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Trevor Larnach 2021 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

He's bid fairly bad at AAA so far though.  Obviously it's an extremely small sample size, but 8 of his 10 outs so far have been via the strikeout.

He's slugging .692

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

He's bid fairly bad at AAA so far though.  Obviously it's an extremely small sample size, but 8 of his 10 outs so far have been via the strikeout.

He’s 3 for 13 with two walks and eight K’s to go with a pair of HR. Eight K’s in 15 PAs is pretty alarming, despite the extreme SSS. 

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

He's bid fairly bad at AAA so far though.  Obviously it's an extremely small sample size, but 8 of his 10 outs so far have been via the strikeout.

THESE LAST 3 DAYS HAVE BEEN A DISASTER?!?!?!?!?!?

 

Seriously with this?

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4 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

He’s 3 for 13 with two walks and eight K’s to go with a pair of HR. Eight K’s in 15 PAs is pretty alarming, despite the extreme SSS. 

Minn has Soto so they love the big wiff guys.

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18 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

THESE LAST 3 DAYS HAVE BEEN A DISASTER?!?!?!?!?!?

 

Seriously with this?

I know it's a cliche, but maybe you need to switch to decaf.  I was only pointing out an obvious red flag for his success in the majors.  It's an extremely small sample size, but 8 K's in so few plate appearances isn't exactly something that should be ignored either.  It screams contact issues, but I also never said it would be dumb to take a flier on him.  Your reaction was absolutely ridiculous though.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I know it's a cliche, but maybe you need to switch to decaf.  I was only pointing out an obvious red flag for his success in the majors.  It's an extremely small sample size, but 8 K's in so few plate appearances isn't exactly something that should be ignored either.  It screams contact issues, but I also never said it would be dumb to take a flier on him.  Your reaction was absolutely ridiculous though.

Trout Stuck out 9 times in 17 PA window already this year.  Sound the alarm bell.

27% K rate in 2019 in AA with over 100 PAs is a potential red flag. This really isn't. Especially since we have gone a long time w/o minor league games. Might take time to get in a rhythm.

If you watched those PAs and found an alarming reason why he was striking out. That information could be extrapolated into a future worry. You can get some value in a handful of ABs visually, but that absolutely does not come from box score checking.

Edited by Slatykamora
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52 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I know it's a cliche, but maybe you need to switch to decaf.  I was only pointing out an obvious red flag for his success in the majors.  It's an extremely small sample size, but 8 K's in so few plate appearances isn't exactly something that should be ignored either.  It screams contact issues, but I also never said it would be dumb to take a flier on him.  Your reaction was absolutely ridiculous though.

It just means he'll go 6 for his first 11 outta the gates #cuzbasebol ;)

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Batting 5th in his debut. I haven’t followed him too closely but if Fangraphs has him ranked 36th overall in their prospect rankings it’s good enough for me to take a flier on. 

 

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  • tonycpsu locked and unlocked this topic
  • 2 weeks later...

He quietly has had a better start to his career than his more heralded fellow OF prospect (granted, SSS).

Larnach through 8 games (27 PA): .292 BA, .787 OPS, 4 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI

Kirilloff through 8 games (26 PA): .115 BA, .269 OPS, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI

Does Larnach stick in the majors ROS? His performance thus far certainly warrants that.

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Yeah what happens when kiriloff and buxton return?

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On 5/19/2021 at 2:40 PM, Dr. Whom said:

Yeah what happens when kiriloff and buxton return?

Who knows when that will happen? And likely if the Twins continue to suck for another couple of weeks, guys like Cruz, Donaldson, Simmons, etc are all going to be traded

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Byron Buxton (hip) is still limited to "light" rehab activities, per Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.

"He’s started to move around," Baldelli told reporters on Thursday. "Exactly what all of those movements are, those are going to change on a day-to-day basis ... so he still has some work to do and some time before ramping up." It doesn't sound like the 27-year-old outfielder is at all close to returning from the Grade 2 hip strain that sent him to the injured list on May 7. Buxton had roared out to a .370/.408/.772 batting line with nine home runs, 17 RBI, five stolen bases, and 19 runs scored through 24 games before going down.

Doesn't sound like Buxton will be back anytime soon.

Kirilloff is much closer but I think maybe Garlick is the one to go when that happens.

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"He’s started to move around," Baldelli told reporters on Thursday. "Exactly what all of those movements are, those are going to change on a day-to-day basis ... so he still has some work to do and some time before ramping up."

This is the most 2021 injury update quote....😂

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

This was just posted today on RotoBaller.com:

Trevor Larnach - OF, Twins
Recommended move: Add for the long haul. 

I'm a little surprised to see Larnach rostered at such a low rate, considering that his prospect pedigree, and the fact that he is generally playing well on top of it. He is in a platoon, which like the aforementioned Choi, limits his fantasy value, but he is legitimately performing well with a .228/.389/.456 slash line (142 wRC+), as he is providing good power (.228 ISO) and plate discipline (16.7% walk rate).

The Statcast metrics look good here too, with a much better looking .252 expected batting average, a .537 expected slugging, and a .406 expected wOBA. This is one the back of a low 39.5% groundball rate, a super-strong 18.4% barrel rate, and a well-above-average 44.7%. He's pulling a lot of balls at a whopping 68.4% clip, which could limit just how high of an average he hits for, but I doubt the pull rate stays that high going forward, considering he didn't pull the ball all that much in the minor leagues. An elevated pull rate would suggest some good power though, and could be something to monitor going forward.

 

Overall though, there is a lot to like about what Larnach has done at the plate so far. He won't play against lefties all that much, but with injuries aplenty in the Twins' outfield right now, he'll definitely be in there against every righty starter, especially if he continues to play well. To me, Larnach should be rostered at a much higher rate, and the opportunity is still there for those in deep leagues to get in and enjoy what should be good results.

Edited by Wieties
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