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Travis Kelce 2021 Outlook


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I am the 7th pick in my draft.  I have started playing around with taking Kelce at that spot.   I usually have these players fall to ;  Kamara, Taylor, Barkley and Chubb all available at various times during the mock.    Each one has some question marks...  hell.... it seems like all of the top RB's have question marks this year.     I am loving my teams when I go Kelce, Eckler.... and whatever decent RB's are available round 3 for me... hell I am able to grab a top 10 receiver and even grab Carson in round 4.    

 

If Kelce hits the wall this year or suffers an injury i can easily go back to the strategy I used the last 8 years and plug and play TE's week by week.   If Kelce produces like his last 5 years I have a WR1 as my TE... and feel that is a massive advantage.     I think it all comes down to your preference.   Every pick in the first round will have its risks. 

 

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Why would Kelce hit the wall this year?  He is one of the best players in the league, in one of the best offenses, with Mahomes as his QB?

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Why would Kelce hit the wall this year?  He is one of the best players in the league, in one of the best offenses, with Mahomes as his QB?

 

I hear ya and I agree but I do think that out there somewhere there's a percentage that shows at 31 , soon to be 32 , the odds would start to dip if even a little. I just think it'd inevitable one season where everyone thinks damn kelce is coming back to earth, but hopefully like Gates and Tony G he can just end strong and without any major injuries but I do think odds start to slide as his age goes up. Like said he's on an insane offense so hopefully it just keeps going.

I want as much kelce as I can get, just wish he was hanging more around in the 2nd as opposed to being a possible first round snag but I know the importance of having an elite TE as well and how badly it sucks tryin to even get a few points without a guy like kelce or waller etc 

Edited by Savatage79
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2 hours ago, smash10033 said:

I am the 7th pick in my draft.  I have started playing around with taking Kelce at that spot.   I usually have these players fall to ;  Kamara, Taylor, Barkley and Chubb all available at various times during the mock.    Each one has some question marks...  hell.... it seems like all of the top RB's have question marks this year.     I am loving my teams when I go Kelce, Eckler.... and whatever decent RB's are available round 3 for me... hell I am able to grab a top 10 receiver and even grab Carson in round 4.    

 

If Kelce hits the wall this year or suffers an injury i can easily go back to the strategy I used the last 8 years and plug and play TE's week by week.   If Kelce produces like his last 5 years I have a WR1 as my TE... and feel that is a massive advantage.     I think it all comes down to your preference.   Every pick in the first round will have its risks. 

 

Kelce at 7? IDK..  If you're going non-RB - assuming you have a choice between Hill and Adams at WR in my opinion it would seem better to take one of them since they have a higher yardage and TD upside.  I understand that Kelce will be in the TE slot which gives an advantage, but with my 1st round pick, i'd rather target a player with the higher upside for overall production (assuming we're just talking about RB/WR/TE)

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1 hour ago, nk2333 said:

Kelce at 7? IDK..  If you're going non-RB - assuming you have a choice between Hill and Adams at WR in my opinion it would seem better to take one of them since they have a higher yardage and TD upside.  I understand that Kelce will be in the TE slot which gives an advantage, but with my 1st round pick, i'd rather target a player with the higher upside for overall production (assuming we're just talking about RB/WR/TE)

Upside isn't everything though. Adams has only reached 1,000 yards twice while Kelce has done it 5 years in a row. I know Adams has missed time and it's also a silly stat with him because he was 3 yards short twice but you can even extend that to 1,100 yards and Kelce has done it in 4 out of 5 seasons. Part of this is Adams has failed to play 16 games in each of the last 4 seasons. So while sure he has a higher ceiling than Kelce I would say Kelce is a much safer pick.

You can also say a similar thing for Hill. First off, I would say Hill and Kelce have similar upsides. Second off, Hill is also somewhat prone to being banged up. Although he doesn't miss too much time I will admit.

You draft Kelce because he is probably the safest pick there is not because of his massive ceiling (which by the way is still absurdly high by TE standards just maybe not by WR standards). 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Fml espn just moved a bunch of my favorite draft picks way up in their rankings including Kelce. Now he's 4th Wtf! Now I need a really early 1st round pick to get him, aside from McCaffery he's the only player I want in the 1st round ugh

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12 minutes ago, Eazail said:

Fml espn just moved a bunch of my favorite draft picks way up in their rankings including Kelce. Now he's 4th Wtf! Now I need a really early 1st round pick to get him, aside from McCaffery he's the only player I want in the 1st round ugh

Does ESPN's default scoring have a premium for TEs?  I'm on board with using a late 1st round pick on Kelce but not 4th overall.

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11 minutes ago, ZappB said:

Does ESPN's default scoring have a premium for TEs?  I'm on board with using a late 1st round pick on Kelce but not 4th overall.

I noticed this too today. They moved Kelce from 8th to 4th and moved up Robert woods. I did most of my drafts. I'm guessing waller will be moved up too.

Drafting early does have some benefits. Once the industry shills start getting interested there is very little value.

Sermon, Michael Carter, Melvin Gordon, mostert will move up.

Edited by ChrisChinMcCaffrey
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12 hours ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

I noticed this too today. They moved Kelce from 8th to 4th and moved up Robert woods. I did most of my drafts. I'm guessing waller will be moved up too.

Drafting early does have some benefits. Once the industry shills start getting interested there is very little value.

Sermon, Michael Carter, Melvin Gordon, mostert will move up.

Yeah my early drafts are usually better because of that. I know how to find good value before the hype. I can't believe he's at the 4th spot tho, he is my most desired player

 

 

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1 hour ago, Eazail said:

Yeah my early drafts are usually better because of that. I know how to find good value before the hype. I can't believe he's at the 4th spot tho, he is my most desired player

 

 

Sometimes one of your RB3 won't get the majority of work because another rb gets the advantage but you get so many deals.

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Just now, P@ckersFan said:

Why draft Kelce in the mid-first round when you can get Kyle Pitts in the late-first? 😬

Good point Kelce isn't that much better than him right? 😏

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I noticed this super flex and te premium is creeping into normal play.

Most people who draft qbs early and tes early like this because they want to force others who dont draft qbs and tes to draft them early or have an advantage on them if they still do.

Points are becoming cheap. How many points do you need. 

In ppr you can have one reception for minus nine yards and still get plus points.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/16/2021 at 1:29 AM, Eazail said:

 

I always thought his name should have been pronounced how it's spelled

Yeah English is well known for being consistent in that respect ;)

That c in Kelce... You pronounce that the same as one of the C's in "Pacific Ocean", obviously.

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On 7/15/2021 at 10:14 PM, Nap Time said:

This is like when Neil Peart died and suddenly they changed it from "purt" to "peert".

 

Wait...who's his backup?   What round?   Sleeper?

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On 7/30/2021 at 10:23 PM, K197040 said:

Wait...who's his backup?   What round?   Sleeper?

Hall of Famer, best hands in the business, great Grace under Pressure. Was known for his Rush but played Y, Y and Z all day long.

Talk about a tight end... It didn't get much tighter than Neil Peart. RIP legend.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
4 hours ago, beerfish said:

He's ranked as #6 on ESPN right now and I think that's right where I'm taking him.

This dude is an absolute beast but his ADP is insane to me.  I get that taking him gives you a massive positional advantage every week but why not wait till round 3 and take Waller if you are super high on getting a top tier TE?

Kelce was being drafted in the late 2nd-3rd round of drafts last year and provided a nice ROI for the entire season.  Now you have to commit a top 8 pick if you want him.  I know he has been incredibly consistent and has dodged the Injury Bug but another year older and another deep playoff run later and he's going almost 2 rounds higher than he was last year???  I can't even get myself to consider doing that when I can get Waller where you could get Kelce last year. 

IMO (and I fully expect to get roasted for this) he is being way over drafted and shouldn't even be considered until the the 2nd round.  He had an amazing season last year but taking him that high, he MUST repeat that production to give you that same ROI and instead you are risking your 1st round pick instead of a late 2nd or 3rd.  

If CEH emerges and the newly formed Chiefs OL actually figure out how to run the ball this year,  I think there is zero chance he repeats his 2020 performance.  Not to mention that if he goes down you have zero ability to replace that production and your season will be over. 

Riskiest guy on the board IMO based off where he is being drafted. Roast me!

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