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Adolis Garcia 2021 Outlook


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Welp    edit: I deserve the 5 notifications I get daily from this thread 😞 

Also read where he is already preparing for the adjustments he knows he will need to make. He has been feasting on fastballs so far. He is going to begin seeing a steady diet of offspeed pitches and i

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8 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

This may sound crazy, but if a guy whiffs a lot and chases a lot, there’s probably a good chance he has a weakness that can be exploited.  I know he’s trending in the right direction but I’m gonna still preach and say if you have him sell as high as you can sooner rather than later.

Modern baseball they all have higher strikeout rates by far.  It is the era of the three true outcomes after all.  But if you read some of the posts above you will see that this guy's K rate is more than fine these days and is getting better.

7 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This is literally a first round pick lmao, like this is Story/Ramirez line 

The hype is out of control folks 

I remember when Trevor Story came up there were a couple of people that bashed him all year long much to the delight and entertainment of the rest of us.  Good times with Story holding some kind of record for number of pages on this site for a rookie or something.  Thread was always good for a laugh before I went out to admire the homers he was giving me in my league back then.  Now this thread is seeming like Trevor Story: The Sequel Thread at this point.  😎

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From Fantasy Six Pack by Trent Dickeson:

Adolis Garcia has been one of the better stories in 2021. His 145 wRC+, .382 wOBA, and slash of .287/.329/.559 with eleven home runs, twenty runs, and thirty RBIs have made him the Fantasy Baseball waiver wire find of the year so far. His Baseball Savant page supports the type of player he currently is:

  • xBA- .269
  • xSLG- .528
  • xwOBA- .367
  • xwOBAcon- .493

He will strike out a decent bit, but if he makes contact, the ball is flying off his bat.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Donged off Cole. Barreled off Chapman.Seems good. 

he missed that chapman homerun by about 5 feet if i remember correctly

 

think hes half decent

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

he missed that chapman homerun by about 5 feet if i remember correctly

 

think hes half decent

Nah it was much more than five feet, but he rocketed it off the bat, it just happened to go right where Garnder was. Could have been a double or triple quite easily though.

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On 5/20/2021 at 6:22 PM, BackyardBaseball said:

[...] feels like fbaseball needs some backup in here.

All I gotta say is find me a player that has sustained an above average woba with whiff rates, chase rates and walk rates like adolis has right now.  Baez is the only one I can think of and feel like he’s an exception that shouldn’t be hoped for.

This may sound crazy, but if a guy whiffs a lot and chases a lot, there’s probably a good chance he has a weakness that can be exploited.  I know he’s trending in the right direction but I’m gonna still preach and say if you have him sell as high as you can sooner rather than later.

These are good points, but on the other hand:

 

giphy.webp

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Besides the two xbh including walk off homer, 0 ks in 5 at bats. He's lowered his k rate for the season in every game but one since 5/6, and that was the no hitter where he struck out one time.

Confidently projecting this guy based on one minor league season 2 years ago is not good fantasy baseballing 😬

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Besides the two xbh including walk off homer, 0 ks in 5 at bats. He's lowered his k rate for the season in every game but one since 5/6, and that was the no hitter where he struck out one time.

Confidently projecting this guy based on one minor league season 2 years ago is not good fantasy baseballing 😬

There is always a Götterdämmerung

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26 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Besides the two xbh including walk off homer, 0 ks in 5 at bats. He's lowered his k rate for the season in every game but one since 5/6, and that was the no hitter where he struck out one time.

Confidently projecting this guy based on one minor league season 2 years ago is not good fantasy baseballing 😬

I think he might be this year's Muncy/Voit

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2 minutes ago, Kaytwo said:

So if I understand this thread correctly, this guy sucks but he’s also a league winner?

That is correct.

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3 hours ago, Kaytwo said:

So if I understand this thread correctly, this guy sucks but he’s also a league winner?

To be fair this guy is a bit of a unicorn in the history of baseball. There aren’t many guys that receive a total of 24 plate appearances through their age 27 seasons and then suddenly perform as an all star in their age 28 season. In just 4 weeks I’m guilty of going from “he’s worth owning in all leagues” to “he’s Aquino 2.0” to where I’m at right now which is this guy’s a real talent and a legit breakout. It’s fair to question how sustainable this is but he’s getting better on a weekly basis and we don’t see that very often. Pitchers aren’t figuring him out, he’s figuring them out.

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8 minutes ago, meh2 said:

To be fair this guy is a bit of a unicorn in the history of baseball. There aren’t many guys that receive a total of 24 plate appearances through their age 27 seasons and then suddenly perform as an all star in their age 28 season. In just 4 weeks I’m guilty of going from “he’s worth owning in all leagues” to “he’s Aquino 2.0” to where I’m at right now which is this guy’s a real talent and a legit breakout. It’s fair to question how sustainable this is but he’s getting better on a weekly basis and we don’t see that very often. Pitchers aren’t figuring him out, he’s figuring them out.

So two unicorns just in the last couple? I love unicorns - great!

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4 hours ago, meh2 said:

 In just 4 weeks I’m guilty of going from “he’s worth owning in all leagues” to “he’s Aquino 2.0” to where I’m at right now which is this guy’s a real talent and a legit breakout. 

My thing has always been, he could be any of those things, but we just don't know.  Anyone confidently predicting him to be anything 4-6 weeks ago was talking out of their butts. He never had a full  run in the majors.  His last data point was 2 years ago. He very obviously has changed some things since then.  

 

 

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From The Dynasty Guru this morning:

ADOLIS GARCÍA, OF, TEX

PHIL BARRINGTON

28-year-old, Cuban-born, Adolis García is straight owning the 2021 season so far. The 13th overall player on the Razzball player rater as of today, García has shown no signs of slowing down. A quick backstory: García first left Cuba for Japan, then after a lackluster time there wound up in the St. Louis Cardinals system, appearing in 17 forgettable plate appearances during the 2018 season. Designated for assignment by the Cardinals after the 2019 season, his contract was purchased by the Rangers that December. Seven plate appearances in 2020 did not tell us anything about how 2021 would go. So the Rangers went with Leody Tavares in centerfield to start the 2021 season. Injuries allowed García to play both left and right field in early April, until Tavares’ ineptitude forced the Rangers to go with García as the team’s starting centerfielder, and number four or five-hitter every day and all he has done in mash.

García has hit eleven home runs, five steals, and a slash line of .288/.331/.568 thus far. He weirdly has only two doubles, and while his K% is above average at 28% and he has been caught stealing three times, nothing shows that the Rangers will not continue to let him take his hacks and attempts stealing bases with regularity. His StatCast percentile rankings are beautiful, as García is in the top 93% in exit velocity, 96% hard hit%, barrel % of 94%, and xSLG of 85%. He is hitting the ball wicked hard and squaring up like no one’s business. His heat map thus far shows a hitter who is crushing pitches in the middle to low area of the strike zone, and even low- and inside pitches. Pitches up are his biggest issue thus far, so look for pitchers to target him up as the season progresses. García’s improved as the season has continued as well, and he is hitting better against left-handed pitchers (6 HRs, .298 avg) than right-handed ones thus far (5 HRs, .280 avg). As long as he gets some (any) protection, he will try to prevent the Rangers from getting no-hit again this season. García went undrafted in most leagues but may very well be the add that wins them. In Dynasty leagues, I am holding unless a top-20 player is being discussed, but if you are loaded at Outfield, you could explore options.

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His K rate in May now stands at 21.3% ranking him just outside the top 100 in terms of K rate for batters with at least 50 PA’s in the month. 
 

For some perspective here are a few hitters who have a worse K rate in May:

- Justin Turner

- Nelson Cruz

- JD Martinez

- Ronald Acuna

- Yermin Mercedes

All that to say the swing and miss that most people want to see hasn’t really been there for a month. There is a difference between extrapolating on a small sample and recognize actual differences in a plate approach. Even elite hitters have slumps, that’s baseball. Garcia will have his this year. But he has shown me enough where I have moved from a “sell high” posture to a “hold” approach. It would take a pretty big offer to tempt me at this point. 

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I know this is crazy talk, but perhaps when he said he was preparing to adjust he meant it. That walk-off last night with the celebration gave me chills. The guy is basically prime Puig but likable.

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