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2021 June Closer Thread


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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

The Cubs and Brewers are just that absolute perfect sweet spot of a good team with a bad offense that leads to so many sv+hd chances

Huh Cubs have a bad offense? That's news to me

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7 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Grave-digger has really struggled in 2 NSS since coming back from Covid quarantine 

It's possible that he should have pitched more than one inning for rehab in Tacoma. It went as well as the two recent games. 

Edited by itaos
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12 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Grave-digger has really struggled in 2 NSS since coming back from Covid quarantine 

It’s a bit of a sticky situation. Hopefully he’ll get a grip soon. 😉 

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15 minutes ago, meh2 said:

It’s a bit of a sticky situation. Hopefully he’ll get a grip soon. 😉 

I’m holding you to that!

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Neris has an extremely long leash, and got the Girardi vote of confidence today. If he went out and blew two more in a row maybe they'd give him a breather, but there's really nobody better to run away with the gig. 

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The ship formerly known as the Exxon Valdez is still contributing to fantasy rosters, just in a different way, by surrendering a Grand Slam to Randy Arozarena today. It was a reminder for me in looking back on his rollercoaster ride, just how damaging it was that Valdez sat on the bench for about 10 days without pitching before proceeding to go out in the span of 3-4 outings and blowing up the ERA/WHIP of those that held him. Really a worst case scenario, but also in that time span you could have nabbed someone like Hansel Robles, or Tyler Rogers, or someone like that. Using the benefit of hindsight to make a relevant point.

You may be in a similar spot now, holding onto a pitcher who seems 2nd in line and are getting few opportunities  and/or hurting your ratios a bit, or you are finally done with AZ or TOR or CIN, it's a reminder that even in deep leagues, new closers are still going to emerge. So if a decent SP or bench bat option is on the wire, it makes sense as a matter of strategy to shift focus from those truly nightmarish scenarios, like the Orioles. I'm not saying don't invest in Paul Fry or Jake Diekman or JP, just that it's not going to kill you if you move on and one winds up getting a dozen or more saves. You'll still have a chance to find another closer, via wire or the saves trade market in your league, but also be ready to pounce when the first real MLB bullpen trade occurs. 

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On 6/12/2021 at 7:44 PM, AHF said:

Pretty sure you cursed him to the IL.

A bummer, too, because he was having a great season as their setup man in front of an iffy Brad Hand. I wonder who steps up now.

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9 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

The ship formerly known as the Exxon Valdez is still contributing to fantasy rosters, just in a different way, by surrendering a Grand Slam to Randy Arozarena today. It was a reminder for me in looking back on his rollercoaster ride, just how damaging it was that Valdez sat on the bench for about 10 days without pitching before proceeding to go out in the span of 3-4 outings and blowing up the ERA/WHIP of those that held him. Really a worst case scenario, but also in that time span you could have nabbed someone like Hansel Robles, or Tyler Rogers, or someone like that. Using the benefit of hindsight to make a relevant point.

You may be in a similar spot now, holding onto a pitcher who seems 2nd in line and are getting few opportunities  and/or hurting your ratios a bit, or you are finally done with AZ or TOR or CIN, it's a reminder that even in deep leagues, new closers are still going to emerge. So if a decent SP or bench bat option is on the wire, it makes sense as a matter of strategy to shift focus from those truly nightmarish scenarios, like the Orioles. I'm not saying don't invest in Paul Fry or Jake Diekman or JP, just that it's not going to kill you if you move on and one winds up getting a dozen or more saves. You'll still have a chance to find another closer, via wire or the saves trade market in your league, but also be ready to pounce when the first real MLB bullpen trade occurs. 

That's all pretty much how I feel, but in a lot of leagues, the next-in-line is already rostered. For those situations, it really is dire and you have to search the wire high and low and hope you get lucky with somebody. 

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As a Neris owner, I'm not sure I'd consider Girardi's flashing yellow "vote of confidence" a good sign. I mean, the question had to be asked and answered. But it's officially on everyone's radar now.

It may be true that it'll take 2 BS in a row. That's basically DEFCON 2. And honestly, it may be down to 1 if he blows the next one in dramatic fashion.

All that said, I don't need to do it in any of my leagues, but in the more desperate, waiver wire starved, blood for saves leagues, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alvarado get picked up.

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4 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

That's basically DEFCON 2

Remember when Bard was at Defcon 2 and I said not to worry? Same situation here. Yes, another two BS might lead to a demotion, but probably only a temporary one at that. Alvarado walks too many guys, Coonrod has been blown up a bunch lately, and I haven't paid much attention to Bradley, but none of them seem capable of holding the job down. Maybe if they climb into contention they'll try to add a more proven closer, but IMHO Hector is safe barring an injury or acquisition. 

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1 minute ago, swingbatter said:

has anyone heard any update about Ian Kennedy's hamstring? he is eligible to be activated june 16th, but can't find any info if he will come off the IL when first eligible.

Yeah me either, was wondering myself. The annoying thing in these short-term absences, especially with Kennedy a likely trade candidate, is not getting any extra information about their intentions. I'm not sure I'd chase every guy in that bullpen right now, but it would be nice to have an idea who they intend to plug into Kennedy's spot if/when they trade him away. 

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29 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

Remember when Bard was at Defcon 2 and I said not to worry? Same situation here. Yes, another two BS might lead to a demotion, but probably only a temporary one at that. Alvarado walks too many guys, Coonrod has been blown up a bunch lately, and I haven't paid much attention to Bradley, but none of them seem capable of holding the job down. Maybe if they climb into contention they'll try to add a more proven closer, but IMHO Hector is safe barring an injury or acquisition. 

From what I remember, even you were advising people to add Givens back then as a safety measure at some point after Givens was already being added in the more competitive saves leagues. I mean Bard did manage to hang onto the job. But if he hadn't, it would have been way too late for many to grab Givens if they had waited for your go ahead.

In case you still don't get this, level of "worry" isn't really the point here. That depends entirely on the league any particular individual is in (i.e. deep, shallow, NL-only, hypercomptetive for saves, etc.). Nor is the point to pretend to look into a crystal ball and predict absolutely what will happen, which is just kinda silly.

Rather, the point of putting a guy at DEFCON 1 to 5 is to be the first guy to pick up the replacement, which entirely depends on the size/competitiveness of your particular league when it comes to saves.

At this point, it is absolutely time for people who are save starved, NL-only, etc. to start considering who the pick up would be (in this case I would say Alvarado as opposed to Coonrod or Brogdon).

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Personally, there's four factors that influence when to do a pickup:

1. How desparate for saves am I?

2. How shaky is the incumbent?

3. How clear is the likely replacement?     

4. Among the likely replacements, are there legit good pitchers who will help on ratios or is it a pure saves play?

Factor 3 here is not all that favorable in philly, imo, because there's three or maybe even four possibilities (Bradley is lurking too).  So even if you are desparate you have a real chance of not getting replcaement right, or of landing with a part of a committee.   I totally get why someone would pick one of them up now (factor 1 above!) but personally this is a less appealing situation than some which will likely emerge.

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Each manager's situation is different, I guess I'm just more interested in adding speculative closers that can get promoted via trade than a handcuff to someone like Neris who is very secure. I'm not disputing your approach, but maybe we disagree on the Defcon level here-I'd say 3 at best lol. Its an imperfect analogy. But if I had a choice between Alvarado or someone on the Pirates, Cubs, etc. in those NL only leagues, I'd rather speculate there. It's hard to have a crystal ball, for sure. I can't imagine the Mariners won't trade Kendall Graveman away, but have no idea who would become their guy in such an event. I just don't see as many 2nd in line guys right now that are knocking down the door with their performances. 

Edited by Richard Kimble
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