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Yeah duh that's why it's not an interesting thread. Its his to win and his closest competition Bieber has spot him an early lead, one he isn't likely to relinquish. Rodon's numbers are terrific but they're limiting his volume and he'll regress eventually to around 3 ERA for the season. After that maybe Glasnow and Ryu are good candidates for the top 5, but probably neither would be in the conversation in the top 10 NL candidates (I realize it doesn't work that way but just by comparison, there aren't many choices). 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Yes and Rodon as well by virtue of the no-hitters, but for whatever reason Cole in the AL feels inevitable

True, and though it doesn't matter, it is a lot closer than one would think IMO...  Take away the strikeouts and they are pretty even at the moment...

image.thumb.png.8c2b14f045be1f80fc947f567f64d3c3.png

Edited by posty
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2 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

Yeah duh that's why it's not an interesting thread. Its his to win and his closest competition Bieber has spot him an early lead, one he isn't likely to relinquish. Rodon's numbers are terrific but they're limiting his volume and he'll regress eventually to around 3 ERA for the season. After that maybe Glasnow and Ryu are good candidates for the top 5, but probably neither would be in the conversation in the top 10 NL candidates (I realize it doesn't work that way but just by comparison, there aren't many choices). 

That’s the joke 

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11 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

That’s the joke 

Sometimes I'm too verbose for my own good, but yeah. I mean the debate over him finishing 2nd to Verlander a few years ago seems like its more worth discussing. Its still early but he's as strong a favorite as one can be.

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25 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Sometimes I'm too verbose for my own good, but yeah. I mean the debate over him finishing 2nd to Verlander a few years ago seems like its more worth discussing. Its still early but he's as strong a favorite as one can be.

 

nice use of verbose!

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39 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Do you honestly think he can keep pitching the way he has? 

Probably not...  But I do like seeing new blood doing great things, especially on a team that isn't going to win a ton of games...

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Do you honestly think he can keep pitching the way he has? 

Regards John Means.  Will he?  I don't know if he will but yes he has the talent to do just that.  He was really good in 2019 and really good the last month (half season) last year.  He won't win games in Baltimore any more than King Felix did in Seattle but wins don't matter much for a Cy Young candidate after said King Felix made voters decide to look at quality starts and stuff like that more and not punish a player for being rafted and owned by a bad team.

But Gerrit Cole has the big name buzz playing on a big name team which is going to be seen on way more national broadcasts.  So even if Means pitches as well as him or even slightly better, he still is at a big disadvantage among voters because members of the press are like anyone else in that they remember what they see more than the stats.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, tsh00k said:

Still no love for my dark horse candidate?  Ha

image.png.f2e72c1c6d111621d9070e20dcfef3e4.png

See, John Means should be seriously in the conversation [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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22 hours ago, posty said:

True, and though it doesn't matter, it is a lot closer than one would think IMO...  Take away the strikeouts and they are pretty even at the moment...

image.thumb.png.8c2b14f045be1f80fc947f567f64d3c3.png

The biggest thing about Means winning the AL CY award is that the Yankees player will always win any close race. Means will have to beat him handly to win it. and Ks will be weighted more importent then ground ball or fly outs. a out is a out in pitching thou

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17 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But Gerrit Cole has the big name buzz playing on a big name team which is going to be seen on way more national broadcasts.  So even if Means pitches as well as him or even slightly better, he still is at a big disadvantage among voters because members of the press are like anyone else in that they remember what they see more than the stats.

^ this.

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16 minutes ago, mks said:

The biggest thing about Means winning the AL CY award is that the Yankees player will always win any close race. Means will have to beat him handly to win it. and Ks will be weighted more importent then ground ball or fly outs. a out is a out in pitching thou

And I think just the total opposite. A Yankee will never win a close race. Remember Judge vs Altuve

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Right now
(1) Cole (2) Rodon (3) Means (4) Glasnow (5) Bieber

Rodon’s strand rate, babip, and hr/fb rate aren’t sustainable and I doubt he pitches anywhere near the innings Cole and Bieber will pitch. Means strand rate and hr/fb aren’t sustainable either and he won’t get the strikeouts to match Cole or Bieber.  He’d need to sustain a sub 2 era to beat both imo. Glasnow could win it but can he stay healthy? He’s at 62 innings right now which would tie him for 2nd most innings pitched in a season. He pitched 111 once and 62 (so far) twice. 
Safe bet is it goes (1) Cole (2) Bieber (3) Means (4) Glasnow but I could see one or both Means and Glasnow finishing above Bieber. 

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I think Lance Lynn will finish higher in the voting than Rodon, and either him or Ryu will grab the 5th place spot. I could actually see Means keeping relative pace with Cole and making it a much closer than we expect race, if he goes another month of doing this, you have to believe he's for real. He has the aura and mental makeup of a true MLB ace right now.

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