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Kyle Pitts 2021 Outlook


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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ZappB said:

Let's say Julio gets traded, how soon is too soon for Pitts?  Are you taking the dive in rounds 6-7?  Do you think he'll go even sooner than that?

100%, as early as maybe 4-5

Edited by P@ckersFan
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11 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

3.11 in my draft tonight...

People get caught in the hype all the time. The unknown is so appealing for some reason.

I’ve said it here before but fantasy football has so many damn variables that all you can do is try and swing as many as you can in your favor. Pitts of course has things going for him (talent, good offense, etc). However, he has a lot more going against him.

Drafting him in the 4th is drafting him as a top 5 TE (likely 4th overall). Basically saying he will have the best rookie TE season of all time. Not saying it’s not possible but drafting him with the expectation of him being the best rookie TE ever seems funny to me. Even true generational prospects like Barkley and Megatron weren’t drafted anywhere near that expectation and it would’ve been absurd to draft them there. Somehow though Pitts is going to do it. Again, maybe and some TE eventually has to have a great rookie season but spending a 3rd-4th round pick to find out seems crazy to me. 

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TE with the best chance to be the next Kelce, Waller, sometimes Kittle. The elite of the elite TEs that command approximately 8 targets per game. TE’s who produce WR1 numbers are unicorns and Pitts has that potential.

as a TE you need to be in the right situation to achieve elite fantasy status. Kelce with Mahomes and Andy Reid. Waller with Gruden and Carr. Kittle has been up and down based on QB play but he commands those approximately 8 targets per game. Pitts without Julio in ATL will become the Alpha in the Falcons offense. Ridley will still be good but won’t be suprised to see Pitts leading the team in receiving by year 2.

 

that being said not many rookie TEs reach 1,000 yards. In redraft I wouldn’t reach too high for him but in dynasty I’d take him at 4

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12 hours ago, Nap Time said:

Ditka's rookie year:

14 games

56 receptions

1076 yards

19.2 yards/reception

12 TDs

Pitts will have those numbers by Thanksgiving.

       

Makes sense to use an analogy to something that last happened 60 years ago. I’ll take the under.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:


20 yards per reception? From a rookie TE? 
 

That’s insane.

1960 so who cares? Milkmen probably couldn't tackle.

Edited by Gohawks
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On 5/22/2021 at 2:59 PM, Nap Time said:

This post reeks of stat-reading.

Manning was not even close to his peak at Denver.  He was almost completely washed up due to the neck injury and could barely throw the ball.

My recollection is that Eric Berry couldn't cover Julius Thomas.

 

 

Broke the single season yard and touchdown total that year, thats not peak?

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On 5/24/2021 at 11:22 PM, Gohawks said:

People get caught in the hype all the time. The unknown is so appealing for some reason.

Drafting him in the 4th is drafting him as a top 5 TE (likely 4th overall). Basically saying he will have the best rookie TE season of all time. Not saying it’s not possible but drafting him with the expectation of him being the best rookie TE ever seems funny to me.

It really depends how they use Pitts.  With Julio Jones leaving, it's possible a lot of targets are there for him.   Really all it comes down to is opportunities and if they're going to use him more like a WR.  If he's going to get 100-120 targets, coming close to the TE rookie record (meaningless) is quite possible. 

 

For a modern comparison, look at Evan Engram his rookie year and think about if he started all 16 games with a better QB and on a better offense.

 

I'd agree that the fourth round would be early in redraft leagues, but on Fantasy Football Calculator he's going around pick 100 (about round 9-10).  I'd rather get him around pick 100 than some of the other TE's going earlier.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/players/kyle-pitts

 

If you're getting him that late, he's a good pick with the information we have right now.  

 

Quote

Even true generational prospects like Barkley and Megatron weren’t drafted anywhere near that expectation.

 

Saquon was getting drafted around pick 1.07, sometimes higher in his rookie year and he was worth it.  Tight ends are a whole different ballgame, and Saquon was a much better RB prospect than Pitts is at TE and positional scarcity and volume at RB makes them much more valuable.  

 

Long story short, I'd gladly take Pitts at pick 100 today...I wouldn't even think about it around pick 40-50.  Right now I wouldn't consider any TE that early other than Kelce.

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:Football Calculator he's going around pick 100 (about round 9-10).  I'd rather get him around pick 100 than some of the other TE's going earlier.

Long story short, I'd gladly take Pitts at pick 100 today...I wouldn't even think about it around pick 40-50.  Right now I wouldn't consider any TE that early other than Kelce.

 

 

 

Ohh ya pick 100 is a no brainer. Why not take a shot on him. This whole time people were making. It sound like his ADP was in the early 4th 

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It's still a bit early to focus too much on ADP.  Just for sake of comparison, FantasyPros' consensus rankings has Pitts as TE 6/7 around pick 70-75ish depending on scoring setting.  I'm sure once August rolls around Pitts' ADP will be below 100.  

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Posted (edited)

His APD will stay up and he'll get some more hype once Julio gets traded.  I believe someone will take him in round 4 or 5 which are critical rounds. If he falls beyond that, i'll have to think about it.  But I don't think drafting him at his ceiling is a smart pick, so I won't be owning shares this year. 

Edited by nk2333
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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm probably not going to want to pay to find out based on where I expect his ADP to be on draft day, but I think 80% of Jimmy Graham's first full season as a starter is a decent comp for Pitts barring injury.

Graham went 99/1310/11, so I think 80/1050/8 is not out of the question.

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  • 4 weeks later...
13 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

What is everyone's plan at the moment?  ESPN he is ranked I think 5th overall at TE.  I will consider him in the 5th or 6th.

It's a gutsy draft call at that ADP.    But he could easily be the #2 target for the Falcons.   I'm looking at him as providing WR3 output as a floor.    So it really depends on how my draft has gone to that point.    I think he does have the same upside as Waller if they end up using him the same way.   But it's definitely risky.

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