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Charlie Blackmon 2021 Outlook


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Charlie has been a rock since 2014 and hasn't finished with an OPS under .800 since 2015. His age 34 season has started cold, slashing just .184/.298/.327 in 57 PAs so far. He no longer has Arenado to protect him and the Rockies are a below average offense. 

What's the word on Blackmon in 2021? Many sites I trust (Razzball, PitcherList) have him ranked as a top 15 OF and top 50 overall player, but I see that more as his ceiling this year. 

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I think he comes around, but he's also at that age where he might come around but without returning to his prior heights. It appears is he is looking more labored out in RF, maybe some of that is carrying over to his offense. I am hopeful this is just a slow start, but I wouldn't go all in on him at this point of his career, as this could be the start of his decline.

As for protection, maybe yesterday was Cron's coming out party and he starts to heat up. If not, if McMahon's hot start is sustainable, maybe Black will move past his veteran bias and be willing to throw McMahon behind Blackmon for some protection. 

 

Edited by colorado2013
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44 minutes ago, colorado2013 said:

I think he comes around, but he's also at that age where he might come around but without returning to his prior heights. It appears is he is looking more labored out in RF, maybe some of that is carrying over to his offense. I am hopeful this is just a slow start, but I wouldn't go all in on him at this point of his career, as this could be the start of his decline.

As for protection, maybe yesterday was Cron's coming out party and he starts to heat up. If not, if McMahon's hot start is sustainable, maybe Black will move past his veteran bias and be willing to throw McMahon behind Blackmon for some protection. 

 

...and he doesn't even really have to reach his prior heights. He wasn't drafted in the 3rd / 4th round this year. He was drafted in the 8th / 9th. 

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Xba/xslg/xwoba of .278/.436/.353 vs .184/.327/.278 actual. Lowest K rate and highest BB rate of his career. BABIP ~120 points below career norms. Hard hit rate good, LD% up GB% down, HR/FB 8-10 points below career norms. Buy low and/or hold with confidence. 

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21 hours ago, ty5592 said:

Xba/xslg/xwoba of .278/.436/.353 vs .184/.327/.278 actual. Lowest K rate and highest BB rate of his career. BABIP ~120 points below career norms. Hard hit rate good, LD% up GB% down, HR/FB 8-10 points below career norms. Buy low and/or hold with confidence. 

Came here to make some comments along these lines, well said, hit the mail on the head... Also to add...

His 195 babip is too low considering his batted balls, 21% line drives, but 25% IFFB just a little off, his 38% hard hit rate is very good for his amount of contact and 8% higher than last year and 5% above career average... Statcast barrels of 9.5% highest of career... Swinging strikes of 8% are 2 under last year and in line with 7.8% career. 28% O-Swing is 4% better than career average and 2nd best of his career.

The only thing that stands out is he is really pull happy right now at 55% pull, 10% higher than any other year of his career... But that's about it.

I agree, he should settle in and be okay.

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Tonight should offer a prime opportunity for Blackmon to get going at Coors, with Vinny "Exit Velo" Velasquez filling in for the ailing (and sucking) Matt Moore.  Velasquez has kept Blackmon's bat mostly quiet over the years (.333 / .429 / .389), but has looked more like a long reliever / spot starter in recent years.  The Phillies bullpen has also shown some weakness lately after a strong start.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Tonight should offer a prime opportunity for Blackmon to get going at Coors, with Vinny "Exit Velo" Velasquez filling in for the ailing (and sucking) Matt Moore.  Velasquez has kept Blackmon's bat mostly quiet over the years (.333 / .429 / .389), but has looked more like a long reliever / spot starter in recent years.  The Phillies bullpen has also shown some weakness lately after a strong start.

The entire Rockies lineup is gonna have a breakout party tonight lol. 

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5 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

The entire Rockies lineup is gonna have a breakout party tonight lol.

11 hits and 4 dingers for the Rockies tonight, but nary a knock for our intrepid hero.  He looks lost at the plate right now.

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7 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

11 hits and 4 dingers for the Rockies tonight, but nary a knock for our intrepid hero.  He looks lost at the plate right now.

Sad times, I’m not ready for chuck nasty to fade into mediocrity. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Sucks if he misses the rest of the home stand...

 

 
(1 hr ago) Blackmon has a mild groin strain, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports

Blackmon was lifted for a pinch-runner in the fourth inning of Friday's win over the Reds, but it is unclear how he sustained the injury. It's positive that the strain is considered only mild, though it could still cost Blackmon playing time going forward.

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Surprising that he is slashing .213 at home and .286 on the road for a total avg of .242

On the positive side, he was looking to turn it around and was hitting .304 in the last seven days

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5 minutes ago, MonsterMan said:

On the positive side, he was looking to turn it around and was hitting .304 in the last seven days

No homers though.  I know the weather hasn't really warmed up yet, but if you're not getting anything from him on the road then he really needs to produce more than just an empty average for his games at Coors.  Statcast says he's been a bit unlucky, but we know that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent, and it's hard to stare at his lack of production for two months holding out hope for that magical run that lets you recoup some of his value.  The opportunity cost of holding him this long is already adding up for a lot of managers.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

No homers though.  I know the weather hasn't really warmed up yet, but if you're not getting anything from him on the road then he really needs to produce more than just an empty average for his games at Coors.  Statcast says he's been a bit unlucky, but we know that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent, and it's hard to stare at his lack of production for two months holding out hope for that magical run that lets you recoup some of his value.  The opportunity cost of holding him this long is already adding up for a lot of managers.

1 hr/9rbi slugging over .400 for his last 14 games.  assuming he can stay healthy the numbers should come as things warm up in col.

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Here are his per 162 home/road splits this year:

Home: 70 R, 14 HR, 98 RBI, .211 BA, .623 OPS

Road: 38 R, 0 HR, 66 RBI, .273 BA, .748 OPS

He isn't even giving you a Coors boost, outside of the RBI category, to date this year.

 

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Posted (edited)

Chuck Nazty will be fine if he's healthy. He's turned around the beginning year slump already but got banged up and was out last week mostly then hit SD aces last two. The season line is gross but the recent turnaround show better. The slugging should there by end of season. Further, not much in the waiver wire OF department. No matter when you got chuck, now is probably not the time to bail unless it's a small league.

Edited by tucker26
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30 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

Here are his per 162 home/road splits this year:

Home: 70 R, 14 HR, 98 RBI, .211 BA, .623 OPS

Road: 38 R, 0 HR, 66 RBI, .273 BA, .748 OPS

He isn't even giving you a Coors boost, outside of the RBI category, to date this year.

 

It hasn't been really good hitting weather yet, Coors in July is different than Coors in April. Tonight it is 70 degrees with winds blowing out. This guys is a buy low if any owner thinks he is cooked.

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  • 2 weeks later...

He has been hitting lately but the HRs continue to largely be absent. In his last 26 games he is hitting .313 with an OPS of .851 but only a 13 HR per 162 pace. Bad luck or is the power, which was absent in the abbreviated 2020 season as well, gone for good?

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Dude's going to be 35 in a month.  

Absent chemical help, baseball players usually see their performance fall off a cliff as they reach their mid 30s.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's a little early to be thinking about trade deadline scenarios -- who's a contender, etc. -- but just eyeballing the standings as of today, I don't see many teams that (a) are at or above .500, (b) would spend the money to acquire Blackmon's services, and (c) would see him as an upgrade over what they already have as a corner OF.  I guess if you pro-rate his $14 mil salary over just a couple of months he's close to the "luxury bench bat" price range for a team flush with cash, but given how he hasn't hit for power with the Coors bump, I'm not seeing anyone get interested unless he goes on a huge power tear in the next 6 weeks or so.

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