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Jarred Kelenic 2021 Outlook


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8 hours ago, pan55 said:

The Mariner organization preaches patience at the plate. They want their hitters to see a lot of pitches and wear out the opposing pitcher. That's all fine and dandy, but you can't fit every hitter into the same box. Some hitters are naturally more aggressive and others more patient. I would suspect that Kelenic is trying too hard to be what the Ms want, as opposed to being what he is. Kelenic is not an undisciplined hitter, but he needs to feel free to jump on a pitch he likes early in the count.

That’s not his problem though. His problem is swinging at sliders 5 feet off the plate. 

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He's had a pulse over this last week. 

 

Anyone think he's about to heat up at all  or he just run into some terrible pitching ? 

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48 minutes ago, tonywow said:

He's had a pulse over this last week. 

 

Anyone think he's about to heat up at all  or he just run into some terrible pitching ? 

He made some swing and stance adjustments a few days ago and the early results are very encouraging (3 walks and only 2 strikeouts in the 16 plate appearances since).  Impatient owners that dropped recently are going to regret it soon, imo.

 

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55 minutes ago, tonywow said:

He's had a pulse over this last week. 

 

Anyone think he's about to heat up at all  or he just run into some terrible pitching ? 

Hope so.

he mentioned he has changed his stance to recognize breaking balls better. Gingers crossed

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I didn't know he made an adjustment to his swing. He wasn't really on my radar of FA adds to end the week, but I don't want to be the shmuck that leaves him on the wire and then sees him get red hot for someone else. Still not sure how convinced it's take off time from here on out, but might as well give him a go for a week or two. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pretty fitting that his biggest moment so far this season came on a 4-pitch bases loaded walk to win the game last night. It isn't emblematic of his profile, just ironic since he hasn't done much by swinging the bat. I fully realize in the bases loaded scenario, unless he hits a Grand Slam, he's only getting 1 RBI every time he gets on base, so I'm not really complaining. Good for him. He's producing slightly better lately, and there's still an outside chance things start to click in the final few weeks. Not holding out much hope, though. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Breaking News: another Mariner BUST prospect.  Another silver sombrero.  Shoved so far down the lineup he couldn’t get another golden sombrero.  Have to hope the Mariners don’t ruin him like they have with the 30+ busts that have come before him.  Bad habits are piling up.  

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How much of his struggles can be attributed to the Mariners organization at the MLB level? We often talk about the responsibility of the org to just give the opportunity (which Kelenic hasn't seized) but do they take blame for him to continue to descend into sucking?

 

 

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5 hours ago, 5catstud said:

How much of his struggles can be attributed to the Mariners organization at the MLB level? We often talk about the responsibility of the org to just give the opportunity (which Kelenic hasn't seized) but do they take blame for him to continue to descend into sucking?

 

 

Kelenic always had legit swing and miss issues, just like Jo Adell before him, who also has sucked yet again in his second call up to the majors, just like I said he would. These guys were never sure fire stars with elite hitting ability and dominantly low k-rate like a Wander Franco. Not surprised at all he’s struggled, although this has been really bad.

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4 hours ago, killa3312 said:

Kelenic always had legit swing and miss issues, just like Jo Adell before him, who also has sucked yet again in his second call up to the majors, just like I said he would. These guys were never sure fire stars with elite hitting ability and dominantly low k-rate like a Wander Franco. Not surprised at all he’s struggled, although this has been really bad.

Great point actually.  I don’t see how this guy was hyped?  25% K rate in A+ ball.  Then gets promoted and hits .250 in AA before minor league baseball season canceled in 2020.  Unsustainable .360+ BABIP 2 years in minors also.  His plate coverage is absolutely atrocious.  Teams are attacking him same way with off speed off plate and fastballs up and he can’t touch it.  His power speed combo will always be tantalizing to us in fantasy.  But I have serious concerns where the average lands on an annual basis.  There’s potential for some very ugly average on years where he isn’t having fluke BABIP seasons given his swing and miss issues and ball in play predicability.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Even with his struggles and demotion over the summer, he’s still on pace for 26 HR and 11 SB with his current numbers.

If he can build off what he’s done in the second half, and have a little better BABIP luck too, he could/should be primed for a breakout season.

 

Here are his stats since August 1st:

51 games

27 Runs (86 full-season pace)

11 HR (35 full-season pace)

26 RBI (83 full-season pace)

3 SB (10 full-season pace)

.222 Average with an unlucky .248 BABIP

25.9% K rate

10.1% BB rate

 

 

A lot of people are going to (wrongfully) ignore him next spring. 

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