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Jarred Kelenic 2021 Outlook


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3 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

I think it speaks volumes that the org is willing to bring him up shortly after he failed not long ago as a key young player to their rebuild

Its not just that, but where they are currently in the chase. To the surprise of many, they're playing over .500 and can potentially play spoiler for some teams, maybe even a WC could happen in some alternate timeline where COVID sidelines a few teams for weeks. Bottom line, this is as close to a playoff chase and meaningful games this late in the season that the Mariners have seen in years, so throwing him out there now does speak volumes. I am not sure how much of a difference maker he can be in fantasy leagues this season, and I suspect people will get antsy if he struggles again. Its also going to depress the already marginal values of guys like Fraley, Moore, so this is a mixed bag for fantasy. 

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18 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

He was on our WW so I snagged him.  Kid oozes talent - I think it speaks volumes that the org is willing to bring him up shortly after he failed not long ago as a key young player to their rebuild.  

Same here.  He was on the wire in one league.   Upside lotto tickets at this point in the season are always nice to roll the dice on.  Especially when they're free.

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1 minute ago, jmcampbe11 said:

solid scouting report my dude!

 

Eyes do not lie, he looks over matched and does not belong, right now at least. Take off you man crush goggles and see him as just another MLB player

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4 minutes ago, rotoguy74 said:

 

Eyes do not lie, he looks over matched and does not belong, right now at least. Take off you man crush goggles and see him as just another MLB player

...remember the whole what color is the dress thing from 2015? 

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On 7/19/2021 at 9:05 AM, rotoguy74 said:

 

Eyes do not lie, he looks over matched and does not belong, right now at least. Take off you man crush goggles and see him as just another MLB player

I'll keep an open mind about Kelenic next year in drafts assuming he drops outside the top 200 (which I expect he will), but I have less than zero interest in Kelenic this year, even in one 16 team league where he's currently sitting on the waiver wire.  Yes, Kelenic has some speed and power and he could potentially get you 5 SBs and 5 HRs the rest of the season (assuming he doesn't get sent back down), but I don't think that's worth the likely sub .200 average.  Watching him, he's clearly not ready for major league pitching

Rookie hitters are often overmatched their first season (much moreso than rookie pitchers) and then show big improvement their second season.  Look at Mike Trout and Aaron Judge for example.  I'm not saying I expect Kelenic to do what those guys did their second season, just that I think he could be a decent value if he drops outside the top 200 in drafts next year.  (I think Kelenic will still struggle with BA next year, but I could see something like .230, 20 HR, 20 SB next season),

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12 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

I'll keep an open mind about Kelenic next year in drafts assuming he drops outside the top 200 (which I expect he will), but I have less than zero interest in Kelenic this year, even in one 16 team league where he's currently sitting on the waiver wire.  Yes, Kelenic has some speed and power and he could potentially get you 5 SBs and 5 HRs the rest of the season (assuming he doesn't get sent back down), but I don't think that's worth the likely sub .200 average.  Watching him, he's clearly not ready for major league pitching

Rookie hitters are often overmatched their first season (much moreso than rookie pitchers) and then show big improvement their second season.  Look at Mike Trout and Aaron Judge for example.  I'm not saying I expect Kelenic to do what those guys did their second season, just that I think he could be a decent value if he drops outside the top 200 in drafts next year.  (I think Kelenic will still struggle with BA next year, but I could see something like .230, 20 HR, 20 SB next season),

I always worry about AAA hitters who play in the PCL.  Maybe it's unfair, but it's hard to trust the numbers because of how artificially inflated hitting in that league is.  I picked up Kelenic for free but I have to say I'm entirely skeptical of him being fantasy relevant this year.  The "eye test" is something many shun, but when a guy struggles to make contact and looks very much overmatched, it's hard not to ignore what those eyes are telling us.  

I'm going to hold for now, cuz prospects are genuine lottery tickets.  The switch can sometimes go on and him having both speed and power allows for a longer leesh than most.  Hopefully my eyes are wrong over the next week or two.

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Going to lose his NA eligibility this week while playing like complete a** his entire callup minus one game or so. Dynasty owner with a limited amount of keepers nightmare. Going to be really hard to justify giving him a keeper slot if he doesn't show any signs of life.

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I watched his ABs in yesterdays games and in todays first AB....

From my point of view, the problem is simple. He's either not being coached correctly or he's getting too much into his own head.

He's having the very same problem all the Yankees hitters have had this entire season. He's guessing at every pitch instead of using his instincts. You can see it almost every AB...He's guessing on whether they're going to throw him a breaking ball or slider as opposed to a fastball. The problem is that he's guessing incorrectly almost every time.

Like today's first AB....they went after him hard yesterday with breaking balls and sliders, pitches where the bottoms fell out....In a 3-2 count today, he assumed Gomber was going to throw him another one, and Gomber basically told his catcher, "I'm throwing a fastball right down the middle".....

And Kelenic (guessing COMPLETELY WRONG), decided that he just wasn't going to swing at anything assuming it was going to be a slider or breaking ball that would drop out of the zone...and Gomber through it dead center of the plate and caught Kelenic straight looking.

Now whether SEA coaching staff is training him or telling him to "not swing at certain things" or whether it's Kelenic himself getting into his own head....I think he just needs to not worry about striking out as much, and just go for the pitches he knows he can hit. The guys a great hitter, but right now, it's a guessing game, and he's losing the guessing game.

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22 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

I watched his ABs in yesterdays games and in todays first AB....

From my point of view, the problem is simple. He's either not being coached correctly or he's getting too much into his own head.

He's having the very same problem all the Yankees hitters have had this entire season. He's guessing at every pitch instead of using his instincts. You can see it almost every AB...He's guessing on whether they're going to throw him a breaking ball or slider as opposed to a fastball. The problem is that he's guessing incorrectly almost every time.

Like today's first AB....they went after him hard yesterday with breaking balls and sliders, pitches where the bottoms fell out....In a 3-2 count today, he assumed Gomber was going to throw him another one, and Gomber basically told his catcher, "I'm throwing a fastball right down the middle".....

And Kelenic (guessing COMPLETELY WRONG), decided that he just wasn't going to swing at anything assuming it was going to be a slider or breaking ball that would drop out of the zone...and Gomber through it dead center of the plate and caught Kelenic straight looking.

Now whether SEA coaching staff is training him or telling him to "not swing at certain things" or whether it's Kelenic himself getting into his own head....I think he just needs to not worry about striking out as much, and just go for the pitches he knows he can hit. The guys a great hitter, but right now, it's a guessing game, and he's losing the guessing game.

Agreed.  He's beyond tentative.  And when he guesses, he's always wrong.  I wouldn't go to Vegas, with this guy.  Not one of his at bats, look natural or instinctual.  They all look like he's bound by some hidden/restrictive force.  He never looks confident, at the plate.

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7 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

Agreed.  He's beyond tentative.  And when he guesses, he's always wrong.  I wouldn't go to Vegas, with this guy.  Not one of his at bats, look natural or instinctual.  They all look like he's bound by some hidden/restrictive force.  He never looks confident, at the plate.

are you adding all the commas for dramatic effect or something?

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10 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

Agreed.  He's beyond tentative.  And when he guesses, he's always wrong.  I wouldn't go to Vegas, with this guy.  Not one of his at bats, look natural or instinctual.  They all look like he's bound by some hidden/restrictive force.  He never looks confident, at the plate.

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1 hour ago, Goatstain3 said:

Agreed.  He's beyond tentative.  And when he guesses, he's always wrong.  I wouldn't go to Vegas, with this guy.  Not one of his at bats, look natural or instinctual.  They all look like he's bound by some hidden/restrictive force.  He never looks confident, at the plate.

Yeah, part of me thinks that the coaching staff has a great deal to do with this...I've followed Kelenic for a while now and he's a great hitter. He's got some swing and miss in him....but like you said, he doesn't look comfortable up there. He takes a lot of deep breaths when he steps out of the batters box, and constantly looks like he's guessing.

To his credit, he's good enough to catch up to a lot of the pitches he guesses wrong on....but they always result in him fouling them off. He's definitely up there protecting against certain pitches. And there seems to be a concerned effort on his part to try and lay off non-fastball pitches.

He didn't look overpowered or overmatched in his first 5-6 games at the big league level...it was only after some of his hard-hit balls didn't fall that he started pressing (which ultimately led to his 0-35 slump or w/e it was).

He hits fastballs well. His primary concern right now is him trying to pounce on the off-speed stuff (curveballs) and pitches that look in the zone, but quickly fall out of zone..

If I were the coaching staff, I would visit the film room daily and see what it is that pitchers are attacking him with every single game and to really locate and lock in what is giving him the biggest problems.

But I think the biggest thing (from my standpoint) is that he needs to focus on the pitches that he wants to hit. It's like Mookie Betts....GREAT FASTBALL HITTER.....Mediocre on other pitches like Sliders and off-speed stuff....but he knows if someone throws him what he's great at....he's going to attack it.

I think it will get figured out at some point this year...but most of the time, he's clearly guessing every single pitch.

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7 hours ago, dicka24 said:

I always worry about AAA hitters who play in the PCL.  Maybe it's unfair, but it's hard to trust the numbers because of how artificially inflated hitting in that league is.  I picked up Kelenic for free but I have to say I'm entirely skeptical of him being fantasy relevant this year.  The "eye test" is something many shun, but when a guy struggles to make contact and looks very much overmatched, it's hard not to ignore what those eyes are telling us.  

I'm going to hold for now, cuz prospects are genuine lottery tickets.  The switch can sometimes go on and him having both speed and power allows for a longer leesh than most.  Hopefully my eyes are wrong over the next week or two.

I hear you about picking up Kelenic for free since prospects are genuine lottery tickets.  However, if you're starting him, he's doing a ton of damage to your fantasy team's batting average (Kelenic has been by far the single worst hitter in all of baseball this year) and if you have him riding your bench, then you're missing out on an roster spot that you could be using to accumulate some counting stats.

Like I said in my previous post, I'll keep an open mind on Kelenic next year in drafts if his ADP is outside the top 200, but for this year you couldn't possibly pay me enough money to roster him even in deep leagues.

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Mariners have the worst batting average in the MLB and are among the worst in strikeouts.

So it’s not hard to see how coaching can be detrimental. Almost every young guy they call up this year can’t hit for ****. Something in how they teach these guys clearly isn’t working.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Mariners have the worst batting average in the MLB and are among the worst in strikeouts.

So it’s not hard to see how coaching can be detrimental. Almost every young guy they call up this year can’t hit for ****. Something in how they teach these guys clearly isn’t working.

Agree with this completely...and not just for prospects either. There are only 6 teams out of 30 that have a team BA above .250 BA.

Over half the league is hitting .240 BA or below, and the Mariners are the lowest, at .219 BA.

Compare that to even 4 years ago (2017), 20 of the 30 MLB teams hit .250 BA or higher.

Hitting definitely is a league-wide issue right now. And even more so on the Seattle Mariners.

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It's amazing, but Kelenic's has managed to be even worse in his second stint than he was in his first.  3 for 26, all singles, with 13 strikeouts and only 1 walk.  Just totally not ready by major league pitching right now.

Overall, his slash is .101/.176/.174.  He's literally been the worst hitter in all of baseball this year.  Even most pitchers hit better than that.  You couldn't possibly pay me enough money to roster Kelenic in redraft leagues.  In fact, it's difficult to think of a player I'd less rather start than Kelenic because he's going to do a ton of damage to your team's batting average and contirbute almost nothing in the counting stats.

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Drop city.  If he were remotely productive or putting the ball in play and maybe just a bit unlucky then fine.  He's striking out in 50% of his ABs and has ZERO power.  He's just not worth restoring at this point.

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The Mariner organization preaches patience at the plate. They want their hitters to see a lot of pitches and wear out the opposing pitcher. That's all fine and dandy, but you can't fit every hitter into the same box. Some hitters are naturally more aggressive and others more patient. I would suspect that Kelenic is trying too hard to be what the Ms want, as opposed to being what he is. Kelenic is not an undisciplined hitter, but he needs to feel free to jump on a pitch he likes early in the count.

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