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Pros for Nick Chubb
--#1 RB per PFF rankings since 2018 (finished #1 in 2018, #1 in 2019, #4 in 2020).
--#7 RB in PPG for PPR leagues; #4 RB in PPG for Standard leagues (amongst RB's who played at least 4 games).
--In 2020, rushed for over 1000 yards in just 12 games (really, 11 games and a quarter).
--Rushed for 5+ YPC in all three of his NFL seasons.
--Browns have shown they like to emphasize the run in general.
--Browns offensive line was the #1 ranked offensive line across the board...and as of now, returns intact for 2021.

Cons for Nick Chubb
--Doesn't catch a lot of passes.
--Has Kareem Hunt taking away some touches.

How do you all feel about Chubb in 2021? For me, I'd probably rank him at either #6 or #7 right now (behind CMC, Henry, Cook, Saquon, Kamara, and possibly A.Jones).
 

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i snagged Hunt in the 5th last year and was ecstatic - especially after owning Chubb in '19 and watching KH sink the back end of the season for ol' Nick.   and he was just one Chubb injury away f

Chubb seems more like a King Henry than a Zeke to me. 

ProFootballTalk: Reports: Browns, Nick Chubb reach agreement on extension - ProFootballTalk. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/07/31/reports-browns-nick-chubb-reach-agreement-on-extensio

Sort of like Henry in that he's a terrific pure runner (maybe the best in the league) that isn't used in the passing game. Unlike Henry he has Hunt nipping at his heels (although he really only eats into the passing and third down work).

RB7 feels right. Aaron Jones squeaks ahead with Williams leaving (although he has some usage concerns of his own).

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My main concern with Chubb is Hunt is a good GL back. He actually had as much TDs as Chubb last year from carries inside the 5 on 2 less carries.

He's a total stud but it worries me to draft a guy in the top 10 that isn't going to get 3rd down work AND is likely going to get a sizeable chunk of his GL carries stolen. No thanks not for me. I'm not going to deny his talent or even his stats last year but i'm not going to draft a 2 down back in the top 10 that is also not the definitive GL back. I see too much 12/60/0 & 1/5/0 type games.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

My main concern with Chubb is Hunt is a good GL back. He actually had as much TDs as Chubb last year from carries inside the 5 on 2 less carries.

He's a total stud but it worries me to draft a guy in the top 10 that isn't going to get 3rd down work AND is likely going to get a sizeable chunk of his GL carries stolen. No thanks not for me. I'm not going to deny his talent or even his stats last year but i'm not going to draft a 2 down back in the top 10 that is also not the definitive GL back. I see too much 12/60/0 & 1/5/0 type games.

Devil's advocate point is that Chubb has had very few of those types of games in his career. Since becoming the starter in 2018, he's played 38 games. Below are his 10 worst games since that point:

2018 Week 8: 18-65-0; 2-10-0 (a game with 20 touches and 75 yards)
2018 Week 17: 9-24-0; 2--4-0 (terrible game in Week 17 and Week 17 should not be played by anyone :))
2019 Week 1: 17-75-0; 3-10-0 (a game with 20 touches and 85 yards)
2019 Week 9: 20-65-0; 4-26-0 (a game with 24 touches and 91 yards)
2019 Week 11: 27-92-0; 0-0-0 (a game with 27 touches and 92 yards)
2019 Week 13: 16-58-0; 1-21-0 (a game with 17 touches and 79 yards)
2019 Week 16: 15-45-0; 0-0-0 (total bummer in the fantasy championships without a doubt)
2019 Week 17: 13-41-0; 1-1-0 (see above note about Week 17 :))
2020 Week 1: 10-60-0; 1-6-0 (meh)

2020 Week 4: 6-43-0; 0-0-0 (injured early...in a game the Browns ended up rushing for 307 yards, sigh)

So overall, Chubb has really only had 5 games that one can truly be unhappy with (the ones in red).
1 of those 5 he underperformed solely because of an in-game injury.
2 of those 5 were Week 17 and affected only a very, very small percentage of fantasy owners.

 

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i snagged Hunt in the 5th last year and was ecstatic - especially after owning Chubb in '19 and watching KH sink the back end of the season for ol' Nick.  

and he was just one Chubb injury away from possible overall rb1 status, amirite?

ok.

Chubb missed 4 games, Hunt did the following as top dawg, weeks 5-8:

20/72/0, 3/21/1 vs Dolts

18/40/0, 2/17/0 @Stillers

18/76/0, 3/26/1 @der Büngles

14/66/0, 2/7/0 vs da Raihhhduhhuzz

so we got 70/254/on the ground, 10/71/2 thru the air. 

80 touches for 325 yds and 2 TDs ... without a doubt one of the bigger busts of the season whilst in his featured role, as contrasted to expectations. true, the Dolts & Stillers were legit top 5 defenses at that part of the season, but ... c'mon. 

... Chubb returned week 9 and they both destroyed the Texans. no surprise there. 

Chubb is the far superior runner - best pure giddyup in the gig.  period. 

and this notion that Hunt is the better gl back is also misleading - i sat thru any number of botched and wretched gl failures from KH last year ... Stefanski may have used him too much for Chubbo owners to digest, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's better by any stretch.  

ZERO rushing TDs in the month long stretch of games with Chubb on ice.  sorry, folks - that ain't convincing me one iota. 

i expect this to be more Chubb-centric in '21 - he will be a legit steal at his current adp. 

15 total TDs incoming. 

tenor.gif

 

 

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  • 1 month later...
On 4/30/2021 at 4:41 AM, pastorofmuppets2 said:

i snagged Hunt in the 5th last year and was ecstatic - especially after owning Chubb in '19 and watching KH sink the back end of the season for ol' Nick.  

and he was just one Chubb injury away from possible overall rb1 status, amirite?

ok.

Chubb missed 4 games, Hunt did the following as top dawg, weeks 5-8:

20/72/0, 3/21/1 vs Dolts

18/40/0, 2/17/0 @Stillers

18/76/0, 3/26/1 @der Büngles

14/66/0, 2/7/0 vs da Raihhhduhhuzz

so we got 70/254/on the ground, 10/71/2 thru the air. 

80 touches for 325 yds and 2 TDs ... without a doubt one of the bigger busts of the season whilst in his featured role, as contrasted to expectations. true, the Dolts & Stillers were legit top 5 defenses at that part of the season, but ... c'mon. 

... Chubb returned week 9 and they both destroyed the Texans. no surprise there. 

Chubb is the far superior runner - best pure giddyup in the gig.  period. 

and this notion that Hunt is the better gl back is also misleading - i sat thru any number of botched and wretched gl failures from KH last year ... Stefanski may have used him too much for Chubbo owners to digest, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's better by any stretch.  

ZERO rushing TDs in the month long stretch of games with Chubb on ice.  sorry, folks - that ain't convincing me one iota. 

i expect this to be more Chubb-centric in '21 - he will be a legit steal at his current adp. 

15 total TDs incoming. 

tenor.gif

 

 

Contract yr as well. Giddy up. Bold call-top 3 2022 pick.

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Given the recency of high performing backs getting extended early, I'm going to bet he gets an extension by August and isn't in a contract year after all.   

For me, his current cost seems fine.  I don't love the idea of him as my first round pick, but it's a point where I can't really take the other guys over him either.   

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18 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Given the recency of high performing backs getting extended early, I'm going to bet he gets an extension by August and isn't in a contract year after all.   

For me, his current cost seems fine.  I don't love the idea of him as my first round pick, but it's a point where I can't really take the other guys over him either.   

Don’t love the idea as your first rd pick? 
let’s compare my Chubb to other first round backs…

saquon v Chubb…Chubb—Chubb isn’t a flashy name and that’s great. Quads on the other hand has had one great yr and is rehabbing again. Crap o line as well. Chubb elite oline that pounds the rock.

kamara v Chubb…umm yea, RIP DREW, hello famous and the vulture hill. Those lovely screens from drew a distant memory.

zeke v Chubb…Zeke looked like a shell of himself last yr. no burst, no explosion—just a 20 touch 4ypc dude. Boring.

Jon Taylor v Chubb…really tired of typing at this point. 
 

id take cmc , cook, Henry over Chubb in rd1 and that’s about it. What other first rd backs am I missing. Before all the Chubb has hunt to contend w crew starts yellin, this offense revolves around Chubb…

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Don’t love idea as your first rd pick? 

Here's me ranting about a bunch of other running backs you didn't even mention in comparison to Chubb

 

Me repeating what I typed:

I don't love the idea of him as my first round pick, but it's a point where I can't really take the other guys over him either

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

Me repeating what I typed:

I don't love the idea of him as my first round pick, but it's a point where I can't really take the other guys over him either

My bad. I should of just said—-u really should just take Chubb top5 and don’t look back.

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8 hours ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

They still get paid for name brand recognition.

yeah, a big NO on that, dawg ... this ain't the NBA - and i, for one, am ecstatic about that. 

it's still a qb driven gig, right down to Q factor ... for as wildly popular as professional tackle foosball is, the great najority of it's stars labor in relative obscurity, as per recognition and brand pumping - and gargantuan contracts are not doled out like penny candy in this leeg, either ... it be whut it be. 

Chubbo will get paid, tho ... his tape will earn him the prodigious coin, not his "name" - and i an totally Archie wif that. 

🛼

 

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6 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Don’t love the idea as your first rd pick? 
let’s compare my Chubb to other first round backs…

saquon v Chubb…Chubb—Chubb isn’t a flashy name and that’s great. Quads on the other hand has had one great yr and is rehabbing again. Crap o line as well. Chubb elite oline that pounds the rock.

kamara v Chubb…umm yea, RIP DREW, hello famous and the vulture hill. Those lovely screens from drew a distant memory.

zeke v Chubb…Zeke looked like a shell of himself last yr. no burst, no explosion—just a 20 touch 4ypc dude. Boring.

Jon Taylor v Chubb…really tired of typing at this point. 
 

id take cmc , cook, Henry over Chubb in rd1 and that’s about it. What other first rd backs am I missing. Before all the Chubb has hunt to contend w crew starts yellin, this offense revolves around Chubb…

 

 

I agree. This guy even with hunt is the closest to a guarantee to meeting his numbers.  

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8 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

My bad. I should of just said—-u really should just take Chubb top5 and don’t look back.

If you give me 3 drafts, and i'm 5th every time, I take Chubb once, Barkley once, and Taylor once.  Why?  Hunt, only because of Hunt.    I low key think Cleveland has a top 5 offense, perhaps the best line in the NFL, and Chubb is as talented as any back in the league.   Hunt goes down in August for the year, Chubb is the #2 overall pick in PPR for me, and that's only because CMC is just fed a ridiculous amount of catches that I can't say no to.   

There will be a day when he gets a backfield to himself, and hopefully I have a piece when it happens.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/29/2021 at 2:08 PM, Gohawks said:

I see too much 12/60/0 & 1/5/0 type games.

Where do you see that? Of the last 10 full games he played last year, he had at least 100 yards or a TD in all 10 games. 

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Fantasy is all about consistency. Only Cook and Kamara were more consistent than Chubb last year. Dude is an automatic 100 yards and more likely than not to score a TD every time he suits up. That's a winning equation for fantasy. 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Fantasy is all about consistency. Only Cook and Kamara were more consistent than Chubb last year. Dude is an automatic 100 yards and more likely than not to score a TD every time he suits up. That's a winning equation for fantasy. 

I think the main issue for me is that he has limited upside for a 1st round pick.

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the KHunt factor is a thorn, but i debunked just how much so in an earlier post up in here. 

... btw, we always hear from the KHunt kamp that he's the most valuable cuff, that a Chubb injury would vault him way up the rb1 tier (also debunked in said earlier post), but ... have folks given pause to how much more beastly Chubb would be if KHunt went down?

it cuts both ways, amigos 

🛀

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

I think the main issue for me is that he has limited upside for a 1st round pick.

 

That's a fair point.  Chubb provides such consistency and safety, barring injury, that I like him as a 1st round pick.  In the first few rounds I want to avoid busts, even if they don't have as much upside as others in the same range.

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

I think the main issue for me is that he has limited upside for a 1st round pick.

He's unlikely to be the number one overall RB. But he's very likely to be a top 5 RB.

His upside is something like 1800 total yards and 15 TDs. He won't catch 60 passes, so yes, the very best do it all RBs have more upside. But those guys are getting drafted ahead of him anyway.

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