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2021 May Closer Thread


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3 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

This is like a callback to something you said earlier in this thread, right? Nice Rust Cohle reference.

Yeah, some of us were joking the Reds were going to go back to Amir, then realize he sucks so give Sims a chance, only for him to blow it yet again, then they'd look at Antone dominating lower innings and reluctantly try him in the ninth. Rinse, repeat.

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Posted (edited)

Matheny had been using a true committee earlier in the year until Staumont started to pull away as the de facto closer.  Staumont had then struggled in a few non - save opps, including his last appearance when he allowed 5 baserunners in one inning. Maybe Matheny got spooked and wanted to give Staumont a bit of a breather, as he had pitched 3 of the last 5 games (although 2 of them were saves and he didn't give up a run in either).  Staumont still is a perfect 5-5 with a 0.00 ERA in save opps. Probably can't confirm anything until the next save opp though.  

Edited by swingbatter
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Fwiw Sims has gotten INSANELY unlucky this year (like a 3 run difference between ERA and Xera) and has been put in a lot of tough situations.  The reds are analytics heavy so it’s not surprising they still trust Sims 

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16 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Yeah, some of us were joking the Reds were going to go back to Amir, then realize he sucks so give Sims a chance, only for him to blow it yet again, then they'd look at Antone dominating lower innings and reluctantly try him in the ninth. Rinse, repeat.

Oh yeah it's the same with the Jays pen lately on here too, everyday same story lol. They are just going to keep regurgitating the same cycle until someone puts together a run of 4-5 saves and none of them appear able to do that.

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3 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Fwiw Sims has gotten INSANELY unlucky this year (like a 3 run difference between ERA and Xera) and has been put in a lot of tough situations.  The reds are analytics heavy so it’s not surprising they still trust Sims 

 

Tough to complain about being unlucky when you're averaging 6 BB per 9. 

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4 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Tough to complain about being unlucky when you're averaging 6 BB per 9. 

I hope to high heck that people relying on xERA as a guidepost to how to interpret relievers’ performances in May are guided well.

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5 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Tough to complain about being unlucky when you're averaging 6 BB per 9. 

I mean... you can.  ERA: 6.48.  XeRA: 3.14.  Fip: 4.29.  XFIP: 4.09.  Unlucky any way you slice it.

He's also been put in the extra inning situations an absurd amount of time which has forced a lot of IBB.  He also been put into weird situations a lot with men on base.  He's also had at least two very bizzare appearances which messed up his stats, one when it was pouring rain and one in Coors.

 

(Oh, and the fact that he was one of the best relievers in the entire game last year, buyoyed by ridiculously high spin rates, and people don't just lose the ability to be a lockdown reliever overnight).

But, dont take my word for it.  Take the Reds, who obviously trust him enough to keep him in the closer role for now.

Edited by Fbaseballgod
Clarifying parenthasis
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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I hope to high heck that people relying on xERA as a guidepost to how to interpret relievers’ performances in May are guided well.

Well, relievers are hard to interpret by default because their sample sizes are going to be small, especially early in the season.  xERA isn't a "good" measure but neither is ERA or really anything else at this point.  Even a 60 inning sample isn't that large in the grand scheme of things, and that's an entire seasons worth of work.  I assume the only relievers you think are worth interpreting are guys like Castillo who have been the same for like 3-4 years so you can have an adequate sample size in your mind

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Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

Well, relievers are hard to interpret by default because their sample sizes are going to be small, especially early in the season.  xERA isn't a "good" measure but neither is ERA or really anything else at this point.  Even a 60 inning sample isn't that large in the grand scheme of things, and that's an entire seasons worth of work.  I assume the only relievers you think are worth interpreting are guys like Castillo who have been the same for like 3-4 years so you can have an adequate sample size in your mind

I agree with this - but by the same token I don’t know why you keep raising it as a valid evaluative criterion.  I thought your other points held more weight, to be honest.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

I agree with this - but by the same token I don’t know why you keep raising it as a valid evaluative criterion.  I thought your other points held more weight, to be honest.

I wasn't trying to use it as an end-all-be-all, just one example that could try and show an objective way that Sims has gotten unlucky so far.  But almost all of the metrics point to this and the fact that he's just been put in uncomfortable situations all season.  But at the end of the day, it's only what the Reds think that matters, not what you or I think.   It probably helps Sims that the only good reliever besides him in the pen is Antone, so it's not like he has much competition 

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Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

I wasn't trying to use it as an end-all-be-all, just one example that could try and show an objective way that Sims has gotten unlucky so far.  But almost all of the metrics point to this and the fact that he's just been put in uncomfortable situations all season.  But at the end of the day, it's only what the Reds think that matters, not what you or I think.   It probably helps Sims that the only good reliever besides him in the pen is Antone, so it's not like he has much competition 

Understand you - but I would stress the other points you mentioned - I personally find them more persuasive, and I think any analytically minded team (like the Reds) would follow suit.

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7 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

...I mean... you can.  ERA: 6.48.  XeRA: 3.14.  Fip: 4.29.  XFIP: 4.09.  Unlucky any way you slice it...

Granted, 6.48 is significantly worse than the others. But only one of those numbers (xERA) is actually not terrible for a closer. And even 3.14 isn't exactly lights out. 

I think you realize this. But the way to look at those numbers is not like any one of them is the "right" number that the others should follow, but more like extra data points from which a rough average can be drawn. When you take all 4 of those numbers together in context, I don't know if "unlucky" would be the most accurate characterization. But if your point is that he may not have been quite as bad as things may seem on the surface, I'd agree.

As someone said, 11 BB over 17 IP is terrible. On the other hand, 26 K over the same span is pretty good.

 

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7 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I mean... you can.  ERA: 6.48.  XeRA: 3.14.  Fip: 4.29.  XFIP: 4.09.  Unlucky any way you slice it.

He's also been put in the extra inning situations an absurd amount of time which has forced a lot of IBB.  He also been put into weird situations a lot with men on base.  He's also had at least two very bizzare appearances which messed up his stats, one when it was pouring rain and one in Coors.

 

(Oh, and the fact that he was one of the best relievers in the entire game last year, buyoyed by ridiculously high spin rates, and people don't just lose the ability to be a lockdown reliever overnight).

But, dont take my word for it.  Take the Reds, who obviously trust him enough to keep him in the closer role for now.

Forced into a lot of IBB? He’s had two all season. And yes, we’ve seen many RPs go from stud to dud basically overnight. 

His problem is that he’s walked 11 and hit four batters in 17 innings. That’s 15 free runners in 17 innings.

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34 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Forced into a lot of IBB? He’s had two all season. And yes, we’ve seen many RPs go from stud to dud basically overnight. 

His problem is that he’s walked 11 and hit four batters in 17 innings. That’s 15 free runners in 17 innings.

I am telling you that as someone who has followed the Reds all season, a ton of his relief appearances have been derailed by conditions out of his control.  For example: coming in with runners on base already (when he wants to pitch around the batters), coming in during extra innings (same thing and also those 2 IBB), coming in when it was pouring down rain (ball slippery), coming in during Coors, and coming in during a CHC start where literally every pitcher struggled because of the ump and the winds (antone give up a 3 Run HR that game even).  So as someone who has watched the reds all season he definitely feels like he’s gotten unlucky time and time again.  

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7 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I am telling you that as someone who has followed the Reds all season, a ton of his relief appearances have been derailed by conditions out of his control.  For example: coming in with runners on base already (when he wants to pitch around the batters), coming in during extra innings (same thing and also those 2 IBB), coming in when it was pouring down rain (ball slippery), coming in during Coors, and coming in during a CHC start where literally every pitcher struggled because of the ump and the winds (antone give up a 3 Run HR that game even).  So as someone who has watched the reds all season he definitely feels like he’s gotten unlucky time and time again.  

Those situations count. Pitchers have to deal with Coors Field. They have to deal with umpires with odd strike zones or wind. Sometimes they have to come in with runners on base. 

Meanwhile, Garrett gave up only his second run since April 21 last night, but the ratios are still so terrible from his slow start that nobody thinks much of him. Sims has been far worse over the past month, including two implosions at home. 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I am telling you that as someone who has followed the Reds all season, a ton of his relief appearances have been derailed by conditions out of his control.  For example: coming in with runners on base already (when he wants to pitch around the batters), coming in during extra innings (same thing and also those 2 IBB), coming in when it was pouring down rain (ball slippery), coming in during Coors, and coming in during a CHC start where literally every pitcher struggled because of the ump and the winds (antone give up a 3 Run HR that game even).  So as someone who has watched the reds all season he definitely feels like he’s gotten unlucky time and time again.  

And that's fine...I wasn't addressing your observation of him as someone who follows the Reds. I simply refuted the point you made about him having a lot of IBBs and the point you made about RPs not turning into duds overnight. And then I pointed out the 15 free baserunners in his 17 ip. It's not as if giving free passes has never been a problem for him. He has a career 4.4 bb/9 and has hit 15 batters in 159 career innings. That's 92 free baserunners in 159 career innings. 

So while I recognize that you watch the Reds a lot, it's hard for me to swallow the "unlucky" line when he's made a career of allowing batters to reach without even putting the ball in play. Even if he's been unlucky this year, he still has not been a good RP in 2021. Maybe he will from this point on, but it's difficult to be confident. 

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33 minutes ago, Words said:

Those situations count. Pitchers have to deal with Coors Field. They have to deal with umpires with odd strike zones or wind. Sometimes they have to come in with runners on base. 

Meanwhile, Garrett gave up only his second run since April 21 last night, but the ratios are still so terrible from his slow start that nobody thinks much of him. Sims has been far worse over the past month, including two implosions at home. 

Garrett has definitely been better since April 21...2 er in 8.2 ip, 6 baserunners, 11 k. My question would be, is it because he was pulled from late-inning duty? In his first six appearances (thru 4/21), he never entered earlier than the 8th inning, finished three games, entered in the 9th three times and the 10th once. Since then, he's entered in the 6th twice, the 7th four times, the 8th twice, the 9th once, and the 10th once. And when he gave up the HR in the 9th last night, it was his first traditional save opp since his April 21 implosion.

That set of facts leads me to believe he's just not capable of being a reliable closer and is better off as a 6th-7th guy. 

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28 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Garrett has definitely been better since April 21...2 er in 8.2 ip, 6 baserunners, 11 k. My question would be, is it because he was pulled from late-inning duty? In his first six appearances (thru 4/21), he never entered earlier than the 8th inning, finished three games, entered in the 9th three times and the 10th once. Since then, he's entered in the 6th twice, the 7th four times, the 8th twice, the 9th once, and the 10th once. And when he gave up the HR in the 9th last night, it was his first traditional save opp since his April 21 implosion.

That set of facts leads me to believe he's just not capable of being a reliable closer and is better off as a 6th-7th guy. 

That is possible, but who on that team has shown they can handle the 9th? Doolittle?

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2 minutes ago, Words said:

That is possible, but who on that team has shown they can handle the 9th? Doolittle?

Antone...probably their best option at this point. Neither Garrett nor Sims is doing anything to inspire confidence. They need to figure out the formula for their pen, and considering Garrett's success since coming into games earlier, that's what I'd stick with in his case. 

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