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May not be the most popular take but I would draft Kelce 4th-6th depending on how a few things unfold.

I'm in 3 leagues and Kelce was on 2 of the championship teams. In the one league he wasn't on the championship he was on the runner up roster. The advantage the man provides is huge and bar none.

Waller was the closest to him and he was still 35 points off in half PPR. Kelce outscored the 3rd TE by over 100 points. You were basically going in with over a TD advantage against practically every TE in the league. 

It get's even more absurd. Starting week 8, Kelce outscored Waller by an average of 5 PPG. He more than doubled 3rd place and outscored Logan Thomas by an average of 10.2 PPG. Down the stretch of the season and going into the playoffs the man was lapping every TE in the league. I understand Kittle was out and it was an extremely down year for TEs in general but Kelce provides an advantage that is unmatched. He isn't injury prone at a position that is usually plagued by injuries and puts up insane points. 

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Posted (edited)

Totally agree,  I have always been a big proponent of what types of advantages the elite TEs can bring and the years that I have passed on taking Kelce like last year, I couldn't stand the tight end struggle. 

I agree waller is close and is a TE I'd definitely gun for this year if I don't make a kelce reach, same with Andrew and kittle to a lesser extent...but outside of these guys it's brutal. But I agree kelces advantage is huge, all the years I've had him which are most years I do really well as filling that round 2 WR or RB spot with a WW gem isn't anywhere near as hard as doing it with a TE.

I'm debating it as well this year as to how early I want Kelce. It's just reliving the gronk , Graham years and I felt the same back then.

But I will say after drafts it has an odd feeling when I've went kelce at 2 and lack that 2nd elite rb or wr, but it's a move that you just work to fill as things get rolling 

Edited by Savatage79
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40 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Totally agree,  I have always been a big proponent of what types of advantages the elite TEs can bring and the years that I have passed on taking Kelce like last year, I couldn't stand the tight end struggle. 

I agree waller is close and is a TE I'd definitely gun for this year if I don't make a kelce reach, same with Andrew and kittle to a lesser extent...but outside of these guys it's brutal. But I agree kelces advantage is huge, all the years I've had him which are most years I do really well as filling that round 2 WR or RB spot with a WW gem isn't anywhere near as hard as doing it with a TE.

I'm debating it as well this year as to how early I want Kelce. It's just reliving the gronk , Graham years and I felt the same back then.

But I will say after drafts it has an odd feeling when I've went kelce at 2 and lack that 2nd elite rb or wr, but it's a move that you just work to fill as things get rolling 

I've never had Kelce on any teams and whenever I drafted him in mock drafts this last point always made me feel uneasy about my teams.  However, I agree that he provides a great positional advantage.  If I recall correctly, going into 2020 when you compared Kelce's stats to WRs over at least the past few years, Kelce has basically scored like a Top 8-12 WR.  I didn't check for 2020.  So with Kelce you're getting at least a low-end WR1 but a big positional advantage.

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19 minutes ago, ZappB said:

I've never had Kelce on any teams and whenever I drafted him in mock drafts this last point always made me feel uneasy about my teams.  However, I agree that he provides a great positional advantage.  If I recall correctly, going into 2020 when you compared Kelce's stats to WRs over at least the past few years, Kelce has basically scored like a Top 8-12 WR.  I didn't check for 2020.  So with Kelce you're getting at least a low-end WR1 but a big positional advantage.

He outscored every WR other than Adams, Hill, and Diggs. He outscored WR12 by 50 points and WR4 by 25. He was also only outscored by 3 RBs (Kamara, Henry, and Cook) making him the 7th highest scoring skill position player overall as a TE. 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

May not be the most popular take but I would draft Kelce 4th-6th depending on how a few things unfold.

I'm in 3 leagues and Kelce was on 2 of the championship teams. In the one league he wasn't on the championship he was on the runner up roster. The advantage the man provides is huge and bar none.

Waller was the closest to him and he was still 35 points off in half PPR. Kelce outscored the 3rd TE by over 100 points. You were basically going in with over a TD advantage against practically every TE in the league. 

It get's even more absurd. Starting week 8, Kelce outscored Waller by an average of 5 PPG. He more than doubled 3rd place and outscored Logan Thomas by an average of 10.2 PPG. Down the stretch of the season and going into the playoffs the man was lapping every TE in the league. I understand Kittle was out and it was an extremely down year for TEs in general but Kelce provides an advantage that is unmatched. He isn't injury prone at a position that is usually plagued by injuries and puts up insane points. 

There is no spot that is too early to take Kelce. He scored 136 more points than the number 3 TE. 

To put that in perspective, that would be the equivalent of Alvin Kamara putting up his stats from last year, but ending the season with 41 TDs. Only then would he be that far ahead of the field. 

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There's no WR I'd rather take ahead of him. Absolutely a case to take him before some of the top RBs, too.

Ideal draft scenario for me is RB-->Kelce this year. Will probably need to be picking 11 or 12 to pull that off (if I'm lucky). 

I do think that a healthy Kittle is almost as good, but that's a big qualifier.

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43 minutes ago, MingusDew said:

There's no WR I'd rather take ahead of him. Absolutely a case to take him before some of the top RBs, too.

Ideal draft scenario for me is RB-->Kelce this year. Will probably need to be picking 11 or 12 to pull that off (if I'm lucky). 

I do think that a healthy Kittle is almost as good, but that's a big qualifier.

Kittle is almost there but Kelce is in a such better situation with Mahomes compared to Jimmy G or Lance that it's still very clear cut who is the better option. Then when you factor in that Kittle has only played over 14 games in his career once while Kelce has played in 15 or 16 in 6 straight seasons and it isn't all that close anymore. 

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7 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

His track record is also a huge vote of confidence in taking him at number 2, he's been solid as a rock. 

*Cough Cough* Number 2 overall?  @Gohawks where's the soonest you'd take him in a full ppr league? 

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As amazing as Kelce's season was, I wouldn't forecast that he'll repeat that performance - it was literally one of the greatest TE seasons of all-time. I'd obviously take him as the top TE, but I'd fade the idea of assuming he will be the same level of difference maker he was last season.

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

*Cough Cough* Number 2 overall?  @Gohawks where's the soonest you'd take him in a full ppr league? 

I can’t justify him over CMC or Henry in any format. Will see how Barkley looks leading up to the season but if we assume he’s all good 4th overall.

Kamara scares me considering he doesn’t have volume so he’s much more dependent on efficiency and that teams going through a lot of changes. Cook is great but there’s a 0% chance he plays 16 games. That being said both are still great so I’m not 100% sure if I’d take him over them.

Still, the soonest is likely 4th

24 minutes ago, trilly said:

As amazing as Kelce's season was, I wouldn't forecast that he'll repeat that performance - it was literally one of the greatest TE seasons of all-time. I'd obviously take him as the top TE, but I'd fade the idea of assuming he will be the same level of difference maker he was last season.

The dudes a virtual lock for 100 receptions and 1,200 yards. Last season wasn’t even much of an outlier from his previous seasons. He 100% can repeat it and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he repeats it. The only wildcard is his TDs which can fluctuate a bit.

I wouldn’t look at the history of TEs. These new TEs are a different breed. 

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2 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

*Cough Cough* Number 2 overall?  @Gohawks where's the soonest you'd take him in a full ppr league? 

No dude, meaning a 2nd pick in a draft for me.  I'd take a stud rb and kelce on the come back if I was able. 

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11 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

No dude, meaning a 2nd pick in a draft for me.  I'd take a stud rb and kelce on the come back if I was able. 

Okay just wanted to verify.  However, I assume in just about every draft, he's going to be a locked and loaded first rounder coming off the board. 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The dudes a virtual lock for 100 receptions and 1,200 yards. Last season wasn’t even much of an outlier from his previous seasons. He 100% can repeat it and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he repeats it. The only wildcard is his TDs which can fluctuate a bit.

I wouldn’t look at the history of TEs. These new TEs are a different breed. 

No argument re: the numbers he'll put up, but one other season saw the #1 TE put up double the points of #3, and that was Gronk's 2011. And Kelce's season was literally record setting (obv 17 game seasons will render that useless). All I'm saying is his relative value is likely to regress a little bit, not that I'd avoid him. 

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2 minutes ago, trilly said:

No argument re: the numbers he'll put up, but one other season saw the #1 TE put up double the points of #3, and that was Gronk's 2011. And Kelce's season was literally record setting (obv 17 game seasons will render that useless). All I'm saying is his relative value is likely to regress a little bit, not that I'd avoid him. 

Well of course it is likely to regress but that doesn’t change the reality that he’s pretty much a consistent top 5 WR in terms of production at the TE position and still obliterating everyone but a few guys. 

Even in 2019 and 18 he was first by over 20 points. In 2019 he had 50 more points than TE6 and nearly 100 more than TE12. In 2018 he had 50 more points than TE4 and 140 more than TE12.

He’s running circles around most guys every year.

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He should be the consensus #1 non-RB off the board. Only players I would take over him is CMC, Kamara, Cook, Henry and Taylor.

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5 hours ago, Evincar said:

He should be the consensus #1 non-RB off the board. Only players I would take over him is CMC, Kamara, Cook, Henry and Taylor.

If you're picking at, say 1.05, the difference between a guy like Taylor and whatever RB you can get in the 2nd round will be nowhere near as massive as passing on Kelce and settling on a JAG as your TE1. 

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9 hours ago, ajs723 said:

If you're picking at, say 1.05, the difference between a guy like Taylor and whatever RB you can get in the 2nd round will be nowhere near as massive as passing on Kelce and settling on a JAG as your TE1. 

There's actually a lot of debate for all those RBs. Taylor, Chubb, and Jones are all interchangeable and you can maybe even throw in guys like Zeke, Akers, Gibson, and others into that mix. Not trying to be too specific to cause this to turn into a RB argument but point is outside the few top RBs there's a bunch all in that same tier that can be chosen over the others depending on how you feel.

Kelce is the first undisputed TE. You can for all the other ones but no one comes close to him. Again, some will argue that Kittle is close but the injury risk difference makes it not so. 

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8 hours ago, ajs723 said:

If you're picking at, say 1.05, the difference between a guy like Taylor and whatever RB you can get in the 2nd round will be nowhere near as massive as passing on Kelce and settling on a JAG as your TE1. 

That's solely based on last years data though.

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I think CMC, Saquon, Cook and Henry should all be drafted ahead of Kelce. But if you're at the 1.05 and those four are off the board Kelce is the best player available.

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1 minute ago, MingusDew said:

I think CMC, Saquon, Cook and Henry should all be drafted ahead of Kelce. But if you're at the 1.05 and those four are off the board Kelce is the best player available.

I just cant go kelce first pick personally, I'd probably snag Taylor and then try to get Hill or the best WR coming back and then a waller hopefully.  

I think kelce is the perfect wrap pick if doable.  My leagues most likely would fill the first round with rbs and wrs and quickly jump on kelce at the wrap,  that's how I envision it

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6 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I just cant go kelce first pick personally, I'd probably snag Taylor and then try to get Hill or the best WR coming back and then a waller hopefully.  

I think kelce is the perfect wrap pick if doable.  My leagues most likely would fill the first round with rbs and wrs and quickly jump on kelce at the wrap,  that's how I envision it

If you can get him anywhere in the second it's a slam dunk. I pulled that off last year but doubt it's possible this year.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Evincar said:

That's solely based on last years data though.

Except it's not. Last year was just the more extreme end of it.

 

15 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Even in 2019 and 18 he was first by over 20 points. In 2019 he had 50 more points than TE6 and nearly 100 more than TE12. In 2018 he had 50 more points than TE4 and 140 more than TE12.

He’s running circles around most guys every year.

 

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15 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I just cant go kelce first pick personally, I'd probably snag Taylor and then try to get Hill or the best WR coming back and then a waller hopefully.  

I think kelce is the perfect wrap pick if doable.  My leagues most likely would fill the first round with rbs and wrs and quickly jump on kelce at the wrap,  that's how I envision it

It's interesting because it is easier to view your team as worse off not having good RBs or WRs even if your overall PPG production is better due to your TE.

Usually if I take a TE in the first few rounds I tend to go RB and WR for like the next 10 rounds or so and wait on QB. Even going Kelce at 5 can land you something like Kelce, Mixon, Sanders, Godwin, Lockett,  and Edmonds through the first 6. This is 12 man just using FFC ADP but that seems like a pretty good lineup. 

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