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Logan Gilbert 2021 Outlook


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  • 2 weeks later...
25 minutes ago, Words said:

He dropped his ERA to 3.54 and his WHIP to 0.97, which is even more impressive when you consider how poorly he pitched in his first two starts. 

2.70 era 0.88 whip if you take away his first two starts and the 2 innings against the white sox. 

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13 minutes ago, ty5592 said:

2.70 era 0.88 whip if you take away his first two starts and the 2 innings against the white sox. 

If you take away all his bad innings he's the best pitcher in baseball!

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25 minutes ago, cs3 said:

If you take away all his bad innings he's the best pitcher in baseball!

Very funny except in this case makes no sense.

If you followed Gilbert since the start you’d know he was limited his first two games not only in terms of pitch count but pitch selection. He was settling in and clearly a bit nervous. It was his first two starts in the MLB it’s not removing some random starts.

Also in those two White Sox innings he allowed zero runs. 
 

0/10 post.

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Very funny except in this case makes no sense.

If you followed Gilbert since the start you’d know he was limited his first two games not only in terms of pitch count but pitch selection. He was settling in and clearly a bit nervous. It was his first two starts in the MLB it’s not removing some random starts.

Also in those two White Sox innings he allowed zero runs. 
 

0/10 post.

I'm not sure what the point was of taking out those two innings against the White Sox, but there is value in looking at his numbers after those two starts. He was clearly unsettled in those two games, but he has been much better since.

Gilbert has had some shaky outings and I'm sure he will have more, but there are some very positive signs. 

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What a gem. Really impressed with how he responded after his first two starts. The fact that he is the one seemingly adjusting well to the league instead of the other way round is also a good sign for his future. Together with his pedigree of course. Barring injuries the Mariners might finally have that future young ace (which is one area they needed to strengthen badly. Overall bright outlook for the organization with 2 of the top 5 prospects in baseball, or 3 of the top 20 belonging to them. Only team in a better position probably is Tampa Bay)

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22 minutes ago, Words said:

I'm not sure what the point was of taking out those two innings against the White Sox, but there is value in looking at his numbers after those two starts. He was clearly unsettled in those two games, but he has been much better since.

Gilbert has had some shaky outings and I'm sure he will have more, but there are some very positive signs. 

I don’t get taking those out either. He was also dealing in that game if there was no rain delay his ERA would be even lower.

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Posted (edited)

He’s better than DeGrom.

/thread

Honestly he looks as advertised.  But he’s still leaving too many mistake pitches right over the heart of the zone that a competent lineup would punish him for.  He vacillates throughout each outing between pinpoint control and missing his spots badly.

Edited by BMcP
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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He’s better than DeGrom.

/thread

Honestly he looks as advertised.  But he’s still leaving too many mistake pitches right over the heart of the zone that a competent lineup would punish him for.  He vacillates throughout each outing between pinpoint control and missing his spots badly.

Yeah, rookie pitchers usually do. 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

He’s better than DeGrom.

/thread

Honestly he looks as advertised.  But he’s still leaving too many mistake pitches right over the heart of the zone that a competent lineup would punish him for.  He vacillates throughout each outing between pinpoint control and missing his spots badly.

Just the highlights from today's game showed that. He missed badly with some pitches that were turned into outs. Still, he's not walking batters, he is getting swinging strikes and strikeouts. There are some positive metrics backing up the raw numbers. 

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1 minute ago, Words said:

Just the highlights from today's game showed that. He missed badly with some pitches that were turned into outs. Still, he's not walking batters, he is getting swinging strikes and strikeouts. There are some positive metrics backing up the raw numbers. 

He’s definitely missing inside the zone - which is consistent with his approach of walking very few.  He relies more on velo, location and extension than on any crazy horizontal/vertical movement on his heater.  He’s definitely on an upswing - I just wanted to caution against expecting these results against a non-awful lineup.

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I had eyes on his start yesterday and much of what I saw is backed up by the charts, his extension is incredible and it allows the FA to 'play-up' as it simply sneaks up on hitters and he uses his body/front shoulder in such a manner (just prior to release) that it only exacerbates it's 'sneakiness'...but there is plenty of heat on it too, and a bunch of vertical action. It is borderline elite already, though I do have sincere concerns about his mechanics leading to issues down the line (but shoot, you can say that about every pitcher). He sat 96 MPH yesterday and hit 99, firing up 65 with 9 called strikes and 7 whiffs.

The only other real secondary currently is the slide piece. It is also hovering around the elite area imo. Double actions with more complimentary vertical tilt. Sits low at 82-84 MPH. He tossed up 32, with 2 called strikes and a lovely 11 whiffers on it.

His other 6 pitches were split between the change and curve and generated zero strikes or whiffs and had about no redeeming qualities to them (at least on this day). I did see at least 3-5 pitches, esp later in the outing, that the blue missed strikes on...and as a few posters stated plenty of misses by him over the heart of the dish--the yanks simply did not make him pay, and you can subjectively spin that either way. For the betterment of his development, the M's need to get him to hone in these other secondaries.

There is plenty to like here, I am not trying to be overly negative...he is a great young arm and like any young arm he needs a bunch of growth yet.

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45 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I had eyes on his start yesterday and much of what I saw is backed up by the charts, his extension is incredible and it allows the FA to 'play-up' as it simply sneaks up on hitters and he uses his body/front shoulder in such a manner (just prior to release) that it only exacerbates it's 'sneakiness'...but there is plenty of heat on it too, and a bunch of vertical action. It is borderline elite already, though I do have sincere concerns about his mechanics leading to issues down the line (but shoot, you can say that about every pitcher). He sat 96 MPH yesterday and hit 99, firing up 65 with 9 called strikes and 7 whiffs.

The only other real secondary currently is the slide piece. It is also hovering around the elite area imo. Double actions with more complimentary vertical tilt. Sits low at 82-84 MPH. He tossed up 32, with 2 called strikes and a lovely 11 whiffers on it.

His other 6 pitches were split between the change and curve and generated zero strikes or whiffs and had about no redeeming qualities to them (at least on this day). I did see at least 3-5 pitches, esp later in the outing, that the blue missed strikes on...and as a few posters stated plenty of misses by him over the heart of the dish--the yanks simply did not make him pay, and you can subjectively spin that either way. For the betterment of his development, the M's need to get him to hone in these other secondaries.

There is plenty to like here, I am not trying to be overly negative...he is a great young arm and like any young arm he needs a bunch of growth yet.

The changeup is the pitch he hasn't had as much success with in the majors as he did in the minors. He may just need to learn to trust it more against major-league hitters. If I remember correctly, the curve was never really a plus pitch for him. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Rough stretch 5 of his last 6 have been poor starts but 4 of them were against tough teams (Oakland, Tampa, Toronto Houston) with a clunker against Texas thrown in. He should be lined up to face Kansas City at home next followed by Arizona twice, Kansas City, Oakland or the Angels, and finally Oakland or the angels again. Hoping he can put together a strong six starts to close out the year. It’s certainly doable with that schedule. 

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2 hours ago, ty5592 said:

Rough stretch 5 of his last 6 have been poor starts but 4 of them were against tough teams (Oakland, Tampa, Toronto Houston) with a clunker against Texas thrown in. He should be lined up to face Kansas City at home next followed by Arizona twice, Kansas City, Oakland or the Angels, and finally Oakland or the angels again. Hoping he can put together a strong six starts to close out the year. It’s certainly doable with that schedule. 

He doesn't get Arizona twice. He gets the Astros twice.

I'm dropping

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Well, he sucks, but I’ll be monitoring him next year in any case.  He’s really been getting his a** reamed, but whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.  I think Dean Caruso said that in the movie Kiss Of Death.  The one where Nicholas Cage was injecting steroids in his a** like the Bash Brothers under the tutelage of Tony LaRussa.  

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