me that you wouldn't be more confident in sustainable success in a prospect that’s succeeded in the minors and ranked highly than someone who wasn’t?  You wouldn’t have more misgivings from someone coming out of absolute nowhere and having a good 1.5 months than a heralded prospect who was ~expected to do it? We’re getting into borderline bad faith now 

I am in no way trying to tell you that. Just trying to make a point that stating that a guy has no prospect pedigree is not a great argument as to why he sucks or will end up sucking (or regressing to mediocre). If this were 2001 and we viewed Pujols that way when he came up… you could’ve missed out on the best player of his generation. That’s all I was trying to point out. It’s just not a valid argument in my case. But if we are comparing prospect A that’s been ranked in the top 50 the past couple years vs prospect B that’s been unranked/unheard of for his entire career, obviously prospect A seems to be the safer choice.. but then again it’s not as simple as that when comparing prospects. Like it was previously stated, players are dynamic and make adjustments, not just static/predictable items.. it happens frequently - players make huge jumps and huge falls in top 100 rankings in very short periods of time. 

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51 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Don't know why I have to keep saying this, but apparently I do because people keep coming into this thread talking about this guy like he's a windmill, but he hasn't struck out twice in a game since May 6th. Went against some decent staffs and relievers in that time span too.  Maybe he starts struggling again with that, but right now his contact rate has improved tremendously in the last few weeks.  And for those say "well, it's just a couple weeks", I'm not really sure what you think he is. This guy doesn't have a long history. You're looking at one year in 2019 when he struck 30% 2 years ago.  I don't know how anyone is confidently saying "he's going to be back to the guy he was".  He's obviously improved since 2019. His K-rate in 2017/2018 in the minors were in the low 20s.  He hit 32 bombs in 2019 too, so maybe he was just swinging his hardest at everything that year to try and get promoted.

Since then he has also changed organizations which means different developmental factors he’s been exposed to. Likely for the better.. Also Texas has seemingly done terrific lately in developing one of the more underrated and deep farm systems in the game and are only continuing in the right direction with recent hires (I.e., Chris Young). 

Now I don’t like talking about work on here since it always appears like I’m boasting (which I most certainly not) but I work at the spring training facility that hosts the rangers and royals in AZ and sometimes am luckily enough to get up-close action and kind of behind the scenes looks at some of their practices, dynamics, development approaches, etc. During spring, unfortunately no fans were allowed into the practices but from what I saw, The organization believed in this guy. Although he was DFA’d before spring, he was with the big league team and grouped with the team’s top players all throughout spring. He’s an athletic specimen up close. But from my very observant perspective, they treated Adolis like a player with special talent, like one of their best players. They knew what they had in him was special. Just my two cents from my observations. 

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Some of you guys in here are hating, whether it be you missed out or do not want to jinx things. I see a solid player getting solid at bats especially as of late as Brrrrrrock has mentioned. He is not looking over matched. 

Would it be surprising it he does better than Arozarena this year? It wouldn't be to me. 

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Rangers had the same type of guy in 2019, Danny Santana. Danny did sustain it a full year, but I was skeptical the entire time. Garcia's K/BB is not good and has never been good, which is typically a clear indicator of not good things. If he continues anything close to what he's doing, it will be an outlier. I agree with the sell high crowd, although I doubt it can be done in knowledgeable leagues. 

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