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On 5/12/2021 at 3:26 PM, ty5592 said:

Ceiling this year is SP3 (top 36) imo.  I've added in as shallow as 10 team leagues.  He reminds me of deGrom as a rookie

As a Mariners fan, I'd like for this to be accurate, but deGrom had an amazing rookie season.  There's little chance he's that.

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My first thought watching him tonight was he looks like Matthew Lillard. Something to just keep in mind when projecting him for fantasy purposes this season and beyond  

Another solid outing 6 2/3 innings 1 run 4 hits 1 walk 6 k's 90 pitches. Last 4 starts 21 2/3 innings 2.49 era 0.97 whip (15 hits 6 walks) 22 k's.  I'm liking what I'm seeing. 

If you want an actual example of behind-the-woodshed, check out Castillo’s start tonight. The kid looked really impressive - even his line looked good.  No walks, one more hit than IP, one more K

Posted Images

So I've seen some comparisons thrown out there like Degrom, Aaron Nola, and Tyler Glasnow.  So for comparison sake I've compiled the stat lines of each of these pitcher's first games for everyone:

Degrom against NYY 2014:

2029337324_Degrom2014NYY.PNG.dd5d721b2f9d9de455b970ef9bf156d5.PNG

Nola against TBR 2015:

1961634813_AaronNola2015TBR.PNG.14224de8cc5a09697745cb8d205b0d73.PNG

Glasnow against STL 2016:

481746208_TylerGlasnow2016STL.PNG.96ae8ff6c535ddb63f1accaf879de87e.PNG

Logan Gilbert against CLE 2021:

1906290640_LoganGilbert.PNG.847b1b25e0a3bd94e7c9818129d6d2f1.PNG

 

Now you might be asking to yourself, "Oh great Gumbercules what have you divined from this information?".  And I would say....

 

Nothing absolutely nothing. 

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15 hours ago, Blood Brother said:

My first thought watching him tonight was he looks like Matthew Lillard. Something to just keep in mind when projecting him for fantasy purposes this season and beyond

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Well played.  If I could figure out how to post pictures, I would have done a Zac Gallen/Kyle Mooney by now.  That one is striking.

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I have stock in Gilbert so I do have a horse in the race but this is what I gleaned from his first start.....

1. He has great control but early in the game (probably because of adrenalin) he couldn't keep the ball down in the zone. He left way too many pitches belt high over the middle of the plate. He did start looking better towards the 3/4 inning when he got the ball down.

 

2. He fast ball looks a little flat. Someone mentioned degrom earlier but degrom's fastball has great action where Gilbert's is lacking a bit of movement. Pretty straight and flat. Good velo and looks like he can locate well so it should still be a + pitch but maybe not as + as I was hoping.

 

I think he can be really productive but a lot will have to go right and he will have to spot the ball really well. He doesn't have the aresenal (yet) to make big mistakes like he did yesterday and not get hammered.

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5 hours ago, nittanychris said:

If you’re cool with a 9.00 ERA, go for it. The point remains, while very talented, there will be big bumps in the road this season. 

I’m cool with it.

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5 hours ago, Maitiu said:

Or maybe the managers wanted to see what the kid could do. I don't see the harm in finding out in May rather than September.

As if September matters to the Mariners

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Lots of people jumping off the wagon after one start where he looked pretty good for a 1st appearance as a rookie are going to be kicking themselves in a month from now. I mean the young buck didn’t even throw his changeup which is one of his out pitches.  The slider looked pretty wicked even when he missed they swing through it besides the Reyes homer off the hanger.  I took way more positives then negatives from his start that’s all I’m gonna say 

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2 hours ago, bluntbros said:

Lance is correct on his analysis. Gilbert needs to hide some “sticky” in his glove to keep up with the elites.

You mean all the elites and then like 90% of everyone else?

He will get there. He looked nervous enough I’m sure having some sticky on his hat wouldn’t help that.

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41 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

who was the last sp prospect to be good when called up? wacca jo fer cant really think of any recently. there has to be some

Ian Anderson was pretty dope - that was (calculating) less than a year ago.

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39 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Ian Anderson was pretty dope - that was (calculating) less than a year ago.

yea forgot about walker and paddack. but still not very often.

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea forgot about walker and paddack. but still not very often.

True - not an every-day occurrence.

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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

Ian Anderson was pretty dope - that was (calculating) less than a year ago.

DeGrom? Fulmer? Verlander? Sixto? Jack Flaherty? Walker Buehler ... there’s a lot more 

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I dropped him. After watching both his starts, I'm not impressed at all. He is extremely hittable. So many fastballs right down the middle. Straight fastballs at 94 mph. His slider last night hit the ground in front of the plate most of the time. I can see he has talent, but he doesn't have the experience to know when to throw what, in my opinion. I'll watch him on the WW, but I can't hold him, and don't want to.

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I got some sarcastic responses earlier in this thread when I mentioned the common unpredictability of even high end rookie SPs. Any rookie SP excelling immediately is the exception, not the rule, as Gilbert has shown yet again. Better to speculate on a young gun in their second full season.

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1 hour ago, BuraddoRun said:

I dropped him. After watching both his starts, I'm not impressed at all. He is extremely hittable. So many fastballs right down the middle. Straight fastballs at 94 mph. His slider last night hit the ground in front of the plate most of the time. I can see he has talent, but he doesn't have the experience to know when to throw what, in my opinion. I'll watch him on the WW, but I can't hold him, and don't want to.

Same.  Fastball was very hittable, didn't seem to get many swings and misses with it.  Slider was spiked into the ground every time, seemed to have a decent curve but didn't like to throw it.  Easy cut after watching last night's game.

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10 hours ago, mevins31 said:

DeGrom? Fulmer? Verlander? Sixto? Jack Flaherty? Walker Buehler ... there’s a lot more 

nice were almost to 10 rookie sp spanning a decade+

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5 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

nice were almost to 10 rookie sp spanning a decade+

ROY Top 5 Each League Pitchers only, how they fared at start of career:


Dustin May 2020 bumpy 2019 before demoted to bullpen where he dominated 1.0ip games then mostly strong 2020

Mike Soroka 2019 up and down 2018 before strong 2019 before fading down the stretch. 

John Means 2019 Destroyed in 1 2018 cup of coffee game. Took awhile to ramp up before closing out strong. 

Ryan Yarborough (dont laugh 16-6 that year) 2018

Bueler and Flaherty 2018

Buehler was a crappy reliever in 2017, then up and down but overall good in 2018. Flaherty had a nasty cup of coffee with a 6+ era in 2017 then a mostly solid 2018. 

Luis Castillo 2017 Really consistent, highest ER was 4 this season. 

Kenta Maeda 2016 not true rookie

Jon Gray 2016–beaten up in 3 of first 6 starts

Steven Matz 2016–excellent really, probably the best of all these true rookies.

Edwin Diaz 2016 not looking at rp

Fulmer 2016–Smacked around first 5 starts basically

 

This isnt looking into top prospects who struggled so much they didnt make their years ROY top 5. But it seems even the best struggle at first and talent often wins out. 

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9 hours ago, nittanychris said:

I got some sarcastic responses earlier in this thread when I mentioned the common unpredictability of even high end rookie SPs. Any rookie SP excelling immediately is the exception, not the rule, as Gilbert has shown yet again. Better to speculate on a young gun in their second full season.

I don’t know to whom you are referring - for me, my comment had to do with your “to the woodshed” comment that just wasn’t true.  But if you’re here to repeat the axiom that rookie SPs generally struggle and take that as reason for a victory lap, the racetrack is all yours!

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