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2021 June Closer Thread


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Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

Yeah.  I mean I would be happy to run him out because he strikes so many guys out.  But tbqh, my answer to this question will depend on his next 3-5 appearances to see how he does with reduced spin rates.  They were down and, well, they were what made Sims elite…

I appreciate the prompt and candid response - ok, let see how he fares.  I didn’t realize he was a substance user, but to be fair it’s not something I’ve tracked for everyone.

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18 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

He is a victim though.  I mean he literally is outperforming every single peripheral on numbers alone.  

3.10 xEra

3.4 FIP

3.74 XFIP
 

even going by the least generous, 3.74 is much better than his current ERA and is ~adequate with his nice strikeout numbers. 

 

The “unfair circumstances” is just gravy on top of that to suggest he should have even better numbers than the peripherals suggest.  You keep discounting every thing I talked about as if it happened only 1 or 2 times but these kinda add up when you’re dealing with the small sample sizes of relievers?  Like 3 innings of extra innings, 1-2 appearances with needing to IBB, 1 appearance in coors, another with rain.  More with runners on base and he has to pitch around guys.  and one I forgot to mention was that he was asked to pitch 2x innings a lot/a ton of stressful situations.  Because the reds suck.  which isn’t really fair of a reliever.  He’s also had to pitch in multiple roles which has been enough of a factor alone to explain sub performance from relievers.  I’m not even mentioning the runners that weren’t inherited by guys like Antone because the peripherals should take that into account.    
 

another thing to note is that a lot of Sims ERA damage comes from like 3-4 outings, which is obviously preferable from the reds perspective than a guy that gives up a run every inning.

this is also to say that I have a lot of confidence in sims going forward as long as the reds don’t keep jerking him around.  The one thing I’m worried about is spin rate because he was definitely using the sticky stuff 

He can underperform his underlying metrics without his situation being unfair. Every RP has to pitch in extras and inherit runners and pitch in the rain.

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1 minute ago, 89Topps said:

He can underperform his underlying metrics without his situation being unfair. Every RP has to pitch in extras and inherit runners and pitch in the rain.

I’m happy we have all previously agreed that both ERA and xERA are not predictive stats.  
 

Let’s see what happens.

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I don't think there's any data that points to Sims being elite, but until they trade for a real closer, they don't have a lot of options. @meh2 showed Antone's spin rates are down a ton in his player thread so his stats could see a notable dropoff even while Sims' spin rates and ratios drop. Who else do they really have? I'm not touching this bullpen in most of my leagues because they have S&H, but in one of my leagues I keep going back to this well and eating the crap ratios, because saves are gold. If you're in a similar league, Sims is still an ugly arm, but he's picking up enough saves to sadly be relevant.

If they're still fighting for the division this time next month, we're undoubtedly going to see them trade for some pieces that will take the job.

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3 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Really considering it..ugghhhh

🤣🤣

I mean, if you need saves badly enough, you've gotta dip your toes in these waters. Just look at it like the Cincinnati situation - you're going to get some ugly ratios along the way. I guess if there's any silver lining to this turd it's that they're probably not going to be trading for any bullpen arms, so it's Soria vs. the rest of the internal options. 

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Wouldn’t be surprised to see Alvarado get a look sooner than later. I’m all for Girardi being as mad as possible all the time, but Neris has been horrid for several weeks now.

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45 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I mean, if you need saves badly enough, you've gotta dip your toes in these waters. Just look at it like the Cincinnati situation - you're going to get some ugly ratios along the way. I guess if there's any silver lining to this turd it's that they're probably not going to be trading for any bullpen arms, so it's Soria vs. the rest of the internal options. 

Just posted the topic over on the bench coach forum, hopefully will get some outside opinions

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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Alvarado get a look sooner than later. I’m all for Girardi being as mad as possible all the time, but Neris has been horrid for several weeks now.

I agree. I added him everywhere he was available. I’m actually surprised Neris has held the job this long. He’s just not good enough for such an important role.

 

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7 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Aroldis Chapman walks in the tying run. Guy has been very bas lately, not crazy to think it has something to do with the sticky substance crack down. 

And now gives up the go ahead run. Brutal stretch. 

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4 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Ian Kennedy...well rested and gets passed over for the save.

Whats up with that? A Kennedy save would've broken a 3 way ties and given me 1.5 points, is he hurt?

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8 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Alvarado get a look sooner than later. I’m all for Girardi being as mad as possible all the time, but Neris has been horrid for several weeks now.

Again remember that Alvarado is their only lefty.  Not just "a" lefty but the "only" lefty.  Also he hasn't been exactly lights out either. I look for "closer by dart throw" short term in Philly.

Since Dombrowski is their GM now look for some whacky trade sooner than later.  He won't wait for the trade deadline if he can find a way to move sooner no matter the cost to the farm.  Dealin' Dom will be offering up the store early for a closer.

Also why is Amir Garrett suddenly having a good week with Cincy? 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

...Dealin' Dom will be offering up the store early for a closer...

Either that or they’ll just sell the whole lot of Neris, Alvarado, Brogdon and/or Coonrod. They can’t do much worse with whoever else is on the roster anyway. 

I mean the NL East is trash. But not even the dumbest GM in the world thinks the Phillies are one closer away from a championship. I mean they have one good player (Wheeler) on the field once every 5 days. Hoskins is their best hitter. Hoskins?! McCutchen is their 3rd best guy (LOL). Even their best fielder (Gregorius) is out indefinitely!

Anyway, whether they buy or sell, the options atm seem to be:

1. Alvarado

2. Brogdon

3. Coonrod

4. Musical gas cans 

Alvarado seems to be the clear speculative add here. Yeah he's the only lefty. But that doesn't really matter when your entire pitching staff and bullpen is basically a dumpster fire. Girardi has used him as a pure setup and not lefty situational guy.

I mean if you absolutely need to add a guy right now and can't wait to see, then I can't see how Alvardo isn't the guy, assuming he isn't already gone. Then again, I guess it's possible this might have been correct:

On 6/14/2021 at 11:07 AM, Richard Kimble said:

Remember when Bard was at Defcon 2 and I said not to worry? Same situation here...

 

Edited by Fiveohnine
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20 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

What do you guy think ARE predictive stats.

FIP and xFIP come to mind immediately for pitchers - I’m sure there are others.

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56 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

What do you guy think ARE predictive stats.

SIERA > xFIP > FIP

From PL:

"That said, at least for these two years, FIP best tracked ERA in the same season by a significant margin. SIERA was most predictive of ERA going forward, but only marginally more so than xFIP, with FIP providing no predictive value over just looking at a pitcher’s prior ERA. However, none of the ERA indicators were particularly predictive of ERA in the following season. The fantasy community longs for something better."

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