Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

Year 3 of a 5 year rebuild.

Primary weapon tore his ACL in Week 2.

Context.

Yeah that's what he gets for drafting a RB 2nd overall. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 212
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

He'll disappear into the depths of the internet, like some kind of Cybernetic Ghost or something

What’s funny to me is Lance at 3 is a realistic possibility. The noise of him going at 3 started like a week ago. No one is going to argue with this dude that Lance isn’t going at 3 because it’s

Posted Images

31 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

As opposed to drafting Sam Darnold #2 overall.

 

or any of the 4 pro bowlers at more important positions than RB that went after Darnold

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, smeeze said:

or any of the 4 pro bowlers at more important positions than RB that went after Darnold

 

 

Hindsight is 20/20

 

The Armchair and Twitter GMs ripped him specifically for not drafting Sam Darnold in particular. Not anybody else after Darnold - but specifically Darnold.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

 

Hindsight is 20/20

 

The Armchair and Twitter GMs ripped him specifically for not drafting Sam Darnold in particular. Not anybody else after Darnold - but specifically Darnold.

It’s not even hindsight. I was here on this forum advocating for Nelson or Chubb. I wasn’t the only one either nor will I claim I’m some genius or something. You don’t need hindsight to know that taking a RB at #2 is a bad idea when you have huge problems at more important positions. Hindsight would be saying they should’ve taken Allen.

How Nelson even got to 6 in that draft still blows my mind. I know guards don’t usually go as high as other offensive linemen but he was nearly as impressive as Barkley as a prospect but at a more valuable position with significantly more longevity. Plus, it’s kind of obvious he can also play tackle. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It’s not even hindsight. I was here on this forum advocating for Nelson or Chubb. I wasn’t the only one either nor will I claim I’m some genius or something. You don’t need hindsight to know that taking a RB at #2 is a bad idea when you have huge problems at more important positions. Hindsight would be saying they should’ve taken Allen.

How Nelson even got to 6 in that draft still blows my mind. I know guards don’t usually go as high as other offensive linemen but he was nearly as impressive as Barkley as a prospect but at a more valuable position with significantly more longevity. Plus, it’s kind of obvious he can also play tackle. 


A victory lap about Barkley as a bust already? LOL

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


A victory lap about Barkley as a bust already? LOL

Where did I say Barkley is a bust? I really liked him out of college and still like him. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with taking an RB that high is even if they pan out, you're not getting much excess value out of them bc being drafted #2 gives them a contract well above the RB average. If an RB puts your team over the top as a contender, I totally understand it. When you're undergoing a rebuild, not so much. There's a reason RBs being taken that high are pretty much unheard of these days, no matter how talented they are.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, trilly said:

The problem with taking an RB that high is even if they pan out, you're not getting much excess value out of them bc being drafted #2 gives them a contract well above the RB average. If an RB puts your team over the top as a contender, I totally understand it. When you're undergoing a rebuild, not so much. There's a reason RBs being taken that high are pretty much unheard of these days, no matter how talented they are.

Exactly. It's not like an OT or DE will suddenly turn your team around either but RBs are a lot easier to replace down the line and the shelf life is a lot shorter.

If you are picking second overall you are most likely looking at a rebuild that is going to take a couple years. If you do a good job on your rebuilt and are finally starting to turn the corner there is a good chance your RB already has too much miles to consistently contribute. There's a good chance also that a back that good is going to want like 12M+ when FA can have a guy for closer to 5M who realistically wouldn't be that much worse.

Sure there are cases where RBs have a lot of value like Lynch on Seattle and Zeke in Dallas but even Zeke after he got paid has become nowhere near worth his contract. 

Nailing an absolute stud on the offensive or defensive line is going to give you 10-15 years of elite production at a position that is hard to replace. Also, assuming a successful rebuild (which i'm sure every GM assumes) this will put your valuable pick around their prime ready to contribute at an important position that is hard to replace right as you become a contender. If you draft an elite RB you are looking at 3-5 years of elite production in most cases. Which means that right when you are ready to put the league on notice your valuable pick is either at the back end of their prime or past it at a position that you can replace in FA for half the cost. That's why drafting RBs high is and always will be a bad idea. It's a sign of short sighted evaluation.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

It’s not even hindsight. I was here on this forum advocating for Nelson or Chubb. I wasn’t the only one either nor will I claim I’m some genius or something. You don’t need hindsight to know that taking a RB at #2 is a bad idea when you have huge problems at more important positions. Hindsight would be saying they should’ve taken Allen.

How Nelson even got to 6 in that draft still blows my mind. I know guards don’t usually go as high as other offensive linemen but he was nearly as impressive as Barkley as a prospect but at a more valuable position with significantly more longevity. Plus, it’s kind of obvious he can also play tackle. 

 

I'm not talking about you.

 

I'm talking about 90% of the Armchair GMs out there. They would have taken Sam Darnold.

 

Even Giants beat reporters (Jordan Raanan for example) said immediately after the draft that they would have drafted Darnold after Cleveland passed.

 

Gettleman properly identified "Sam Darnold is not a Franchise QB". He was 100% correct on that specific assessment.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

Gettleman properly identified "Sam Darnold is not a Franchise QB". He was 100% correct on that specific assessment.

 

That is 100% not what he identified.

It's closer to him identifying that Manning still was a viable starting QB and Barkley worth more than a franchise drafting QB.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, colorado2013 said:

 

That is 100% not what he identified.

It's closer to him identifying that Manning still was a viable starting QB and Barkley worth more than a franchise drafting QB.

 

No, that is 100% what he idenitified. Darnold was an inaccurate, slow-processing Turnover-machine at USC who played in an elementary Shotgun Offense and whose demeanor never fit New York. Gettleman snuffed that out easily. He never liked Darnold. I can tell.

 

There's a reason why Gettleman had Justin Herbert rated as his #1 QB in 2019+2020 combined.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

No, that is 100% what he idenitified. Darnold was an inaccurate, slow-processing Turnover-machine at USC who played in an elementary Shotgun Offense and whose demeanor never fit New York. Gettleman snuffed that out easily. He never liked Darnold. I can tell.

 

There's a reason why Gettleman had Justin Herbert rated as his #1 QB in 2019+2020 combined.

 

While it is certainly possible that he didn't like Darnold, the only thing we actually know (because that is the path he took) is that he thought Manning was a viable QB and Barkley was more valuable than drafting a franchise QB. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If this guy slid out of the first round tomorrow I wouldn’t be at all surprised. There seems to be a very vocal group of fans and media that are convinced he’s the real deal and that NDSU is this magical small school quarterback farm, but the more analysis I read the more I’m not sure if the actual NFL scouts and GM’s feel the same way. It only takes one team to make me wrong, but if I were to put money on who I think is most likely to take a Brady Quinn-like slide, Trey Lance is my bet.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TsR1823 said:

If this guy slid out of the first round tomorrow I wouldn’t be at all surprised. There seems to be a very vocal group of fans and media that are convinced he’s the real deal and that NDSU is this magical small school quarterback farm, but the more analysis I read the more I’m not sure if the actual NFL scouts and GM’s feel the same way. It only takes one team to make me wrong, but if I were to put money on who I think is most likely to take a Brady Quinn-like slide, Trey Lance is my bet.

Not the biggest Lance fan but I'd be stunned. I have seen rumors of quite a few teams rumored to be in love with him. He will go somewhere from 3 to 15. No idea if he works out--a true wild card--but I have little doubt he has a lot of love among scouts and coaches seeing a smart kid with loads of physical talent and hoping he becomes Mahomes or Josh Allen and just picks up the NFL game fast--even if he terrifies some GMs

Edited by mocha4313
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TsR1823 said:

If this guy slid out of the first round tomorrow I wouldn’t be at all surprised. There seems to be a very vocal group of fans and media that are convinced he’s the real deal and that NDSU is this magical small school quarterback farm, but the more analysis I read the more I’m not sure if the actual NFL scouts and GM’s feel the same way. It only takes one team to make me wrong, but if I were to put money on who I think is most likely to take a Brady Quinn-like slide, Trey Lance is my bet.

I’d be pretty surprised because someone would likely trade back into the first if he starts sliding.

That being said, Lance and Jones are both prone to slide I think if not selected by 49ers.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

That being said, Lance and Jones are both prone to slide I think if not selected by 49ers.

I think we still have 4 teams (maybe 5 with WFT) that might/should be interested in a QB, if we assume Jax/Jets/49ers take the first 3:
- Panthers (Darnold)
- Bears (Dalton)
- Lions (Goff)
- Broncos (Lock)

I wouldn't be too surprised if either of these zoos grab whoever is left of Lance/Fields/Jones(/Mond). We don't know the urgency they feel, but it might well be a chicken race to see who can wait the longest.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Don’t get me wrong, I think that a slide out of the first is extremely unlikely as well. I’m just saying that if it’s going to happen, my money is on Lance.

I think the NDSU coaching staff has a lot riding on him getting drafted in the first and his stock has inflated to crazy levels. Evaluating NFL readiness of quarterbacks is a subject that has consistently fooled some of the best talent evaluators in the NFL, so it’s not a hill that I’m about to die on, but from what I’ve read and watched, he seems like that kid that you played against in pee wee football that was shaving at 11. He’s a good athlete on really good team, both relative to competition. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mac Jones faced better defenses in practice than what Trey Lance was putting up highlights against.

I also have trouble reconciling the fact that we saw him play one “showcase” game in 2020 against Central Arkansas where he didn’t look great, and that he wouldn’t run the 40 at either of his pro days because he felt that it’s a poor talent evaluation tool. Rather, he felt that gunning passes in shorts and a tee shirt with no defense was so much better of a talent evaluator that he held two of these events. It just really seems like they’re trying to manufacture a first round pick and whoever falls for it is going to end up in the bread line.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/24/2021 at 1:46 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

MORA Jr.: "He's the unknown. He didn't play a lot. He only had 17 starts. The talent is undeniable. The ability to throw the ball, his size, his stature, the production when he does play -- all those things are obvious. They're not in dispute.

 

What's in dispute is the number of games that he has played and the sample size you're evaluating. He's a projection. He will be best served going to a team where he can sit and learn. That doesn't happen a lot in the NFL. Now listen, if the 49ers draft him and Jimmy Garoppolo stays and he can sit behind Jimmy and learn, then that's probably a good thing for him.

"But to me, it's a scary pick. These coaches, they're going to go to the workout and see him throw on air, throw with accuracy and strength and timing and touch and become very enamored, but do they have to enough film to truly project whether he can be a franchise quarterback? That's a decision every franchise is going to have to make for themselves. I can't sit here and tell you that everybody thinks the same way. I think some have great conviction that this can be the guy, and there are some that go, 'Man, I don't know.' And if there's a little bit of, 'Man, I don't know,' you don't take a guy that high. If there's any hesitation, you pass."
 

Q: Lance seems like the kind of quarterback that scouts would like because you project his potential. But I've talked to lots of coaches who say, 'Potential gets you fired.'

MORA Jr.: "Absolutely. There are studies out there about guys who have come into the league with minimal amounts of starts, and what their success ratio is when they come into the NFL, and it's not a great success ratio. There's some hesitation there for me. But I have so much confidence in John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan that if Lance is the pick, I'm going to say they know a hell of a lot more than me. They did their research. So I will say that was the right pick, because it's the pick they have conviction about, and they know more than any of us. They know things about these guys that you and I could never imagine."

Q: Lance certainly lacks experience, but does the fact he played at North Dakota State, and ran a pro-style offense, and had autonomy at the line of scrimmage to make decisions, and the fact that he didn't turn the ball over -- are those things that intrigue you about him?

MORA Jr.: "Yeah, without a doubt. You look at his TD to INT ratio. Does he take a sack or does he throw it away and live to play another down? Is he a winner? What kind of offense was he in? Who's coaching him now in the offseason? How much progress has he made since he has been working with this coach? Those are things that can give you a lot of confidence when you're making the pick. And again, I have so much confidence in Kyle and John, rather than being skeptical of the pick, I would say, 'Boy, they knew something I didn't know.'"
 

 

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-draft-49ers-odds-san-francisco-now-will-take-trey-lance-not-mac-jones-with-no-3-overall-pick-according-to-sportsbooks/

 

Currently, though, Lance is -200 with Jones +150 and Fields +850

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/21/2021 at 1:44 PM, Gohawks said:

You’re right everyone in the media is a dumb a**.

On the other hand, PisEdiRin is the chosen one. Schefter and Rapoport shake in their boots at the fear of losing their jobs due to the all knowing one. 

 

Who's currently the betting odds favorite, genius?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/21/2021 at 4:06 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


lol, it’s funny to try and take someone seriously who doesn’t even comprehend betting lines. 
 

you can not bet, that’s fine. Part of understanding the ebb and flow of sports is to understand betting lines and favorites, etc... because the sharpest minds in sports set those lines, so they have a good idea of what they are doing.

 

so someone could have no idea how to place a sports bet or what betting means or is but at the same time has 100% insight into the type of QB Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch would prefer to draft.

 

This post aged very poorly.

 

Lance is the betting odds favorite.

 

Lance +400 was stealing. 

 

Told ya.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...