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J.k. Dobbins 2021 Outlook


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1 minute ago, timexsocialclub said:

Rotoworld is convinced this dude is an RB2. He is going to surprise a lot of nonbelievers. I think the concerns about Gus the Bus are overblown. He's the perfect complement to JK, but JK is about to go Ray Rice 2.0 but even better. 

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that's a classic "HOSPITAL BALL" 🏥 if i ever saw one. 

if LJ hangs him out to dry like that when the real ammo starts flying, well ... no bueno. 

i wish this kid all the best, but Gus/LJ will cap him juuuuuuust enough to be no more than an RB2 when it's all said & done. 

🛀

 

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

that's a classic "HOSPITAL BALL" 🏥 if i ever saw one. 

if LJ hangs him out to dry like that when the real ammo starts flying, well ... no bueno. 

i wish this kid all the best, but Gus/LJ will cap him juuuuuuust enough to be no more than an RB2 when it's all said & done. 

🛀

 

Let's just hope that LJ didn't throw that one! Check out the hops on my boy though. Here's to hoping JK picks up where he left off last season once Harbaugh started feeding him. 

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Love the talent dislike the situation.

Lamar runs it, Gus runs it, JK runs it. That’s a lot of rushes for a team who drafted all WRs and say they want to pass more. 
 

 

Passing more means fewer rushes for LJ, and there’s a very good chance that “passing more” means simple screens and dump offs to Dobbins. JK is the kind of RB that can be the centerpiece of an offense and they know it. Makes all the sense in the world to get him involved as much as possible while reducing  injury risk to LJ in the process.

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/news-notes-j-k-dobbins-will-be-more-involved-in-passing-game

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/ravens/.amp/news/ravens-dobbins060921

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4 hours ago, timexsocialclub said:

Let's just hope that LJ didn't throw that one! Check out the hops on my boy though. Here's to hoping JK picks up where he left off last season once Harbaugh started feeding him. 

That could've been one on one drills and JK high pointed the ball. 

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For what's its worth, Rotoworld NBC Sports EDGE just published an article about QBs who rush a lot and RB target share.  Here's what they said for Dobbins:

QB

RB target share 

TE target share

WR target share 

Lamar Jackson

15.53%

35.12%

49.12%

Kyler Murray 

19.07%

11.4%

69.51%

Josh Allen

14.19%

14.04%

71.77%

Dak Prescott

16.57%

19.97%

63.46%

Deshaun Watson 

14.01%

18.13%

67.86%

Russell Wilson

21.41%

26.11%

52.5%

Jalen Hurts 

13.51%

29.72%

45.94%

Taysom Hill

19.83%

18.18%

57.85%

 

All this recent chatter about J.K. Dobbins seeing more pass-catching work -- which will surely continue into the summer -- doesn’t square with Jackson’s targeting of running backs. The running back’s role in Greg Roman’s system would have to change dramatically if Dobbins were to see any noticeable gains as a pass catcher in what should remain a run-heavy Baltimore offense. Only Titans backs had fewer receptions in 2020 than Baltimore backs. In 2019, the Ravens were 30th in running back catches. It’s simply not part of their offense, and certainly not a priority for Jackson. Sure, Dobbins led Baltimore’s backfield in pass routes, targets, and receptions. That didn’t mean a whole lot. Barring a wholesale change in the RB’s role, we can’t draft Dobbins with any hope that he can double or triple his catch total (18) from a year ago. 

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/offseason-research/rushing-quarterbacks-impact-running-backs

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Hurts and Hill's numbers above don't add up to 100% and it really bothers me.   

Passes to themselves? Balls batted back that ended up being targets to a QB??

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Hurts and Hill's numbers above don't add up to 100% and it really bothers me.   

 

4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Passes to themselves? Balls batted back that ended up being targets to a QB??

Rotoworld is a betting site now, no need to worry about things like that.

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19 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Passes to themselves? Balls batted back that ended up being targets to a QB??

I'm thinking maybe QB spikes or clear throwaways with no intended target?

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2 minutes ago, trilly said:

I'm thinking maybe QB spikes or clear throwaways with no intended target?

But if there's no intended target, how could it be part of the target share? *Head Explodes*

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Passing more means fewer rushes for LJ, and there’s a very good chance that “passing more” means simple screens and dump offs to Dobbins. JK is the kind of RB that can be the centerpiece of an offense and they know it. Makes all the sense in the world to get him involved as much as possible while reducing  injury risk to LJ in the process.

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/news-notes-j-k-dobbins-will-be-more-involved-in-passing-game

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/nfl/ravens/.amp/news/ravens-dobbins060921

Love. This take. Seriously tho, Lamar still gonna get his on the ground, so will 🚌 Edwards..maybe—just maybe…Lamar’s legs are what makes Jk’s touches Uber efficient. That efficiency obviously takes a hit this yr. Will volume make up for it? I guess that’s the debate. Personally, I’m loving jk as my rb2. Who wouldn’t? 

Edited by Whitecloud0101
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they average roughly 37 rushes per game thus far in the LJ era.

the LJ/Bus totes are remarkably consistent - there is avg of 19 per game between those two ... which leaves 18 on the table. 

toss in a few misc carries by Hill, FB, etc ... that leaves about 14 attempts left over for Private Dobbs. 

that would slot him in the vicinity of 240 carries this year, all things being equal ... there are 72 vacated carries from the Ingram departure to account for - Dobbs had 134 last year whilst getting the tootsies wet and developing trust from the staff. 

so, let's extrapolate those totes at 5 yds per, which would equal 1,200 in the 17 game season. 

these are the ceiling #s imo, based strictly on the rudimentary #s that reflect the stout consistency of the RatBoids rushing attack ... and on an injury free, 5 yds per wish list.

if you really wanna blow it up to the absolute highest expectations, then give him the 6 ypc he averaged last year ... which would net him 1,440 based on the above specs ... or split it down the middle at 5.5 for 1,320. 

i would park my car in the 5 ypc camp - don't @me.

for chips n' giggles, Ingram's 2019 represents the highest carries for a rb thru this time at 202 (15 games) - which was 13.5 per, so right in the expected range of what the #s bandied about in this post would suggest. 

this does not factor in any passing game work, the Roman era has seen a scant 3 per game aimed at the position ... ergo, anything thru the air is some seriously sweet and chunky gravy. 

they avg 22.5 rushing TDs with LJ ... Dobbs had 9 last year on the ground ... projections would portend an easy waltz into the double digits - sky's the limit if he clicks the way this should shake out. 

yes, a very potent chap to slot in at your magick foosball rb2, no doubt 'bout that ... at all. 

🍭

 

 

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He's a mid range to back end RB2 with RB1 upside if certain things break his way.

Also, not that I see TGII as much of a threat, but keep an eye on this...

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports free agent RB Todd Gurley is visiting the Ravens on Thursday.

Detroit's coaching staff talked as if Gurley was already negotiating a deal with the team at their most recent press conference, so this news comes as a bit of a shock. Even so, Baltimore's offense is obviously a much better destination than Detroit's as a launching point at this stage of the veteran's career. D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams would be the real winners if the Ravens land Gurley, who turns 27 in August.

Jun 10, 2021, 6:48 AM ET
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Gurley signing with Baltimore is as much, or more, of a pipe dream than Gurley signing with Detroit.  Sheesh!  When are we going to be able to stop reading about Gurley?  

Dobbins is not going to be Marshall Faulk because Gus will take some of the load, but Dobbins would be amazing as a fantasy team's RB2.  And if Dobbins is your flex, I pity your opponents.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 6/10/2021 at 7:21 PM, BrianM said:

I mean, nobody should fear Gurley outperforming a young talented back.............but he very well could have some OC giving him 120 touches despite that.  

I wouldn't fear Gurley outperforming him but I would sure fear Gurley getting the passing work.    If they signed Gurley, that would be enough for me to pass on Dobbins at his current ADP.   

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7 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

Since the start of 2018, a total of 70 RBs have gotten at least 150 carries. Among this group, J.K. Dobbins ranks...
* 2nd in EPA per carry
* 2nd in yards per carry
* 3rd in 1st downs per carry
* 4th in success rate

Oh Yeah Raised Eyebrows GIF - OhYeah RaisedEyebrows Smile - Discover &  Share GIFs | Raised eyebrow, Funny reaction pictures, Reactions meme

And then I see this and I'm back on board.  

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