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I'm curious what anyone else has used as an approach to quantifying durability.  Like many, I use Z scores to build customized rankings for my league as part of draft prep.   If this is done purely using per game averages, it does not factor in games played at all.   In that case, someone like Kevin Durant and his 30-ish games played is a top 10 player.  If this is done using season long totals, Durant will end up barely top 100.  Neither seems like a true accurate reflection of his value heading into next year.  So one thing I have tried is to use games played as an additional category in the z rating but counting it only half as much towards the total score.  This helps some as it gives a minor penalty for those who fell below the games played average and a minor boost for those that fell above. I suppose taking some multi-year average of games played would be a logical approach but also don't want this to become a part-time job.  

I have seen others who on this forum suggest a qualitative approach by applying some basic guidelines:{Don't draft players 30 and over; don't draft players on bad teams that may tank, don't draft players on great teams that may rest, don't draft high salary players in the final year of a contract that may get bought out or sat (new phenomenon- Drummond, Blake, Aldridge), don't draft players with injury history.}. Alternatively, on a recent Edge podcast, they were suggesting to simply ignore the games played risk - everyone is going to miss games, everyone is at risk to be rested, so just draft the best players at the best value.  Obviously this topics was exacerbated by Covid this year but this challenge is not going away.  So as an off-season thought exercise, I would love to hear others' approach to this topic.

 

Edited by HRHoops2
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1 hour ago, HRHoops2 said:

{Don't draft players 30 and over; don't draft players on bad teams that may tank, don't draft players on great teams that may rest, don't draft high salary players in the final year of a contract that may get bought out or sat (new phenomenon- Drummond, Blake, Aldridge), don't draft players with injury history.}. Alternatively, on a recent Edge podcast, they were suggesting to simply ignore the games played risk - everyone is going to miss games, everyone is at risk to be rested, so just draft the best players at the best value.  Obviously this topics was exacerbated by Covid this year but this challenge is not going away.  

...

but also don't want this to become a part-time job.

This right here is why I'm considering quitting fantasy after this year. The acceleration of load management, soft approach to injury management, resting for the sake of resting, deliberate tanking leading to sitting fully healthy players, resting 22 year olds, covid, health and safety protocols, resting b2bs - it's very hard to trust that your players wont be announced OUT the same day of their game for something that is completely impossible to see coming. That's not acceptable in the playoffs. 

Sure, it's an "even playing field", but when you miss 6 games in the finals and your opponent has players playing b2bs it gets old fast. I know fantasy is and always will be a combination of luck and skill, but that's too luck oriented for me. 

I've always been a highly competitive fantasy player, and I cant play *just* to have fun. I know, that's my own problem. But losing isnt all that fun. Winning makes it worth it. I spend a lot of time playing this and dont want that time to be "wasted" by totally unexpected shenanigans like what happened this year. Championships shouldnt be decided based on games played unless it was due to well executed calculated streaming. Not pure luck on your best players being declared out on a seemingly random basis.

I'm well aware that this year may have been a one-off scenario or maybe just the worst case scenario, but it put a bad taste in my mouth. I put too much effort and time into fantasy for it to be decided by silly things like it has this year. For what it's worth, I'm going to win the championship in my big money league as the 6th seed and have had a large disadvantage in games played every round of the playoffs, so I'm not saying this with salt but rather disappointment. And like you mentioned,  the fact that its turning to be a part time job means it's too much work for not enough enjoyment. Surez that might be more of a reflection on me than on fantasy, but as someones who's highly competitive all I'm saying is its turned to be more of a chore than a game because it's almost impossible to accurately manage all this uncertainty. 

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1 hour ago, HRHoops2 said:

I'm curious what anyone else has used as an approach to quantifying durability.  Like many, I use Z scores to build customized rankings for my league as part of draft prep.   If this is done purely using per game averages, it does not factor in games played at all.   In that case, someone like Kevin Durant and his 30-ish games played is a top 10 player.  If this is done using season long totals, Durant will end up barely top 100.  Neither seems like a true accurate reflection of his value heading into next year.  So one thing I have tried is to use games played as an additional category in the z rating but counting it only half as much towards the total score.  This helps some as it gives a minor penalty for those who fell below the games played average and a minor boost for those that fell above. I suppose taking some multi-year average of games played would be a logical approach but also don't want this to become a part-time job.  

I have seen others who on this forum suggest a qualitative approach by applying some basic guidelines:{Don't draft players 30 and over; don't draft players on bad teams that may tank, don't draft players on great teams that may rest, don't draft high salary players in the final year of a contract that may get bought out or sat (new phenomenon- Drummond, Blake, Aldridge), don't draft players with injury history.}. Alternatively, on a recent Edge podcast, they were suggesting to simply ignore the games played risk - everyone is going to miss games, everyone is at risk to be rested, so just draft the best players at the best value.  Obviously this topics was exacerbated by Covid this year but this challenge is not going away.  So as an off-season thought exercise, I would love to hear others' approach to this topic.

 

Nice, but in essence it's unpredictable. Towns had many 82 game seasons before missing a majority of the season like this one. CP3 was deemed fragile until he has a great durable season. I would say it's luck combined with risk. You have some players that are riskier, but it doesn't mean they'll have injury-riddle seasons either. 

In any case, the secret to success is to scour the Waiver Wire, take difficult decisions when you have to, and of course like any game, be lucky. 

I drafted Curry this year, and the reason I was able to draft him so low (9th), is that the expectations were that he would have a lot of injuries this year. Well, until now, he's been simply amazing. Being lucky is huge part of this game whether you like it or not, and if you can't stomach the injuries, you should find another game.

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Never draft Porzingis, one of the golden rules. The king of sitting B2B's and abandoning you when fantasy playoffs start. 

Made the mistake of thinking this year might be different. 

But honestly drafting is just half the battle. Leagues are won on the waiver wire & streaming 

Just look at your team beginning of the season & at the end. Huge turnaround 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, HRHoops2 said:

I'm curious what anyone else has used as an approach to quantifying durability.  Like many, I use Z scores to build customized rankings for my league as part of draft prep.   If this is done purely using per game averages, it does not factor in games played at all.   In that case, someone like Kevin Durant and his 30-ish games played is a top 10 player.  If this is done using season long totals, Durant will end up barely top 100.  Neither seems like a true accurate reflection of his value heading into next year.  So one thing I have tried is to use games played as an additional category in the z rating but counting it only half as much towards the total score.  This helps some as it gives a minor penalty for those who fell below the games played average and a minor boost for those that fell above. I suppose taking some multi-year average of games played would be a logical approach but also don't want this to become a part-time job.  

I have seen others who on this forum suggest a qualitative approach by applying some basic guidelines:{Don't draft players 30 and over; don't draft players on bad teams that may tank, don't draft players on great teams that may rest, don't draft high salary players in the final year of a contract that may get bought out or sat (new phenomenon- Drummond, Blake, Aldridge), don't draft players with injury history.}. Alternatively, on a recent Edge podcast, they were suggesting to simply ignore the games played risk - everyone is going to miss games, everyone is at risk to be rested, so just draft the best players at the best value.  Obviously this topics was exacerbated by Covid this year but this challenge is not going away.  So as an off-season thought exercise, I would love to hear others' approach to this topic.

 

This is what makes Jokic the clear cut #1 pick. (With Murray out as well) We may also see a player like Randle (Thibs/playing time:37.3 min) and Vucevic join the 1st round in drafts. I'm just hoping some of these players get discounts during the fantasy draft next season. (e.g. KAT to the 2nd round) Another scenario people need to consider is younger players on tanking teams (SGA). A strategy would be to keep during the earlier parts of the season for the increase stats, then sell high before the "tanking" begins with the random rest/injury days. 

Edited by DezedandConfused
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38 minutes ago, HRHoops2 said:

I'm curious what anyone else has used as an approach to quantifying durability.  Like many, I use Z scores to build customized rankings for my league as part of draft prep.   If this is done purely using per game averages, it does not factor in games played at all.   In that case, someone like Kevin Durant and his 30-ish games played is a top 10 player.  If this is done using season long totals, Durant will end up barely top 100.  Neither seems like a true accurate reflection of his value heading into next year.  So one thing I have tried is to use games played as an additional category in the z rating but counting it only half as much towards the total score.  This helps some as it gives a minor penalty for those who fell below the games played average and a minor boost for those that fell above. I suppose taking some multi-year average of games played would be a logical approach but also don't want this to become a part-time job.  

I have seen others who on this forum suggest a qualitative approach by applying some basic guidelines:{Don't draft players 30 and over; don't draft players on bad teams that may tank, don't draft players on great teams that may rest, don't draft high salary players in the final year of a contract that may get bought out or sat (new phenomenon- Drummond, Blake, Aldridge), don't draft players with injury history.}. Alternatively, on a recent Edge podcast, they were suggesting to simply ignore the games played risk - everyone is going to miss games, everyone is at risk to be rested, so just draft the best players at the best value.  Obviously this topics was exacerbated by Covid this year but this challenge is not going away.  So as an off-season thought exercise, I would love to hear others' approach to this topic.

 

Advance metrics quantifies value and projected returns while removing personal bias. BUT there are so many uncontrolled variables that you noted that can skew expectations.  Years ago I did my own valuation spreadsheet but it was too much effort to maintain lol. I moved on to play fantasy sports for fun and try to not take it seriously.

Personally I belong to the audience on your second paragraph when drafting a team: try to avoid aging players (with some exceptions); always target best player available - the more cats the better; #1 scoring option on a team; ball hogs; dominant in scarce cat plus other goodies; roster make up of upcoming season; leap going into year 2 or year 3 or 4; and a lot of luck. I never dwell into player's contracts/final year/etc - that's too much effort. Half of success is from the draft. The other half from waiver picks. And always a lot of luck.

The lesson I learned from this pandemic season, phantom injuries and constant rests .... are players like Bogdanovic brothers, TJ McConnell, Olynyck, etc, who will contribute tremendously come PO time when many star players are rested or play limited minutes. Need to constantly adapt to move forward - and this applies to anything.

Great posts from everyone. All good points. Cheers

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, ez2do4now said:

 

The lesson I learned from this pandemic season, phantom injuries and constant rests .... are players like Bogdanovic brothers, TJ McConnell, Olynyk, etc, who will contribute tremendously come PO time when many star players are rested or play limited minutes. Need to constantly adapt to move forward - and this applies to anything.

Great posts from everyone. All good points. Cheers

-_- 

Edited by DezedandConfused
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1 hour ago, Basketboss21 said:

Nice, but in essence it's unpredictable. Towns had many 82 game seasons before missing a majority of the season like this one. CP3 was deemed fragile until he has a great durable season. I would say it's luck combined with risk. You have some players that are riskier, but it doesn't mean they'll have injury-riddle seasons either. 

In any case, the secret to success is to scour the Waiver Wire, take difficult decisions when you have to, and of course like any game, be lucky. 

I drafted Curry this year, and the reason I was able to draft him so low (9th), is that the expectations were that he would have a lot of injuries this year. Well, until now, he's been simply amazing. Being lucky is huge part of this game whether you like it or not, and if you can't stomach the injuries, you should find another game.

To clarify, I’m not looking for complete risk avoidance but really just trying to figure out how to factor in risk assessment.  And to your point about risk, I had Curry last year on a reasonable auction price but my season still cratered when he went out after 4 games. Also, in highly competitive leagues, free agency ( while an important factor) is not going to replace an early round player lost for the season. I’ve been doing fantasy auctions for 30 years ( yes I’m old), so not looking for another game, just trying to find new ways to think about it.

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I agree with the take that it's hard to quantify because of how suddenly 'iron man' reputations can be forgone. Some guys do look so brittle that I'd never want to draft them, but seems to be a crap shoot more often than not. I know that wouldn't have been a particularly shrewd tactic this year, nor might it ever be, but I'm kind of wary of picking players who excel solely or mostly courtesy of their athleticism. You just feel it makes injuries more liable to happen.

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17 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

Nope they are not related, I thought they were brothers at first as well lol.

LOL. Googled and there are 9 sets of siblings in the NBA. Pretty amazing.

 

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Putting aside the luck factor (e.g. KAT went from iron man in the past several seasons to injury prone this year, or the other way around for CP3), I've been using a rudimentary approach of calculating the average of percentage of games the player has played in each of the past 3 seasons as a metric.

Then I added a layer of gut feeling like old player on a tanking team, old Spurs player, etc.

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My strategy is multi step approach:
 - Make my own rankings. They are based on per-game value, total  value and how player compares to what I call "ideal fantasy player" (calculate average for each category for the top 100 players in each category; ideal player will have the same or better values in each category)
 - Drafting the best player available in the first 7 rounds
 - Trade  away some early round players for extra depth  that fits my team build
 - Keep open spot(s) for streaming  and don't be afraid to cut players you've drafted.

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1 hour ago, legoDude said:

They are not related at all. Bogdanovic is very common last name in Croatia and Serbia

Both have good genetics for bball. Maybe same father but different mother lol. JK. Also saw online that Steve Adams has 17 siblings. 17 !!!! 

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All we can do is point out the obvious in terms of risk assessment. Guys like Kawhi, Porzingis, Nurkic, etc. are guaranteed to lose extended time due to injuries and rest. I just think it's incredibly difficult to really dissect what's happening due to an unprecedented season. It really is like what FVV said - it's the most impure season of basketball because the league rushed back to play because of the business side of things at the expense of the players health. Sure, rest days have been a thing for a while now, but it has been exacerbated by the compressed schedule. I say next year, keep up your due diligence like any other season and avoid any players who historically have been injury prone. I learned going into and during the season that you can only do so much research. I was rolling back a couple of months ago with guys like Harden, Lavine, OG, Fred and even Rob Williams - only for them to become total non factors in my playoff weeks. Just simply put, bad luck.

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