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2021 Buy/Sell Low/High Thread


Message added by tonycpsu,

This thread is for touting players that you feel deserve attention as targets for buying / selling in fantasy leagues.  That does not include discussion of specific trade offers you're making, considering making, or have completed.  If you want to talk about specific deals you've made, you can do so here .  Please take any detailed discussions of the players involved to their player threads.

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Last chance to buy low on Luis Castillo before you can pick him up off waivers.

Laughed at.

It's time for the annual buy high, sell low and buy low, sell high thread! A couple things - buying low/selling high doesn't mean offering garbage or some hot start, possible flash in the pan guy

Nate Lowe a buy low ?

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31 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Nate Lowe a buy low ?

He shouldn’t cost much to get if you want to take a flyer. Don’t see anything to like in his underlying numbers though. Pass for me. 

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37 minutes ago, bluntbros said:

I think it might be time to move Kris Bryant. Perfect sell high candidate IMO. I’m targeting the Walker Buehler owner as I’m typing this.

I dunno ... he's playing for a new contract.  


I can tell you he's on my "avoid" list for next season, though.  Anthony Rendon is the latest cautionary tale as to what happens when players contract the dreaded malady of gotpaiditis.

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

I dunno ... he's playing for a new contract.  


I can tell you he's on my "avoid" list for next season, though.  Anthony Rendon is the latest cautionary tale as to what happens when players contract the dreaded malady of gotpaiditis.

Add Marcell Ozuna to that list.  Not even going to touch his personal problems, but even before that he would have qualified as a giant bust after getting a new contract.

Rendon is a shocking one.  His only real issue in the past was staying healthy, but to see him be truly awful is a huge surprise.

As for a buy low recommendation, I'll say Alex Bregman.  Maybe it's just wishful thinking since I own him, but while he's been fairly solid this season, he hasn't been the elite hitter we've come to expect him to be yet (ignoring last season as that was an obvious fluke regardless).

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

 

Rendon is a shocking one.  His only real issue in the past was staying healthy, but to see him be truly awful is a huge surprise.

 

Whenever a guy has signs in his past that he doesn't really have a passion for baseball (which is definitely the case with Rendon) you can usually safely assume they're going to mentally check out at some point once they've gotten paid.  The fact that the Nationals, who know Rendon better than anyone and who aren't afraid to spend money, didn't extend him speaks volumes. 

Plus, there's the fact that Rendon has Scott Boras as his agent.  Frankly, when a player signs a guy with a guy like Boras I pretty much know where their head is at as a human being (hint: it's all about the money).  Not that I begrudge Boras or his clients ANYTHING, it's their prerogative to be soulless mercenaries, particularly considering that most owners of major sports franchises tend to be absolute scum.  

**A guy kind of similar to Rendon that I see being a gigantic bust if anyone hands him a huge contract is Carlos Correa.  He's going to do anything he can to stay on the field for this walk year, but once he gets that premium 10+ year deal (which you just know some franchise will be stupid enough to give him) I wager he'll become an oft-injured albatross pretty quickly.  

Edited by Overlord
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Wasn’t Cole a Boras client though? His passion for the game is remarkable.  

The guy who didn't wear an Astros cap after they cheated their way to a championship (something he was fully aware of and did nothing about) and instead wore a Scott Boras cap?

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/gerrit-cole-wears-boras-corp-hat-after-astros-world-series-loss-tweets-message-to-houston-fans/

The guy whose mind is often on service time manipulation and the player goals for the next collective bargaining agreement?

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-gerrit-cole-20210223-jgnyrnll4nbypfnxclb2wr26uq-story.html

Cole is Scott Boras material all the f***ing way.  His comments on service time manipulation make me think they should check to make sure Boras hasn't inserted his arm far enough up Cole's rectum to manipulate his mouth.  

Edited by Overlord
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He can be pro-money and pro-player. But my point is that these things aren’t mutually exclusive with baseball passion.  Cole is still hungry, looking to improve, competitive, and is having the best season of his career after signing that contract 

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Posted (edited)

Nobody who owns him wants to hear it, but the number one sell high candidate in perhaps the history of fantasy baseball is Fernando Tatis.

Nothing to do with talent, he looks like he'll be the first player off the board for years to come (when healthy), but if you're an owner in redraft leagues isn't the current situation exactly what you were hoping for when he hurt his shoulder?  The guy is one bad swing or slide away from missing the rest of the year for shoulder surgery.  I'd try to trade him for a package of something like Devers/T. Turner plus a pitcher at the Giolito/Nola level.  

In redraft leagues I would also look over the next month to trade high every pitcher who I don't think will be allowed to throw more than 130-160 innings OR who simply aren't used to pitching a full season and might get pretty damned tired around the ASB.  Freddy Peralta is the first name that jumps out at me, but there are a bunch.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Whenever a guy has signs in his past that he doesn't really have a passion for baseball (which is definitely the case with Rendon) you can usually safely assume they're going to mentally check out at some point once they've gotten paid.  The fact that the Nationals, who know Rendon better than anyone and who aren't afraid to spend money, didn't extend him speaks volumes. 

Plus, there's the fact that Rendon has Scott Boras as his agent.  Frankly, when a player signs a guy with a guy like Boras I pretty much know where their head is at as a human being (hint: it's all about the money).  Not that I begrudge Boras or his clients ANYTHING, it's their prerogative to be soulless mercenaries, particularly considering that most owners of major sports franchises tend to be absolute scum.  

**A guy kind of similar to Rendon that I see being a gigantic bust if anyone hands him a huge contract is Carlos Correa.  He's going to do anything he can to stay on the field for this walk year, but once he gets that premium 10+ year deal (which you just know some franchise will be stupid enough to give him) I wager he'll become an oft-injured albatross pretty quickly.  

I'm sorry what? Are you close friends with Rendon's personal psychiatrist? 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I'm sorry what? Are you close friends with Rendon's personal psychiatrist? 

I'm talking about a couple things, first his demeanor and apparent interest level when he's out there playing, and second, articles containing quotes like these:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2133276-nats-anthony-rendon-doesnt-watch-baseball-because-its-too-long-and-boring

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/sports/world-series-anthony-rendon-nationals.html

A sense of perspective and general disinterest in professional sports may be a good indicator that a person has a healthy, well-adjusted perspective on life, but if I'm going to bet on who is going to continue to be devoted to the game once they're worth hundreds of millions of dollars and aging towards 40 it's going to be a guy who lives and breathes baseball and doesn't have any energy for anything else.  

Edited by Overlord
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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Nobody who owns him wants to hear it, but the number one sell high candidate in perhaps the history of fantasy baseball is Fernando Tatis.

Nothing to do with talent, he looks like he'll be the first player off the board for years to come (when healthy), but if you're an owner in redraft leagues isn't the current situation exactly what you were hoping for when he hurt his shoulder?  The guy is one bad swing or slide away from missing the rest of the year for shoulder surgery.  I'd try to trade him for a package of something like Devers/T. Turner plus a pitcher at the Giolito/Nola level.  

In redraft leagues I would also look over the next month to trade high every pitcher who I don't think will be allowed to throw more than 130-160 innings OR who simply aren't used to pitching a full season and might get pretty damned tired around the ASB.  Freddy Peralta is the first name that jumps out at me, but there are a bunch.  

I made this exact same point recently, I forget which thread, and said exactly what you did-his owners know they can get a very safe return and won't do it. Trea Turner specifically and their ace is so easy to get right now, or get 2 pitchers including a closer if you need. People who drafted Tatis Jr. in the first place aren't interested in risk management or they wouldn't have drafted him in the first place, they're all-in on FTJ.

I think it's time to actively sell high on closers like Jansen (walking way too many guys but good surface stats) and Kimbrel (not walking anyone but the strength of the Chicago pen and the possibility of a trade still loom) along with the Rodriguez/Kennedy types that figure to go at the deadline. They're all good bargaining chips if you want to still try to buy low on someone like Lindor. He still seems a good buy low despite the horrible 2 months, his owner has to be willing to consider other options at this point. One other I'll mention is Yoan Moncada; his owner may be less than thrilled with the 4 HRs and lack of speed, but he's hitting .294 with a .421 OBP, so he's going to get to 100 R/RBI (he's around 30 of each so far) so you may still be able to pry him away cheap in non OBP leagues. 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

I'm talking about a couple things, first his demeanor and apparent interest level when he's out there playing, and second, articles containing quotes like these:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2133276-nats-anthony-rendon-doesnt-watch-baseball-because-its-too-long-and-boring

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/sports/world-series-anthony-rendon-nationals.html

A sense of perspective and general disinterest in professional sports may be a good indicator that a person has a healthy, well-adjusted perspective on life, but if I'm going to bet on who is going to continue to be devoted to the game once they're worth hundreds of millions of dollars and aging towards 40 it's going to be a guy who lives and breathes baseball and doesn't have any energy for anything else.  

So he's struggling because he appreciates the benefits of a work / life balance? You are reading wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much into this stuff. 

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1 minute ago, jmcampbe11 said:

So he's struggling because he appreciates the benefits of a work / life balance? You are reading wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much into this stuff. 

I do agree with this, there always is some need to have a narrative explaining a star player struggling. In Rendon's case you can simply point to a knee injury and small sample size at this point and still have to think he'll be far better going forward. It doesn't have to become something about the air in Southern California, or the vibe set forth by Joe Maddon, or anything like that. From what I saw the other day of him in the field, he seemed to be hustling and moving around well. I haven't seen him at the plate much as Angels games are usually too late for me to catch on the East Coast, but I think he was ranked way too high this year in the first place. it's hard to buy he can get near the value needed from his ranking. Still have to think he can be a top 100 guy, and there have been a lot of struggling 3B this year, but it's pretty shocking to see him ranked WELL outside the top 50 at the position when he was drafted 3rd or 4th.

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5 hours ago, Overlord said:

Whenever a guy has signs in his past that he doesn't really have a passion for baseball (which is definitely the case with Rendon) you can usually safely assume they're going to mentally check out at some point once they've gotten paid.  The fact that the Nationals, who know Rendon better than anyone and who aren't afraid to spend money, didn't extend him speaks volumes. 

Plus, there's the fact that Rendon has Scott Boras as his agent.  Frankly, when a player signs a guy with a guy like Boras I pretty much know where their head is at as a human being (hint: it's all about the money).  Not that I begrudge Boras or his clients ANYTHING, it's their prerogative to be soulless mercenaries, particularly considering that most owners of major sports franchises tend to be absolute scum.  

**A guy kind of similar to Rendon that I see being a gigantic bust if anyone hands him a huge contract is Carlos Correa.  He's going to do anything he can to stay on the field for this walk year, but once he gets that premium 10+ year deal (which you just know some franchise will be stupid enough to give him) I wager he'll become an oft-injured albatross pretty quickly.  

I've only owned him very briefly once, so I wasn't really aware of his lack of passion for the game.  Then forget I said anything about him. :)

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7 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I've only owned him very briefly once, so I wasn't really aware of his lack of passion for the game.  Then forget I said anything about him. :)

I respect guys who are honest about this, although I'm sure MLB cringes at any negative mention of the game from star players. Ty Buttrey of the Angels mentioned a lack of passion in his retirement announcement this year and it was good to see a non-filtered perspective on it from an athlete. But as far as analyzing someone from a buy low perspective, I stick to the numbers. 

The whole idea behind a buy low is to pick a guy with a long track record-the longer the better-who has putrid numbers, and make an offer on the basis that he will go back to being closer to who we know him to be. So of course, Lindor and Rendon stand out as obvious underperformers, but these are still guys you will need to pay something to get. If they are owned by someone who isn't in desperation mode, they may usually just figure they'll hang on for the turn around.

The timing of buying low is very important, because one big game can be enough to convince an owner on the fence to hold on. Rendon has 5 RBI and counting tonight, and Lindor has started hitting in recent days, so it's sort of last call if you want to buy there. Even when Jorge Soler had a 6 RBI game about 2 weeks ago, it convinced people to hold on a bit longer. So in a truest sense, there are LOTS of struggling hitters that will cost next to nothing to acquire and can be expected to help teams in the right situation. Andrew McCutchen had a 2 HR game tonight, for example, and he's a guy no one wants to tell you to trade for, but if you have a team in need of some cheap power, 4th OFer type, and can afford to weather some slumps, he's there for the taking. 

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12 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Nate Lowe a buy low ?

I don't know if I would actively target him.  He's been such a strange player to own going on mini streaks just when you are ready to pull the plug.  He is walking a good amount but not doing much else when he gets pitches to hit.  I'm basically holding on right now because I have no choice with injuries and lack of talent on the waiver wire.  

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6 hours ago, knifeparty said:

I don't know if I would actively target him.  He's been such a strange player to own going on mini streaks just when you are ready to pull the plug.  He is walking a good amount but not doing much else when he gets pitches to hit.  I'm basically holding on right now because I have no choice with injuries and lack of talent on the waiver wire.  

Same with me.  I got him free on the wire early in the season and have had him in most of the time.  Lately he's been unproductive from a fantasy standpoint.  Did hit a HR recently, but I parked him on my bench for this week and I think he'll be there until he heats up again.  I like the overall profile and think he'll be up and down all season long as he gets his real first taste at a full time MLB gig.   

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On 6/1/2021 at 3:48 PM, Dr. Whom said:

Nate Lowe a buy low ?

Are you sure you want to buy Nate Lowe.  At Coors 1-8 with 1 RS & 2 BB. I bought him a month ago and I’m sorry I did. There’s really nothing to see here. 

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Cedric Mullins is looking like a buy high to me.  ADP in the 400s, has produced top 50 overall player numbers, but he never really got much prospect hype in fantasy circles, and I'm guessing there are leagues where the team rostering him would be looking to cash him in as more of a top 100 value after his second 2 HR game of the season.  I still think he's more of a 20 HR guy rather than the 25 or 30 he's pacing for, but I don't ever see the O's giving him a red light on the basepaths, and the plate skill seem to have taken a significant step forward this year.

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