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2021 Buy/Sell Low/High Thread


Message added by tonycpsu,

This thread is for touting players that you feel deserve attention as targets for buying / selling in fantasy leagues.  That does not include discussion of specific trade offers you're making, considering making, or have completed.  If you want to talk about specific deals you've made, you can do so here .  Please take any detailed discussions of the players involved to their player threads.

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Last chance to buy low on Luis Castillo before you can pick him up off waivers.

Laughed at.

It's time for the annual buy high, sell low and buy low, sell high thread! A couple things - buying low/selling high doesn't mean offering garbage or some hot start, possible flash in the pan guy

Just now, Flyman75 said:

The hard part about buying low right now is owners aren't giving up on these guys yet in most competitive leagues. At least in the leagues I'm in, there is a great deal of patience in April as guys shake off the rust and get into the flow of the season. Now once May rolls around, then you start to see owners get antsy and become more open to dealing struggling players. 

Agree 100%. It's so early in the season most owners are still using ADP (unless it benefits them not to) to gauge the value of players. 

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Thoughts on Moncada?

Talked myself into the COVID theory to explain last year but he's continuing to struggle this year too with linger SO issues. Still it's hard to buy a guy that talented and young falling off the cliff like this. Owners could be getting antsy. 

Edited by Baur10
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I’d say Hiura is a realistic buy low that can actually be gotten.  Although I don’t think he will reach his draft value, he will still likely give you very good power and above average steals.   He also has the upside for a whole new level.  More of a dart throw than anything, but definately a guy that can be had for much less than he was going for 3 weeks ago and one that actually could be pried away.

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Just now, Cesare13 said:

I’d say Hiura is a realistic buy low that can actually be gotten.  Although I don’t think he will reach his draft value, he will still likely give you very good power and above average steals.   He also has the upside for a whole new level.  More of a dart throw than anything, but definately a guy that can be had for much less than he was going for 3 weeks ago and one that actually could be pried away.

I though the same until I offered Grandal for Hiura (to a team that needed a catcher) and had it declined. I feel like people are willing to go down with the ship when it comes to Hiura. 

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The problem I find myself having trying to buy low this early is expressing interest in a guy batting sub .200. Couple more weeks of the same and there's a good chance that guy is hitting the wire. That is, unless the owner knows that people want the guy and are waiting to scoop him. 

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6 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Thoughts on Moncada?

Talked myself into the COVID theory to explain last year but he's continuing to struggle this year too with linger SO issues. Still it's hard to buy a guy that talented and young falling off the cliff like this. 

As a non owner, I’d love to have him.  Could be a post hype season baked into a post hype player.

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1 minute ago, collucho said:

The problem I find myself having trying to buy low this early is expressing interest in a guy batting sub .200. Couple more weeks of the same and there's a good chance that guy is hitting the wire. That is, unless the owner knows that people want the guy and are waiting to scoop him. 

Depends on who it is. Ozuna isn't hitting the wire. Neither is Pham or Conforto...guys like that. Doubtful Hiura would even hit the wire. But that would probably depend more on roster sizes and league sizes. 

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to 2021 Buy/Sell Low/High Thread
11 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Thoughts on Moncada?

Talked myself into the COVID theory to explain last year but he's continuing to struggle this year too with linger SO issues. Still it's hard to buy a guy that talented and young falling off the cliff like this. Owners could be getting antsy. 

That depends. I think his 2019 numbers are his absolute ceiling. And if he doesn't steal 10+ bases he's probably no more valuable than a Gio Urshela type. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Depends on who it is. Ozuna isn't hitting the wire. Neither is Pham or Conforto...guys like that. Doubtful Hiura would even hit the wire. But that would probably depend more on roster sizes and league sizes. 

...Pham's ownership is down to about the 80% mark in ESPN leagues. And if Hiura is still batting under 200 by the end of the month I could see him being dropped too. 

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Depends on who it is. Ozuna isn't hitting the wire. Neither is Pham or Conforto...guys like that. Doubtful Hiura would even hit the wire. But that would probably depend more on roster sizes and league sizes. 

Pham ownership is dropping as we speak. Two more weeks I bet the kid in my league would be thinking about it if he didn't name his team after him lmao.

But yes, its all relative. 

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8 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I though the same until I offered Grandal for Hiura (to a team that needed a catcher) and had it declined. I feel like people are willing to go down with the ship when it comes to Hiura. 

Personally speaking as a hiura owner that had a scrap heap catcher.  My view of him really increased after his homer and steal.  That would have been a bad time to make me an offer, however, if I got one after his next, and soon to come 0-16 run....

anyone that doesn’t have a catcher likely think they’re all the same and can eventually piece together some stats from that position.  Maybe try something else?

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Just now, Cesare13 said:

Personally speaking as a hiura owner that had a scrap heap catcher.  My view of him really increased after his homer and steal.  That would have been a bad time to make me an offer, however, if I got one after his next, and soon to come 0-16 run....

anyone that doesn’t have a catcher likely think they’re all the same and can eventually piece together some stats from that position.  Maybe try something else?

Oh I just gave up. I was just looking for creative/out of the box ways to improve my 1B situation since it's so bad in this particular league. As soon as he declined I crossed him off the list. 

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5 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

...Pham's ownership is down to about the 80% mark in ESPN leagues. And if Hiura is still batting under 200 by the end of the month I could see him being dropped too. 

I guess what I would wonder about is the size of those leagues. My two keeper leagues roster 360 and 406 players, respectively, and I can't see him being dropped in either. I joined a 12tm  redraft this year with 3 OF and 2 UT, and I drafted Pham. He'd have to hit this poorly a lot longer for me to drop. 

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29 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I don't know...I kicked the tires on him a few days ago and the other owner basically wanted Castellanos for him (and wouldn't budge). I'd say that's a pretty ridiculous perceived value. 

This is where this thread concept kind of falls apart. The general idea of buy/sell depends entirely how the player is perceived. I've had player x valued way too cheap in one league, and way too high in another. All depends on the owners. I agree Castellanos is more valuable than Haniger. But heck, maybe the season will end with us looking back and realizing how wrong we were!

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5 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

This is where this thread concept kind of falls apart. The general idea of buy/sell depends entirely how the player is perceived. I've had player x valued way too cheap in one league, and way too high in another. All depends on the owners. I agree Castellanos is more valuable than Haniger. But heck, maybe the season will end with us looking back and realizing how wrong we were!

And as was mentioned earlier (I believe) perception changes when an owner with a "buy low" type of player fields a request or two about that player. He may go from looking on the wire for a replacement to thinking, "Hmm...maybe I should hang on a little bit longer since other owners are asking about him." And if he gets to that point, then his asking price probably just went up. 

Edited by Flyman75
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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

And as was mentioned earlier (I believe) perception changes when an owner with a "buy low" type of player fields a request or two about that player. He may go from looking on the wire for a replacement to thinking, "Hmm...maybe I should hang on a little bit longer since other owners are asking about him." 

This is exactly what I was trying to say on the first page.

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28 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Thoughts on Moncada?

Talked myself into the COVID theory to explain last year but he's continuing to struggle this year too with linger SO issues. Still it's hard to buy a guy that talented and young falling off the cliff like this. Owners could be getting antsy. 

I wouldn't try to acquire him. Dude looks completely lost at the plate. Every time he goes up to bat, he is just guessing. I honestly don't think he's a good hitter.

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[ Posts removed.  While I empathize with and appreciate the attempts to thread the needle on making things not-league-specific, once you are suggesting specific one-for-one trades, you're soliciting feedback on those players in a trade, however hypothetical that deal may be.  This thread goes much better if it's used as a place to tout specific players who might be under/overvalued and stays away from Player A for Player B suggestions, which tend to become too BC for this forum. ]

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22 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Sell high on Burnes if people will give you SP5 value on him.  His value might never be as high as this, and remember he has an injury history and is on an innings limit


I agree with those limitations but I think people valuing him as top 5 at this point in the season are more interested in his pure skills (stuff and command) which are certainly top 5.

 

If you own Burnes I would basically keep him. No one will give you DeGron or Cole level value for him but I think selling him anything less than that right now is selling short

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Just now, 5catstud said:


I agree with those limitations but I think people valuing him as top 5 at this point in the season are more interested in his pure skills (stuff and command) which are certainly top 5.

 

If you own Burnes I would basically keep him. No one will give you DeGron or Cole level value for him but I think selling him anything less than that right now is selling short

I disagree.  The fact that people have him on Cole/Degrom level-ish right now is why I would sell.  He has amazing pure stuff but nobody can keep this rate up.  And that’s not even taking into account the injury risk.  I genuinely think you could get a top 10–15 bat for him because people value him so highly, which is what I’d be doing if I was an owner 

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4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I disagree.  The fact that people have him on Cole/Degrom level-ish right now is why I would sell.  He has amazing pure stuff but nobody can keep this rate up.  And that’s not even taking into account the injury risk.  I genuinely think you could get a top 10–15 bat for him because people value him so highly, which is what I’d be doing if I was an owner 

 

For sure, he won't have a 0 ERA and no BBs the whole season but what you're seeing is a pitcher with sky high upside actually realizing his potential. There are maybe 1-2 other pitchers with his repertoire of velocity and number of pitches. And he's actually starting to look like he's gaining command of all of those pitches.

Comparisons are hard but he seems like prime Justin Verlander to me right now. He's just going to flat out dominate. So he is worth a top 10-15 bat IMO - but guess what no one will actually give you that for him (I wouldn't either) until he does it for a full season, in which case it'll be too late.

So sell high if you can, but this is one of those cases where I don't think it's realistic

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2 minutes ago, 5catstud said:

 

For sure, he won't have a 0 ERA and no BBs the whole season but what you're seeing is a pitcher with sky high upside actually realizing his potential. There are maybe 1-2 other pitchers with his repertoire of velocity and number of pitches. And he's actually starting to look like he's gaining command of all of those pitches.

Comparisons are hard but he seems like prime Justin Verlander to me right now. He's just going to flat out dominate. So he is worth a top 10-15 bat IMO - but guess what no one will actually give you that for him (I wouldn't either) until he does it for a full season, in which case it'll be too late.

So sell high if you can, but this is one of those cases where I don't think it's realistic

Yeah that’s fair 👍 .  I mean I guess I should have qualified with “if you can” because I think some people’s opinion of him are so high that they’d pull the trigger.  If my leagues are any indication at least lol they think he’s the next coming of Christ 😂 

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