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Kyle Pitts 2021 Outlook


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All the other soon to be rookies are getting a thread so why not this freak of nature? Might as well get it started now. Largest wingspan in modern history, 6’6 TE that runs routes and has the sudden quickness of an all pro receiver while running way faster than a man his size should. Many are calling him the best TE prospect ever, and I’m curious as to where he ends up. Either way, he’s a special talent that should be a dominant player for a long time.

Edited by killa3312
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Just look at the history of rookie TEs and it’ll tell you he will be way over drafted.

And I get the “he’s a “generational” player etc etc” argument but so were guys like Winslow, Ebron, and Hockenson.

The position has produced one 1,000 yard season and that was in 1961. Since the turn of the century only 2 have even broke 700 yards their rookie season. I’m sure the prospect hype will carry his ADP into like the 60-70 range and no damn way am I going to take the risk to see if he is going to break the trend. 

Edited by Gohawks
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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Just look at the history of rookie TEs and it’ll tell you he will be way over drafted.

And I get the “he’s a “generational” player etc etc” argument but so were guys like Winslow, Ebron, and Hockenson.

The position has produced one 1,000 yard season and that was in 1961. Since the turn of the century only 2 have even broke 700 yards their rookie season. I’m sure the prospect hype will carry his ADP into like the 60-70 range and no damn way am I going to take the risk to see if he is going to break the trend. 

I think any team that the team that drafts him is going to want to cash in year 1 on his ridiculous receiving ability. I think we'll see him basically playing WR and therefore, not have to overcome the standard rookie growing pains of a typical TE. 

If Pitts goes to Atlanta I think CeeDee Lamb's rookie year is a great comp for potential usage in a crowded. talented lineup, specifically his time with Dak under center. 

5th round for me most likely. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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2 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

I think any team that the team that drafts him is going to want to cash in year 1 on his ridiculous receiving ability. I think we'll see him basically playing WR and therefore, not have to overcome the standard rookie growing pains of a typical TE. 

If Pitts goes to Atlanta I think CeeDee Lamb's rookie year is a great comp for potential usage in a crowded. talented lineup, specifically his time with Dak under center. 

5th round for me most likely. 

I don't know about the Lamb comparison.   Maybe in terms of receptions.  But if Pitts get the same receptions as Lamb, he'll have a much better fantasy season.  Lamb was an easy tackle once he got the ball.  I don't think Pitts will be easy to bring down.    Not to mention, he runs a quicker 40.   

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1 minute ago, K197040 said:

I don't know about the Lamb comparison.   Maybe in terms of receptions.  But if Pitts get the same receptions as Lamb, he'll have a much better fantasy season.  Lamb was an easy tackle once he got the ball.  I don't think Pitts will be easy to bring down.    Not to mention, he runs a quicker 40.   

I agree, I was only comping his potential usage, not necessarily production with that usage. 

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3 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

I think any team that the team that drafts him is going to want to cash in year 1 on his ridiculous receiving ability. I think we'll see him basically playing WR and therefore, not have to overcome the standard rookie growing pains of a typical TE. 

If Pitts goes to Atlanta I think CeeDee Lamb's rookie year is a great comp for potential usage in a crowded. talented lineup, specifically his time with Dak under center. 

5th round for me most likely. 

Pitts had 3 career games with over 100 yards in college. Lamb had more than double that his senior year.

I get he didn’t play much last season and looked dominant when he did but I’ll personally pump the breaks. I think top 5 is too damn high in real life and he’s going to go too high in fantasy. 

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

I don't know about the Lamb comparison.   Maybe in terms of receptions.  But if Pitts get the same receptions as Lamb, he'll have a much better fantasy season.  Lamb was an easy tackle once he got the ball.  I don't think Pitts will be easy to bring down.    Not to mention, he runs a quicker 40.   

Lol Pitts is not faster than Lamb.

All these 40 times are BS. They’re not official and are timed at the players own facilities. Everyone magically was way faster this year than ever before. In reality he’s probably closer to a 4.55-4.6 than a 4.44. Still impressive for his size but again, he’s not faster than Lamb.

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On 4/26/2021 at 5:24 PM, Boudewijn said:

...and Marques Colston.

I wasn't trolling (much) here. Colston was a success as a rookie TE because he was a WR.

Similarly, I don't think Pitts will be seen as (just) a TE. He can block, but not all of his blocks are that great, and I think any team drafting him will do that mainly because he has good hands on a big body, and because they want to use him as a receiver (eg a big slot, like Colston).

If a team with the right QB and coach can get him, he might even do well in his rookie year. More importantly, we may get another "why is he a TE/WR" thread which will drive people nutty.

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College TE to NFL TE seems to be one of the very most difficult transitions.  So few guys ever have big success in their first year.

I am going to let someone else overpay for his learning year.  Then I will swoop in, in 2022, and grab this post-hype sleeper.

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

College TE to NFL TE seems to be one of the very most difficult transitions.  So few guys ever have big success in their first year.

I am going to let someone else overpay for his learning year.  Then I will swoop in, in 2022, and grab this post-hype sleeper.

 

And you play in leagues where teams trade their last year rookies for cheaper because they didn't pan out in the first year? Especially at a position were everybody knows players need a year or two to adapt? This is a opinion I see very oft regarding Pitts and I'm pretty sure this is a case of "the wish is the father of the thought" (german saying I just translated word for word). Can't imagine this will happen in any serious league.

 

Edit: I just realised that you could have meant this in a redraft way. In that case, yes...good plan. For dynasty reason it seems very unlikely though.

Edited by thebadferret
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3 hours ago, thebadferret said:

"the wish is the father of the thought" (german saying I just translated word for word)

You stole that from the father of English literature ;)
 

Quote

Origin: This proverb is based on Shakespeare's King Henry IV Part 2 (1597):

Prince Henry (Harry):
I never thought to hear you speak again.

King Henry IV:
Thy wish was father, Harry, to that thought:
I stay too long by thee, I weary thee.

giphy.gif

 

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3 hours ago, thebadferret said:

This is a opinion I see very oft regarding Pitts and I'm pretty sure this is a case of "the wish is the father of the thought" (german saying I just translated word for word, which is originally from Shakespeer tranlated to german).

As @Boudewijn has corrected me...

my old literature teacher would torch me for that malheur. RIP Mr. Schneider

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@thebadferret

Exactly correct, I was talking redraft.  I should have clarified.  In dynasty Pitts is going to be selected and held on to for dear life, and in devy he has probably been on rosters for two years or more.

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Seems like everyone has him going to Atlanta.

If a rookie TE WAS ever to make a splash, playing for Arthur Smith in between Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley on a team with absolutely no defense and a questionable running game...this is it.

Truthfully I think it'll be a bigger boost for Ryan in fantasy than anyone.  At least this year.

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27 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Seems like everyone has him going to Atlanta.

If a rookie TE WAS ever to make a splash, playing for Arthur Smith in between Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley on a team with absolutely no defense and a questionable running game...this is it.

Truthfully I think it'll be a bigger boost for Ryan in fantasy than anyone.  At least this year.

Matt Ryan is going to have sneaky good redraft value if Julio isn't traded and the Falcons draft Pitts. 

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ESPN's Dianna Russini reports that "as of now," Florida TE Kyle Pitts would be the Falcons' selection at No. 4 overall. 

Per Russini, the Falcons have "taken calls from just about everyone," but that "there hasn't been an offer good enough to trade back." Russini reports they are "willing to keep listening." This would seem to be the Falcons begging for better offers for a spot that's the highest anyone could move up for on Thursday. Although a special talent, Pitts would be a luxury pick for a roster with massive holes on both sides of the ball. 

Apr 29, 2021, 1:22 PM ET
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On 4/26/2021 at 12:20 AM, Gohawks said:

Just look at the history of rookie TEs and it’ll tell you he will be way over drafted.

And I get the “he’s a “generational” player etc etc” argument but so were guys like Winslow, Ebron, and Hockenson.

The position has produced one 1,000 yard season and that was in 1961. Since the turn of the century only 2 have even broke 700 yards their rookie season. I’m sure the prospect hype will carry his ADP into like the 60-70 range and no damn way am I going to take the risk to see if he is going to break the trend. 

I agree with your mentality, in that historically rookie TEs have a very low success rate and he'll likely be over drafted, but using 1,000 yards as your baseline of success is ridiculous.  If I could guarantee you 1000 yards from a TE, you would draft them in the top 2 rounds.  

In 2017 Evan Engram was a top 5 TE in his rookie season, with 722 yards.

It feels like there is far more hype around Pitts and I'd argue the situation/offense is significantly better for TE production, so I can see hype pushing him to the 6th, but I'd be surprised.  I'm expecting 8th round by labor day.  Assuming Julio is still on the team, I can't foresee people drafting Pitts over Hunter Henry/Evan Engram, who are going in the 7th and 9th as of today.  Maybe he falls in a tier immediately following them, with Gronk where you draft name value and nostalgia vs rookie and hype.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I agree with your mentality, in that historically rookie TEs have a very low success rate and he'll likely be over drafted, but using 1,000 yards as your baseline of success is ridiculous.  If I could guarantee you 1000 yards from a TE, you would draft them in the top 2 rounds.  

In 2017 Evan Engram was a top 5 TE in his rookie season, with 722 yards.

It feels like there is far more hype around Pitts and I'd argue the situation/offense is significantly better for TE production, so I can see hype pushing him to the 6th, but I'd be surprised.  I'm expecting 8th round by labor day.  Assuming Julio is still on the team, I can't foresee people drafting Pitts over Hunter Henry/Evan Engram, who are going in the 7th and 9th as of today.  Maybe he falls in a tier immediately following them, with Gronk where you draft name value and nostalgia vs rookie and hype.

If Engram and Henry are going that high coming off bad seasons than I can see Pitts going in the 6th round.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I agree with your mentality, in that historically rookie TEs have a very low success rate and he'll likely be over drafted, but using 1,000 yards as your baseline of success is ridiculous.  If I could guarantee you 1000 yards from a TE, you would draft them in the top 2 rounds.  

In 2017 Evan Engram was a top 5 TE in his rookie season, with 722 yards.

It feels like there is far more hype around Pitts and I'd argue the situation/offense is significantly better for TE production, so I can see hype pushing him to the 6th, but I'd be surprised.  I'm expecting 8th round by labor day.  Assuming Julio is still on the team, I can't foresee people drafting Pitts over Hunter Henry/Evan Engram, who are going in the 7th and 9th as of today.  Maybe he falls in a tier immediately following them, with Gronk where you draft name value and nostalgia vs rookie and hype.

In my post I state that only 2 have over 700 yards in the 2000s. Engram is one of them.

I’m also not as sold on the Falcons as some others maybe. Being a third option is never going to be too easy. Engram ended up only having to compete with Shepard that year. The argument that it’ll open things up for him doesn’t really work for me as Julio and Ridley are likely to dominate the team in targets and Hurst and Gage aren’t bad themselves. After Julio and Ridley get their cut you are probably looking at 1,800-2,000 yards to go around.  Between Gage, Hurst, and the backfield I just don’t see Pitts making too much noise this year.  Maybe something like 45/600/5 which is more TE2 production.

Who knows maybe I’m wrong and he comes out and knocks if out the park but I’m not going to be the one to find out. Also, I think his hype will push him pretty high. 

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