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Trey Sermon 2021 Outlook


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The Athletic's Matt Barrows said the 49ers want to run the ball 500 times in 2021. 

Barrows picked Trey Sermon as the team's breakout player this season, and said the rookie "ought to get a big chunk" of those 500 rushing attempts" if he stays healthy this year. What that means, no one knows. Sermon's best case scenario is splitting the 49ers backfield 50-50 with Raheem Mostert, who profiles as the team's Week 1 starter. Sermon's path to consistent usage opened after Jeff Wilson suffered a knee injury that will keep him out for the season's first month. Beat writers have said Sermon is "ahead of the curve" in learning Kyle Shanahan's offense and that he made "a strong impression" during offseason practices. Only three teams -- the Titans, Patriots, and Ravens -- rushed more than 500 times in 2020. In 2019, Baltimore was the only team to log more than 500 rushes. It's a heady number that the Niners could reach if Trey Lance takes over the team's offense early in 2021 and operates one of the league's run-heaviest attacks. Sermon's fifth round ADP will test the mettle of the back's true believers this summer.

Source: The Athletic
Jul 6, 2021, 8:55 AM ET
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9 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

In all of my recent drafts, he’s a rd 6 guy…let’s run a quickie hypo draft…Henry, Aj brown, dobbins, ceedee, X player , sermon…too spicey or just saavy…

 

6th round holds up. I was in the 6th spot in a PPR draft recently and I went Hill, Najee Harris, CEH, MT, Josh Allen, and then Javonte. 

The RBs surrounding him aren't particularly spectacular with guys like James Robinson, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon (lol) there. I can see why Trey Sermon is already creeping into the same round. 

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On 7/7/2021 at 11:14 AM, The G Man said:

The Athletic's Matt Barrows said the 49ers want to run the ball 500 times in 2021. 

Barrows picked Trey Sermon as the team's breakout player this season, and said the rookie "ought to get a big chunk" of those 500 rushing attempts" if he stays healthy this year. What that means, no one knows. Sermon's best case scenario is splitting the 49ers backfield 50-50 with Raheem Mostert, who profiles as the team's Week 1 starter. Sermon's path to consistent usage opened after Jeff Wilson suffered a knee injury that will keep him out for the season's first month. Beat writers have said Sermon is "ahead of the curve" in learning Kyle Shanahan's offense and that he made "a strong impression" during offseason practices. Only three teams -- the Titans, Patriots, and Ravens -- rushed more than 500 times in 2020. In 2019, Baltimore was the only team to log more than 500 rushes. It's a heady number that the Niners could reach if Trey Lance takes over the team's offense early in 2021 and operates one of the league's run-heaviest attacks. Sermon's fifth round ADP will test the mettle of the back's true believers this summer.

Source: The Athletic
Jul 6, 2021, 8:55 AM ET

If Barrow’s statement is credible it feels like Lance is gonna be the starter from the jump.

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I keep hearing that is ADP is gonna sky rocket before most people draft.  Possible 3rd early 4th rounds.  Could be higher if news comes out about what exact percentage of snaps he is getting.  Or if named the starter then second rounder. If drafting soon I would say get this guy no matter what.  

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1 hour ago, Dylanfan66 said:

I keep hearing that is ADP is gonna sky rocket before most people draft.  Possible 3rd early 4th rounds.  Could be higher if news comes out about what exact percentage of snaps he is getting.  Or if named the starter then second rounder. If drafting soon I would say get this guy no matter what.  

Been smashing the S@$$ out Of the draft button in rd 6. Hope he’s a rb2…

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25 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Whate are we thinking about this guy for dynasty right now? 

I don't play much dynasty but I'd think he's definitely someone you'd want on your team.  Talented RB for a top running team with a fairly fragile back in front of him.   I guess the only negative is that Shanny always uses multiple backs.    Even when there's a big talent gap. 

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37 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Whate are we thinking about this guy for dynasty right now? 

Pretty golden.

Beyond the obv that he is in position to have a possibly significant role right off the bat, both Mostert and Wilson are free agents after this year.

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Also realize I am putting the cart way before the horse here, but the SF schedule is super nice looking (all year).

And in WK 14-17 they get: @CIN, v ATL, @TEN, v HOU...

Shoot, even the 3 weeks before that for the FF playoff push they get: WK11 @JAC, WK12 v MIN and WK13 @SEA

That is some bigtime upside.

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Same stories as a lot of rookie RBs.

1. Extremely interesting prospect

2. Starts to sound like a huge potential player with a chance for a big role

3. Looks like a solid pick

4. Everyone jumps on the hype train and he goes up to like the 3rd-4th round

5. Clearly doesn't meet his ADP

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On 7/14/2021 at 12:36 PM, Gohawks said:

Same stories as a lot of rookie RBs.

1. Extremely interesting prospect

2. Starts to sound like a huge potential player with a chance for a big role

3. Looks like a solid pick

4. Everyone jumps on the hype train and he goes up to like the 3rd-4th round

5. Clearly doesn't meet his ADP

Damn. Negative nelly.

in what draft will he jump to rd 3&4? 

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5 hours ago, timexsocialclub said:

Just need Mostert to get healthy and hopefully remain nominally the starter through all of draft season.

Fify.  Guy didn't even make OTAs in June.  At this point, if he's a no show for opening of camp, that adp is going to take a round leap, maybe more.

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4 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

If you want a good enough reason to not *overdraft* and reach for this guy, go look at rushing stats for SF RB’s dating back to when Gore left since around 2015. 

You need to bring that **** to us my dude lol 

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4 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

You need to bring that **** to us my dude lol 

Here you go.  Since I have internet, I'll provide the statistics for you.  Mind you, I didn't say don't draft Sermon, I said don't overdraft/reach for him.  I even placed asterisks around it to make that point.  Looking over the past six years, they haven't had a single 1,000 yard rusher and the best years were milktoast, middle of the road seasons by...Carlos Hyde.  He could be good, but I'm just saying, don't expect this guy to be this year's Jonathan Taylor to come in and save your team after winning the job in a few weeks.  It could happen, but the odds are against it, as he'd have to be really, really good to be getting the kind of workload you'd need to be a major impact player.  With them drafting Elijah Mitchell, it looks like they're once again just doing the same ole, keep packin' the RB's in and mixing in the backfield reps.

2015

Hyde: 115 carries for 470 yards

Draughn: 76 carries for 263 yards

2016

Hyde: 217 carries for 988 yards

Draughn: 74 carries for 196 yards

2017

Hyde - 240 carries for 940 yards

Breida - 105 carries for 465 yards

2018

Breida - 153 carries for 814 yards

A. Morris - 111 carries for 428 yards

2019

Mostert - 137 carries for 772 yards

Breida - 123 carries for 623 yards

Coleman - 137 carries for 544 yards

2020

Wilson - 126 carries for 600 yards

Mostert - 104 carries for 521 yards

McKinnon - 81 carries for 319 yards

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I see it as more of a function of availability, they never had anything but mostly a host of guys that are notorious for being injured.

I get it, it is a physically demanding position...but some of these guys can't even make it through the off-season w/out getting dinged--or worse. They knew it was a problem and traded up to get a guy they think can solve the issue. Def don't want to overpay, because there is obv volatility when it comes to the depth chart, but Sermon is just gonna get helium...there is too much to like.

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51 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I see it as more of a function of availability, they never had anything but mostly a host of guys that are notorious for being injured.

I get it, it is a physically demanding position...but some of these guys can't even make it through the off-season w/out getting dinged--or worse. They knew it was a problem and traded up to get a guy they think can solve the issue. Def don't want to overpay, because there is obv volatility when it comes to the depth chart, but Sermon is just gonna get helium...there is too much to like.

Was gonna post essentially same thing. Also haven't exactly had a murderers row of RBs.

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2 hours ago, Joe Mama said:

Was gonna post essentially same thing. Also haven't exactly had a murderers row of RBs.

The problem is there aren’t any signs that Sermon is anything more than ordinary. This isn’t some amazing dynamic back. Read the scouting reports. Sounds more jag than difference-maker. Don’t reach. 

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