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I like it when this debate is fairly wide open, and there look to be a number of contenders this year who will have strong cases. Since it's way early yet and too soon to tell how it will shake out, I want to track the early progress of a few of the front runners and see where they wind up. Who will drop out of contention first? Who in the back of the pack can emerge? Will it be a one, two or three horse race? Here's a few notes:

Jacob deGrom-40 IP, 65 K, 3 W, 0.68 ERA/0.60 WHIP; his injury and lower volume will make this interesting. He is 100% capable of making this a moot debate. Let's say for the sake of argument his ERA will rise above 1.5 to at least make it a debate. Other top contenders-Trevor Bauer-63.2 IP, 5 W, 88 K; 1.98 ERA/0.77 WHIP; he will have a strong case at the end of the year based on the volume and potentially leading in WAR among pitchers. 

Yu Darvish-54.2 IP, 4 W, 69 K, 1.81 ERA/0.88 WHIP; he's right behind Bauer and it would be nice to see them engage in a full season battle involving Twitter back and forth for the Cy Young after being 1st and 2nd in last year's abbreviated race.

I'm going to put forth one other name currently in this debate which is Jack Flaherty, currently sitting with 8 Wins through 53.1 IP and an ERA of 2.53/0.99 with 55 ks. Although it is very early, he certainly seems on a path to 20+ wins. I know the Wins debate makes people mad, but if Flaherty were to do something crazy like win 24 games of course he'll have his supporters. Even winning 20 in this day and age is worthy of top 4 consideration, and ask Rick Porcello if voters still care about the statistic.

But I mention him because, although those numbers are good, I'm sure anyone would look at the numbers of Woodruff (2 W, 65k in 57 IP, 1.58 ERA/0.74 WHIP), Gausman (4 W, 67K/59.2IP, 1.66/0.80), Rogers (6 W, 65K/51.2 IP, 1.74/1.05) and Burnes (2 W, 67K, 40.2 IP 1.79/0.62) and say they are better candidates. I didn't even mention Scherzer. Julio Urias, Zach Wheeler, Freddy Peralta are all having monster years too, and what if Joe Musgrove throws another no-hitter lol? Not to mention what if Hader just strikes everyone out and gives up a sub 1 ERA/.5 WHIP for the season. It just seems like so many guys are having special seasons in the Senior Circuit right now that its bound to be a great debate. Let's get some OTR top 10 final Cy standings predictions, and some arguments as to who will ultimately sway voters in their direction and take home the hardware. Of course, the success level of the team is the other factor that comes into consideration for this.  

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If jack keeps up the win pace, he’s absolutely going to have a shot. That’s just the way it is. His numbers are strong as well, and the cardinals are doing good on top of it. He’s definitely a strong candidate, albeit behind degrom and darvish. 

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If the Dodgers let them both loose and work them a bit Walker Buehler and Julio Urias are in the conversation also . Wheeler Phil, Burnes in Mlw, Mustgrove SD, Rogers Miami,Gausman SF some other names to consider. It really comes down to deGrom staying healthy or not  IMO

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

rank now to me

Bauer

Darvish

Rogers

Gausman

Melancon/Hader

 

deGrom doesn’t even make your top 6?

Or Burnes for that matter?

Edited by 89Topps
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3 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Pulling for Darvish. 

I bet on Musgrove after his hot start, but failing that, I'd love Darvish to get it.

Naturally I've been watching Musgrove and I think he goes in the "anything can happen" category.  Like, if he threw another no hitter as mentioned and had a nice lucky streak with wins.

He's had a few bad ones. His last game, which he was unscored upon, was Rockies at home. Not that voters will get that granular, but it doesn't portend much. 

He's also had a lot of short outings. I checked him against Darvish, his teammate, to filter out team philosophy.  Musgrove has gone 5 ip or less fewer 5 times.   Most of them recently.  Darvish has only done so twice. Once at coors (and he gave up 0 runs) and once on his first game of the season. That game actually was a stinker. His worst game since then was 2 runs, which only happened once.

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9 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

rank now to me

Bauer

Darvish

Rogers

Gausman

Melancon/Hader

 

No deGrom? 

And I’ve seen Rogers’ name itt, but I think he fades as the season goes on. And I own him in every mixed league I’m in lol. I just don’t see him keeping it up all year and figure an IP limit and/or fatigue will eventually get to him. 

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Appreciate responses, but again it's kind of pointless to rank based on what's been done so far. You can do it if you like, but I want to see an END of season ranking. If you really think Musgrove is going to stay strong and finish in the top 5, that's a bold statement given the level of competition this year. I do see this mostly as a race between deGrom, Bauer and Yu. All are on very good teams, can put up dominant stretches and have the highest profile in comparison to guys like Woodruff and Burnes, toiling in relative anonymity in Milwaukee. But I am rooting for Flaherty to win 20 plus and make it interesting. There's a lot of baseball left, and these video game numbers are all bound to regress, some perhaps more than others. But if Gausman, for example, kept up this pace, and the Giants made it to the playoffs, he could have a cinderella case on his hands next to the others. There won't be much margin for error, though.

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10 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

rank now to me

Bauer

Darvish

Rogers

Gausman

Melancon/Hader

 

Two relievers but no deGrom or Burnes? Wow

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46 minutes ago, ty5592 said:

Two relievers but no deGrom or Burnes? Wow

It’s just a matter of not pulling for the favorite. I was looking to add a couple guys that nobody saw coming. 
 

I like burnes too he’s actually been the most dominant guy to me but I still look at Traditional stats as well like Ws and svs 

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Posted (edited)

It's pretty ridiculous the numbers Woodruff is putting up. Any other year we'd be talking about how historically great this season is from him. But with the presence of DeGrom, he's probably not even going to sniff any 1st place Cy Young votes.

Edited by NoHablaIngles
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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

It's pretty ridiculous the numbers Woodruff is putting up. Any other year we'd be talking about how historically great this season is from him. But with the presence of DeGrom, he's probably not even going to sniff any 1st place Cy Young votes.

Might not even end up the best pitcher on his own team. The Brewers have arguably 4 of the best 30 pitchers in baseball and they’re a game over .500.

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Gausman is starting to make a true believer out of me, he had another scoreless outing last night and got the W with 9ks in 5 innings of a lopsided win. He's dropping that split finger in there on any count and looks confident in any spot with his stuff, attacking hitters at will. A few times he found himself in jams and threw 3 straight blazing fastballs to stymie any chance of a rally. Its the same way that John Means in the AL is pitching even though no one thinks can keep this up. He can't, at this level, of course-the announcers mentioned his current streak of 1 ER or less  over 10 starts now hasn't been done by a Giants pitcher since Christy Mathewson in 1901. That's an impressive name to be mentioned beside. 

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I think Woodruff is easily #2 right now and has the best chance to give DeGrom a run for his money.  Since it’s so early in the season and ERAs are so low, someone like DeGrom could double his ERA in 1 start (a 4 IP 4 ER start for DeGrom would make Woodruff the ERA leader).  That type of thing could happen to any of the sub 2 ERA guys though. 

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28 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I think Woodruff is easily #2 right now and has the best chance to give DeGrom a run for his money.  Since it’s so early in the season and ERAs are so low, someone like DeGrom could double his ERA in 1 start (a 4 IP 4 ER start for DeGrom would make Woodruff the ERA leader).  That type of thing could happen to any of the sub 2 ERA guys though. 

Yes, no one has really gone ahead and listed their final top 10 projections because it's so early, but I am getting close to making a prediction. I want to see one more outing from deGrom, mainly.

I fully agree that Woodruff has the stuff to keep pace better than Gausman; but these cases are about narratives often, and as mentioned, Woodruff has to lose votes to his excellent teammates. He's also struggling to gets Ws through no fault of his own. But after seeing the Padres run wild on Burnes in his last start I'll give my vote to Woodruff first  (they are like Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling 1/1A right now though). Also the Giants are currently the surprise team in the NL and if they held on to a Wild Card with Gausman leading the way it's going to draw attention. It's kind of clear in each case what needs to happen in order for them to stand out amongst so many excellent seasons. It's just a matter of asking yourself which player has the easiest path to garner the voters attention-so I will rank them on that basis, odds to win ROS.

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Posted (edited)

It's a two horse race between DeGrom and a significant injury to DeGrom.

**Woodruff, Bauer, Scherzer, Darvish, and Gausman have all been sensational, but of that group I really only see Bauer and Scherzer realistically having a shot at 190+ innings, and I think that innings pitched may end up being the deciding factor if it comes down to those guys.    It would be managerial malpractice to allow Woodruff or Gausman to even approach 190 innings (I think both should be given a ton of time off mid-season regardless of health) and Darvish always manages to get hurt and miss a significant number of starts a year.  That leaves Scherzer, who is a tireless competitor and probably feels that this season (and the next one or two) should seal the deal on the Hall of Fame and Bauer, who probably can safely increase his workload to the 190ish region.  

 

Edited by Overlord
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, umphrey said:

The stars did align for Gausman. He has always been high strikeout, low walk, high HR. But in 2021 in SF, no one is hitting HRs. 

Gausman hasn't eclipsed 80 innings over the past four seasons and he hasn't thrown more than 124 innings since 2017 (when he pitched 184).

If the Giants allow Gausman to get his inning count way up there in an attempt to chase the Cy Young or a pennant it would be incredibly irresponsible IMHO.  A prudent workload increase for him would probably put him in the 130-160 range, no?

Edited by Overlord
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  • 1 month later...

I meant to bump this thread during the All-Star break, to see where the debate has shifted in the past few months. I think its pretty close to where we were then-DeGrom is still the front runner, but his injury and volume questions still make this a wide open debate. There is no clear consensus yet who would be the next choice-Woodruff, Gausman, Wheeler and Burnes are still putting up terrific, ace-like numbers. Woody and Wheeler seem to be dealing the most, and I'd have to peg them as the major dark horses right now. I still think Gausman has a very clear path to it, but he needs to right the ship in a hurry. Outside of those guys, a variety of factors-on-field and off-have derailed the candidacies of guys like Peralta, Darvish, Bauer, so I think at the moment there's a pretty clear top 5 in this debate. I might just be overlooking Walker Buehler's numbers entirely, but it feels like he won't get much love from voters. 

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