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Najee Harris 2021 Outlook


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Ben Roethlisberger said RB Najee Harris is "going to be something to see" in 2021.

Roethlisberger said the first-round rookie out of Alabama is adjusting well to the NFL in what will likely be a workhorse season in Pittsburgh. "He doesn't seem lost. It's not too big for him," Roethlisberger said. "His head's not spinning. ... The most exciting part is once he gets it and it clicks and he goes full speed." Every indication is that the Steelers burned a first rounder on Harris to make him the featured back in their lackluster rushing attack, which last season had the lowest yardage total in the NFL. Probably Harris won't have to be efficient to prove valuable for fantasy purposes. By August, the rookie could be a consensus first round pick in 12-team leagues.

Jun 1, 2021, 12:09 PM ET
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If you want to know what Harris will be like as a rookie, just look at David Montgomery's rookie season. Great back. Horrible line. Questionable usage.

It's the same damn thing.

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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If you want to know what Harris will be like as a rookie, just look at David Montgomery's rookie season. Great back. Horrible line. Questionable usage.

It's the same damn thing.


except for the fact that Najee is a better RB than Montgomery is, will not be in a timeshare, and that Pittsburgh has a better passing offense, QB, and defense than Monty as a rookie then I’d probably agree with you.

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51 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


except for the fact that Najee is a better RB than Montgomery is, will not be in a timeshare, and that Pittsburgh has a better passing offense, QB, and defense than Monty as a rookie then I’d probably agree with you.

David Montgomery has proven himself to be an elite NFL RB. Here's the list of RBs who have broken more tackles than DMont since he joined the league:

Derrick Henry.

That's it. That's the list. Montgomery is already on a short list of the best RBs in the league. I think it's foolish to assume a RB who's never taken a snap in the NFL is a better back. 

What timeshare? Mongomery had almost 250 carries his rookie season. Volume has never been a problem.

Ben is very old now, but I'll give you that he and the Steelers pass offense are better than what Monty had. They also tend to rely on him at the expense of the running game.

The Steelers have a great defense, but the Bears don't exactly have a bad defense. Not sure that's a significant difference. 

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10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

David Montgomery has proven himself to be an elite NFL RB. Here's the list of RBs who have broken more tackles than DMont since he joined the league:

Derrick Henry.

Remember when Trent Richardson had a better broken tackle rate than Jamaal Charles, Leveon Bell, Arian Foster, Lesean McCoy, and Demarco Murray?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/broken-tackles-2014-offenses

 

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20 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Montgomery is already on a short list of the best RBs in the league.

Yeah I think that’s a little premature. I don’t remember too many people banging the drum for David Montgomery until the last couple games of the season when he was receiving 20+ carries (and one game 32!) a game. Yes, he did have a nice stretch where he thrashed three teams(DET, HOU, JAX) who were bottom 5 run defenses in the league. But short list of best rbs in the league? Not hardly, at least for me. I’d need to say way more than a 5 game stretch to even put him near the top 10.

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17 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

David Montgomery has proven himself to be an elite NFL RB. Here's the list of RBs who have broken more tackles than DMont since he joined the league:

Derrick Henry.

That's it. That's the list. Montgomery is already on a short list of the best RBs in the league. I think it's foolish to assume a RB who's never taken a snap in the NFL is a better back. 

What timeshare? Mongomery had almost 250 carries his rookie season. Volume has never been a problem.

Ben is very old now, but I'll give you that he and the Steelers pass offense are better than what Monty had. They also tend to rely on him at the expense of the running game.

The Steelers have a great defense, but the Bears don't exactly have a bad defense. Not sure that's a significant difference. 


sorry, you said to see what Najee will be as a rookie to look at David Montgomery’s rookie season where he had 889 yards and 6 TDs on the ground and 185 yards through the air on 25 receptions with 1 TD.  267 total touches.

 

Not bad, I’m not knocking David Montgomery at all but I’m not looking at his rookie season fantasy output and saying that is what Najee will do. 
 

for Najee I will take the Over on yards. Over 1,000. I’m taking the over on Rushing TD’s. Over 9.5. I’m taking the over on receptions Over 35. I’m taking the over on receiving yards, Over 300. I’m taking the over on receiving TDs. Over 3. 
 

that would be quite a bit better than Monty as a rookie.
 

I think all combined Najee will have 1200-1300 total yards and 12-13 total TDs

 

 

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21 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


sorry, you said to see what Najee will be as a rookie to look at David Montgomery’s rookie season where he had 889 yards and 6 TDs on the ground and 185 yards through the air on 25 receptions with 1 TD.  267 total touches.

 

Not bad, I’m not knocking David Montgomery at all but I’m not looking at his rookie season fantasy output and saying that is what Najee will do. 
 

for Najee I will take the Over on yards. Over 1,000. I’m taking the over on Rushing TD’s. Over 9.5. I’m taking the over on receptions Over 35. I’m taking the over on receiving yards, Over 300. I’m taking the over on receiving TDs. Over 3. 
 

that would be quite a bit better than Monty as a rookie.
 

I think all combined Najee will have 1200-1300 total yards and 12-13 total TDs

 

 

And I would smash those unders, even in a 17 game season. 

Strong agree to disagree here. Ben is going to throw a lot, and that line can't block. Najee will have a great career, but he's going to let people down this season.

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24 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yeah I think that’s a little premature. I don’t remember too many people banging the drum for David Montgomery until the last couple games of the season when he was receiving 20+ carries (and one game 32!) a game. Yes, he did have a nice stretch where he thrashed three teams(DET, HOU, JAX) who were bottom 5 run defenses in the league. But short list of best rbs in the league? Not hardly, at least for me. I’d need to say way more than a 5 game stretch to even put him near the top 10.

I'm talking real life football. Montgomery is an elite NFL RB. He may or may not continue to be inconsistent for fantasy, but his skillset as a RB is phenomenal.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I'm talking real life football. Montgomery is an elite NFL RB. He may or may not continue to be inconsistent for fantasy, but his skillset as a RB is phenomenal.

But didn't you say previously point out in the Julio Jones thread that this was a football forum?

Edited by ThreadKiller
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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

David Montgomery has proven himself to be an elite NFL RB. Here's the list of RBs who have broken more tackles than DMont since he joined the league:

Derrick Henry.

That's it. That's the list. Montgomery is already on a short list of the best RBs in the league. I think it's foolish to assume a RB who's never taken a snap in the NFL is a better back. 

What timeshare? Mongomery had almost 250 carries his rookie season. Volume has never been a problem.

Ben is very old now, but I'll give you that he and the Steelers pass offense are better than what Monty had. They also tend to rely on him at the expense of the running game.

The Steelers have a great defense, but the Bears don't exactly have a bad defense. Not sure that's a significant difference. 

As a Bears fan I can tell you he's hardly ELITE.  He's good but not special. Good all around back.  A bit small and no break away speed.  A good RB2 or flex player.

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18 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

But didn't you say previously point out in the Julio Jones thread that this was a football forum?

In this case, I was directly responding to DHC's claim that Najee is a better NFL RB than Monty, which was one of the reasons he listed in support of Najee for fantasy purposes.

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4 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

As a Bears fan I can tell you he's hardly ELITE.  He's good but not special. Good all around back.  A bit small and no break away speed.  A good RB2 or flex player.

I'm also a Bears fan. Monty is an elite NFL RB. Period. Vision. Patience. Physicality. Instincts. Elusiveness. Pass catching. Pass protection. He's got everything except 4.3 speed.

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

In this case, I was directly responding to DHC's claim that Najee is a better NFL RB than Monty, which was one of the reasons he listed in support of Najee for fantasy purposes.

It's no worries man, I'm just messin with ya!

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

I'm also a Bears fan. Monty is an elite NFL RB. Period. Vision. Patience. Physicality. Instincts. Elusiveness. Pass catching. Pass protection. He's got everything except 4.3 speed.

Have to disagree.  I wish they would draft another young rb to eventually take his place.  He will be slow in 3 or 4 years.  The Bears lack speed as it is.

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I'm also a Bears fan. Monty is an elite NFL RB. Period. Vision. Patience. Physicality. Instincts. Elusiveness. Pass catching. Pass protection. He's got everything except 4.3 speed.


so good they signed Damien Williams, drafted Khalil Herbert and extended Cohen.

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Pro Football Focus released their projections for Harris’ rookie season in the league, and those stats would put him pretty high up on the active running back rankings list.

PFF predicts Harris will run for 1,397 yards and score nine touchdowns.

In the final 2020 season running back rankings, these stats would put Harris at No. 3 in the league for rushing yards and No. 10 for rushing touchdowns.

That would make for a pretty solid rookie season in the league, especially considering how competitive the AFC North will be in 2021.

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45 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


so good they signed Damien Williams, drafted Khalil Herbert and extended Cohen.

Williams is here as a vet who has a history with Nagy. Herbert probably won't take a snap this year, and Cohen is a 3rd down back.

Monty is the guy. He'll get 300 touches again this year.

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46 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Pro Football Focus released their projections for Harris’ rookie season in the league, and those stats would put him pretty high up on the active running back rankings list.

PFF predicts Harris will run for 1,397 yards and score nine touchdowns.

In the final 2020 season running back rankings, these stats would put Harris at No. 3 in the league for rushing yards and No. 10 for rushing touchdowns.

That would make for a pretty solid rookie season in the league, especially considering how competitive the AFC North will be in 2021.

So Najee Harris is rookie year Adrian Peterson. Sure... color me skeptical. 

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