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Forgive me if a thread already exists. Jk looked pretty explosive last yr on limited touches. Gus the bus is back and will still get touches. Balt supposedly wants to throw more-we shall see. Currently, I’m seeing jk go around the 24-30 overall range. Value? I think this offense has some positive regression this year and I think jk will be a late rd1 guy next yr. 

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I think he's a great player and has the talent to be an RB1 if opportunity aligns.......but Lamar dominates the box score here a bit too much for my liking.  I'm carrying Dobbins for sure in an auction keeper but my expectations are mid range RB2.    In a redraft, i'm ok with him as a third round pick, but I'd be nervous if he was my second best player, so no earlier than that.  

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57 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I think he's a great player and has the talent to be an RB1 if opportunity aligns.......but Lamar dominates the box score here a bit too much for my liking.  I'm carrying Dobbins for sure in an auction keeper but my expectations are mid range RB2.    In a redraft, i'm ok with him as a third round pick, but I'd be nervous if he was my second best player, so no earlier than that.  

Don't forget that Gus Edwards probably gets 10 carries per game too. It's basically a 4 headed RBBC, even though one RB is actually a QB.

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Posted (edited)

JK is gonna be the Top RB on the most run heavy team in the NFL. Don't overthink it, Ingram was a top 10 RB his first yr in Baltimore and i won't be surprised if JK finishes the yr as a top 10 RB IN 2021. 

Gus was there with Ingram so was Lamar they RUN THE BALL MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE NFL they have enough carries to go for all three.. Lamar/JK have the potentialto be a league winning Stack combo ala Lamar/Ingram.

Edited by NInsko
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2 hours ago, NInsko said:

JK is gonna be the Top RB on the most run heavy team in the NFL. Don't overthink it, Ingram was a top 10 RB his first yr in Baltimore and i won't be surprised if JK finishes the yr as a top 10 RB IN 2021. 

Gus was there with Ingram so was Lamar they RUN THE BALL MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE NFL they have enough carries to go for all three.. Lamar/JK have the potentialto be a league winning Stack combo ala Lamar/Ingram.


I agree with almost all of this. JK is a stud and obviously gonna get plenty of carries.

Now I know non believers will say Ingram was a top 10 because of touchdowns.. and not rushing TDs. Ingram barely broke 1000 rushing yards and only 10 rushing TDs. The added 5 receiving TDs is what pushes him into the top 10 list which is all true and I doubt JK will get 5 receiving TDs. And while I’m not saying it’s a lock but it is absolutely within the realm of possibilities that Dobbins gets 13-15 total TDs while rushing for 1100-1200 yards because he is on the most run heavy team in the league that scores a lot of touchdowns and he is also their passing game back as well. 
 

In his rookie year he had 800 yards 9 TDs on just 134 rushes it absolutely can happen. If he gets 250 rushes.. he could be a league winner 

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I know they're certainly going to try to throw more and this could help Dobbins, but I also note this fact.  His coming out party was the 11/1 game against the Steelers.   Including that game, his next 10 total (including the WC vs Titans), he totalled just 11 targets.       

Will those numbers improve?  Probably, but it remains a risk.   If you've got a running back who has another back sharing a workload, and he doesn't get targets, you need a TD for him to pay off.    I do think 10 TD's is easy to get to in this offense, but I'm feeling like there will be a few duds.   

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9 hours ago, NInsko said:

Don't overthink it, Ingram was a top 10 RB his first yr in Baltimore and i won't be surprised if JK finishes the yr as a top 10 RB IN 2021.

He was top 10 RB on a team that scored 531 points, and the fluky 5 receiving TDs helped a lot. He still only finished as the RB10 which kind of shows the limited upside JK has. JK is a stud but his two biggest questions are his competition for GL carries and his receiving work.

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18 minutes ago, Evincar said:

He was top 10 RB on a team that scored 531 points, and the fluky 5 receiving TDs helped a lot. He still only finished as the RB10 which kind of shows the limited upside JK has. JK is a stud but his two biggest questions are his competition for GL carries and his receiving work.

He finishes as the RB8 in half PPR. In only 15 games. All the starters were benched the last week of the year.  
 

JK is better now than a 30 year old Mark Ingram. He probably won’t get 5 receiving TDs but I’d imagine every other statistic will be better. 

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2 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

He finishes as the RB8 in half PPR. In only 15 games. All the starters were benched the last week of the year.  
 

JK is better now than a 30 year old Mark Ingram. He probably won’t get 5 receiving TDs but I’d imagine every other statistic will be better. 

2019 Ingram only moves up a 1-2 spots in half PPR. Hardly a difference. It doesnt really matter if he's better than a 30 year old Ingram. His role will be exactly the same. Maybe he gets 5.5 YPC instead of Ingram's 5.0. Dobbins is going to be great but expectations need to be tempered. He has low RB1 upside. His production will be probably be closer to Chris Carson than he is to the other sophomore RBs.

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I don’t think we’re giving enough credence to the idea that LJ’s rushing attempts may decrease in 2021. Not necessarily a massive decrease, but a potentially a significant decrease.

I understand that we’re making assumptions based on the what we’ve seen in the past, but in my opinion there’s good reason to suspect things may change a bit in 2021. Not a night and day type change, but the beginning of a shift that sees fewer carries for LJ and a bigger role for Dobbins than what some are expecting. 
 

I think Dobbins is the type of player that can be the centerpiece of an offense, and It makes sense to use him that way while transitioning LJ to a more traditional QB role. They’ve already said they want LJ to pass more, and I think we may see that manifest itself  in more check downs to the dynamic and explosive Dobbins. 
 

I think the Ravens coaching staff has to be asking themselves an obvious question at this point. “Why should we keep running our franchise QB all over the field when we’ve got JK Dobbins?” The answer is equally obvious- they shouldn’t. I think Dobbins is going to have a much larger role than many are expecting and it makes all the sense in the world. 

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I think the skepticism around JK would be different if he didn’t play behind Mark Ingram half the year and was the starter day one. 

 

Plus I’m wondering if Lamar talked to Harbaugh and Greg behind closed doors because their tune changed quite a bit when it comes to their offense and EDC went out and drafted two receivers, brought in Sammy Watkins and added some pass blocking OL. LJ probably doesn’t wanna run the ball 160 times anymore so JK is probably gonna get more carries. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Evincar said:

2019 Ingram only moves up a 1-2 spots in half PPR. Hardly a difference. It doesnt really matter if he's better than a 30 year old Ingram. His role will be exactly the same. Maybe he gets 5.5 YPC instead of Ingram's 5.0. Dobbins is going to be great but expectations need to be tempered. He has low RB1 upside. His production will be probably be closer to Chris Carson than he is to the other sophomore RBs.

I think it does matter if JK is better than 30 year old Mark Ingram especially since they have the same role. That would mean that you would expect at least the Mark Ingram production and if you believe JK is vastly more talented like I do then you expect more production out of the same role. But I’ll agree with you and say almost all the other sophomore backs have higher ceilings than dobbins does in this offense. 
 

3 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

think the Ravens coaching staff has to be asking themselves an obvious question at this point. “Why should we keep running our franchise QB all over the field when we’ve got JK Dobbins?” The answer is equally obvious- they shouldn’t. I think Dobbins is going to have a much larger role than many are expecting and it makes all the sense in the world. 

I believe part of the Reason they run him so much “besides the fact he’s the greatest running QB ever” was that he was also their only speed guy too. Fear of him getting the edge prevents defenses from just stacking the line with 350 pounders and having linebackers shoot gaps. Ingram wasn’t a real threat of this Edwards sure ain’t. Andrews is great but not a field stretcher by any means and Hollywood is fast but he doesn’t dictate what defenses do like tyreek or DJax or Hilton did. So fear of Lamar getting the corner made defenses play all 53 yards side line to sideline. 

Edited by Stonej14
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4 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I don’t think we’re giving enough credence to the idea that LJ’s rushing attempts may decrease in 2021. Not necessarily a massive decrease, but a potentially a significant decrease.

I understand that we’re making assumptions based on the what we’ve seen in the past, but in my opinion there’s good reason to suspect things may change a bit in 2021. Not a night and day type change, but the beginning of a shift that sees fewer carries for LJ and a bigger role for Dobbins than what some are expecting. 
 

I think Dobbins is the type of player that can be the centerpiece of an offense, and It makes sense to use him that way while transitioning LJ to a more traditional QB role. They’ve already said they want LJ to pass more, and I think we may see that manifest itself  in more check downs to the dynamic and explosive Dobbins. 
 

I think the Ravens coaching staff has to be asking themselves an obvious question at this point. “Why should we keep running our franchise QB all over the field when we’ve got JK Dobbins?” The answer is equally obvious- they shouldn’t. I think Dobbins is going to have a much larger role than many are expecting and it makes all the sense in the world. 

Important to remember Baltimore had a first round grade on Dobbins. He and LJ are the focal points of this offense next year.

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These projections and clip are from the SBNation article i linked below. It's a "Homer" article 100% but some info and a lil projections are always good to add to the debate.

" He had 152 total touches (134 rush / 18 rec) as a rookie who played very sparingly in the first-half of the year. In 2021, Dobbins should push for 200+ touches (180+ rush / 20+ rec) and with his elite yards per touch efficiency (6.1 YPT), 1,300 total yards and 10 scores is definitely in the cards. Get pumped up Ravens flock, that big heart #27 has is ready to roll and become the driving force on offense for the Ravens this season. "

https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2021/5/26/22452263/the-heartbeat-of-the-ravens-offense-j-k-dobbins-lamar-jackson-gus-edwards

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Who are the RBs Y’all would take in front of dobbins? Obliviously the stud RB1s.. But who else. He slides down my rankings a lot further than I thought. 

Im thinking I would go something like 

Akers

mixon

eckeler

Najee 

CEH

Gibson

Carson

dobbins

swift (for now.. likely to switch with dobbins)

 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Who are the RBs Y’all would take in front of dobbins? Obliviously the stud RB1s.. But who else. He slides down my rankings a lot further than I thought. 

Im thinking I would go something like 

Akers

mixon

eckeler

Najee 

CEH

Gibson

Carson

dobbins

swift (for now.. likely to switch with dobbins)

 

I see you have never owned Mixon before.. J.K 🤣🤣

I'd have Dobbins ranked after Najee and over CEH at the moment with Mixon and Ekler lower. 

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5 hours ago, NInsko said:

I see you have never owned Mixon before.. J.K 🤣🤣

I'd have Dobbins ranked after Najee and over CEH at the moment with Mixon and Ekler lower. 

So you're saying, you'd rank these guys:

Najee

Dobbins

CEH

Mixon

Ekeler

That is completely backwards, IMO. I would go the exact opposite order.

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45 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

So you're saying, you'd rank these guys:

Najee

Dobbins

CEH

Mixon

Ekeler

That is completely backwards, IMO. I would go the exact opposite order.

In standard scoring although the ordering of the top 3 is a work in progress. I'd even toss in Gibson. Ekler i was never sold on or a fan 9f so i'm biased, they drafted a SOLID RB this yr and J.Kelly last yr. Mixon 100% could do better than all of these guys but after owning him twice his rookie yr and last i'd rather have someone else. He's inconsistant and injury prone I see his worth but bake those two factors into his ADP. 

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8 hours ago, NInsko said:

In standard scoring although the ordering of the top 3 is a work in progress. I'd even toss in Gibson. Ekler i was never sold on or a fan 9f so i'm biased, they drafted a SOLID RB this yr and J.Kelly last yr. Mixon 100% could do better than all of these guys but after owning him twice his rookie yr and last i'd rather have someone else. He's inconsistant and injury prone I see his worth but bake those two factors into his ADP. 

I'm thinking PPR, so maybe that makes more sense for standard.

Najee is way too high regardless. Dude has the worst run-blocking O-line in the NFL. The Steelers go whole stretches of games where they completely abandon the run and have Ben throw 50 times per game. Plus, he's a rookie who we've never seen take a single NFL snap. No way I'm taking him over any of those proven guys in better situations. 

Also feel like CEH over Dobbins due to situation, unless the Chiefs add another meaningful back.

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19 hours ago, NInsko said:

I see you have never owned Mixon before.. J.K 🤣🤣

I'd have Dobbins ranked after Najee and over CEH at the moment with Mixon and Ekler lower. 

Lol you’re right I’ve never had the burden of being a mixon owner but the guy already has had multiple 1300 total yard seasons and according to your “homer” article thsts what they project dobbins to have this year. 
 

a lot of guys can get 1300 total yards and a lot more receptions. 
 

CEH has 1100 last year in 13 games and looks to have 40+ receptions as he is supposedly going to be more involved in the pass game.

eckler had 900 yards in 10 games and looks to be a safe 50+ receptions guy

And as I said already mixon has two 1300 yard seasons and two 40 receptions season on a team that looks to be down a lot and pass a lot. 
 

In standard the TDs might make dobbins a better play but in any PPR format I think they’ll have enough receptions to counter the lack of TDs they may have but who knows 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Lol you’re right I’ve never had the burden of being a mixon owner but the guy already has had multiple 1300 total yard seasons and according to your “homer” article thsts what they project dobbins to have this year. 
 

a lot of guys can get 1300 total yards and a lot more receptions. 
 

CEH has 1100 last year in 13 games and looks to have 40+ receptions as he is supposedly going to be more involved in the pass game.

eckler had 900 yards in 10 games and looks to be a safe 50+ receptions guy

And as I said already mixon has two 1300 yard seasons and two 40 receptions season on a team that looks to be down a lot and pass a lot. 
 

In standard the TDs might make dobbins a better play but in any PPR format I think they’ll have enough receptions to counter the lack of TDs they may have but who knows 

Bro I hear you. Mixon is legit and has done it in the past, that's how I talked myself into him last yr. Like he's ok but take a look at his game logs https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/games/joe-mixon.php. you can go back to see every game he's played and missed ; )

Last yr encapsultes what he is as a player to me as a whole. He had a few ok games nothing special. 

Then has a MONSTER game followed up with a decent game and injury. So his overall stats look good but he's getting them in bulk by having moneter games with average play in between. If the guys i want are gone i'll take Mixon and like i said before it's possible he smashes his ADP but i'll pass for a guy more consistant and on the field 

Edited by NInsko
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  • 2 weeks later...

You can put me in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp...

Ravens coach John Harbaugh said involving running backs in the passing game has been "one of the main points of emphasis" in the offseason.

Harbaugh then said that catching passes should be a big part of J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill's toolkits. He also noted that Dobbins has made strides as a pass-catcher this offseason. As a rookie, Dobbins led the Baltimore runners in receptions but that only equated to 18 catches. Dobbins also caught at least 20 passes in all three of his seasons at Ohio State. Like most quarterbacks who can take on an entire defense with their legs, checking down to running backs has never been Lamar Jackson's thing. However, more plays designed specifically to target Baltimore's running backs would help vary their playbook and increase the fantasy value of Dobbins. For now, Dobbins remains a solid RB2 option but the presence of Gus Edwards will keep his rushing role in check.

Source: Jeff Zrebiec on Twitter

Jun 8, 2021, 3:29 PM ET

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Posted (edited)

Rotoworld is convinced this dude is an RB2. I think he is going to surprise a lot of nonbelievers and be a solid RB1 this year. To me, the concerns about Gus the Bus are overblown. He's the perfect complement to JK, but JK is about to go Ray Rice 2.0 but even better. 

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