Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Kyle Pitts 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Except he isn’t “waaaaaay” better. In fact, he’s very comparable to Vernon Davis.

Davis was actually faster (and probably by a good margin considering his 40 was legit). He was a freak prospect that was viewed as more of a WR and he did nothing until his 4th season in the NFL. He also only went two picks lower than Pitts. Winslow, Ebron, and Hockenson were all top 10 picks and viewed as extremely elite prospects that were viewed as game changers at the position and all 3 did nothing fantasy relevant their first years.

Pitts is the best TE prospect ever but let’s not act like he’s some next level unheard of thing at the position. He’s not. He’s not even that much better than Vernon Davis. 


Davis was an athlete who was raw and didn’t know how to play the game. He was pure straight line speed with crappy fluidity. Pitts is way more fluid, a significantly better route runner, and actually understands concepts and how to play the position at 20 years old. He’s also a good three inches taller than Davis and has the largest wingspan of any player in recorded recent history. Yes, coming out he is a lot better than Davis. Davis was a workout wonder whose stock soared because of it, Pitts is the total opposite.

Edited by killa3312
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Last year isn't really a fair assessment, because A: Julio was MIA for half the season B: Hurst isn't of the Pitts pedigree.  But, Austin Hooper in both 2019 and 2018 while Julio and Ridley were killing it.  Hooper was just meh in 2017 but that directly correlates to Matt Ryans worst season in a decade, where he went only 4100/20.  2016 ATL used a TE split.  2015 Jacob Tamme had an okay year with 59/657.  Then from 2013 and beyond, I don't think I need to use numbers to prove what Tony Gonzalez was accomplishing with Roddy White and Julio Jones as the top 2 WRs.

I'm not sure I follow the logic of saying 'too many mouths to feed' for an ATL offense that for 2 decades has basically had 2 stud WRs AND still produced a TE1 for fantasy purposes.  If Pitts is even half of what the hype says, he should be just fine.  I'm still not paying for him in his rookie season, but as long as the ATL defense continues to be swiss cheese and Matt Ryan continues to throw for 5k/30td then I have no concerns about the 'offense' preventing Pitts from succeeding, it will be due to the transition of a TE to the NFL.  The fact that Julio has never been a dominant end zone target, could bode well for a TD dependent season for Pitts, but I wouldn't draft him as a TE1, and agree that for THIS season, we're looking at TE2, but again, not because of the offense, competition, or mouths to feed theory.

I'm sorry but I just don't follow here. Prior to Ridley, their WR2 was Sanu all the way back to 2016. In 2015 it was a beyond washed Roddy White and in 2014 it was a somewhat washed Roddy White. In 2013 their WR1 ended up being Harry Douglas. You have to go all the way back to 2012 when they had two legit WRs in a Roddy White that still had it and Julio who was breaking out.

You can actually make a very good argument that their current #3 (Gage) is better than any #2 they've had dating back to 2012. You then factor in Hurst who was a first round pick himself and yeah I would say it is a pretty packed weapons core. They have two legit WR1s, a WR3 that very well can be a WR2, and a TE that is solid in his own right BEFORE you even factor in Pitts. So in my opinion the transition and mouths to feed arguments both go against him for this season. Again, I think he will have a good career but it won't be this year. 

21 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Miller was actually TE11 in his rookie season and that was the pre-elite Big Ben years. Yeah Eifert did nothing.

I think Pitts is an unprecedent situation for a rookie TE. He's the highest drafted TE by a significant margin, so he should be expected to see usage from the start. Good QB, team with the highest number of pass attempts. I'll gladly take him with a 9th/10th round pick.

Highest drafted by a significant margin this year or ever? This year sure but that doesn't mean much if ever no he is not. There have been 14 TEs taken top 10 including 1 at 5 and 2 at 6. If you just want to go since 2000 it's 2 taken at 6 and 4 in the top 10.

I don't get where this idea that Pitts is in some insane uncharted territory comes from. It's not like a FB going top 10. TEs going this high doesn't happen often but it does happen. You can literally go back two years to find a top 10 TE pick. You can even find mocks with Hockenson going as high as 7 and not just in one mock draft either. Again Pitts is probably the best TE prospect ever but first off, it's not my much (Davis is damn close) and second off it's not unheard of for TEs to go very high. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, killa3312 said:


Davis was an athlete who was raw and didn’t know how to play the game. He was pure straight line speed with crappy fluidity. Pitts is way more fluid, a significantly better route runner, and actually understands concepts and how to play the position at 20 years old. He’s also a good three inches taller than Davis and has the largest wingspan of any player in recorded recent history. Yes, coming out he is a lot better than Davis. Davis was a workout wonder whose stock soared because of it, Pitts is the total opposite.

To add to your point keep in mind Pitts is coming into a very different NFL than Davis was. That being said I think he's gold in a dynasty league but I'd be hesitant to grab him for what it's going to cost in a redraft given how TEs historically have struggled in their first season in the league. He's a generational talent but I don't know if he can break that pattern. 

5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

June 2nd, it goes from a 200k cap loss to a 15 million dollar cap savings, which is why they'd do it.

Given Jones's hero status in Atlanta, I doubt they make any kind of move, official or otherwise, until at least then.

I don't think Atlanta skipped over drafting their QB of the future with the #4 pick to add another offensive weapon for their current, aging qb just so they can turn around and offload their best WR to save some cash for the future. Grabbing Pitts feels like a win-now or at least win-soon move. Moving Julio to clear cap space for the future doesn't match up with that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, yossarian said:

I don't think Atlanta skipped over drafting their QB of the future with the #4 pick to add another offensive weapon for their current, aging qb just so they can turn around and offload their best WR to save some cash for the future. Grabbing Pitts feels like a win-now or at least win-soon move. Moving Julio to clear cap space for the future doesn't match up with that. 

To clarify, I don't think cutting or trading Julio is likely.  However just because they drafted Pitts doesn't mean he was solely a pick to go all in on Matt Ryan.  I think they see him as a receiving weapon to pair with Ridley for the next decade, including for the next QB after Ryan to help provide a softer transition for that QB (the Mahomes model, if you will).

Eventually, probably sooner rather than later, the transition to a post Ryan/Jones team is going to happen.  You're talking about a 36 year old QB and a 32 year old receiver, law of averages tells us that we're near the end, Smith and Fontenot understand that.

Pitts is a part of that.  They just saw him as a better player than Justin Fields.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I think you're understating the seasons Henry and Engram had last year.  If Pitts managed what either of them did last year, it would be a huge success for him.
Henry missed 2 games and still finished as a top 12 TE, averaging double digit points per game.
Evan Engram finished only 14th overall, but that was due to a fluke TD outlier (1) in my opinion.  This is a bit dependent on the progression of Danny Dimes but Barkley coming back will significantly alter the entire offense and the coverage that Engram sees inside the 5.  He finished with the 4th most targets, 5th most receptions, 8th in receiving yards, but T51st in Touchdowns.  One of these is a statistical outlier and also keep in mind, that was the worst season of his career, on a per-game basis, including his rookie season.  Pitts going before Engram would be a mistake, and I'll just say it now, Engram is likely to be a very nice/sneaky value pick on draft day, because I think your state of mind is going to be the general consensus, and I will likely be the minority.  But I have no plans to try and convince the world to raise his ADP :)

I owned Henry last year.. He's was the definition of average which isnt bad considering how awful TE was last season. He was just barely above waiver wire replacement I think, wouldnt kill you with a 1 for 8 game but he also had no chance of winning you a week. I was disappointed that he couldnt do better considering Herbert had the best season ever for a rookie QB and Ekeler missing a good chunk of the season. 

Engram is a guy I dont think I'll ever draft again. He's had one great year, his rookie season where there was no competition for targets, then he gets hurt the next two. Last season he actually stayed healthy and got a ton of targets and did nothing with them. Yeah better TD luck would have helped but his final statline wouldnt have looked much better than journeyman former QB Logan Thomas. I think guys like Fant, Jonnu and Irv Smith would kill to have a 110 target season. Now with Barkley healthy, Golladay and Toney in the mix, Shepard still there, he's not getting 110 again. Im not banking on him being an efficient receiver.

Both these guys are the types you should be taking Pitts over. Injury prone, limited upside, short of an Ebron TD spike, they'll be the same boring TE8-15 they've always been.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They aren't picking up Hurst's 5th year option.

I think that's more news for dynasty or 2022 redrafts.  BUT, if they did cut him or find a trading partner they would save 2 million against the cap post June 1, so it's possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

What separates Pitts from guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, etc. They were hyped nearly as much and have all been varying degrees of mediocre in the NFL. 

He’s a better prospect. That being said, he’s not THAT much better like some people would have you think.

Howard fan 4.51 with pretty much exact same measurables as Pitts. Considering his was official not hand timed and hand timed is like a tenth if not more slower he may actually be faster than Pitts. Engram is same weight but shorter but he ran an absurd 4.42.

Thing is, looking at weight and height isn’t a be all judge of actual size and Pitts just looks different than these guys. There is a reason he went 4th and one being he showed incredible hands. Again though, it’s not by some gap that makes him an unheard of phenom at the position. Guys you mention are pretty comparable to him. TE (pass catchers in general) is a tough transition from college to the NFL. It’s even tougher for these pass catching TEs. 

Edited by Gohawks
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
On 5/4/2021 at 1:03 AM, BGDDYKWL said:

What separates Pitts from guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, etc. They were hyped nearly as much and have all been varying degrees of mediocre in the NFL. 

I dont recall any of those 3 being considered a generational talent.

One of the most impressive things about Pitts for me is his age. He doesnt turn 21 until October. Thats insane.

Edited by Evincar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, KennyWoo said:

Ebron etc were not hyped like Pitts.  The hype on Pitts is like DOGE - to the Moon.  Dynasty 1.01 in a lot of spots.

Hype isn’t indicative of actual value that’s the problem.

Dynasty is different than redraft. Julio is on his last legs and Pitts is still extremely young. Redraft is the issue here. He’s going to likely go mid TE1 range in a lot of leagues due to the hype when in reality he very likely isn’t even going to put up TE1 numbers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

Ebron etc were not hyped like Pitts.  The hype on Pitts is like DOGE - to the Moon.  Dynasty 1.01 in a lot of spots.

Really? I have a hard time taking a TE 1.01 in this year's rookie class in dynasty. The hype is to the moon, but still...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, trilly said:

Given how low the bar is for TE1 numbers, I think Pitts will wind up no worse than a mid-TE1.

There was almost little difference between TE8 and TE16. Granted 2020 was really bad for TEs especially compared to 2019.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Evincar said:

There was almost little difference between TE8 and TE16. Granted 2020 was really bad for TEs especially compared to 2019.

It’s absurd how much of a cheat code Kelce was. I mean Waller was closeish but after that no one was even close to sniffing him. He had damn near double the points of 3rd place. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Evincar said:

There was almost little difference between TE8 and TE16. Granted 2020 was really bad for TEs especially compared to 2019.

That's the thing. If you are taking Pitts top half of the first in a rookie draft (non TE premium) you NEED him to be elite. Being Mike Gesicki or Hunter Henry isn't good enough because the gap between them and Hayden Hurst/Jonnu Smith/etc is miniscule

Jamarr Chase can still miss his high end projection and be a useful, valuable player as a WR2 and Amari Cooper type. Pitts cannot--he has to be elite or his value is next to nothing. Sure he might be startable on your roster but Gerald Everett who you got for free of waivers could have been startable too. No one is paying top dollar in the trade market for TE 6-8 either

So if you are drafting him know his margin for error is nothing compared to an RB/WR or QB in SF

Edited by mocha4313
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

That's the thing. If you are taking Pitts top half of the first in a rookie draft (non TE premium) you NEED him to be elite. Being Mike Gesicki or Hunter Henry isn't good enough because the gap between them and Hayden Hurst/Jonnu Smith/etc is miniscule

Jamarr Chase can still miss his high end projection and be a useful, valuable player as a WR2 and Amari Cooper type. Pitts cannot--he has to be elite or his value is next to nothing. Sure he might be startable on your roster but Gerald Everett who you got for free of waivers could have been startable too. No one is paying top dollar in the trade market for TE 6-8 either

So if you are drafting him know his margin for error is nothing compared to an RB/WR or QB in SF

It's easy, there are two type of teams that should be drafting Pitts early in Rookie Drafts:

Rebuilding teams who don't care that he doesn't is an elite option this year (under the premise he is in the future of corse)
Contenders that are stacked and don't need him this year either.

If you only have one startable RB on your dynasty team and you take Pitts over a top RB, well yeah....that's a weird plan.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
On 5/4/2021 at 1:03 AM, BGDDYKWL said:

What separates Pitts from guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, etc. They were hyped nearly as much and have all been varying degrees of mediocre in the NFL. 

I think a better question would be what separates Pitts from Mike Evans or Darren Waller. 

Edited by PrestigeWW
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/7/2021 at 2:49 AM, mocha4313 said:

That's the thing. If you are taking Pitts top half of the first in a rookie draft (non TE premium) you NEED him to be elite. Being Mike Gesicki or Hunter Henry isn't good enough because the gap between them and Hayden Hurst/Jonnu Smith/etc is miniscule

Jamarr Chase can still miss his high end projection and be a useful, valuable player as a WR2 and Amari Cooper type. Pitts cannot--he has to be elite or his value is next to nothing. Sure he might be startable on your roster but Gerald Everett who you got for free of waivers could have been startable too. No one is paying top dollar in the trade market for TE 6-8 either

So if you are drafting him know his margin for error is nothing compared to an RB/WR or QB in SF

In non TE/1 QB rookie drafts I definitely wouldnt take him over a Chase, Harris or Etienne. I do believe he's worth taking as high as 4th because quite honestly this draft class looks weak and Pitts is one of the true unicorns (along with Chase and Lawrence) of the class.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that we’re finding ways to talk down Pitts when we shouldn’t be.

Look at the Falcons situation. Julio is not only on the decline, but also likely gone soon, possibly this year. They need a replacement for him, and instead of taking super-stud, can’t miss,  Ja’Marr Chase they took Kyle Pitts. The dude is special. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

 Julio is not only on the decline

Do you mean injuries or performance?

In 2020 he was close to his normal production, despite battling the hammy all season.  Yards per game were down, but yards per target was the highest of his entire career.  He didn't look like a player who had lost even half a step.

I do agree that those types of injuries (and the slow recoveries) are much more likely due to his age.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...