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Julio Jones 2021 Outlook


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Well, this team was desperate for a WR.

If you're the type of person who doesn't mind an "elite WR in the twilight of his career with a possible chronic career debilitating injury but is too early to confirm" gamble this seems like your kind of bet.

Gonna be too rich for my blood but I wish y'all luck.

 

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Julio will have a wide range of ADP in my opinion, spanning from (12 Team PPR) anywhere in the 4th to the 6th round.  Any earlier than that, seems like a reach to me.

When I look at Julio on the Titans, it makes me think of Evans on the Bucs.  There will be weeks where he absolutely eats and weeks where he disappears, as Henry and/or Brown get all the love.  It will be a slightly up/down frustrating season for fantasy owners, even in 100% health, but at the end of the year, will have solid numbers for overall position.

However, 4th round means he needs to be 100% healthy.  If we start talking about nagging injuries, or risks... why Julio over Evans?

If we talk about run first teams, with elite WRs with injury concerns, we can skip down to OBJ in the 6th.  why Julio over OBJ?

If we talk about boom/bust performances based on the guy on the other side of the field, Lockett in the 5th, was #8 WR overall last year... why Julio over Lockett?

A strong argument could be made Julio wins all 3 of the above.  But a strong argument could be made he loses all 3 of the above.

Because of that, in the realm of Fantasy and how draft day works... just the few people I mentioned above, along with at least a few more (Theilan, Golladay, Amari) the smart play is to take the cheaper of them, and use your 4th/5th on a different position entirely.  This is tiered ranking and opportunity cost at its finest.  Give me the 4th round RB, and the 5th or 6th round WR over the inverse this year.

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9 hours ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

Yeah I agree. The team really isn't any better with adding Julio Jones.

? The Titans are definitely better with another elite WR...

I just dont think its a great landing spot for Julio Fantasy wise.....because of they run alot and Tannehil isnt a Gunslinger...

If he went to Seattle I would be more excited..Its a downgrade going from the Falcons to the Titans.... His ADP would need to fall significantly for me to draft him. Dude will probably only last 3 weeks anyways.

 

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Posted (edited)

Don't' know if this has been said but the Titans have the 3rd most available targets.  So that's 224 they have to replace.  Granted some of those are going to the TE but now they don't have Smith anymore.  Perhaps they pass a bit more now that they have 2 solid WRs (and to take the load off of Henry who's coming of a 378 carry season)

 

We may not see him get 150+ targets anymore, but I can see him getting 120 targets at least  which would make him a solid mid 3rd/4th round pick. 

Edited by nk2333
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14 hours ago, SyNdicateZ said:

 

If he went to Seattle I would be more excited..

 

with D.K. and Lockett to tussle for targets with? dunno how that's a more exciting fit, St. Russel >>> Tennyhillz notwithstanding.

can't get on board with that. 

 

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1 hour ago, nk2333 said:

Don't' know if this has been said but the Titans have the 3rd most available targets.  So that's 224 they have to replace.  Granted some of those are going to the TE but now they don't have Smith anymore.  Perhaps they pass a bit more now that they have 2 solid WRs (and to take the load off of Henry who's coming of a 378 carry season)

 

We may not see him get 150+ targets anymore, but I can see him getting 120 targets at least  which would make him a solid mid 3rd/4th round pick. 

Yeah this is basically how I am looking at the situation. Plus they also are moving out of the Arthur Smith offense, though I can't say with certainty they are moving away from it. They prob will have to pass more anyways, the defense is better but I doubt it takes a huge leap forward?

Tanne was also the top passer last year in 'intermediate throws' which is defined as passes between 9-20 yards downfield...nobody had more throws in this range and he was quite good with them--it also happens to be the area that Julio is incredibly good in, only Hopkins has had more WR points in this range over the last 3 seasons.

With all the targets available and Julio often seeing the #2 or worse CB in coverage, there is plenty to like here yet.

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I can't imagine they added Julio to not throw to him and to keep passing less than all but a handful of teams, but I get that trust has to be earned here.   I think they absolutely have to find balance here.  Henry can absolutely still dominate enough to win you 10-11 games, but there are at least a few defenses who've been able to stop him or at least slow him enough to handcuff them a bit.

If Tennessee is going to advance further than playoff upstart, they need balance.  Especially given their still questionable defense. 

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

I can't imagine they added Julio to not throw to him and to keep passing less than all but a handful of teams, but I get that trust has to be earned here.   I think they absolutely have to find balance here.  Henry can absolutely still dominate enough to win you 10-11 games, but there are at least a few defenses who've been able to stop him or at least slow him enough to handcuff them a bit.

If Tennessee is going to advance further than playoff upstart, they need balance.  Especially given their still questionable defense. 

This. As much as this is a first run team, they need to get their passing working if they want to beat elite teams in the playoffs.

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On 6/6/2021 at 7:08 PM, Maglio said:

I’m in the camp of believing the Titans passing offense takes a step up this year and slowly transitions toward a 60/40 pass to run ratio.  

60% pass puts them in the top 10 in terms of passing percentage.

Thats not happening. Like, almost 0% chance not happening. They aren’t going from bottom 5 to top 10 just because of Julio. Tannehill is good but he’s still just an elite game manager. They also have Henry who is still their best weapon on offense.

MAYBE they go 54%-55% pass but 60%? No way. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

60% pass puts them in the top 10 in terms of passing percentage.

Thats not happening. Like, almost 0% chance not happening. They aren’t going from bottom 5 to top 10 just because of Julio. Tannehill is good but he’s still just an elite game manager. They also have Henry who is still their best weapon on offense.

MAYBE they go 54%-55% pass but 60%? No way. 

Henry has had an enormously larger workload over the last few seasons and playoffs included. He won’t keep going like this for another 2-3 years.  When I said 60 percent I didn’t mean right away nor do I mean exactly that number. 
 

I would not be the least bit surprised if by mid to late this season the Titans became a more pass first team. Whether it’s 54, 57, or 60 percent I don’t know but I could definitely see it. Add to this they very likely know what they need to become to compete with the Bills and Chiefs. 

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29 minutes ago, Maglio said:

Henry has had an enormously larger workload over the last few seasons and playoffs included. He won’t keep going like this for another 2-3 years.  When I said 60 percent I didn’t mean right away nor do I mean exactly that number. 
 

I would not be the least bit surprised if by mid to late this season the Titans became a more pass first team. Whether it’s 54, 57, or 60 percent I don’t know but I could definitely see it. Add to this they very likely know what they need to become to compete with the Bills and Chiefs. 

Well 54% and 60% is a big difference. 54% is not pass first and more balanced. Only 6 teams were under 54% last year.

Anyways, with Tannehill at QB they aren’t going to become pass first by modern NFL standards. Maybe we are arguing semantics because they’re definitely going to throw more with Julio but as I mentioned before we know who Tannehill is at this point in his career: an elite game manager. He’s not a 4,000 yards Qb (16 games).

They may have to compete with the AFC elites but they don’t have Allen or Mahomes. If they try to air it out against those teams they’ll get obliterated. Their best bet is slowing down the game and hitting big plays when they are presented (which Julio helps a ton). 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

He’s not a 4,000 yards Qb (16 games).

I'm nitpicking here, but he was only 182 yards away from that point. If they would have thrown it 50% instead of 48% of the time, he probably is a 4000 yd QB.

Anyway, I agree with you I don't see them suddenly make drastic changes to what worked fairly well for them so far. But they did add Julio to add more punch to the passing game, and I would expect them to throw it a bit more. How that's going to work out for Julio (going from a top 10 pass offense to a bottom 5), we can only guess.

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On 6/6/2021 at 10:22 PM, SyNdicateZ said:

DND.

I think you can draft him, but not as a WR 1. He may provide WR2/3 value as a RZ and 3rd down target. I think they got him to pull some pressure off the LOS to open things up more DH and for him to grab some 3rd down jump balls and get some RZ looks. Slight arrow up for DH and perhaps a hit to TEs. It's not like JJ is going over the top of Ds and streaking past DBs. 

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15 hours ago, Blazer said:

I think you can draft him, but not as a WR 1. He may provide WR2/3 value as a RZ and 3rd down target. I think they got him to pull some pressure off the LOS to open things up more DH and for him to grab some 3rd down jump balls and get some RZ looks. Slight arrow up for DH and perhaps a hit to TEs. It's not like JJ is going over the top of Ds and streaking past DBs. 

They got Julio to open up their big play ability. People think Julio is going to make this team pass more and maybe a bit but it's not nearly as drastic as people think. The Titans game plan is not changing. Run the ball, setup the pass, and go for the home run. Tannehill is an extremely underrated deep ball passer and Julio is almost the perfect fit to make the defense respect the pass more (opening up the run even more) and also the perfect fit to take the top off.

People seem to think this addition will make them change their game plan when in reality it is just to maximize their current game plan. 

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

They got Julio to open up their big play ability. People think Julio is going to make this team pass more and maybe a bit but it's not nearly as drastic as people think. The Titans game plan is not changing. Run the ball, setup the pass, and go for the home run. Tannehill is an extremely underrated deep ball passer and Julio is almost the perfect fit to make the defense respect the pass more (opening up the run even more) and also the perfect fit to take the top off.

People seem to think this addition will make them change their game plan when in reality it is just to maximize their current game plan. 

Solid.   Agree that it's just a subtle change that will help the team but probably not make Jones a sure fire fantasy option.   IMO, it clearly helps Brown, Fournette, and Tannehill.  But Jones might be nothing more than equivalent to Michael Gallop.

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