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2021 May Closer Thread


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20 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Reyes & Clase seem to be seriously underrated by those taking it upon themselves to do up rankings on this thread. They just keep crushing it but are routinely ranked in the 10-20 range. Makes no sense.

I think people are skeptical of Reyes because of his walk rate, currently at 7.04/9IP.  He also has an xERA of 4.28 and xFIP of 5.22.  Pitchers with those underlying stats tend to have trouble.  Not saying he hasn't been great to own and love what he's doing, but I think people are just being cautious because of the walks and underlying stats that say blowups coming.

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Hard to trust Reyes with his 7+ BB/9 and 100% LOB right now. Dont get me wrong, ive been enjoying the steady dose of saves but i fully expect a blowup at some point unless he gets his command tightened up

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Reyes & Clase seem to be seriously underrated by those taking it upon themselves to do up rankings on this thread. They just keep crushing it but are routinely ranked in the 10-20 range. Makes no sense.

I think the mistake people are making with clase is that they see the K/9 and aren’t impressed when they see it next to karinchak and think the job is more in jeopardy than it is. That’s a very lazy way to judge his dominance. When you watch him you quickly realize that’s not why he’s dominant. Almost nobody makes good contact with his pitches. I’ve said this before and I’ll repeat it, his dominance is very late career Mariano Rivera-like. 
This season after 38 batted balls he’s given up 1 barrel. Last year it was 3. The average launch angle this year is -0.7 degrees and every statcast stat is in the red. Everything is a SSS at this point of the season for everyone, but of the locked in closers the only one I’d say has had a smoother easier time at the end of games is Chapman so far. I trust him like a top 3 guy and that’s an opinion made from watching literally every pitch he’s thrown this season (and I was a karinchak supporter when things were uncertain).

Edited by Wytchclt55
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Reyes hasn’t allowed a run in 15 innings and hasn’t allowed a baserunner in 3/4 outings now... but you don’t trust him?

 

No i don’t trust Mr. 4.23 xEra, and I’m not afraid to say it.  
 

edit: especially with a dominant reliever in Gallegos right there if he slips up.  
 

Besides, who would you take above him on this list? 

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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49 minutes ago, svdude said:

I think people are skeptical of Reyes because of his walk rate, currently at 7.04/9IP.  He also has an xERA of 4.28 and xFIP of 5.22.  Pitchers with those underlying stats tend to have trouble.  Not saying he hasn't been great to own and love what he's doing, but I think people are just being cautious because of the walks and underlying stats that say blowups coming.

 

47 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

Hard to trust Reyes with his 7+ BB/9 and 100% LOB right now. Dont get me wrong, ive been enjoying the steady dose of saves but i fully expect a blowup at some point unless he gets his command tightened up

Who was the Boston closer two years ago that kept walking everybody and most anticipated a big blow up, but it didn’t happen that year? Workman, I believe. Maybe Reyes does the same thing. At least he’s showing improvement in the short-run...only 2 walks in his last 6ip, both in the same game. Maybe he’ll get the walks under control...for him, anyway lol. 

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

Reyes & Clase seem to be seriously underrated by those taking it upon themselves to do up rankings on this thread. They just keep crushing it but are routinely ranked in the 10-20 range. Makes no sense.

Again, posts like this aren’t productive. You’d have to give an example of a guy in the top 10 who you’d take clase over (I have him at #11)

as a clase owner, I’m not denying his dominance at all. But maybe the #1 thing or factor I used for this list is Job Security, and nobody in #’s 1-10 has 1) perhaps the best reliever in the majors breathing down their neck going in the 8th inning and 2) a manager who is isn’t afraid to tinker with their bullpen.  I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possivle for a “demotion” to the 8th inning to occur with 2 blowups or something like that, something I can’t say for the guys I ranked 1-10 on this list 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

Reyes hasn’t allowed a run in 15 innings and hasn’t allowed a baserunner in 3/4 outings now... but you don’t trust him?

 

Same with Clase (0.00 era). For me, both Reyes and Clase are now firmly in the circle of trust. And I know that @Fbaseballgod is a "big" Rodriguez fan, but to put him ahead of those two when there's a 90% chance he gets traded and put into a set up role in a month doesn't make sense to me. It's also going to take a solid year of me seeing Ian Kennedy be effective for me to actually believe he has job security. Sorry, but there's too much of a history of sucking / mediocrity to ignore it after one month. 

 

1 hour ago, smeeze said:

Reyes & Clase seem to be seriously underrated by those taking it upon themselves to do up rankings on this thread. They just keep crushing it but are routinely ranked in the 10-20 range. Makes no sense.

I understand the skepticism with Reyes early on because of all the walks, but he's really turned that around (just look at his WHIP) and now that Hicks is injured that's one less plan B if he falters. People seem to be ignoring those facts. I also don't see Cleveland messing with the Karinchak / Chase 8th / 9th inning one two punch anytime soon. With the exception of maybe Williams / Hader it's the nastiest one two punch in the game right now. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Again, posts like this aren’t productive. You’d have to give an example of a guy in the top 10 who you’d take clase over (I have him at #11)

as a clase owner, I’m not denying his dominance at all. But maybe the #1 thing or factor I used for this list is Job Security, and nobody in #’s 1-10 has 1) perhaps the best reliever in the majors breathing down their neck going in the 8th inning and 2) a manager who is isn’t afraid to tinker with their bullpen.  I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possivle for a “demotion” to the 8th inning to occur with 2 blowups or something like that, something I can’t say for the guys I ranked 1-10 on this list 

If you want real life examples, I would replace Rodriguez and Kennedy with Reyes and Clase in the top tier. 

Also, when Tito's had a dominant closer in the past (i.e., the glory years for Hand) he's used him so I'm not sure it's fair to classify him as a "manager who isn't afraid to tinker" with his bullpen. Clase is the guy and Karinchak is the guy before the guy. 

Edited by jmcampbe11
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

If you want real life examples, I would replace Rodriguez and Kennedy with Reyes and Clase in the top tier. 

I can maaaybe understand Rodriguez. But he’s been elite for 2 seasons now (he’s gotta be the most underrated RP in the game, he hasn’t given up a BASERUNNER in the last 9 innings), and has an insane amount of job security because the bullpen sucks. The ONLY risk for him is a trade, but he’s also in ARB years and has 3 years of control so I don’t think it’s as forgone of a conclusion that he gets traded. And even if he’s traded, there’s a chance he closes for his new team.

For Kennedy. He might genuinely have the most job security on anyone on this list besides Hader/Chapman/Kimbrel.   The Texas bullpen is a toxic wasteland, the Rangers want him to accumulate value to be traded (now this is a genuine trade candidate), and I don’t see him losing his role even with 3, 4, maybe even 5 blowups. Whose his competition, Joely Rodriguez? And yeah, you might not trust him but he’s been PHENOMENAL so far and lots of save opps too 

Edit: and when I say understand, I mean understand for Clase. No way for Reyes, not even close 

 

 

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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9 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I can maaaybe understand Rodriguez. But he’s been elite for 2 seasons now (he’s gotta be the most underrated RP in the game, he hasn’t given up a BASERUNNER in the last 9 innings), and has an insane amount of job security because the bullpen sucks. The ONLY risk for him is a trade, but he’s also in ARB years and has 3 years of control so I don’t think it’s as forgone of a conclusion that he gets traded. And even if he’s traded, there’s a chance he closes for his new team.

For Kennedy. He might genuinely have the most job security on anyone on this list besides Hader/Chapman/Kimbrel.   The Texas bullpen is a toxic wasteland, the Rangers want him to accumulate value to be traded (now this is a genuine trade candidate), and I don’t see him losing his role even with 3, 4, maybe even 5 blowups. Whose his competition, Joely Rodriguez? And yeah, you might not trust him but he’s been PHENOMENAL so far and lots of save opps too 

Edit: and when I say understand, I mean understand for Clase. No way for Reyes, not even close 

 

 

Job security doesn't erase Ian Kennedy's  career 4.12 ERA and propensity for sucking for the last 10+ years. Maybe he's finally figured things out, but no one in their right mind would label him an "elite" closer after one good month. And keep sleeping on Reyes. He's gong to lead the NL in saves this season with 35+.

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9 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Job security doesn't erase Ian Kennedy's  career 4.12 ERA and propensity for sucking for the last 10+ years. Maybe he's finally figured things out, but no one in their right mind would label him an "elite" closer after one good month. And keep sleeping on Reyes. He's gong to lead the NL in saves this season with 35+.

Don't get me wrong, I own him. But there's a fine line between bold predictions and desperate prayers.

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29 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Job security doesn't erase Ian Kennedy's  career 4.12 ERA and propensity for sucking for the last 10+ years. Maybe he's finally figured things out, but no one in their right mind would label him an "elite" closer after one good month. And keep sleeping on Reyes. He's gong to lead the NL in saves this season with 35+.

It's not one good month though. He was good all of 2019 as the closer for the Royals.  FIP of 2.99, over a K per inning, low walk rate.  Depends how much stock you put into his horrid 15 innings last year.  They happened, yes, but in unusual circumstances. 

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It's probably not fair to count Kennedy's 10+ seasons as a starter against him either. Even Rivera sucked as a starter. Kennedy is no Rivera obviously. But he has only had one full season as a RP.

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

Don't get me wrong, I own him. But there's a fine line between bold predictions and desperate prayers.

I mean, he's second in the NL in saves RIGHT NOW and only two behind the leader. Is it really that bold and impossible? Unless the Cards get cute and try to start him later in the season I'd say the odds are pretty high that he finishes top 5 in saves. 

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3 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I can maaaybe understand Rodriguez. But he’s been elite for 2 seasons now (he’s gotta be the most underrated RP in the game, he hasn’t given up a BASERUNNER in the last 9 innings), and has an insane amount of job security because the bullpen sucks. The ONLY risk for him is a trade, but he’s also in ARB years and has 3 years of control so I don’t think it’s as forgone of a conclusion that he gets traded. 

 

If the Pirates don't trade Rich Rodriguez it would represent a remarkable display of inept incompetence by their front office.

... so you might be right ...

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10 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

My subjective rankings 🔥

Tier 1: The  Elite Production and Also Rock Solid Job Security

1.  Aroldis Chapman

2. Josh Hader

3. Craig Kimbrel

4. Liam Hendriks

5. Matt Barnes

6. Ryan Pressly

7. Mark Melancon

8. Ian Kennedy

9. Richard Rodriguez

The Elite Production OR Rock Solid Job Security 

---

10. Raisel Iglesias

11.  Emmanuel Clase

12. Edwin Diaz (would be higher if not for injury)

13. Hector Neris

14. Brad Hand

15.  Will Smith

16.  Cesar Valdez 

---- MASSIVE DROP

The "I don't trust these dudes in either the production or "role" category"

17.  Alex Reyes

18. Kenley Jansen

19.  Yimi Garcia 

20. Stefan Crichton

21.  Daniel Bard

22. Gregory Soto

The true question marks

23. Taylor Rogers 

24. Tyler Rogers  

25. Kendall Graveman 

26. Rafael Dolis until Merryweather comes back

27. Tejay Antone (at least he'll give you good ratios)

28. Josh Staumont

29.  Pete Fairbanks

30.  Pick a random A's reliever 

 

 

 

Brad Hand has a 0.00 era and 100% of his teams saves. Is he missing the elite production or rock solid job security? Lol

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8 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

Brad Hand has a 0.00 era and 100% of his teams saves. Is he missing the elite production or rock solid job security? Lol

I don’t consider him in the “elite production” category.  My eye test said he was shaky last year (and in Cleveland) and his XEra is 3.54 this year so he’s gotten lucky.  We will see 

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1 minute ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I don’t consider him in the “elite production” category.  My eye test said he was shaky last year (and in Cleveland) and his XEra is 3.54 this year so he’s gotten lucky.  We will see 

2.05 era, 1.37 FIP, 11.9 SO/9, 7.25 SO/BB and the most saves in all of baseball is considered shaky? I guess we have different definitions of shaky...

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16 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

2.05 era, 1.37 FIP, 11.9 SO/9, 7.25 SO/BB and the most saves in all of baseball is considered shaky? I guess we have different definitions of shaky...

He looked shaky imo.  I’ve never trusted Brad hand 

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

If the Pirates don't trade Rich Rodriguez it would represent a remarkable display of inept incompetence by their front office.

... so you might be right ...

I think it's possible he keeps the job as closer depending who trades for him. Yankees or Dodgers? No chance. But if some of the current quasi-contenders are still in the running come June, I could see him closing for Miami, Philadelphia, Oakland, Toronoto, SF...

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