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Tanner Houck 2021 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, slaphitter said:

Definite add if you can. Upside is better than both Richards and Perez. He'll be in the rotation down the stretch

Cora said he'd be using him in the bullpen this weekend and that Houck would likely start against Toronto on Wednesday. Tough matchup, but he had a 12:1 K:BB rate I believe in his limited action, so I'm interested, even if he doesn't figure to work deeper than the 6th inning in most starts. 

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26K/7BB in 21 innings at AAA this year so far, and only walked two in his 13.1IP in the majors. If he keeps the walks down he'll be pretty good. Mid 90's sinker and four seamer(velo up from last year), and a mid 80's slider, with a splitter mixed in occasionally. If he can get strikes with the FB/sinker, his slider is a legit strikeout pitch with a 43 whiff%. 

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On 7/15/2021 at 12:06 PM, crotchcrickets said:

would love to add the guy but yahoo is a dogshit platform.

Does he start down the stretch?  Is he up for good?  Outlook optimistic?

Before the All Star break the Red Sox said Houck would be called up right after and they were going to a 6 man rotation for July since they have few days off and the other 5 pitchers have pitched all season long without ever being on the IL so could use an extra day between starts.

What they will do when Sale is hopefully coming back in August is anybody's guess.  If all these pitchers remain healthy (big if in this day and age) most people here see Garrett Richards sent to the dog house, err ... bullpen.  Except Richards needs a couple of innings to "settle in" and his worst innings are the first two. 

Bottom line?  If Houck runs with it he will stay in the rotation.  This is a seize the moment situation for him.

12 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Add him as he can be an ace.

He is no ace and can't see he will ever be.  But he does have a wicked slider and if a team hasn't faced him in person before and got the timing down he has an edge with that.  If he develops another pitch he could be maybe a #4 in a rotation though.  A #3 if he hits his ceiling. 

On the Sox he certainly would be better than Richards and Martin Perez.  Pivetta is a wild card with good potential so that is a toss up.  He is inconsistent with bad starts followed by brilliant ones so they aren't giving up on him.  Garrett Whitlock, who is recovering from Tommy John still this season and being used in the bullpen, will most likely be in the starting rotation next year since his stuff is absolutely filthy.  Anyway the Sox planned for him to be a starter in 2022 when they picked him up.

So for dynasty leagues IF the Sox sign no new starters in the off season -- and they probably will -- you have Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck as their starter pool of six with Noah Song hopefully moving up quickly after his Navy stint and Connor Seabold in the mix eventually too.  (Perez and Richards were on one year deals and good riddance to them)

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Before the All Star break the Red Sox said Houck would be called up right after and they were going to a 6 man rotation for July since they have few days off and the other 5 pitchers have pitched all season long without ever being on the IL so could use an extra day between starts.

What they will do when Sale is hopefully coming back in August is anybody's guess.  If all these pitchers remain healthy (big if in this day and age) most people here see Garrett Richards sent to the dog house, err ... bullpen.  Except Richards needs a couple of innings to "settle in" and his worst innings are the first two. 

Bottom line?  If Houck runs with it he will stay in the rotation.  This is a seize the moment situation for him.

He is no ace and can't see he will ever be.  But he does have a wicked slider and if a team hasn't faced him in person before and got the timing down he has an edge with that.  If he develops another pitch he could be maybe a #4 in a rotation though.  A #3 if he hits his ceiling. 

On the Sox he certainly would be better than Richards and Martin Perez.  Pivetta is a wild card with good potential so that is a toss up.  He is inconsistent with bad starts followed by brilliant ones so they aren't giving up on him.  Garrett Whitlock, who is recovering from Tommy John still this season and being used in the bullpen, will most likely be in the starting rotation next year since his stuff is absolutely filthy.  Anyway the Sox planned for him to be a starter in 2022 when they picked him up.

So for dynasty leagues IF the Sox sign no new starters in the off season -- and they probably will -- you have Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck as their starter pool of six with Noah Song hopefully moving up quickly after his Navy stint and Connor Seabold in the mix eventually too.  (Perez and Richards were on one year deals and good riddance to them)

10.13 K/9 1.35 BB/9 2.34 FIP 2.84 xFIP 

Why can’t he be an ace?

 

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22 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

10.13 K/9 1.35 BB/9 2.34 FIP 2.84 xFIP 

Why can’t he be an ace?

Those stats are from a 13.1-inning sample which included two relief appearances. Pretty much any MLB pitcher is capable of a good 13-inning run.

He’s never had good control over any length of time. You can double that 1.35 BB/9 and it’d still be better than anything he posted in the minors.

Edited by SpartyOn4
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7 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Those stats are from a 13.1-inning sample which included two relief appearances. Pretty much any MLB pitcher is capable of a good 13-inning run.

He’s never had good control over any length of time. You can double that 1.35 BB/9 and it’d still be better than anything he posted in the minors.

What if he gets his control in check? What if he did in fact? 

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Anyone else after watching video of him... get a Chris Sale from the right side vibe?  I gotta say... I think I'm all in.  That slider is NASTY!

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16 minutes ago, Adama said:

Anyone else after watching video of him... get a Chris Sale from the right side vibe?  I gotta say... I think I'm all in.  That slider is NASTY!

You need to throw more than one really good plus pitch in the majors.  After a couple AB's major league hitters figure that out.

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I think he needs to improve his sinker and splitter if he wants a chance at a starting rotation job. Slider is easily his best pitch per current savant stats. Could have a late inning role if he can't figure it out for dynasty.

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Unless someone like Richards gets put in the pen or another SP gets hurt, I don't think Houck will enter the rotation anytime soon. Especially with Sale returning eventually.

He'll probably be used when Richards implodes after just a few innings or someone else got raked and couldn't finish their start. Or they could move Richards to the pen and in his place have Houck and Sale throw 4 innings a piece for a while until they get stretched out a bit more. 

Houck definitely has good stuff and is being groomed as a starter but probably gets used in a variety of way this season unless there are a few injuries. 

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7 minutes ago, tonywow said:

Unless someone like Richards gets put in the pen or another SP gets hurt, I don't think Houck will enter the rotation anytime soon. Especially with Sale returning eventually.

He'll probably be used when Richards implodes after just a few innings or someone else got raked and couldn't finish their start. Or they could move Richards to the pen and in his place have Houck and Sale throw 4 innings a piece for a while until they get stretched out a bit more. 

Houck definitely has good stuff and is being groomed as a starter but probably gets used in a variety of way this season unless there are a few injuries. 

I tend to agree it will likely shake out this way; there are a group of good young pitchers like this-Javier, Kopech, Antone, etc.-who have had their roles limited somewhat for fantasy purposes, due mostly to the way teams are approaching them following the weirdness of 2020. Most of the them look like good late-round fliers for starting pitching depth next year, but can't be expected to contribute much volume for the rest of 2021. I do think Houck has a chance to step into Richards' spot though. Garret has been atrocious lately and is completely lost without his sticky substance of choice. Houck can really help his cause by turning in a strong outing against Toronto to force the issue.

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It's one thing to to dominate as a reliever.  It's entirely another to start a game and go thru an order 3 or 4 times.   I think people need to temper their expectations here.

His minor league numbers don't exactly scream ace.  The only time he had an ERA under 4 in the minors was in low A.  Overall in the minors he's had a 4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, with 4BB per 9.   Obviously lots players do develop and improve over time.  Many bloom when it's time for major league action.  Houck may be that guy, but I'd be cautious in expecting a lot.

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4 hours ago, tonywow said:

Unless someone like Richards gets put in the pen or another SP gets hurt, I don't think Houck will enter the rotation anytime soon. Especially with Sale returning eventually.

He'll probably be used when Richards implodes after just a few innings or someone else got raked and couldn't finish their start. Or they could move Richards to the pen and in his place have Houck and Sale throw 4 innings a piece for a while until they get stretched out a bit more. 

Houck definitely has good stuff and is being groomed as a starter but probably gets used in a variety of way this season unless there are a few injuries. 

Houck IS in the rotation.  I mentioned that in a post just a little above yours.

Again, what I said was the Sox have gone to a 6 man rotation post All Stars which they announced even before the All Star game.  The reason is because the 5 current starters have not been injured all year and have made all their starts and the Sox want to leave some bullets in their arms over a long stretch with no days off. 

I also mentioned Richards to the pen could be an option BUT also mentioned his first inning is by far his worst.  His second inning isn't anything to write home about either.  He is very slow to get going.  Which is not a good m.o. for a reliever.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Man he was really rolling tonight, I was not watching as I was flipping between Patino and Alzolay's games, but the rain came and washed away a chance at what could have been a really good outing. At least the game was enough to make him an easy hold, and seriously consider grabbing if still available. I'll take him over Josiah Gray and Luis Patino, if you're torn between some of the other young arms that came up in the past few days.

Edited by Richard Kimble
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45 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Man he was really rolling tonight, I was not watching as I was flipping between Patino and Alzolay's games, but the rain came and washed away a chance at what could have been a really good outing. At least the game was enough to make him an easy hold, and seriously consider grabbing if still available. I'll take him over Josiah Gray and Luis Patino, if you're torn between some of the other young arms that came up in the past few days.

Appreciate the write up.  

 

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53 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Man he was really rolling tonight, I was not watching as I was flipping between Patino and Alzolay's games, but the rain came and washed away a chance at what could have been a really good outing. At least the game was enough to make him an easy hold, and seriously consider grabbing if still available. I'll take him over Josiah Gray and Luis Patino, if you're torn between some of the other young arms that came up in the past few days.

One of the 2 "hits"  allowed was a one bouncer right to the shortstop who held onto it for safety reasons because the field was flooded. 

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

One of the 2 "hits"  allowed was a one bouncer right to the shortstop who held onto it for safety reasons because the field was flooded. 

Yeah the umps decided after that "hit" they better call for the tarp because the next grounder to short Xander would need scuba gear to retrieve.

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