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FFC ADP has him in the 50s and FantasyPros has him in the 50s as well as of now.

That seems low. I'm not one to usually draft QBs early but I would 100% jump on it if he drops to 50.

He got off to a rough start but over the last 6 weeks of the season he was the averaged the most points out of any QB outscoring Allen by 1.5 PPG. Even if we extend this to only exclude the first 5 weeks where he struggled he was only outscored by Allen and Watson on the year and it was a razor thin margin.

Jackson is still the second best fantasy QB and right behind Mahomes IMO. Seems like people are hung up on his first few games for some reason. 

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Echoing all the positives so far.   I'm not typically one to target a QB early but he falls in a solid sweet spot, and with the league winning potential, it's a good chase for me.  Also, l've never ow

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

FFC ADP has him in the 50s and FantasyPros has him in the 50s as well as of now.

That seems low. I'm not one to usually draft QBs early but I would 100% jump on it if he drops to 50.

He got off to a rough start but over the last 6 weeks of the season he was the averaged the most points out of any QB outscoring Allen by 1.5 PPG. Even if we extend this to only exclude the first 5 weeks where he struggled he was only outscored by Allen and Watson on the year and it was a razor thin margin.

Jackson is still the second best fantasy QB and right behind Mahomes IMO. Seems like people are hung up on his first few games for some reason. 

50 seems about right. He had an ADP of 24 last season which was insane. He was barely a QB1 before he missed the Steelers game. He was only good in Weeks 13-16. He's probably around QB4/5 for me depending on Dak's health.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

FFC ADP has him in the 50s and FantasyPros has him in the 50s as well as of now.

That seems low. I'm not one to usually draft QBs early but I would 100% jump on it if he drops to 50.

He got off to a rough start but over the last 6 weeks of the season he was the averaged the most points out of any QB outscoring Allen by 1.5 PPG. Even if we extend this to only exclude the first 5 weeks where he struggled he was only outscored by Allen and Watson on the year and it was a razor thin margin.

Jackson is still the second best fantasy QB and right behind Mahomes IMO. Seems like people are hung up on his first few games for some reason. 

2020 was a real anomaly of a year for QBs and I believe that was due to covid the defenses were more basic in an attempt to be more bend not break style but I have no data or evidence to prove this.
 

Lamar Jackson scored 341 points in 15 games making him the qb10 over all. in any other year 341 points is a top 5 performance here is how he woulda finished in every other season back to 2012 

2019: 3rd

2018: 3rd

2017: 2nd 

2016: 3rd

2015: 3rd

2014: 3rd

2013: 3rd 

2012: 3rd 

 

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23 minutes ago, Evincar said:

50 seems about right. He had an ADP of 24 last season which was insane. He was barely a QB1 before he missed the Steelers game. He was only good in Weeks 13-16. He's probably around QB4/5 for me depending on Dak's health.

He was the 3rd best QB after week 5 in terms of PPG and only averaged like half a point less than #1 but alright...

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21 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

He was the 3rd best QB after week 5 in terms of PPG and only averaged like half a point less than #1 but alright...

So he was essentially tied with 5 other QBs if you only remove his weakest stretch of games. That make him look even worse.

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Echoing all the positives so far.   I'm not typically one to target a QB early but he falls in a solid sweet spot, and with the league winning potential, it's a good chase for me.  Also, l've never owned a share and lets be real, he's fun.  

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

So he was essentially tied with 5 other QBs if you only remove his weakest stretch of games. That make him look even worse.

Weeks 1-4 were not his weakest stretch of games.

week 1: 27.5 points

week2: 17.6 points

week 3: 14.2 points 

week 4: 26.0points 

Total 85 points 

 

Weeks 8-11 were his weakest.

Week 8: 16.8 points 

Week 9: 18.6 points 

Week 10: 22.5 points 

Week 11: 17.5 points 

total 75.4 points 

so being the QB 3 in ppg from week 5 on actually includes his worst stretch of games. 

 

not to mention he did the 341 points in 15 games due to missing covid. If he plays the 16th game and just gets 10 points he finishes the QB7. The only qb to outscore him who didn’t play 16 games was Herbert and he scored 342 points. 
 

I think ppl just remember the earlier games more because Fantasy just started and everyone is still super excited and their teams are not out of the playoff hunt yet etc etc. ppl forget kyler Murray finished the year awful. He had weekly finishes of 26th, 20th and 34th. But he was top 2 on the season so he was great all year. Some ppl forget how quickly Russ quit cooking and how average he was. And ppl won’t remember Lamar finishing the season with 26, 34, 30, 21, 25 point games cuss be started off slow and finished as qb10. 

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48 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

not to mention he did the 341 points in 15 games due to missing covid. If he plays the 16th game and just gets 10 points he finishes the QB7. The only qb to outscore him who didn’t play 16 games was Herbert and he scored 342 points. 
 

I think ppl just remember the earlier games more because Fantasy just started and everyone is still super excited and their teams are not out of the playoff hunt yet etc etc. ppl forget kyler Murray finished the year awful. He had weekly finishes of 26th, 20th and 34th. But he was top 2 on the season so he was great all year. Some ppl forget how quickly Russ quit cooking and how average he was. And ppl won’t remember Lamar finishing the season with 26, 34, 30, 21, 25 point games cuss be started off slow and finished as qb10. 

Murray and Wilson didnt have an outrageous ADP last season. He barely finished ahead of the likes of Tannehill, Brady, Herbert so lets not pretend he wasnt a huge disappointment. last season.

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3 hours ago, Evincar said:

So he was essentially tied with 5 other QBs if you only remove his weakest stretch of games. That make him look even worse.

That’s a weird (and wrong) way of looking at it.

He got off to a rough start. It’s not removing the stretch it’s showing that he returned to form and was pretty much as good as advertised after getting over his little hump which happens to the best of them.

He wasn’t “essentially tied with 5 other QBs if you only remove his weakest stretch of games” he was the 3rd best QB from week 5 on. That’s a big difference. Nothing is removed from that point on and as another poster pointed out it’s not even his weakest stretch. It’s not just cherry picking games like you seem to imply. 

Looking at fantasy points for an entire season and just looking at where someone finished at the end is foolish. Everyone that has played fantasy anything seriously should know that. Saying “Jackson finished 10th so he isn’t worth taking that high” vs “Jackson overcame a sluggish start and returned to form” isn’t just a different opinion. It’s flat out wrong. 

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

Murray and Wilson didnt have an outrageous ADP last season. He barely finished ahead of the likes of Tannehill, Brady, Herbert so lets not pretend he wasnt a huge disappointment. last season.

Im not justifying his outrageous draft price of 2020 I’m explaining why he’s probably a value in 2021 at his current price. Like I said in an earlier post. The 341 points he put up in only 15 games woulda been at worst the qb3 in years 2012-2019. 2020 was a major surge in QB fantasy points across the board... except for Lamar lol he took a step back from the greatest QB fantasy season in history. 

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Looking at fantasy points for an entire season and just looking at where someone finished at the end is foolish. Everyone that has played fantasy anything seriously should know that. Saying “Jackson finished 10th so he isn’t worth taking that high” vs “Jackson overcame a sluggish start and returned to form” isn’t just a different opinion. It’s flat out wrong. 

Feels like this happens too much.. or like I said earlier ppl just remember the early season. All ya keep hearing about is how great Dak was and blah blah blah. His best fantasy season was 348 points.. whopping 7 points better than Lamar on a “down year” in 15 games.
 

But even if you wanna look at the season end results ya really need to consider Lamar missed a game due to covid. If he plays that game and scores 30 points like he’s done 11 times in the last 2 years then all the sudden he’s the qb5

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On 5/20/2021 at 8:21 PM, Evincar said:

Murray and Wilson didnt have an outrageous ADP last season. He barely finished ahead of the likes of Tannehill, Brady, Herbert so lets not pretend he wasnt a huge disappointment. last season.

Normally after winning the MVP the following yr is a "dissapointment". He's still (for now) the best running QB in the league just got a WR rnd 1 in the draft and and snapped up Watkins in free agency. Oh also last yr he was being drafted in round 2-3 where as this yr im seeing 5-7..  Sign me up.

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I can’t think of a historically great season for a QB that didn’t result in statistical regression the following year. Mahomes sharply regressed statistically from 2018 to 2019 even when you account for the fact that he missed two games. 

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1 hour ago, Deuce1042 said:

I can’t think of a historically great season for a QB that didn’t result in statistical regression the following year. Mahomes sharply regressed statistically from 2018 to 2019 even when you account for the fact that he missed two games. 

this is why I think you gotta fade guys like kyler Murray and josh Allen this added with the current Rodgers and Watson situations I think lamar is easily the QB2 right now. 

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No way hes over kyler, cardinals have no rbs, added weapons, have way way way more firepower than baltimore, play in a softer def division (seattle was like the worst of all time last year), play in a division where he will have to throw more, and his coach loves to run a ton of plays and throw period.

 

Although I love him at 3 and if he's there at 5/6 turn in 4 pt per td leagues he's all mine. As long as no other wr/rbs I love are there. 

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

No way hes over kyler, cardinals have no rbs, added weapons, have way way way more firepower than baltimore, play in a softer def division (seattle was like the worst of all time last year), play in a division where he will have to throw more, and his coach loves to run a ton of plays and throw period

I think ppl overestimate kyler Murray’s passing ability. Don’t get me wrong he’s great. But he made his fantasy money running the ball. He only had 3900 passing yards and 26 TDs. I agree that With all those weapons and that offensive minded coach that loves to pass it ya think he would have more passing stats but the 800 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs is what bolstered his fantasy season. Is this repeatable? Idk it’s a really great year usually ppl take a step back after a really great year. 

wentz did, mahomes did, Lamar did.. 
 

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9 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

No way hes over kyler, cardinals have no rbs, added weapons, have way way way more firepower than baltimore, play in a softer def division (seattle was like the worst of all time last year), play in a division where he will have to throw more, and his coach loves to run a ton of plays and throw period.

 

Although I love him at 3 and if he's there at 5/6 turn in 4 pt per td leagues he's all mine. As long as no other wr/rbs I love are there. 

Alright i'm going to stop you on the division thing...

Baltimore division allowed 24 PPG and 351 YPG between the 3 teams other than Baltimore. For the NFCW, it's 22 PPG allowed and 325 YPG allowed outside the Cardinals.

Two more things to consider:

1) Your Seattle claim is misinformed. I don't even know what worst of all time means considering they finished in the top half in points allowed and weren't even bottom half in yards allowed. That's really weird for an all time bad defense... Once they made changes to their defensive line and got fairly healthy the defense was above average. 

2) The Niners were the most injured team on defense in the league last season by far. Their defense last year was more of a middle of the pack unit when they should be a top 5 unit again this season when healthy.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Alright i'm going to stop you on the division thing...

Baltimore division allowed 24 PPG and 351 YPG between the 3 teams other than Baltimore. For the NFCW, it's 22 PPG allowed and 325 YPG allowed outside the Cardinals.

Two more things to consider:

1) Your Seattle claim is misinformed. I don't even know what worst of all time means considering they finished in the top half in points allowed and weren't even bottom half in yards allowed. That's really weird for an all time bad defense... Once they made changes to their defensive line and got fairly healthy the defense was above average. 

2) The Niners were the most injured team on defense in the league last season by far. Their defense last year was more of a middle of the pack unit when they should be a top 5 unit again this season when healthy.

Seattle pass def was god awful last year in terms of total passing yards allowed, total points was not a metric I was using. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/10/12/seahawks-defense-on-pace-to-shatter-nfl-record-for-most-yards-allowed/

 

With that being said, I looked at Baltimores schedule and its not so tough overall, but still it doesn't discount all the other points to making kyler superior.

FOR ME

1. Mahommes

2. Kyler

3. Josh Allen

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Wilson

6. Dak

7. Rodgers

(5-7) are interchangeable

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37 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Seattle pass def was god awful last year in terms of total passing yards allowed, total points was not a metric I was using. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/10/12/seahawks-defense-on-pace-to-shatter-nfl-record-for-most-yards-allowed/

 

With that being said, I looked at Baltimores schedule and its not so tough overall, but still it doesn't discount all the other points to making kyler superior.

FOR ME

1. Mahommes

2. Kyler

3. Josh Allen

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Wilson

6. Dak

7. Rodgers

(5-7) are interchangeable

BALT's schedule is actually tied with PIT as THE most difficult schedule.

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4 hours ago, Woochu9 said:

BALT's schedule is actually tied with PIT as THE most difficult schedule.

Is that based on other teams win/loss from 2020 or on pts allowed because a competitive game means more throwing

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5 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Are we worried the rushing from Lamar nose dives? I think it’s in his DNA, but they are saying they want him to rush less...Lamar if you reading, keep running homey!

They might call less designed runs but you can’t have a tiger change it’s stripes. This year If Baltimore never called a single designed run play for lamar he would still have over 100 rushes on scrambles cuss they guy makes plays.

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5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

They might call less designed runs but you can’t have a tiger change it’s stripes. This year If Baltimore never called a single designed run play for lamar he would still have over 100 rushes on scrambles cuss they guy makes plays.

Yep. More emphasis on passing hurts Dobbins and Edwards - it won’t materially hamper Lamar’s rushing. 

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