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Courtland Sutton 2021 Outlook


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Didn't see a 2021 thread but apologies if I missed it.

What are we thinking for Sutton in 2021? Putting his lost season aside, in 2019 he had 72 receptions on 124 targets for 1112 yards and 6 TDs. He finished as the WR19 in 0.5 PPR. That was before the Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy and it was also Fant's rookie season. Drew Lock, unfortunately, does not seem to have progressed much, if at all, while Sutton has been out of the game.

I'm pretty high on Sutton and will be very happy drafting him as my WR2. He was the clear alpha in 2019 and I think he takes that crown back in 2021. He's much like Scary Terry in that a QB upgrade would probably vault him into WR1 territory.

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I think C.SUTT IS A HIGH END WR2 without Rodgers and a steal at his current value. I hope Rodgers doesn't get traded to Denver so that his ADP stays similar to what it is now.

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He proved he could ball with the corpse of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen and Lock in 2019. Some more target competition now but he's a near elite talent in my view and should be set for low WR2 numbers (WR 20-24) even Lock

I do think Bridgewater would concern me more than Lock with how risk averse he is

Now with Rodgers--we are talking a ceiling of top 5 WR being well within reach

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I'm fading him.

<12 months post-ACL + Drew Lock + emergence of Jerry Jeudy = someone else in my league can have him.

I will revisit this when ARod is traded to Denver but for now, I wish him well this season, I won't be part of this train.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7607798/

The rate of RTP after ACLR for football players was 67.2% (1249/1859), and the mean time to return was 11.6 months (range, 35.8-55.8 weeks). Although considerable heterogeneity existed in the study design and outcomes measured, in general, a majority of football players experienced greater declines from their preinjury performance level than controls over the same time period.

(yes yes Peterson, A, et al. "Destruction Of The NFL: A Case Study", 2012. A clear outlier.)

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15 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

I'm fading him.

<12 months post-ACL + Drew Lock + emergence of Jerry Jeudy = someone else in my league can have him.

I will revisit this when ARod is traded to Denver but for now, I wish him well this season, I won't be part of this train.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7607798/

The rate of RTP after ACLR for football players was 67.2% (1249/1859), and the mean time to return was 11.6 months (range, 35.8-55.8 weeks). Although considerable heterogeneity existed in the study design and outcomes measured, in general, a majority of football players experienced greater declines from their preinjury performance level than controls over the same time period.

(yes yes Peterson, A, et al. "Destruction Of The NFL: A Case Study", 2012. A clear outlier.)

Oh no an ACL

If this was 1963 I'd be worried (or if it was an achilles)

"Emergence of Jerry Jeudy"...so the 6th best rookie WR last year or a guy who made a pro Bowl and had 1100 yards with atrocious QBs his second year

Drew Lock is a valid concern though

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Jeudy is not as talented as Sutton and won’t be a dominant receiver on the team until Sutton is gone. Of that I’m fairly confident. 
 

Lock is the problem. But hell Scary Terry was a WR2 with atrocious QB play last year and Sutton has proven he can turn trash to gold before. 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Oh no an ACL

If this was 1963 I'd be worried (or if it was an achilles)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6931147/

Compared with the study by Shelbourne et al, the present study demonstrates a more than 2 times increased risk of subsequent ACL injury in NFL players after prior successful ACL reconstruction and return to play

 

I'm just pointing out that players very early post-ACL are sitting ducks to re-do the injury.

Does that affect Sutton's long-term outlook? Not overly. Do I want him the season immediately following a major injury? Also not overly. ACL injuries are underestimated as we see all these "superhero" stories of people returning to sport in a year. Anecdata here, but I did mine 10 years ago and I didn't feel a return to normal for 24 months. I think these athletes are pushed to return and heavily underdone in terms of VMO strength and proprioception. So look, if Sutton is your cup of tea, go nuts. But my opinion (and I've tried to highlight the literature on the topic) is that first season post-ACL repair is a massive red flag - particularly for a WR who needs to make cuts - and there are other guys I'll take at his ADP without the injury risk.

Edited by DeliciousGravy
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15 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6931147/

Compared with the study by Shelbourne et al, the present study demonstrates a more than 2 times increased risk of subsequent ACL injury in NFL players after prior successful ACL reconstruction and return to play

 

I'm just pointing out that players very early post-ACL are sitting ducks to re-do the injury.

Does that affect Sutton's long-term outlook? Not overly. Do I want him the season immediately following a major injury? Also not overly. ACL injuries are underestimated as we see all these "superhero" stories of people returning to sport in a year. Anecdata here, but I did mine 10 years ago and I didn't feel a return to normal for 24 months. I think these athletes are pushed to return and heavily underdone in terms of VMO strength and proprioception. So look, if Sutton is your cup of tea, go nuts. But my opinion (and I've tried to highlight the literature on the topic) is that first season post-ACL repair is a massive red flag - particularly for a WR who needs to make cuts - and there are other guys I'll take at his ADP without the injury risk.

This will be an interesting case and one where someone might be able to snag Sutton at a great discount.  I agree that even with the modern medicine (which gets better each year for ACL rehab) there will be likely some adjustment and "easing" into things. Having said that I'm all over Sutton right now at his current rate. Even in keeper/dynasty I think now is the time to buy. Yes it is risky and he could reinjure himself.  There have been cases where athletes blow their other ACL or achillies due to over compensation. 

Without getting into specifics the rehab is much better these days and these athletes have all access all the time. Even if he has a slow start the first 2-4 weeks, if he can avoid reinjury he should get a lot of targets especially in the red zone. An improved Jeudy should help his cause too.  But they need a QB.  All said, I'm in at his current price.

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1 hour ago, Big Nate said:

Without getting into specifics the rehab is much better these days

How much better do you think rehab is compared to say five or even ten years ago? I don't think it's changed much, if at all. Baked into that recovery time is operation, swelling reduction, osseointegration of graft and return of muscle balance between VMO and hamstring. I put all that at six months absolute bare minimum and don't see how this can be reduced any further (it's all physiology). Nine months I would think is a rushed return. Twelve months is still underdone but passable. I reckon if you took a straw poll from (let's go recent high-profile) Saquon, Burrow, Bosa, privately I think they'll say they didn't feel 100% on return.

If you're using using 1980's as a yardstick sure, the rehab is better. But for technical factors in the operation, I don't think today's recovery is markedly better than 2011.

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On 5/14/2021 at 2:59 AM, NInsko said:

 

I had to go halfway through this video to see something impressive (the TD grab vs Cleveland).  First he beats a LB on a crossing route, then 3 times he finds the soft spot in a zone, then he beats terrible CB Tre Herndon a few times.

He looks like an NFL starter for sure, but not very exciting.

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58 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

Doesn't it seem like most of the players with slow ACL recoveries have exhibited warning signs in the off season?

Is that risk often made public?

You have an NFL team doctor with two competing interests:

1) the player he has a duty of care to treat and advocate for; and

2) the team/coach/GM/owner paying said player millions a year and getting 0 production.

When 2) starts to get restless about 1) not being on the field, you get players hiding injuries/leaked reports of "not being a team player". The model post-injury player is someone who is ignoring the doctors and chaffing at the bit to get back out there. The reality is that most of them are underdone, held together with a mixture of strapping tape, braces, painkillers and nerve blocks (see: Taylor, Tyrod) and unless they're in the guaranteed portion of their 2nd contract are playing for the next deal.

So I trust 0% of what comes out from the team. The player is always "ahead of schedule" in their recovery - utter bollocks. The reinjury risk is built into statistics and is almost impossible to predict on an individual level.

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4 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6931147/

Compared with the study by Shelbourne et al, the present study demonstrates a more than 2 times increased risk of subsequent ACL injury in NFL players after prior successful ACL reconstruction and return to play

 

I'm just pointing out that players very early post-ACL are sitting ducks to re-do the injury.

Does that affect Sutton's long-term outlook? Not overly. Do I want him the season immediately following a major injury? Also not overly. ACL injuries are underestimated as we see all these "superhero" stories of people returning to sport in a year. Anecdata here, but I did mine 10 years ago and I didn't feel a return to normal for 24 months. I think these athletes are pushed to return and heavily underdone in terms of VMO strength and proprioception. So look, if Sutton is your cup of tea, go nuts. But my opinion (and I've tried to highlight the literature on the topic) is that first season post-ACL repair is a massive red flag - particularly for a WR who needs to make cuts - and there are other guys I'll take at his ADP without the injury risk.

 

et al

 

 

This is a football forum, bro

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On 5/13/2021 at 9:47 PM, NInsko said:

I think C.SUTT IS A HIGH END WR2 without Rodgers and a steal at his current value. I hope Rodgers doesn't get traded to Denver so that his ADP stays similar to what it is now.

agree with @mocha4313 above that "low end WR2" is more realistic, and with @DeliciousGravy that fading sutton is appropriate (unless aaron rodgers comes to town).

i love sutton's talent. and i agree with you that stutton is a STEAL right now: WR33 at ADP 7.08 (half-PPR). but totally on "high end WR2" -- based on who is ahead of sutton, it ain't happening.

i suggest that sutton's talent and potential being undercut by denver's offense is only part of the equation. the other part is, there are a ton of solid WR2s. consider ADP as a measure of who we might see at "high-end WR2" --- here are WRs #12-24 according to today's ADP:

  • mclaurin, mike evans, amari cooper, chris godwin, cee dee lamb, adam thielen, kenny golladay, robert woods, diontae johnson, cooper kupp, tee higgins, tyler locket

with the wind behind his back (and with competition from claypool and gallup), maybe sutton could overtake diontae johnson or cee dee lamb, but to climb into “high end WR2” there’s too much talent + opportunity + better QB play.
On 5/18/2021 at 7:04 AM, MingusDew said:

Jeudy is not as talented as Sutton and won’t be a dominant receiver on the team until Sutton is gone. Of that I’m fairly confident.

we can disagree here, but it's really like comparing apples and pears. one is a powerful deep threat and contested catcher, the other is a route-running slot WR able to gain separation with quick moves.

Jerry-Jeudy-Broncos.gif

 

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On 5/18/2021 at 7:04 AM, MingusDew said:

Jeudy is not as talented as Sutton and won’t be a dominant receiver on the team until Sutton is gone. Of that I’m fairly confident. 
 

Lock is the problem. But hell Scary Terry was a WR2 with atrocious QB play last year and Sutton has proven he can turn trash to gold before. 

Ummmm uhhh ummmm ....sure.

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Saying Jeudy is no threat and isn't as talented is hilarious. 

Jeudy is more talented and will be the better NFL WR. Being a rookie in the NFL is difficult and he had to do it with arguably the worst situation in the NFL. They had absolutely no one worth a damn to relieve any pressure of him and their QB situation was horrendous. Lock is terrible and he had to spend 3 games with guys worse than Lock (including one with no QB). 

Despite this he still got 850 yards and led the team in receiving. His rookie year was better than what Sutton did his rookie year and Sutton had a significantly better situation his rookie season. Jeudy is absurdly under-drafted and Sutton is over-drafted.

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Saying Jeudy is no threat and isn't as talented is hilarious. 

Jeudy is more talented and will be the better NFL WR. Being a rookie in the NFL is difficult and he had to do it with arguably the worst situation in the NFL. They had absolutely no one worth a damn to relieve any pressure of him and their QB situation was horrendous. Lock is terrible and he had to spend 3 games with guys worse than Lock (including one with no QB). 

Despite this he still got 850 yards and led the team in receiving. His rookie year was better than what Sutton did his rookie year and Sutton had a significantly better situation his rookie season. Jeudy is absurdly under-drafted and Sutton is over-drafted.

Yeah I own both in dynasty and watch plenty of the AFC West

Jeudy is good. Sutton is better. It isn't particularly close

On an efficiency basis even Sutton's rookie year was better than Jeudy's rookie year. Jeudy had immediate opportunity and got outproduced by a healthy Tim Patrick for a good chunk of the season

Sutton was behind actual studs in Sanders and Demaryius Thomas as a rookie

Sutton earned a higher PFF grade as a rookie than Jeudy

Sutton is better and is actually built to be a WR1

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Yeah I own both in dynasty and watch plenty of the AFC West

Jeudy is good. Sutton is better. It isn't particularly close

On an efficiency basis even Sutton's rookie year was better than Jeudy's rookie year. Jeudy had immediate opportunity and got outproduced by a healthy Tim Patrick for a good chunk of the season

Sutton was behind actual studs in Sanders and Demaryius Thomas as a rookie

Sutton earned a higher PFF grade as a rookie than Jeudy

Sutton is better and is actually built to be a WR1

1. PFF grade. PFF is a good source but there grades are not reliable to say the least. Just throwing them around isn't exactly an arguing point. 

2. The Thomas and Sanders thing is...something. Thomas played 8 games and Sanders played 12. Both were well passed their prime and bad at that point. "Actual studs"? Neither were 1,000 yard guys the season prior and barely hit 1,000 that year...combined. 

3. Immediate opportunity? As in being thrown into the fire as the only option worth a damn on a team with arguably the worst starting QB in the entire NFL. I guess that's opportunity for you.

Being a rookie WR in the NFL is hard. This should be known to everyone at this stage. As a rookie, it is actually beneficial to have some help from other skill position players and to have a QB that is somewhat capable of assisting in development. Jeudy had the furthest thing you can from that and still had more yards than Sutton.

You can argue Sutton is going to be a better player (he isn't). However, "It isn't particularly close" is something else.

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3 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

1. PFF grade. PFF is a good source but there grades are not reliable to say the least. Just throwing them around isn't exactly an arguing point. 

2. The Thomas and Sanders thing is...something. Thomas played 8 games and Sanders played 12. Both were well passed their prime and bad at that point. "Actual studs"? Neither were 1,000 yard guys the season prior and barely hit 1,000 that year...combined. 

3. Immediate opportunity? As in being thrown into the fire as the only option worth a damn on a team with arguably the worst starting QB in the entire NFL. I guess that's opportunity for you.

Being a rookie WR in the NFL is hard. This should be known to everyone at this stage. As a rookie, it is actually beneficial to have some help from other skill position players and to have a QB that is somewhat capable of assisting in development. Jeudy had the furthest thing you can from that and still had more yards than Sutton.

You can argue Sutton is going to be a better player (he isn't). However, "It isn't particularly close" is something else.

Sutton is the far better player. This is like saying Marvin Jones is better than Kenny Golladay

You are using volume stats to set up your argument for the worse player being better--so yes "immediate opportunity" is a good thing and Jeudy was most certainly not the "only option worth a damn"--Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick (the guy who outproduced Jeudy while healthy) were all there

Sutton as a rookie logged:

a higher catch rate (despite a higher ADOT and deeper targets), a higher yards per target by 4 yards, more touchdowns, a higher yards per reception, a higher yards per route run

Oh but he had a the superstud QB that is checks notes Case Keenum

Clearly that's why he was more productive as a rookie

If I throw up his sophomore season with the corpse of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen and Drew Lock it's even less close

Kind of what happens when you compare a far superior player to the 6th best rookie WR from last year

And yeah PFF grade isn't infallible but when one is rated over 20 points above the other in addition to markedly better efficiency--they are a better player. It's one piece of the puzzle not the whole thing

Jeudy can have a really nice career but better than Sutton he is not (or even close)

Sutton is closer to elite perennial pro Bowl WRs than he is to Jeudy

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Sutton is the far better player. This is like saying Marvin Jones is better than Kenny Golladay

You are using volume stats to set up your argument for the worse player being better--so yes "immediate opportunity" is a good thing and Jeudy was most certainly not the "only option worth a damn"--Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick (the guy who outproduced Jeudy while healthy) were all there

Sutton as a rookie logged:

a higher catch rate (despite a higher ADOT and deeper targets), a higher yards per target by 4 yards, more touchdowns, a higher yards per reception, a higher yards per route run

Oh but he had a the superstud QB that is checks notes Case Keenum

Clearly that's why he was more productive as a rookie

If I throw up his sophomore season with the corpse of Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen and Drew Lock it's even less close

Kind of what happens when you compare a far superior player to the 6th best rookie WR from last year

And yeah PFF grade isn't infallible but when one is rated over 20 points above the other in addition to markedly better efficiency--they are a better player. It's one piece of the puzzle not the whole thing

Jeudy can have a really nice career but better than Sutton he is not (or even close)

Sutton is closer to elite perennial pro Bowl WRs than he is to Jeudy

Seems interesting to me the shade on JJ w/Sutton having one nice season and now coming off of major injury. Imo I believe he’s the third most athletic pass catcher on this squad. Red zone he should be decent. But routes, hands, pedigree—JJ

Edited by Whitecloud0101
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1 minute ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Seems interesting to me the shade on JJ w/Sutton having one nice season and now coming off of major injury. Imo I believe he’s the third most athletic pass catcher on this squad. Red zone he should be decent. But routes, hands, pedigree—-JJ All Day.

If Sutton's 2019 is only "nice" then what's Jeudy's season lol?

Atrocious? Disastrous? (and I don't believe it was--but it was worlds worse than Sutton's when considering the underlying metrics--and honestly even when not)

And yeah it isn't 1963 so I don't rate an ACL as a "major injury." Sorry

And if athleticism at the WR position mattered (it doesn't--wish I'd known this when I passed on Tee Higgins last year in rookie drafts) then Fant is easily the most athletic pass catcher. 2nd place though?

It's fairly comfortably Sutton when adjusting for size. His 4.54 40 vs Jeudy's 4.45 converts to an 85th percentile speed score vs Jeudy's 65th percentile (Speed score adjusts for size). His burst score (based on vertical and broad jump) was 56th percentile while Jeudy's was 41st percentile

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/courtland-sutton/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jerry-jeudy/

And lmao at hands. I'm not throwing shade but your boy would have dropped it even if I did.

Yeah he's a better route runner.

Sutton is nonetheless a far superior player based on their performances to date.

Maybe that changes this year--who knows? But right now when healthy Tim Patrick was outproducing Jeudy in the same offense I don't believe it will (Sutton dominated the Denver passing offense--including Patrick last year)

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