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2021 Buy/Sell Low/High Thread


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This thread is for touting players that you feel deserve attention as targets for buying / selling in fantasy leagues.  That does not include discussion of specific trade offers you're making, considering making, or have completed.  If you want to talk about specific deals you've made, you can do so here .

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It's time for the annual buy high, sell low and buy low, sell high thread!

A couple things - buying low/selling high doesn't mean offering garbage or some hot start, possible flash in the pan guy. You can't offer Akil Baddoo for Marcell Ozuna and think 'Yeah, this is totally fair' because Akil is batting over 300 with 4 homers while Ozuna is under the Mendoza line with 1. That's a good way to ensure nobody will ever want to make a trade with you. What you can do it move up a round or so. You can maybe move your fourth or fifth round piece plus something for someone's third round pick. Might it backfire? Sure. The reason you're reluctant to trade for player x is the very reason they're available. If you wait until there are clearly positive signs, you will have missed your buy low window. 

Buying high/selling low is a thing. A lot of this is semantics so don't get too caught up on the wording between the two ideas. But let's look at Akil Baddoo again and pretend you think he's going to hit for 280+ with 30+ bombs this year. Might you have to pay a lot to get him? Maybe. Is it still be a bargain if your expectations come to fruition? Absolutely. On the flip side, let's again look at Ozuna. Let's pretend you think something has actually changed between the preseason and now, and you now think he's going to have a terrible season. Don't bother waiting until he has a hot streak if that's how you feel - pull the plug and get out now, even if it's for significantly less than you paid.

 

With that said, here's one guy I'm looking to buy and another I'm looking to sell:

Patrick Corbin. I really wouldn't pay much, but I'd definitely be looking to snag him if he's rage dropped. His velocity was up this spring compared to last spring, but it's about what he was at last summer. It's very possible this is just what he tops out at now. It's also possible it'll climb slightly as the season moves along. There really isn't anything positive to say about his season thus far. But he played against the Dodgers in his first start and it's possible he was feeling some effects from the covid vaccine yesterday. There's no way I'd start him next game, but I'd be happy to pick him up and leave him on the bench for a start or two.

 

Betts, Bellinger. I'm eyeballing the exits. I have zero doubts about the talent of these guys, so of course like any buy/sell, it depends what people will give you. But if I can get one of their draft day peers for a small addition, I'm going to have to really think about pulling the trigger. I fear the Dodgers are going to try resting their guys more than most teams this year, basically taking their strategy with pitchers over to their hitters. A brilliant real life strategy that's incredibly frustrating for fantasy owners.

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Last chance to buy low on Luis Castillo before you can pick him up off waivers.

It's time for the annual buy high, sell low and buy low, sell high thread! A couple things - buying low/selling high doesn't mean offering garbage or some hot start, possible flash in the pan guy

thars an overpay for lindor.

24 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Conforto has done nothing this year, maybe he can be snagged from an impatient owner


geeze, I was inches away from dropping him before this post and I was an ardent supporter just a couple years ago as you may or may not remember 

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


geeze, I was inches away from dropping him before this post and I was an ardent supporter just a couple years ago as you may or may not remember 

why on earth would you drop him?

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Buy

Morton: good last outing otherwise ruined by a Jazz HR. Velo is back to where it was pre-injury.

Haniger: as a Mariners fan I made sure to draft him in every league. People forgot he could hit and his injuries have been incredibly fluky (hit in the balls, hit in the face)

Blackmon: statcast profile is the most red it's been in a couple seasons

Lowrie: not so much a buy because he might be available, but he now has 2B elig everywhere and hitting 3rd in a solid A's lineup

McNeil: making hard contact right at defenders

Ozuna: dude looks awful right now but there might not be a bigger buy-low outfielder than him if someone is willing to sell

Mancini: good and starting slow

Yaz: BABIP thinks he's overperformed the last couple seasons, but he can still be had cheap if you're a believer. He was dropped in one of my leagues

 

Sell

Probably too early to give up on anyone at this point, but I'd like to punt Biggio into the sun

 

Edited by street sharks
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I personally wouldn't touch Corbin with a ten foot pole. His awfulness is a continuation from last year and I honestly think he's just cooked. That said, if you do want to take a chance on him why buy at all? There's a very good chance he's going to be dropped after his next bad start and you can probably get him for free. 

Here are a few of my own buy lows / sell highs. Discuss...

Buy Lows

Grandal - He's gotten off to a horrendous start, but I still wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as the third best catcher. 

Blackmon - I'm not saying he'll recapture his previous years' third round value, but he was being drafted much later this year. Even though the Rockies are a dumpster fire I'm fairly confident that Blackmon will produce at least 8th or 9th round draft value, which is all you really need from him. 

Karinchak - Here me out. If you need Ks you should target him. Karinchak is going to be the pitcher that we all though Devin Williams would be this season. And even if he doesn't get saves he's going to help your ratios as well. He'd be a guy I'll pair with SPs like Hendricks, Ryu, etc. to balance out their lack of Ks. 

K. Hayes - This one's a bit riskier, but I really think Hayes will be back before the end of the month. His owner's might be frustrated right now because the lack of a clear timetable for his return and if they have other injuries they might be willing to sell for a healthy body. For example, I'd trade someone like Nate Lowe for Hayes in a heartbeat. 

Sell Highs

The Yerminator - It's a great feel good story, but if I can get anything of value for him I'm selling. The fact that he can't play a position is going to be a problem as soon as he stops hitting .500 and LaRussa has already shown a pattern of rotating in / sitting players. I don't think it bodes well for his long term success. 

Ohtani - He's a really hard to player to assign a true value (especially in leagues where you can play him at both SP and DH), but I think you need to at least entertain offers for him. Realistically I think offensively you're probably looking at something like Grishamish numbers. Pitching wise I think he's going to be much more inconsistent. Absolutely dominant at times, but prone to bad starts whenever he struggles with control. Sort of Corbin Burnes type before he turned the corner. 

India - I'm not saying he has much value, but he did just gain second base eligibility which should make him a bit more attractive in leagues that start MIs. The RBIs have been nice, but like the batting average seem unsustainable given his lack of power (so far). He's also not stealing bases. 

 

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1 minute ago, street sharks said:

Buy

Morton: good last outing otherwise ruined by a Jazz HR. Velo is back to where it was pre-injury.

Haniger: As a Mariners fan I made sure to draft him in every league. People forgot he could hit and his injuries have been incredibly fluky (hit in the balls, hit in the face)

Blackmon: statcast profile is the most red it's been in a couple seasons

Lowrie: not so much a buy because he might be available, but he now has 2B elig everywhere and hitting 3rd in a solid A's lineup

Ozuna: dude looks awful right now but there might not be a bigger buy-low outfielder than him if someone is willing to sell

Mancini: Good and starting slow

Yaz: BABIP thinks he's overperformed the last couple seasons, but he can still be had cheap if you're a believer. He was dropped in one of my leagues

 

Sell

Probably too early to give up on anyone at this point, but I'd like to punt Biggio into the sun

 

Good list, but I have two problems with it. Haniger is the first one. He isn't really a buy because he'd be a buy "high" which isn't really what you want to do. I think you're spot on with your assessment of him though and I'm very happy to have him as my fifth OF in one of leagues. The second one is Biggio. I was down on him going into the season, but if you did draft him now isn't the time to sell. You're better off waiting for him him to string a few good games / weeks together. Unless you think he'll be so bad that he'll be unownable (I personally don't).

 

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


knee jerk reaction.

 

I have to remember to stay patient  but I’m always infatuated with the hot waiver wire adds while my guys struggle.

This tells me that I should probably be making trade offers for Michael Conforto right now. 

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4 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Good list, but I have two problems with it. Haniger is the first one. He isn't really a buy because he'd be a buy "high" which isn't really what you want to do. I think you're spot on with your assessment of him though and I'm very happy to have him as my fifth OF in one of leagues. The second one is Biggio. I was down on him going into the season, but if you did draft him now isn't the time to sell. You're better off waiting for him him to string a few good games / weeks together. Unless you think he'll be so bad that he'll be unownable (I personally don't).

I included Haniger mostly because he probably could still be had cheap since he went undrafted in most leagues. People might not think he's this good or might be skeptical about him continuing to hit well of because of his "injury history"

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1 minute ago, street sharks said:

I included Haniger mostly because he probably could still be had cheap since he went undrafted in most leagues. People might not think he's this good or might be skeptical about him continuing to hit well of because of his "injury history"

I think his buy cheap window closed after he hit 2 HRs yesterday. If you can though, definitely do it. 

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7 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Good list, but I have two problems with it. Haniger is the first one. He isn't really a buy because he'd be a buy "high" which isn't really what you want to do.

 

It is if you think his future value is going to be greater than his current value.

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Tommy Pham is my favorite buy low right now. He can be had for next to nothing. He’s been really unlucky thus far. He’s slugging just .143 in the early going but has an expected slugging of .502. He’s 98th percentile in chase rate and has a k:bb rate of 11.3 : 15.1. His EV, maxEV, and launch angle all look similar to previous years.

I’d also check in on the owners of Goldy and McNeil to see how impatient they are.

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

It is if you think his future value is going to be greater than his current value.

I mean he's probably on pace right now for 40+ HRs and a +.300 BA. I think the chance of that happening are about 10%. 

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1 minute ago, meh2 said:

Tommy Pham is my favorite buy low right now. He can be had for next to nothing. He’s been really unlucky thus far. He’s slugging just .143 in the early going but has an expected slugging of .502. He’s 98th percentile in chase rate and has a k:bb rate of 11.3 : 15.1. His EV, maxEV, and launch angle all look similar to previous years.

I’d also check in on the owners of Goldy and McNeil to see how impatient they are.

Pham's an interesting one (to me). I want to target him (especially in one league in particular where I need SBs), but his injuries worry me. I mean he was frickin' stabbed just a few months ago! What do you think his perceived value is right now. Give me some names of other OFs who you think a frustrated owner might value similarly to Pham. 

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2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I mean he's probably on pace right now for 40+ HRs and a +.300 BA. I think the chance of that happening are about 10%. 

I agree he's probably not going to maintain that pace, but I'll note a player's value isn't always equal to what they're on pace for. Another example is Laureano. He's on pace for something like 140 stolen bases. But nobody is valuing him like he's actually going to steal that many.

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

that's why i brought him up!

You know an interesting one would be Haniger for Conforto. Logic would say if you could turn Haniger into Conforto you should do it, but I think Haniger owner's might be hesitant...

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20 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I personally wouldn't touch Corbin with a ten foot pole. His awfulness is a continuation from last year and I honestly think he's just cooked. That said, if you do want to take a chance on him why buy at all? There's a very good chance he's going to be dropped after his next bad start and you can probably get him for free. 

Here are a few of my own buy lows / sell highs. Discuss...

Buy Lows

Grandal - He's gotten off to a horrendous start, but I still wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as the third best catcher. 

Blackmon - I'm not saying he'll recapture his previous years' third round value, but he was being drafted much later this year. Even though the Rockies are a dumpster fire I'm fairly confident that Blackmon will produce at least 8th or 9th round draft value, which is all you really need from him. 

Karinchak - Here me out. If you need Ks you should target him. Karinchak is going to be the pitcher that we all though Devin Williams would be this season. And even if he doesn't get saves he's going to help your ratios as well. He'd be a guy I'll pair with SPs like Hendricks, Ryu, etc. to balance out their lack of Ks. 

K. Hayes - This one's a bit riskier, but I really think Hayes will be back before the end of the month. His owner's might be frustrated right now because the lack of a clear timetable for his return and if they have other injuries they might be willing to sell for a healthy body. For example, I'd trade someone like Nate Lowe for Hayes in a heartbeat. 

Sell Highs

The Yerminator - It's a great feel good story, but if I can get anything of value for him I'm selling. The fact that he can't play a position is going to be a problem as soon as he stops hitting .500 and LaRussa has already shown a pattern of rotating in / sitting players. I don't think it bodes well for his long term success. 

Ohtani - He's a really hard to player to assign a true value (especially in leagues where you can play him at both SP and DH), but I think you need to at least entertain offers for him. Realistically I think offensively you're probably looking at something like Grishamish numbers. Pitching wise I think he's going to be much more inconsistent. Absolutely dominant at times, but prone to bad starts whenever he struggles with control. Sort of Corbin Burnes type before he turned the corner. 

India - I'm not saying he has much value, but he did just gain second base eligibility which should make him a bit more attractive in leagues that start MIs. The RBIs have been nice, but like the batting average seem unsustainable given his lack of power (so far). He's also not stealing bases. 

 

Unless someone wants to do a huge over pay, Yermin is a solid hold. The value he’s producing out of my catcher spot (ESPN) is insane. There’s tons of scenarios where he slows down or gets into a platoon, but the scenario where he’s far and away the #1 catcher this year has way to much value. 

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Just now, AnonymousRob said:

I agree he's probably not going to maintain that pace, but I'll note a player's value isn't always equal to what they're on pace for. Another example is Laureano. He's on pace for something like 140 stolen bases. But nobody is valuing him like he's actually going to steal that many.

I don't know...I kicked the tires on him a few days ago and the other owner basically wanted Castellanos for him (and wouldn't budge). I'd say that's a pretty ridiculous perceived value. 

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The hard part about buying low right now is owners aren't giving up on these guys yet in most competitive leagues. At least in the leagues I'm in, there is a great deal of patience in April as guys shake off the rust and get into the flow of the season. Now once May rolls around, then you start to see owners get antsy and become more open to dealing struggling players. 

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1 minute ago, collucho said:

With a lacking pool of solid players at the 2B position, I am targeting Lourdes Gurriel and Ozzie Albies.

In what world is Lourdes 2B eligible? It must be a Yahoo thing. 

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