Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Courtland Sutton 2021 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Just now, mocha4313 said:

If Sutton's 2019 is only "nice" then what's Jeudy's season lol?

Atrocious? Disastrous? (and I don't believe it was--but it was worlds worse than Sutton's when considering the underlying metrics--and honestly even when not)

And yeah it isn't 1963 so I don't rate an ACL as a "major injury." Sorry

And if athleticism at the WR position mattered (it doesn't--wish I'd known this when I passed on Tee Higgins last year in rookie drafts) then Fant is easily the most athletic pass catcher. 2nd place though?

It's fairly comfortably Sutton when adjusting for size. His 4.54 40 vs Jeudy's 4.45 converts to an 85th percentile speed score vs Jeudy's 65th percentile (Speed score adjusts for size). His burst score (based on vertical and broad jump) was 56th percentile while Jeudy's was 41st percentile

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/courtland-sutton/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jerry-jeudy/

And lmao at hands. I'm not throwing shade but your boy would have dropped it even if I did.

Yeah he's a better route runner.

Sutton is nonetheless a far superior player based on their performances to date.

Maybe that changes this year--who knows? But right now when healthy Tim Patrick was outproducing Jeudy in the same offense I don't believe it will (Sutton dominated the Denver passing offense--including Patrick last year)

Alright man. Touchdown teddy and jj playing catch right now...

im confident jj will outscore court 1pt ppr this yr.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Alright man. Touchdown teddy and jj playing catch right now...

im confident jj will outscore court 1pt ppr this yr.

Do you have any evidence to back your point?

I've provided plenty for my end

You've provided Jeudy's legendary "hands" that built a 73.2% true catch rate (103rd among all qualified receivers) and the 7th most drops

And Teddy does change things--that would be Jeudy's one chance at outproducing Sutton (with Lock it's easily Sutton)

Now both QBs are pretty terrible. Ask DJ Moore what "touchdown Teddy" can do for a WR but still he would seem to shy away from tight window throws

Edited by mocha4313
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Not to add fuel to the fire. But didn’t Jerry juedy have a 5 drop game once? Or am I making that up?

Depending on who you source for drops he did

Playerprofiler for example is more forgiving on "drops" and only counted 3 from that game but regardless drops were a major issue. PFF likely counted 5 drops from that game

I'm not even saying he's bad fwiw.

I bought low on him in dynasty and think 856 yards with Lock was a pretty decent rookie year and like that he was getting open enough to draw a ton of targets

But better than Sutton? Right now he has zero case.

Also why it should be objected to when someone says something verifiably and objectively false like that Jeudy is a "better athlete" when he quite literally is not based on the records of athleticism drills we have of both Jeudy and Sutton and Jeudy getting a relative athletic score of 6.77 out of 10: https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=20151 (fine to decent for an NFL WR) and Sutton getting a 9.80 out of 10: https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=15616

Edited by mocha4313
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

agree with @mocha4313 above that "low end WR2" is more realistic, and with @DeliciousGravy that fading sutton is appropriate (unless aaron rodgers comes to town).

i love sutton's talent. and i agree with you that stutton is a STEAL right now: WR33 at ADP 7.08 (half-PPR). but totally on "high end WR2" -- based on who is ahead of sutton, it ain't happening.

i suggest that sutton's talent and potential being undercut by denver's offense is only part of the equation. the other part is, there are a ton of solid WR2s. consider ADP as a measure of who we might see at "high-end WR2" --- here are WRs #12-24 according to today's ADP:

  • mclaurin, mike evans, amari cooper, chris godwin, cee dee lamb, adam thielen, kenny golladay, robert woods, diontae johnson, cooper kupp, tee higgins, tyler locket

     

 

 

with the wind behind his back (and with competition from claypool and gallup), maybe sutton could overtake diontae johnson or cee dee lamb, but to climb into “high end WR2” there’s too much talent + opportunity + better QB play.

 

 

we can disagree here, but it's really like comparing apples and pears. one is a powerful deep threat and contested catcher, the other is a route-running slot WR able to gain separation with quick moves.

Jerry-Jeudy-Broncos.gif

 

I  was a little over zealous with the high end label, I should have just said WR2. I'm just high on Sutton and like his depressed draft ranking, its's giving me a Cooper Kupp return from injury vibe. Out of your list id rank him right after Kupp but would hopefully be able to grab him a few rnds later, thats the main appeal to me. If Rodgers ends up in Denver i'd only draft him if he were going in the 6th round range which might be wishful thinking.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)
On 5/20/2021 at 7:51 PM, Whitecloud0101 said:

Alright man. Touchdown teddy and jj playing catch right now...

im confident jj will outscore court 1pt ppr this yr.

The Athletic's Nick Kosmider reports Jerry Jeudy has been Teddy Bridgewater's "most frequent target" at OTAs.

I feel like we already knew this on may 20th..

Edited by Whitecloud0101
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
On 5/20/2021 at 7:51 PM, Whitecloud0101 said:

Alright man. Touchdown teddy and jj playing catch right now...

im confident jj will outscore court 1pt ppr this yr.

 

On 5/20/2021 at 7:54 PM, mocha4313 said:

Do you have any evidence to back your point?

I've provided plenty for my end

You've provided Jeudy's legendary "hands" that built a 73.2% true catch rate (103rd among all qualified receivers) and the 7th most drops

And Teddy does change things--that would be Jeudy's one chance at outproducing Sutton (with Lock it's easily Sutton)

Now both QBs are pretty terrible. Ask DJ Moore what "touchdown Teddy" can do for a WR but still he would seem to shy away from tight window throws

Feeling better by the day on Sutton vs JJ talk…just sayin

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/3/2021 at 9:26 AM, Whitecloud0101 said:

 

Feeling better by the day on Sutton vs JJ talk…just sayin

When I see some kind of indication of Jeudy being better at football I might agree

Until then the legendary hands of a 46.2% catch rate remain just that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

When I see some kind of indication of Jeudy being better at football I might agree

Until then the legendary hands of a 46.2% catch rate remain just that

My stance was simple. That jj would have a better year. My stance remains the same…the industry shares the same sentiment. I’m not going to go look up stats today on all the wr1’s of 2020 and how many drops they had or the % of drops on catchable targets etc, I’m simply saying that JJ is the better football player in 2021. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/3/2021 at 12:26 PM, Whitecloud0101 said:

Feeling better by the day on Sutton vs JJ talk…just sayin

You may end up correct, but you're starting to take victory laps wayyyy too soon man. Random beat writer comments during the summer is worth about as much as you'd be willing to pay for their content.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Until then the legendary hands of a 46.2% catch rate remain just that

First of all, many of the top WRs also are near the top in drops. Secondly, drops don't particularly carry over year-to-year. Thirdly, rather than just say something like 'drops are part of the game' as many a diva WR would do, Jeudy has recognized the problem and is working on taking an extra half second to ensure the catch before scanning the field. 

He also had terrible QB play last season but he had something like the 5th most air yards of ALL WRs and the most unrealized air yards. He's also a 2nd year WR which is usually the sweet spot. 

All this means that one shouldn't just jump on Sutton with the very simplistic notion that there's no competition for him because 'Jeudy can't catch and he sucks'. Jeudy is pretty good and so it Sutton. My guess is that the two will be as close in PPR points as any two top WRs on any team will be this season (Lamb and Cooper as well). 

If I really had to whittle it down to a fine point, I'd guess that Jeudy would be a tic better with Bridgewater and Sutton a tad better with Lock. But they both seem undervalued at their current ADPs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, owenmills said:

You may end up correct, but you're starting to take victory laps wayyyy too soon man. Random beat writer comments during the summer is worth about as much as you'd be willing to pay for their content.  

In all due respect, I was saying this before a single practice 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

In all due respect, I was saying this before a single practice 

I'm not talking about your initial opinion. That's fine. I have Sutton in a keeper league for cheap so I'll have him, but if I had to pick between the two at their current ADPs I might take JJ too, especially since he's not coming off an ACL tear. I think they'll both have good years. 

But the beat writer quote is meaningless. Once you've played fantasy for many years and have been dupped by coachspeak or beat writer hype you'll understand. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I'm not talking about your initial opinion. That's fine. I have Sutton in a keeper league for cheap so I'll have him, but if I had to pick between the two at their current ADPs I might take JJ too, especially since he's not coming off an ACL tear. I think they'll both have good years. 

But the beat writer quote is meaningless. Once you've played fantasy for many years and have been dupped by coachspeak or beat writer hype you'll understand. 

Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, owenmills said:

I'm not talking about your initial opinion. That's fine. I have Sutton in a keeper league for cheap so I'll have him, but if I had to pick between the two at their current ADPs I might take JJ too, especially since he's not coming off an ACL tear. I think they'll both have good years. 

But the beat writer quote is meaningless. Once you've played fantasy for many years and have been dupped by coachspeak or beat writer hype you'll understand. 

Going on yr 12 and I still fall for some lol. I do think Juedy rebounds this yr though, not really concerned with drops. Sutton doesn't seem to be 100% whether that actually be mentally or physically

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOVE the value on Sutton this year.  

He was on the trajectory of a future All Pro type of WR before coming down with the ACL injury early last year: 

  • Intriguing high upside prospect coming out in 2018 with size + athleticism
  • Early R2 draft capital
  • breakout 2nd year with 72/1112/6.

Anyone who watched his 2019 season knows how great he looked that year, as reflected by his high ADP in 2020.

Yes, the situation isn't great with Teddy B and Lock but he's available late enough where it's an easy bet based on his talent.  Plus we just saw Teddy B support 2 1k WRs last year in DJM and Robby Anderson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

LOVE the value on Sutton this year.  

He was on the trajectory of a future All Pro type of WR before coming down with the ACL injury early last year: 

  • Intriguing high upside prospect coming out in 2018 with size + athleticism
  • Early R2 draft capital
  • breakout 2nd year with 72/1112/6.

Anyone who watched his 2019 season knows how great he looked that year, as reflected by his high ADP in 2020.

Yes, the situation isn't great with Teddy B and Lock but he's available late enough where it's an easy bet based on his talent.  Plus we just saw Teddy B support 2 1k WRs last year in DJM and Robby Anderson.

Teddy B made Moore and Anderson low-end WR2s last season. That should be the expectation for Sutton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm fading Sutton as a WR2. In my opinion, no way he returns that out the gate based on video it's of training camp. He looks slow off the line and out of his break and the top end speed just isn't there yet. 

Jeudy may have you scared from his inefficient rookie year but both reports and video show a more polished receiver for his second season. Reports continue, that Jeudy is not just Teddy's favorite target but Locks as well meaning, whoever wins the job will be throwing to Jeudy. Jerry is the WR2 with WR1 upside. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Evincar said:

Teddy B made Moore and Anderson low-end WR2s last season. That should be the expectation for Sutton.

It's a completely different team, offense, etc.  Don't think you can assume that at all.

Teddy B as QB isn't a good thing for WRs but the fact that he supported 2 1k WRs last year is a positive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, PDX_EFF said:

I'm fading Sutton as a WR2. In my opinion, no way he returns that out the gate based on video it's of training camp. He looks slow off the line and out of his break and the top end speed just isn't there yet. 

Jeudy may have you scared from his inefficient rookie year but both reports and video show a more polished receiver for his second season. Reports continue, that Jeudy is not just Teddy's favorite target but Locks as well meaning, whoever wins the job will be throwing to Jeudy. Jerry is the WR2 with WR1 upside. 

 

You feel confident in this take based on a single rep from the 1st week of training camp?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

Teddy B as QB isn't a good thing for WRs but the fact that he supported 2 1k WRs last year is a positive.

Agree.  I like Jeudy and Sutton, just not Teddy, but if he did it in carolina seems be would have even better chance in Denver.  Both WRs I think they have value at their respective ADPs. I can see Jeudy's stock rising and Suttons falling in the coming weeks.  It will be interesting to see if one emerges as the teams clear cut #1 or maybe  they're both serviceable WR3/2 with upside some weeks.  As a fan I hope Jeudy breakouts out, but just not convinced this is the year with Teddy under center.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Teddy B as QB isn't a good thing for WRs but the fact that he supported 2 1k WRs last year is a positive.

Even 3 1k WRs if you count the 200 rushing yards of Curtis Samuel.

I'm starting to think Teddy B may in fact be a good thing for WRs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...