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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Nap Time said:

Do you mean injuries or performance?

In 2020 he was close to his normal production, despite battling the hammy all season.  Yards per game were down, but yards per target was the highest of his entire career.  He didn't look like a player who had lost even half a step.

I do agree that those types of injuries (and the slow recoveries) are much more likely due to his age.

 

 

It's completely based on his age. I think his body is going to wear down and his performance/productivity will be effected.

And to clarify I'm not anticipating Julio to fall off the map this year. I was only using that to support the fact that Atlanta has been trying to, and likely will, move on from Julio in the near future. 

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This is my line of thinking as well. He wasn’t drafted to play the role of a traditional tight end. He will likely never be asked to be an in-line blocker. And the Falcons drafted him over Ja’Marr Cha

People get caught in the hype all the time. The unknown is so appealing for some reason. I’ve said it here before but fantasy football has so many damn variables that all you can do is try and sw

Gutsy calls lead to championships.  Pitts will be in position to do historic things with this QB, coaching staff, and surrounding skill position players. No Julio Jones is huge. Enjoy the di

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On 5/9/2021 at 7:49 AM, P@ckersFan said:

I think that we’re finding ways to talk down Pitts when we shouldn’t be.

Look at the Falcons situation. Julio is not only on the decline, but also likely gone soon, possibly this year. They need a replacement for him, and instead of taking super-stud, can’t miss,  Ja’Marr Chase they took Kyle Pitts. The dude is special. 

in dynasty, i suppose the hype is acceptable. but oj howard was hyped pretty intensely and look how that turned out.

On 5/7/2021 at 11:15 AM, PrestigeWW said:

I think a better question would be what separates Pitts from Mike Evans or Darren Waller. 

in redraft, no way, no pitts. there's only been one rookie TE ever to score over 1000 yards -- mike ditka in 1961. re-drafters looking for a positional advantage and passing on a solid WR or RB are making a mistake. best-case scenario for pitts is evan engram 2017 (best rookie TE performance in past 19 years, 6 best rookie TE performance all-time) --- 64 / 722 / 6 TDs. and engram had zero competition for targets, whereas pitts will have sizeable aggressive  competition.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

in dynasty, i suppose the hype is acceptable. but oj howard was hyped pretty intensely and look how that turned out.

in redraft, no way, no pitts. there's only been one rookie TE ever to score over 1000 yards -- mike ditka in 1961. re-drafters looking for a positional advantage and passing on a solid WR or RB are making a mistake. best-case scenario for pitts is evan engram 2017 (best rookie TE performance in past 19 years, 6 best rookie TE performance all-time) --- 64 / 722 / 6 TDs. and engram had zero competition for targets, whereas pitts will have sizeable aggressive  competition.

 

 

Marques Colston had over 1000 yards as a rookie.

And I understand the logic if you think that Kyle Pitts is going to be tasked with a lot of traditional TE work, which often creates lag for rookie TE’s, but I don’t think be will.

He’s going to step in right out the gate as one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league. I dont think 70/900/9 isn’t beyond reason and would make him the 3rd or 4th best tight end in fantasy.  He was on 13 game pace for 1250 yards and 19/20 tds last year. He could go supernova.
 

My comp for him again is CeeDee Lamb who before Dak got hurt was headed towards a year 1 breakout even in a crowded situation.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

in dynasty, i suppose the hype is acceptable. but oj howard was hyped pretty intensely and look how that turned out.

in redraft, no way, no pitts. there's only been one rookie TE ever to score over 1000 yards -- mike ditka in 1961. re-drafters looking for a positional advantage and passing on a solid WR or RB are making a mistake. best-case scenario for pitts is evan engram 2017 (best rookie TE performance in past 19 years, 6 best rookie TE performance all-time) --- 64 / 722 / 6 TDs. and engram had zero competition for targets, whereas pitts will have sizeable aggressive  competition.

 

 

I dont get the Howard comparisons. He was talented but couldnt stay healthy. He was more of a traditional TE where as Pitts wont block much if it all. Pitts drafted 4th overall vs 19th for Howard. Pitts will be 21 in his rookie season where as Howard was 23.

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31 minutes ago, Evincar said:

I dont get the Howard comparisons. He was talented but couldnt stay healthy. He was more of a traditional TE where as Pitts wont block much if it all. Pitts drafted 4th overall vs 19th for Howard. Pitts will be 21 in his rookie season where as Howard was 23.

Howard was not a traditional TE. Not even close. He was viewed as a decent blocker but not elite (like Pitts). He was however viewed as a matchup nightmare. Here is his scouting profile from Walterfootball:

Strengths: 

  • Fast 
  • Rare speed 
  • Supreme receiving tight end 
  • Mismatch nightmare 
  • Impressive yards-after-the-catch skills for a tight end 
  • Extremely athletic 
  • Generally sure-handed
  • Quick release off the line 
  • Superb body control 
  • Great catch radius 
  • Leaping ability 
  • Good route-running 
  • Improved blocker 
  • Phenomenal middle-seam tight end 
  • Too fast for linebackers 
  • Too big for safeties 
  • Red-zone weapon 
  • Three-down mismatch tight end 
  • Very versatile 
  • Athletic enough to play h-back 
  • Upside 
  • Uses size to make receptions downfield 
  • Adept at finding the soft spot in zone 
  • Works the middle seam well 
  • Tracks the ball well 
  • Quality run blocker 
  • Decent feet in pass protection 
  • Can sustain his blocks 
  • Hits blocks on the second level 
  • 10-15 year starter if he stays healthy 
  • Experienced
  • Effective against good competition 
  • Strong 
  • Deceptive quickness, athleticism 
  • Quality hands 
  • Durable 
  • Ready to play immediately

I’d venture to guess if someone handed you this and told you what TE this is you’d probably say Pitts. 

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Sources from all seven teams agrred Pitts is definitely worth a top-10 pick and it would not be a reach to take him in the top-five choice. They all said Pitts graded out higher than other recent top-20 tight end prospects like T.J. Hockenson, Eric Ebron and O.J. Howard. Considering there are teams that have Pitts as their second-highest graded player, he has a real shot at going in the top five, and it sounds unlikely that he will get out of the top 10.

Player Comparison: Travis Kelce/Calvin Johnson. As the team sources said above, they feel Pitts could be an elite receiving tight end like Kelce or Gonzalez. If Pitts moves to wide receiver, they feel he could be a poor man's Calvin Johnson.

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021KPitts.php

Walterfootball can be useful at times but it seems they give like 20-30 strengths for some players and often they use the same one multiple times.

No joke but they actually use just the word "upside" as a strength for Pitts, Chase and Lawrence. I mean would hope the majority of top prospects would naturally have upside regardless... 

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Jeremy Shockey went for 74-894-2 as a rookie.

It wouldn't surprise me if Pitts is a red zone monster right out of the gate and puts up Julius Thomas numbers - 700 yds / 12 TD.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/11/2021 at 1:18 AM, Gohawks said:

Howard was not a traditional TE. Not even close. He was viewed as a decent blocker but not elite (like Pitts). He was however viewed as a matchup nightmare. Here is his scouting profile from Walterfootball:

Strengths: 

  • Fast 
  • Rare speed 
  • Supreme receiving tight end 
  • Mismatch nightmare 
  • Impressive yards-after-the-catch skills for a tight end 
  • Extremely athletic 
  • Generally sure-handed
  • Quick release off the line 
  • Superb body control 
  • Great catch radius 
  • Leaping ability 
  • Good route-running 
  • Improved blocker 
  • Phenomenal middle-seam tight end 
  • Too fast for linebackers 
  • Too big for safeties 
  • Red-zone weapon 
  • Three-down mismatch tight end 
  • Very versatile 
  • Athletic enough to play h-back 
  • Upside 
  • Uses size to make receptions downfield 
  • Adept at finding the soft spot in zone 
  • Works the middle seam well 
  • Tracks the ball well 
  • Quality run blocker 
  • Decent feet in pass protection 
  • Can sustain his blocks 
  • Hits blocks on the second level 
  • 10-15 year starter if he stays healthy 
  • Experienced
  • Effective against good competition 
  • Strong 
  • Deceptive quickness, athleticism 
  • Quality hands 
  • Durable 
  • Ready to play immediately

I’d venture to guess if someone handed you this and told you what TE this is you’d probably say Pitts. 

Not putting words in your mouth. 

The big difference between Pitts and Howard is the production. Howard was all theory coming out of college. In his best seasons he averaged 600 yards and 2.5 TDS. over 13-14 games. That's 44 yards and less than a fifth of a touchdown per game. He basically had 2 good games in his entire college career, they just both happened to be in national championships (if you remove the national championship game from his junior year his stats were 33/394/0). 

Pitts on the other hand just had a season where he had 97 yards and 1.5 TDs per game.  We've seen the man ball out. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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58 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

Not putting words in your mouth. 

The big difference between Pitts and Howard is the production. Howard was all theory coming out of college. In his best seasons he averaged 600 yards and 2.5 TDS. over 13-14 games. That's 44 yards and less than a fifth of a touchdown per game. He basically had 2 good games in his entire college career, they just both happened to be in national championships (if you remove the national championship game from his junior year his stats were 33/394/0). 

Pitts on the other hand just had a season where he had 97 yards and 1.5 TDs per game.  We've seen the man ball out. 

Of course there’s a difference. I’m not arguing they’re the same or should’ve been drafted in the same range. Pitts is obviously better. He’s bigger, a better route runner, and has better hands all while being younger at the time of their drafts.

My point is that Pitts isn’t THAT far ahead of some of these other TEs coming out of college. There’s been freak athletes at the position abs guys that were viewed as primary pass catchers. They all didn’t do anything their first year. Is Pitts the best out of the bunch? Of course. However, I’m not going to be the one to find out if he’s the one breaking the trend in redraft. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

My point is that Pitts isn’t THAT far ahead of some of these other TEs coming out of college.

I'd say that Pitts' proof of concept via on-field production is light years ahead of where Kelce, Hernandez, Gesicki, Hockenson and especially OJ Howard's were. 

He was on 70/1250/20 pace for 13 games last year. 

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Posted (edited)

The other thing to consider here is that Pitts could end up with a stat-line that doesn't scream "Monster Season," but if he follows the trend of most successful rookies his breakout will come at the 2nd half of the season. 

Look at a guy like Brandon Aiyuk. He finished the season at 60/748/5. That's nothing spectacular. But he started slow. Once he gained momentum week 7 he started racking up 6-7 catches, 90+ yards and more often than not a touchdown every week he was on the field. Same with Deebo and AJ Brown their rookie years. 

If Pitts finishes the season at 65/850/8 it's likely that there are multiple 5/100/1 games in the back half of the season that are going to win you weeks.

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1 hour ago, P@ckersFan said:

The other thing to consider here is that Pitts could end up with a stat-line that doesn't scream "Monster Season," but if he follows the trend of most successful rookies his breakout will come at the 2nd half of the season. 

Look at a guy like Brandon Aiyuk. He finished the season at 60/748/5. That's nothing spectacular. But he started slow. Once he gained momentum week 7 he started racking up 6-7 catches, 90+ yards and more often than not a touchdown every week he was on the field. Same with Deebo and AJ Brown their rookie years. 

If Pitts finishes the season at 65/850/8 it's likely that there are multiple 5/100/1 games in the back half of the season that are going to win you weeks.

Yeah but Aiyuk was more or less free last year (or if he was drafted he was taken late). You're looking at a mid-round pick for Pitts and that cost will probably increase as we approach draft season.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

I'd say that Pitts' proof of concept via on-field production is light years ahead of where Kelce, Hernandez, Gesicki, Hockenson and especially OJ Howard's were. 

He was on 70/1250/20 pace for 13 games last year. 

That’s the thing, Pitts has both the statistical dominance and the measurable and that’s what makes him an amazing prospect, not to mention he is only 20 years old! His ceiling is limitless as a player.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, MingusDew said:

Yeah but Aiyuk was more or less free last year (or if he was drafted he was taken late). You're looking at a mid-round pick for Pitts and that cost will probably increase as we approach draft season.

You're paying a premium for a TE designation. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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Posted (edited)

I’m honestly buying the hype, I think Arthur Smith is going to be a great coach for Atlanta and was previously a TE coach. Pitts has Matt Ryan throwing him the ball and there are too many other weapons for him to see that many double teams.

History says rookie te’s struggle, but I think they are going to use him a lot in the slot also. If I miss out on Kittle and Waller, he’s probably going to be my target in the 4th-5th round.

Obviously long way to go for analysis during training camp, but there is a lot to like here.

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On 5/11/2021 at 9:23 PM, Nap Time said:

Jeremy Shockey went for 74-894-2 as a rookie.

It wouldn't surprise me if Pitts is a red zone monster right out of the gate and puts up Julius Thomas numbers - 700 yds / 12 TD.

Apples to oranges comparison, julius had a hof qb in his peak throwing to him, julius career path explained he was 100000000% on a peak manning, even with an average manning not happening, or the dolphins

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Apples to oranges comparison, julius had a hof qb in his peak throwing to him, julius career path explained he was 100000000% on a peak manning, even with an average manning not happening, or the dolphins

This post reeks of stat-reading.

Manning was not even close to his peak at Denver.  He was almost completely washed up due to the neck injury and could barely throw the ball.

My recollection is that Eric Berry couldn't cover Julius Thomas.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Nap Time said:

This post reeks of stat-reading.

Manning was not even close to his peak at Denver.  He was almost completely washed up due to the neck injury and could barely throw the ball.

My recollection is that Eric Berry couldn't cover Julius Thomas.

 

 

Wait, 2013 Peyton was washed up and not peaking?! 5500 yards and 55 TDs, washed up af. Or only 2015 stats count?

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11 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Wait, 2013 Peyton was washed up and not peaking?!

Yes.  He had arguably the worst arm in the NFL in 2013.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Nap Time said:

Yes.  He had arguably the worst arm in the NFL in 2013.

"arguably the worst arm in the nfl in 2013" would be a losing argument: this was a year of mike glennon (bucs), geno smith (nyj), chad henne (jax), jay cutler, matt schaub (hou), ej manuel (buf), matt cassel (min)...

peyton manning's "worst arm in the NFL" year was 2015, not 2013, and 2013 was a better fantasy performance than his great 2004 season. @hoppychokes is right, as 2013's 5577 yards / 55 TDs / 10 INTs was a monumental in-your-face statement by manning, and his 450/659 was a career best passing percentage at 68% (and 3rd best QB % for the season). and he looked great.

2014 started to show wear and tear when we examine some poorer choices, and it was 2015 when manning rotted as a QB (the year denver's defense won super bowl 50 vs cam newton and the panthers juggernaut).

BBJvA-.gif

 

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Manning had 2 bad seasons in his career. His rookie season and his final season (where he won a SB, thanks Von) 

As far as Pitts goes i want him on my team but don't draft TE's early and feel he's going to be drafted in the top 6 rnds, if he slips to Rnd 9-10 maybe i'd consider it. 

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If the falcons came out and said they planned on using Pitts like a WR or a slot guy I might be able to get behind the hype but if he is going to play TE and block like jonnu smith has to then I don’t think there is anyway you can expect much of him in redraft leagues this year. And odds are your paying too high for him in dynasty too. 
 

At his current ADP you’re expecting him to be the next Travis kelce. if you’re into analytics then there’s almost no way to justify spending that price tag on him. The odds of getting a once in a generation producer like kelce is just too rare. The odds are against you. 
 

If your going off game film or talent then it’s a shot in the dark just like every other big athletic TE that comes along every year. Engram, fant, Howard, eifert, pettigrew, Ebron. But I will say he is outrageously athletic, great qb, offensive minded coach, bad defense, good WRs to keep focus off him.. perfect situation. 

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Let's say Julio gets traded, how soon is too soon for Pitts?  Are you taking the dive in rounds 6-7?  Do you think he'll go even sooner than that?

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10 minutes ago, ZappB said:

Let's say Julio gets traded, how soon is too soon for Pitts?  Are you taking the dive in rounds 6-7?  Do you think he'll go even sooner than that?

Without getting into the merits of it, I think if Julio gets dealt he goes TE4 after the big three of Kelce, Waller, and Kittle.

While I'm loathe to hitch my wagon to a rookie TE, I don't see him making it out of round 5 in PPR drafts. 

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