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Trey Sermon 2021 Outlook


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On 6/13/2021 at 2:33 PM, nn4mz said:

Historically, hasn’t it always been guessing game (Mostert, Coleman, Breida, Wilson Jr)?

I just can’t deal with the guessing game.

I like Trey, though.  May get him as a flier.

 

Carlos Hyde did get 240 carries in Shanny's first season there.  Maybe it's been a guessing game becauase of the coaching staff, or maybe they've never had "a guy" who can carry the load for 16 games.

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On 6/15/2021 at 7:28 AM, El_Chingon said:

Mostert is is there though.  He will get the first shot and run until the wheels fall off, which admittedly they probably will.  Sermon more of a dynasty value unless you hope for a mostert injury.

 

Mostert getting the first shot at featureback carries is probably a better scenario for Sermon.  As you mention, I doubt Mostert could last...

 

A bad scenario would be something like Sermon starts in a split backfield with Mostert as 3rd down back with Elijah Mitchell/Gallman getting mixed in too...

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1 minute ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Mostert getting the first shot at featureback carries is probably a better scenario for Sermon.  As you mention, I doubt Mostert could last...

 

A bad scenario would be something like Sermon starts in a split backfield with Mostert as 3rd down back with Elijah Mitchell/Gallman getting mixed in too...

I agree.  As I said one post down, I think impatient owners will drop sermon after a few weeks, then will be the time to get him for free.  

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I own Mostert in a dynasty and all I have to say is it sure looks like things are breaking in Sermon's favor. Mostert's never been the picture of health and the fact that he's already managed to develop a "minor" knee issue before practices even start is very concerning. I'm liking Sermon more and more as we move through the summer. 

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Remember how Mostert took over dominating as one of the TOP RBS mid season or down the stretch getting like 15-18 touches a game a few yrs ago? That's what I envision for Sermon but possibly earlier in the yr. Even if Mostert stays healthy once lance takes over they could be running the ball at the same rate as Baltimore

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3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

I’m a fan of sermon and his fit on this O but people seem to be acting like Mostert just isn’t good? If he gets injured sure, but he’s not going to outright lose the rb1 job 

I'm not discounting Mostert, I think he's great and owned him last yr and down the stretch the yr he broke out but he misses games and the 9ERS have run a RBBC for a few yrs now look how many RBs they have on their current roster, thats not a new trend. If  all of them were healthy at once last yr they could have produced too.

 Sermons Shannys Hand picked RB who he tradded multiple picks for and due to circumstance he's already running with the first team once Mosterts back i'm sure that will change. In general his first impressions have been positive his ADP is lower by a few rounds which makes him the more appealing RB on the 49ers to me., can't speak for anyone else.

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1 hour ago, NInsko said:

I'm not discounting Mostert, I think he's great and owned him last yr and down the stretch the yr he broke out but he misses games and the 9ERS have run a RBBC for a few yrs now look how many RBs they have on their current roster, thats not a new trend. If  all of them were healthy at once last yr they could have produced too.

 Sermons Shannys Hand picked RB who he tradded multiple picks for and due to circumstance he's already running with the first team once Mosterts back i'm sure that will change. In general his first impressions have been positive his ADP is lower by a few rounds which makes him the more appealing RB on the 49ers to me., can't speak for anyone else.

They didn’t trade ‘multiple picks’. They traded one pick #121 to Move up from 117 to 88. I like Sermon but this trade up is not all that meaningful, these trades happen all the time.

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25 minutes ago, Joe Mama said:

They didn’t trade ‘multiple picks’. They traded one pick #121 to Move up from 117 to 88. I like Sermon but this trade up is not all that meaningful, these trades happen all the time.

Ya not like they spent a ton of draft capital to move up for Sermon, it was a cheap way to backfill their RB depth. Fortunately for Sermon, Mostert & Wilson are both prone to getting dinged up. Gallman is a bit of a wildcard.

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5 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

I’m a fan of sermon and his fit on this O but people seem to be acting like Mostert just isn’t good? If he gets injured sure, but he’s not going to outright lose the rb1 job 

Agreed, Sermon's ADP keeps rising as if Mostert doesn't exist.  As the prseason hype increases will be hard to justify picking Sermon over other guys surrounding him at his ADP.

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No, not as a depth guy. They traded up to address their need for a lead 'back! It also speaks to their belief & confidence in the player's ability & fit. He's not likely going to be anointed the starter in August, it usually doesn't work that way. But his opportunity will come & owners may have to wait, but in longer formats, I want Sermon on all my teams. 

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7 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

They didn’t trade ‘multiple picks’. They traded one pick #121 to Move up from 117 to 88. I like Sermon but this trade up is not all that meaningful, these trades happen all the time.

This all goes to say the 49ers' most-surprising move during the three-day 2021 NFL Draft was the decision to trade two fourth-round picks to move up for Ohio State running back Trey Sermon. The 49ers entered the draft with Mostert, Wilson, Wayne Gallman Jr. and JaMycal Hasty already on the roster.May 3, 2021

I read two picks in this blurb but two might mean one now I don't know...

Trades do happen all the time, "my" Colts traded up for Taylor last yr. When a team trades up it normally means they really like and want that player so like Markrc99 said he should get his opportunity it just might not be right away. OR Wayne Gallman could be they guy no one really knows but i'll try and take my chances with Sermon.

A few of the Top fantasy "experts" i listen to Pat Fitzmaurice and Justin Boone also have raved about him. I only mention them as they have been ranked in  top 5 for a few years and more specifically for the RB position. 

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20 hours ago, NInsko said:

I read two picks in this blurb but two might mean one now I don't know...

Yea, the news sources might make it confusing. Technically they traded 'multiple picks' to get Sermon, but in reality they only had one fewer pick than before. 

Since you're a Colts fan (me too!), you'll remember when the Jets traded 3 2nd rounders to move from #6 to #3 to get Darnold (and left us stuck with crappy old Quentin Nelson😄)

The proper way to report that trade is that the Jets traded 3 2nd rounders to move up. But some places were reporting that the Jets traded a 1st rounder AND 3 2nd rounders to get Darnold. Technically correct, but that 1st rounder was just the pick swap from #6 to #3. It's the same thing with 'multiple picks' to get Sermon. 

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On 6/28/2021 at 10:47 AM, Andypro said:

Yea, the news sources might make it confusing. Technically they traded 'multiple picks' to get Sermon, but in reality they only had one fewer pick than before. 

Since you're a Colts fan (me too!), you'll remember when the Jets traded 3 2nd rounders to move from #6 to #3 to get Darnold (and left us stuck with crappy old Quentin Nelson😄)

The proper way to report that trade is that the Jets traded 3 2nd rounders to move up. But some places were reporting that the Jets traded a 1st rounder AND 3 2nd rounders to get Darnold. Technically correct, but that 1st rounder was just the pick swap from #6 to #3. It's the same thing with 'multiple picks' to get Sermon. 

Go Colts!!! 

Ya, A Pick swap plus another pick. Technically two picks but one usually just a few spots with the 2nd pick (or more, Ballard style) used as incentive for the other team to move back..either way I like Sermon if he's there in the 7th-9th rnd atm and depending on camp chatter and pre season might consider higher.

 

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On 7/4/2021 at 9:22 AM, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

49ers RBs get injured a lot. Pairing the two would be good.

Mostert gets hurt a lot. Sermon still a clean slate. 

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