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2021 Buy/Sell Low/High Thread


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This thread is for touting players that you feel deserve attention as targets for buying / selling in fantasy leagues.  That does not include discussion of specific trade offers you're making, considering making, or have completed.  If you want to talk about specific deals you've made, you can do so here .  Please take any detailed discussions of the players involved to their player threads.

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9 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

In my league the owner with Lindor is considering a Kershaw/Mondesi offer..  

That just seems like a fair offer to me.

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Last chance to buy low on Luis Castillo before you can pick him up off waivers.

Laughed at.

It's time for the annual buy high, sell low and buy low, sell high thread! A couple things - buying low/selling high doesn't mean offering garbage or some hot start, possible flash in the pan guy

Is Luis Castillo a buy low? Last few outings were vs STL & Cubs, & struggled. Are teams who have him, done with him or holding & think he returns to SP1 form?

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1 hour ago, DarinB300 said:

Is Luis Castillo a buy low? Last few outings were vs STL & Cubs, & struggled. Are teams who have him, done with him or holding & think he returns to SP1 form?

I'd trade him for the right price. I'm not selling at a steep discount, but I'd be willing to part with him with a valuation that he is a high-end SP2 right now.

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I'd trade him for the right price. I'm not selling at a steep discount, but I'd be willing to part with him with a valuation that he is a high-end SP2 right now.

Any reason why you don't think he can fully regain form? Right now it looks like he is struggling to locate his change up properly. It's dropping 2 more inches then normal and its low/middle part of plate. He usually is painting away with it.  I see no reasons to assume he can't rediscover his command. 

Looks like command issues are the reason for his 4 Seamer and Change playing down right now.

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Any reason why you don't think he can fully regain form? Right now it looks like he is struggling to locate his change up properly. It's dropping 2 more inches then normal and its low/middle part of plate. He usually is painting away with it.  I see no reasons to assume he can't rediscover his command. 

Looks like command issues are the reason for his 4 Seamer and Change playing down right now.

Pretty sure it's not a matter of someone not regaining form.  It's very much a matter of a team not willing to give up SP1 type return on a pitcher who has struggled significantly to start the season.

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Just bought low on Charlie Blackmon. I’ve got a feeling he’s going to start heating up with the temperature, and shouldn’t be too long before he’s hitting .280-300 BA.

I’d venture to guess you have about 3-5 games or so before his buy-low window shuts.

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5 hours ago, DarinB300 said:

Is Luis Castillo a buy low? Last few outings were vs STL & Cubs, & struggled. Are teams who have him, done with him or holding & think he returns to SP1 form?

I think you hold on Castillo. That's what I'm doing. I don't think you can get fair value right now. He has a history of slow starts, and the infield defense behind him has been a disaster. Now they actually have a legitimate shortstop at the position with Suarez back at third, so that will help. 

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23 minutes ago, Words said:

I think you hold on Castillo. That's what I'm doing. I don't think you can get fair value right now. He has a history of slow starts, and the infield defense behind him has been a disaster. Now they actually have a legitimate shortstop at the position with Suarez back at third, so that will help. 

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Any reason why you don't think he can fully regain form? Right now it looks like he is struggling to locate his change up properly. It's dropping 2 more inches then normal and its low/middle part of plate. He usually is painting away with it.  I see no reasons to assume he can't rediscover his command. 

Looks like command issues are the reason for his 4 Seamer and Change playing down right now.

IlliniGuy76 basically nailed it for me. Like, personally I'm good with dealing him in my redraft because I have other options, and getting a "good" return as a high-end SP2 might be good for my squad. It's going to be different for everyone.

In my dynasty league, I ain't moving him.

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7 hours ago, DarinB300 said:

Is Luis Castillo a buy low? Last few outings were vs STL & Cubs, & struggled. Are teams who have him, done with him or holding & think he returns to SP1 form?

It can't be helping him that GABP has an absolutely ridiculous run factor rating right now.  

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

As a general rule of thumb I just completely avoid pitchers in historically "run positive" ballparks, with Coors, GABP, and whatever the Rangers are calling their stadium now the prime three candidates.  

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10 minutes ago, Overlord said:

It can't be helping him that GABP has an absolutely ridiculous run factor rating right now.  

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

As a general rule of thumb I just completely avoid pitchers in historically "run positive" ballparks, with Coors, GABP, and whatever the Rangers are calling their stadium now the prime three candidates.  

The Rangers' new park opened last season and has been very pitcher-friendly so far - 29th in park factor both last year and this year. I agree with your general logic and have historically avoided Rangers pitchers, but now they might actually be good targets.

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6 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

The Rangers' new park opened last season and has been very pitcher-friendly so far - 29th in park factor both last year and this year. I agree with your general logic and have historically avoided Rangers pitchers, but now they might actually be good targets.

Yeah, I read that it’s a pitcher’s park now. 

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12 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Sell high on Lindor after his HR tonight 

Yeah, one good game is enough to get full value for him.... 🙄

Not that there's a reason to sell unless you got full value for him, but a sell high window doesn't exist on a superstar having a dreadful season so far and then has one good game.

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16 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

im shopping baez. if i can package him and another piece for a legit top 15 player (baez value right now) i think that would be wise

Good luck. I've been trying to move him intermittently for weeks and no dice getting worthwhile value IMO. I agree that he's a sell-high candidate but also think most owners are aware of his batting issues by now too to the point that his power/speed is almost overlooked somehow.

Side(ish) note:  his statcast data is hilarious to me. He's either elite or bottom of the barrel in pretty much all categories.  Such a weird player.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/javier-baez-595879?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

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50 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

im shopping baez. if i can package him and another piece for a legit top 15 player (baez value right now) i think that would be wise

 

24 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Good luck. I've been trying to move him intermittently for weeks and no dice getting worthwhile value IMO. I agree that he's a sell-high candidate but also think most owners are aware of his batting issues by now too to the point that his power/speed is almost overlooked somehow.

Side(ish) note:  his statcast data is hilarious to me. He's either elite or bottom of the barrel in pretty much all categories.  Such a weird player.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/javier-baez-595879?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but are you guys targeting teams that need steals in your leagues? 

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3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but are you guys targeting teams that need steals in your leagues? 

not really im targeting the teams at the bottom of the standings. more desperate maybe less informed. no luck on baez and a sp3/4 for jo ram.

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Charlie Morton might be a buy low.  He has a 3.77 SIERA and 3.60 XFIP vs 4.98 ERA.  His SIERA and XFIP are close to what he had in Houston and Tampa when he pitched well.  He's not getting hit hard (23.4% of his Houston/Tampa/Atlanta years)and hes getting groundballs at a 50% rate.  19.2% HR/FB and 58/1% strand rate should normalize to his career norms. 

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21 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Yeah, one good game is enough to get full value for him.... 🙄

Not that there's a reason to sell unless you got full value for him, but a sell high window doesn't exist on a superstar having a dreadful season so far and then has one good game.

As Lindor's bat starts to heat up, I'd be at least a little tempted to sell low on him. I think his bat will probably be okay-ish ROS, and I wouldn't give him away or anything. My concern is that he doesn't seem to be running even when he gets on base. SB can come in bunches but he's not really a speed demon. I might gamble that somebody still sees him as a legitimate dual threat and see if I can get like 4th/5th round value as such...

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